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New Renter
2012 Jul 9, 1:31am
A lot of coding jobs have been moved overseas, not to mention that major corporations have been pushing the government for work visas to get cheaper engineers.
Yes I believe that feeds into the pervasive myth of the shortage of scientists (and engineers):
The real shortage is for highly trained and motivated people willing (or simply forced) to work long hours at a frustrating job for little pay. Enter the H1B work visa - you work or back you go!
Then again it's better than graduate school...
but some people are dead serious when they say stuff like that.
Yes I know. Scary isn't it?
but some people are dead serious when they say stuff like that.
Yes I know. Scary isn't it?
It is very scary
Thanks New Renter for the link, I'll be contacting them.
I see alot of jobs and salaries, but are there really openings or just more listings.
Goran_K
2012 Jul 9, 5:33am
Do people really see job stabilization? Unemployment is still higher than the 2009 low when this "recovery" supposedly began, and "total unemployment" is set to go higher if the numbers for July are as weak as expected. June 2012 was the weakest June since the crash began (only 80,000 jobs added).
In fact at 8.2% unemployment, this is the highest rate ever in an election year (14.5% total unemployment).
I'd say there is anything but "stable" job growth, more like stagnant job growth.
The answer depends on your location. There is no bottom in some places and there is an apparent bottom in others.
Choose your spot and you can see the variation.
The town I lived in in CT never had a bubble, and the bubble never popped for example.
OR you can check out places like Cambria CA, Seaside CA, etc.
The answer depends on your location. There is no bottom in some places and there is an apparent bottom in others.
Choose your spot and you can see the variation.
The town I lived in in CT never had a bubble, and the bubble never popped for example.
OR you can check out places like Cambria CA, Seaside CA, etc.
Correct, Real Estate is very local based. I was just looking at a basic whole market.
Also like you said in your area there was not housing bubble. Thats great but now with maybe the current job situation, yeah houses are not inflated but people's purchasing power is now greatly reduced. AkA, housing has to come down to the local wages/ job market
New Renter
2012 Jul 9, 6:40am
I see alot of jobs and salaries, but are there really openings or just more listings.
And THAT is the $100k question!
I think this entire thread was created to bring traffic to the web site listed in the original post.
Ptiemann you just seem mad, because I ask for links, sites anything to back up your claim of all theses jobs and wages. I was using a site to say look at the job situation. Thats why i'm here on patrick.net because I'm interested in what people think of the job/housing market.
You have done nothing to actually back up what you say.
Thats why I'm going to the site New renter and trying to find more details.
I spend time to back up my talk
zman, I am not mad.
If you think the job situation is bad, fine, you are welcome to believe it.
I'm not believing anything, Its not my opinion. Trust me I wish it was just my opinion and I was off the wall. Unfortunately its continual facts.
Agree that site is useful. Looking through a bunch of listing, most are for very low positions and some are good, but require 8 years experience, +++ . If anything that site shows there are jobs but like I was saying, at lower reduced rates, which in return will have an effect on the housing market.
Again no hard feelings, just amazed at where we are today and where people feel they are ( mentally )
zman, are you actually looking for employment in Santa Clara County as a software engineer? I did not realize that from your original post.
Your mess with me, I get it, Hahaha, Hehehe.
I'm not looking for a software engineer job
The link you posted talks about salaries of what you should make.
Nobody cares about that, Lets see the listing of theses jobs and where to apply.
Not for me, for maybe someone on this site that might be looking. If all theses jobs are available lets see them.
You want to take it in that direction fine, Do some good for the viewers of this site.
PS: Your Said - "Since 2011, I get more than one recruiter emailing me each
month".
That means absolutely zero, recruiters will call you no matter what, crap jobs, temp jobs anything.
tatupu70
2012 Jul 9, 9:42am
The link you posted talks about salaries of what you should make.
No--the links shows what people who are working in the field actually do make.
Lets see the listing of theses jobs and where to apply.
I'm not even a software engineer, so there are probably better sites to look at. Others here should be able to show you the best places to look.
But what exactly ARE you looking for? I can post unemployment rate over the last 3 years, but I suspect that won't satisfy you. I can post median income or household income changes over the last 3 years, but, again, I doubt that would satisfy you.
What kind of data are you looking for??
But what exactly ARE you looking for? I can post unemployment rate over the last 3 years, but I suspect that won't satisfy you. I can post median income or household income changes over the last 3 years, but, again, I doubt that would satisfy you.
What kind of data are you looking for??
Now I'm looking for some possible articles/links in regards to all theses high paying jobs.
We are already on 2 different levels if you going to post unemployment rates for me. Current unemployment rate is 8.2 sure great. but lets not talk about the 43 Million on food stamps.
I forgot its because they are working making so much money.
Nothing about this is satisfying to me, I'm just looking at the facts, good or bad. It is what it is.
Just getting some peoples view on how they think its going to affect the housing market and can it recover with low / low paying jobs. Pretty simple...
Enough yapper, we can go round and round forever. :) Have a good rest of the day
tatupu70
2012 Jul 9, 10:39am
Now I'm looking for some possible articles/links in regards to all theses high paying jobs.
That's your problem, I think. Companies don't put out press releases when they hire 10 engineers. Or when they add another shift in the production line(for the most part--maybe a huge auto plant would.)
Here's a new plant, but I'm sure it won't satisfy you either. Your mind appears to be made up.
http://www.npr.org/2012/07/02/156144464/airbus-u-s-plant-would-bring-1-000-jobs-to-alabama
@thomas.wong1986 - I don't know about the $200k for software people ('mid career programmers') but $100k for new people is definitely correct.
In most companies SW engineers top out around $140k, unless they move into a manager position.
Rubish! you gotta have many years of experience and success stories to get to even close to 100K... and like i said above.. your certainly not going to get anywhere near $100K right out of school since your manager had to get his $100K working many years. There are no free rides even in for SW coders.
You get many making $100K thats a HUGE chunk of cash.... your better off moving those jobs elsewhere! and many did! The Payroll records and even SV CEOs can attest that. See 3:00 below
Think this has been discussed many times. 100K+ starting salary probably standard for advanced degree at SF bay area. IT industries have been generous lately, probably a lot of people here also contribute to that by investing in their stock. It never ceases to amaze me how some bay area companies stock skyrocket. Our apartment complex told us if ones makes below $80+k, one would be eligible for low-income housing subsidy (mountain view, San Jose). 100K+ shouldn't be far-fetched. And, if ones tend to stick to one company for 20 years may see their salary stagnate as merit increase might be limited in downtime. Jumping job ( while u still have a job) always bring at least 15% raise, not to mention other perks like sign on bonus, stock options.....
everything
2012 Jul 9, 11:39am
Why do you guys argue, when it is fact that wages and compensation are stagnating. Housing prices are manipulated and localized. Borrowing costs are so low, can't be more obvious.
Patrick
2012 Jul 9, 11:58am
From my own experience and talking to friends, $120K is normal for an experienced programmer near San Francisco or Silicon Valley. Starting programmers can easily get $90K if they have a good degree. I think there is really no upper limit. Depends on how much the company needs you.
Of course most of that money goes to your landlord or the previous owner of the house you buy, because we still do not have a land value tax, but instead tax income from work to punish productive people.
Oh, and yes, the best way to get a raise is to leave your job, or have a very good ability to do so. In fact one of my very first posts on Patrick.net was about exactly that:
JodyChunder
2012 Jul 9, 2:06pm
This is a question for all.
I will be totally honest with you. And hnestly, this takes food of my table to admit it. But NO. It has not. It's not a bubble any more obviously but it has not shit the bed yet like it oughrt to have. OR better to put it this way...it is suffering induced constipation
Seven years from now this will all be dust.
New Renter
2012 Jul 9, 2:08pm
Now I'm looking for some possible articles/links in regards to all theses high paying jobs.
One very important point when using data from sites like salary.com or glassdoor is how the salaries are reported. I once went into an annual review and was laughed out of the room by my CEO when I used salary.com as a benchmark. My sympathetic boss explained that people tend to exaggerate how much they make on such sites. In light of this it may be prudent to knock off 10% or so from the reported salary. The Radford Survey on the other hand is data as reported by HR and is thus the metric by which most SV salaries are set.
JodyChunder
2012 Jul 9, 2:10pm
In light of this it may be prudent to knock off 10% or so from the reported salary.
no sir. this is an insult to prudence. never aim low.
freak80
2012 Jul 9, 2:12pm
Yes we REALLY should revisit that one...
Except now no one, no matter how "progressive", can let property taxes rise. That would cause their property to lose value.
inflection point
2012 Jul 9, 2:15pm
the housing market bottoms every year until the free fall in the winter.
In light of this it may be prudent to knock off 10% or so from the reported salary. The Radford Survey on the other hand is data as reported by HR and is thus the metric by which most SV salaries are set
Correct, pretty much every HR department uses Radford Survey, so what ever some website uses .. is totally ignored. Anyone can log on to these websites and inflate salary info. They are all bogus. Radford has been around for ages.
FortWayne
2012 Jul 10, 12:43am
Housing can't bottom. With interest rate at 0, which is where it is you can't have housing bottom. This is the peak, it's as high as it can be.
You'll see prices decline once interest rates climb. What you don't know is when that will happen.... but for now there is no reason to buy anything. It's a liquidity trap.
Goran_K
2012 Jul 10, 2:10am
When Foreclosure starts are outnumbering actual sales 3 to 1, how can anyone believe there is a housing bottom?
Even though foreclosure starts and sales saw similar monthly increases in May, 11.6 percent and 10 percent respectively, the actual number of foreclosure starts was significantly higher than foreclosure sales. Foreclosure starts numbered 202,707 while foreclosure sales totaled 73,439.
Also, foreclosure inventory maintained historically high levels at 4.14 percent.
Kinda funny you mention interest rates.
I remember back in the 80's, locking into a 10.75% interest rate mortgage and I was thrilled. This was standard rate back in the day, not due to any credit or whatever issues.
Now today we are at 3.5%-4.25% and still lack of demand.
Thanks everyone for your replies. I now realize this is mostly CA site. On average most people from CA. seem to have the same opinion that things are doing ok. Its is kinda funny because when big tech layoffs HP / Cisco, or when you hear like Stockton CA filing for bankruptcy it all affects Cali. Seems like alot of bad data news come out of California but the people feel the happiest.
FortWayne
2012 Jul 10, 3:12am
Now today we are at 3.5%-4.25% and still lack of demand.
And just for some above who may not be completely aware, actual interest rate is 0. Rate you would pay is 0% + inflation + risk premium + very little profit spread.
Rates can't go any lower since banks will have to lose money at that point to loan it.
Interest rates won't rise for no reason, they will rise when the economy is clearly recovering
That is a scary statement.
Goran_K
2012 Jul 10, 3:57am
FAR more distressed homes are being sold through short sale, than foreclosed on. In Phoenix, since 2006, 170,000 short sales have happened, while banks have sold 80,000 bank owned homes. This doesn't even count foreclosure auctions that went to a third party... so this metro has disposed of a quarter million distressed properties for sure, and probably more like 300,000. Someone the other day tried to say the 20,000 foreclosures in process here guaranteed the market would tank, but I don't buy it at all.
That may be true, but I think the point of the article is to show that the Foreclosures, and distressed properties backlog is still growing faster than they are actually being sold. That would indicate that inventory should be growing just by the numbers LPS is presenting instead of falling...
... unless they are being artificially being held off the market which is a running theory on Patrick.net and other housing discussion communities.
freak80
2012 Jul 10, 4:33am
Kinda funny you mention interest rates.
I remember back in the 80's, locking into a 10.75% interest rate mortgage and I was thrilled. This was standard rate back in the day, not due to any credit or whatever issues.
Now today we are at 3.5%-4.25% and still lack of demand.
Meaningless. Utterly meaningless w/o accounting for inflation.
The real interest rate = the nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate.
freak80
2012 Jul 10, 4:39am
If you were able to get a 10.75% interest rate in 1980, for example, that was great. The inflation rate for that year was 13-14%. So your real interest rate would have been negative. It's very unlikely that someone was paying you to borrow money from them, of course.
Which year did you get a 10.75% interest rate?
freak80
2012 Jul 10, 4:42am
More often than not in history, rates and home prices have risen together, than the reverse.
Probably true, since nominal interest rates rise as the inflation rate rises. Real interest rates are what matter.
FortWayne
2012 Jul 10, 4:57am
This is a fine theory, if you prefer your theories completely plucked form thin air, and ignore all historical data...
Interest rates won't rise for no reason, they will rise when the economy is clearly recovering, and inflation is seen as the bigger threat. More often than not in history, rates and home prices have risen together, than the reverse.
Rob historical data suggests that prices drop when rates go up since most people buy into payments they can afford.
If you were able to get a 10.75% interest rate in 1980, for example, that was great. The inflation rate for that year was 13-14%. So your real interest rate would have been negative. It's very unlikely that someone was paying you to borrow money from them, of course.
Which year did you get a 10.75% interest rate?
1980's I don't the exact year, it was a few days ago :)
And like I said I was jumping for joy at 10.75%
tatupu70
2012 Jul 10, 5:16am
Rob historical data suggests that prices drop when rates go up since most people buy into payments they can afford.
No, it most definitely does not. Historical data suggests that there is very little correlation between prices and interest rates.
Full disclosure: I bought a month ago.
Has housing reached a bottom? That's almost impossible to determine but can only be done once prices are clearly rising and probably doing so on a national level. The same as when a peak is reached- when prices start to fall and thus there is a measurable difference.
But I don't think that its not exactly out of line to suggest that we're not in a bursting cycle and instead at the very least things are stagnate to slightly improving. So that would suggest that change one way or another is probably closer than it was a few years ago.
I also think the attitudes in regards to housing has changed. Back in the bad ole' days of the housing bubble- back when on any given day I could browse any number of housing bubble sites and see 100's of comments per thread pertaining to overpriced real estate, it was clear as a bell to all of us that the bubble was going to deflate. That sort of reassurance was in many ways comforting- to know that many other logical people were drawing the same conclusions. There must have been at least 20+ housing bubble blogs for the Bay Area alone. These days many of those sites are either gone or seldom updated. Others simply changed formats and the topics slowly went from being mostly about real estate to more of a mixture of things. Simply put- the intense interest in seeing through the collapse of the bubble dried up within a year or so after it was clear that the bubble had burst. This was followed by a few frustrating years of hoping prices would fall and fall more.
These days I'd say that people have gone from being scared to buy to suddenly being very interested in buying. Only problem is that due to the aftermath of the bubble pop, now a lot of people are scared of selling because they're underwater. Its possibly that those who couldn't afford to be underwater already exited during the initial bust and subsequent few years afterwards and thus those left are those who can afford their homes but don't want to lose money either. So its a catch-22: People want to buy and thus there is no supply and therefor more competition for what few homes are available.
That's at least how it is in the Bay Area. Others areas are of course totally different. Places like SF are probably closer to being at the bottom if they aren't already. If not- oh well. I could care less because my home isn't an investment.
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This is a question for all. Have we really seen the bottom in the housing market, with all the foreclosures, lack of demand??...
If people are not working, they are not buying.
Don't we have to see some stabilization in the Job market before we get stabilization in the housing market?
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
#housing