patrick.net

I do a daily search on EBRDI.com, the East Bay MLS service, for a count of all active listings. There are 5800+ today when back in April it was barely cracking the 4000 mark. Anectodal I know, but I've seen a difference with my own eyes.

I do a daily search on EBRDI.com, the East Bay MLS service, for a count of all active listings. There are 5800+ today when back in April it was barely cracking the 4000 mark. Anectodal I know, but I’ve seen a difference with my own eyes.

I'm also keeping a weekly count for Marin, Sonoma, and Napa.

You say you live in a city next to Monterey Park? Could it be Alhambra? I live in Alhambra and trying to buy a 2 beddroom condo there is crazy!

@ADefWebserver,

Oh, well, so much for blog anonymity... :-(
Yes, I live in Alhambra. I agree the market here is crazy, especially since I see more and more good-sized affordable rentals being advertised. This is of course a wholly predictable consequence of a euphoric, debt & speculation-driven asset bubble.

The new numbers sure seem to support a soft landing, don’t you think?

Mr.Right, I know you are wishing for a soft-landing. Same here.

However, we have not landed yet. The new numbers seem to support a landing. Soft or hard, we cannot tell yet.

Betting against the long term US economy is a suckers bet.

How patriotic you are. I certainly hope that you are right.

Mr.Right, the simple math suggests that for many areas, even 5% YoY increases are NOT sustainable going forward. Be careful with Chewbacca defenses.

BTW, Mr.Right, are you Antonio Villaraigosa?

Heck, even SD where all the death watchers have assembled is seeing a normal, sustainable 5.1% YoY pace.

On the topic of San Diego, how about we calculate a historic appreciation as a basis?
Taking median home price data from '82-'98, I see there's a range from -3.4% (92-93) to +18.5% (88-89). Over the 82-98 span, this averages to +3.71%. I could go back further, but the data isn't handy (source: dqnews, abag.ca.gov). Now perhaps the growth from 99 onward is "normal", yet if we apply 3.71% annually from this year onward, the disparity between medians is quite large, approx. $390K or 269%. While I won't take this calculation literally, it does suggest to me a gross overvaluation, and I cannot see how these prices will be sustained, even at a "normal" 5.1% growth.

Betting against the long term US economy is a suckers bet.

I agree, Mr. Right, but I am not betting against the entire U.S. economy long-term. I'm "betting" against the current RE market relatively short-term (1-5 years out or so).

I think the RE crash/correction will have a significant impact state-wide, and probably nationally as well. Falling demand/prices could even trigger a recession by itself, given how much current consumption and job growth has been driven directly/indirectly by housing & refinancing activity.

Nonetheless, as I've said before, "rumors of the Apocalypse are greatly exaggerated."

@Kurt S,

Over the 82-98 span, this averages to +3.71%. I could go back further, but the data isn’t handy (source: dqnews, abag.ca.gov).

In the latest edition of Irrational Exuberance, Robert Schiller went all the way back to the late 1800s (as far as the surviving data could take him) and estimated housing just barely stays ahead of inflation since then.

Shmend Rick,

I don't want to see a new bubble replace the current one any more than you do, but I am not hoping for a national or global economic meltdown. The results would be catastrophic for everyone, bears included. Not saying it can't happen, just that it's by no means a "sure thing" --and that's a good thing in my book.

As fun as it is to fantasize about watching speculators/greedy a$$holes go down in flames, the reality for everyone would be very grim if RE implodes the whole economy. I personally am hoping for a relatively brief, shallow RE-triggered recession, where prices revert to the mean historically vs. rents/incomes, followed by sustainable growth. That way, mostly speculators get burned and everybody else can go back to viewing houses as something to LIVE in.

Stanman Says:

August 14th, 2005 at 10:35 pm
To Marina Prime (and others that might believe this troll):

I noticed in the “Housing Bubble Glossary” thread that you were bashing Astrid for using the bank of Mom and Dad to finance law school and/or a mortgage down payment. I have no idea if this is true in her case, but I agree with you on the overall issue of how screwed up it is for middle class or even rich parents to set their kids up to be spoiled losers at an early age by buying them everything and watching them work lazy and/or save nothing.

Right on Stanman...this Marina dude is a BSing ZERO.

1) Whoever said i was in corporate finance, m&a? I already posted that i get in before 6am, and leave no later than 4:30pm-5pm. Hmmmm…. what other big bucks position could that be in IB? Hint, i don’t have to work weekends either.

Let me guess... trading? private banking?

You seem to be a more of a qualitative guy than a quantitative guy to me.

Gotta love it!

Please attempt to resist attacks...

I notice that most people with any knowledge about invesment bankers say that they're all a$$holes. Given that information the only thing that gives MP's story any credibility is his abrasive personality.

Please attempt to resist attacks…

Sorry Peter

If you try to fight MP he will just become defensive and abrasive. I cannot see how this is good for us. Patience and tolerance... ;)

Here's a quick diversion from MP et al--and how surreal the market has become:
http://tinyurl.com/8taq9
god help us all.

Here’s a quick diversion from MP et al–and how surreal the market has become:
http://tinyurl.com/8taq9
god help us all.

I am not sure who/what is more scary...Ivana or buying in LV. She is lookin really bad...lots of enhancements done, like her ugly upper lip. LOL

@ New Attorney
I am not sure who/what is more scary…Ivana or buying in LV.

--or that lipstick-shaped highrise. classy.

@ HARM

In the latest edition of Irrational Exuberance, Robert Schiller went all the way back to the late 1800s (as far as the surviving data could take him) and estimated housing just barely stays ahead of inflation since then.

Yes--I saw the trend. That sure puts things into perspective.
Btw, where do you think things would be without speculation--along that historical curve?

An I-banker and an attorney exchanging words....

Reminds me of two PIGEONS fighting over a chip.;) (only joking guys)

LOL.

MP,
What is wrong with bank of M + D.
This is normally called OLD money.

Everyone, please be nice. ;)

MP, where is your "designated" arch-nemesis? (Sorry, Jack) Lawyers are not all bad.

Just b/c you wasted $120,000 and 3 years of your life being scum, you don’t have to try and feel important and put other occupations down.

Stars in the legal industry go very far. Many presidents were lawyers, no? ;)

Yick.

This thread is contaminated.

The downside to expansion . . . .

Anybody see the housing report today? Still turning up roses.
But will it start pushing up daisies soon? Hmmm.
Pete P, still thinking October?

By the way, love the Steinbach quote. Perfect, and precisely the human condition that leads to so many problems. Reminds me of the late 80s - every business expanding so quickly because the economy was so strong, that when the early 90s came in with a thud, it was time to start cutting out the dead wood.

astrid, do not let other people provoke you. Have faith in yourself.

Pete P, still thinking October?

I think October will mark the beginning of the downturn. Of course, housing prices will not suddenly drop in October. :)

If there are no obvious signs by the end of October I will re-assess the situation. So far, I have not seen any reason to abandon my prediction early yet.

I don’t think we’re allowed to talk about positive housing data. We’ll just get hushed away and banned!

BTW, Escaped from DC is a bubble-believer. You are welcomed to talk about positive housing data so long as they are not deliberate deceptions. You will not be hused away or banned, but do expect some rebuttals.

MP did show that he is capable of being open-minded. ;)

I am not being "accomodative" but sometimes we can make progress only by stepping backward.

The harder we tried to fight him, the more resolved he becomes. He is dogmatic. (I used to be like that) If we can remain open-minded, I am sure he will be nice again and we can all participate in real discussions.

Jack, you are his designated arch-nemesis. I am afraid you are stuck. Should we continue our discussion on architecture and modular houses? Everyone was nice in that thread. :)

The straw bale houses HARM suggested looks like they’ll have a great future, as soon as stupid local zoning boards start opening up to the idea.

The word straw is just difficult to accept. Perhaps we should call it "energy efficient natural fiber"? :)

Why must we work so hard to work AROUND scum like Marina Prime?

I welcome cogent arguments from those more "bullish" than I--it keeps me real. But, this endless ad hominem, disquised as "discourse" poisons the well for everyone. It's like a little brat screaming for attention, and when he gets none, starts breaking things.

Environmental building materials, ie straw, etc. Sofar, the straw/concrete constructions I've seen have been rather blockish, but I'm sure they'll get more creative over time.
I understand that these straw constructions are excellent insulators, and that interests me. Overall, I think there's a lot we can do to improve homes to suit specific environments, vs. building the same tract style homes across the nation. For example, I think homes in desert areas should be partially underground to stay cooler in summer/warmer in winter. Just the tip of the iceberg, (so to speak). If I find articles, I'll pass them on.

I am sad to see MP revert to his old ways, it was nice to see the earlier progress. However, New Attorney did provoke some responses as well. But the attacks on Astrid were uncalled for and if behavior like that continues we should evict just to prevent the further deterioration of the blog.

Mr.Right, are you trying to preach?

No sir. Just read the activity. That is not a pretty site.

Might be preview to RE fallout?

Peter P

When the blog starts dying it's probably time to pull the plug on sub-prime posters who are driving off all the people who have 'invested' quality time here IMO.

Well... I sure picked a fine time to take the night off. Lots of quality posts tonight, *sigh*. Now I feel like I need a shower.

What to do, what to do?

The last time we had a vote on MP when he was acting this way, more than half voted to keep him, so I doubt majority rule will provide a solution here. The problem with evicting only MP is of course that nasty exchanges have two sides. Those who have been reacting to, provoking & goading him share at least some of the responsibility and blame here.

How about this:
From this point on, the next clown to post a personal attack, insult or gratuitous taunt directed at another blogger gets his post deleted with a warning. Same goes for anyone who repsonds to it with another taunt/insult. Do it twice and you get banned.

How does that sound?

After scrolling through all the nasty exchanges from tonight, I went back through one of my very favorite threads, "On a Personal Note", and re-read many of the comments people had made about why they chose to spend more time here vs. other blogs. The answers I found should give everyone here plenty to think about (I hope):

Waiting in Vegas:

I never really read the blogs until recently and glance on occation at Ben’s but this is the only blog I have ever responded to. I enjoy reading everyone’s banter around here.

SactoQt:

I started researching online and found Patrick’s website a few months ago. I mostly read the links at first, but I liked how civil the posters were, so I started posting too.

Josh:

I was oblivious to the bubble until about 6 months ago. I found this blog through Ben Jones’ blog, and I find the conversations here really interesting– I’ve become addicted…

Jack:

This is my only blog. I have never done anything like this before. I enjoy arguing with most of you here much more than I enjoy NOT arguing with my friends at the coffee shop! (But I like them too.) I really do feel like I know many of you better than I know them. I really do love everything about the interactions here. I love you guys!

Yakim:

I’m a relatively new lurker, enjoying the catch-up reading and community vibe here.

Kurt S:

I’m really a novice in real estate, but this site has provided some education–and challenging viewpoints.

C F:

I’ve posted to a number of sailing related BB’s but for stimulating reading and intelligent conversations, I’ve found nothing that is as friendly and informative as this site.

Zephyr:

The blog world appeals to me because I greatly enjoy discussing issues relating to economics and real estate. I also find new sources of information, hear differing views and learn new things.

long time lurker:

I’ve been visiting your website almost daily for I don’t know how long - quite some time before you had the links and blog links. I use to visit several other sites but have found yours to be all that I need now, especially with all of the improvements that you’ve made this last year. You’ve really done a fantastic job.

Astrid:

I really enjoy the banter here. I love being able to engage in serious and lengthy conversation about economics, money, architecture etc. I follow thehousingbubble2 blog too, but the conversation here is a lot more interesting.

I don't know what Sunnyvale is like, but here in Noe Valley, I know all the homeowners within sight of my house and most of the tenants, too. The guy next to me and his wife are good friends and will be attending my wedding in two months. The ones two down went to school with my fiance and I met a new neighbor bicycling back from work today.

So not every neighborhood is like that. I am sorry you didn't get to know your neighbors, but everyone here has been sociable.

I ended up getting to know the guy across from me when the FBI came to ask me about him. He pretty much keeps to himself, but it turns out he works for NASA and was getting a Top Secret clearance, so they asked me about him. So we have all types here!

^Josh: And it's continued unabated except for a slight hiccup in 2001-02 for TEN YEARS. Can you believe it?