patrick.net

Shmend Rick,

I don't want to see a new bubble replace the current one any more than you do, but I am not hoping for a national or global economic meltdown. The results would be catastrophic for everyone, bears included. Not saying it can't happen, just that it's by no means a "sure thing" --and that's a good thing in my book.

As fun as it is to fantasize about watching speculators/greedy a$$holes go down in flames, the reality for everyone would be very grim if RE implodes the whole economy. I personally am hoping for a relatively brief, shallow RE-triggered recession, where prices revert to the mean historically vs. rents/incomes, followed by sustainable growth. That way, mostly speculators get burned and everybody else can go back to viewing houses as something to LIVE in.

Stanman Says:

August 14th, 2005 at 10:35 pm
To Marina Prime (and others that might believe this troll):

I noticed in the “Housing Bubble Glossary” thread that you were bashing Astrid for using the bank of Mom and Dad to finance law school and/or a mortgage down payment. I have no idea if this is true in her case, but I agree with you on the overall issue of how screwed up it is for middle class or even rich parents to set their kids up to be spoiled losers at an early age by buying them everything and watching them work lazy and/or save nothing.

Right on Stanman...this Marina dude is a BSing ZERO.

1) Whoever said i was in corporate finance, m&a? I already posted that i get in before 6am, and leave no later than 4:30pm-5pm. Hmmmm…. what other big bucks position could that be in IB? Hint, i don’t have to work weekends either.

Let me guess... trading? private banking?

You seem to be a more of a qualitative guy than a quantitative guy to me.

Gotta love it!

Please attempt to resist attacks...

I notice that most people with any knowledge about invesment bankers say that they're all a$$holes. Given that information the only thing that gives MP's story any credibility is his abrasive personality.

Please attempt to resist attacks…

Sorry Peter

If you try to fight MP he will just become defensive and abrasive. I cannot see how this is good for us. Patience and tolerance... ;)

Here's a quick diversion from MP et al--and how surreal the market has become:
http://tinyurl.com/8taq9
god help us all.

Here’s a quick diversion from MP et al–and how surreal the market has become:
http://tinyurl.com/8taq9
god help us all.

I am not sure who/what is more scary...Ivana or buying in LV. She is lookin really bad...lots of enhancements done, like her ugly upper lip. LOL

@ New Attorney
I am not sure who/what is more scary…Ivana or buying in LV.

--or that lipstick-shaped highrise. classy.

@ HARM

In the latest edition of Irrational Exuberance, Robert Schiller went all the way back to the late 1800s (as far as the surviving data could take him) and estimated housing just barely stays ahead of inflation since then.

Yes--I saw the trend. That sure puts things into perspective.
Btw, where do you think things would be without speculation--along that historical curve?

An I-banker and an attorney exchanging words....

Reminds me of two PIGEONS fighting over a chip.;) (only joking guys)

LOL.

MP,
What is wrong with bank of M + D.
This is normally called OLD money.

Everyone, please be nice. ;)

MP, where is your "designated" arch-nemesis? (Sorry, Jack) Lawyers are not all bad.

Just b/c you wasted $120,000 and 3 years of your life being scum, you don’t have to try and feel important and put other occupations down.

Stars in the legal industry go very far. Many presidents were lawyers, no? ;)

Yick.

This thread is contaminated.

The downside to expansion . . . .

Anybody see the housing report today? Still turning up roses.
But will it start pushing up daisies soon? Hmmm.
Pete P, still thinking October?

By the way, love the Steinbach quote. Perfect, and precisely the human condition that leads to so many problems. Reminds me of the late 80s - every business expanding so quickly because the economy was so strong, that when the early 90s came in with a thud, it was time to start cutting out the dead wood.

astrid, do not let other people provoke you. Have faith in yourself.

Pete P, still thinking October?

I think October will mark the beginning of the downturn. Of course, housing prices will not suddenly drop in October. :)

If there are no obvious signs by the end of October I will re-assess the situation. So far, I have not seen any reason to abandon my prediction early yet.

I don’t think we’re allowed to talk about positive housing data. We’ll just get hushed away and banned!

BTW, Escaped from DC is a bubble-believer. You are welcomed to talk about positive housing data so long as they are not deliberate deceptions. You will not be hused away or banned, but do expect some rebuttals.

MP did show that he is capable of being open-minded. ;)

I am not being "accomodative" but sometimes we can make progress only by stepping backward.

The harder we tried to fight him, the more resolved he becomes. He is dogmatic. (I used to be like that) If we can remain open-minded, I am sure he will be nice again and we can all participate in real discussions.

Jack, you are his designated arch-nemesis. I am afraid you are stuck. Should we continue our discussion on architecture and modular houses? Everyone was nice in that thread. :)

The straw bale houses HARM suggested looks like they’ll have a great future, as soon as stupid local zoning boards start opening up to the idea.

The word straw is just difficult to accept. Perhaps we should call it "energy efficient natural fiber"? :)

Why must we work so hard to work AROUND scum like Marina Prime?

I welcome cogent arguments from those more "bullish" than I--it keeps me real. But, this endless ad hominem, disquised as "discourse" poisons the well for everyone. It's like a little brat screaming for attention, and when he gets none, starts breaking things.

Environmental building materials, ie straw, etc. Sofar, the straw/concrete constructions I've seen have been rather blockish, but I'm sure they'll get more creative over time.
I understand that these straw constructions are excellent insulators, and that interests me. Overall, I think there's a lot we can do to improve homes to suit specific environments, vs. building the same tract style homes across the nation. For example, I think homes in desert areas should be partially underground to stay cooler in summer/warmer in winter. Just the tip of the iceberg, (so to speak). If I find articles, I'll pass them on.

I am sad to see MP revert to his old ways, it was nice to see the earlier progress. However, New Attorney did provoke some responses as well. But the attacks on Astrid were uncalled for and if behavior like that continues we should evict just to prevent the further deterioration of the blog.

Mr.Right, are you trying to preach?

No sir. Just read the activity. That is not a pretty site.

Might be preview to RE fallout?

Peter P

When the blog starts dying it's probably time to pull the plug on sub-prime posters who are driving off all the people who have 'invested' quality time here IMO.

Well... I sure picked a fine time to take the night off. Lots of quality posts tonight, *sigh*. Now I feel like I need a shower.

What to do, what to do?

The last time we had a vote on MP when he was acting this way, more than half voted to keep him, so I doubt majority rule will provide a solution here. The problem with evicting only MP is of course that nasty exchanges have two sides. Those who have been reacting to, provoking & goading him share at least some of the responsibility and blame here.

How about this:
From this point on, the next clown to post a personal attack, insult or gratuitous taunt directed at another blogger gets his post deleted with a warning. Same goes for anyone who repsonds to it with another taunt/insult. Do it twice and you get banned.

How does that sound?

After scrolling through all the nasty exchanges from tonight, I went back through one of my very favorite threads, "On a Personal Note", and re-read many of the comments people had made about why they chose to spend more time here vs. other blogs. The answers I found should give everyone here plenty to think about (I hope):

Waiting in Vegas:

I never really read the blogs until recently and glance on occation at Ben’s but this is the only blog I have ever responded to. I enjoy reading everyone’s banter around here.

SactoQt:

I started researching online and found Patrick’s website a few months ago. I mostly read the links at first, but I liked how civil the posters were, so I started posting too.

Josh:

I was oblivious to the bubble until about 6 months ago. I found this blog through Ben Jones’ blog, and I find the conversations here really interesting– I’ve become addicted…

Jack:

This is my only blog. I have never done anything like this before. I enjoy arguing with most of you here much more than I enjoy NOT arguing with my friends at the coffee shop! (But I like them too.) I really do feel like I know many of you better than I know them. I really do love everything about the interactions here. I love you guys!

Yakim:

I’m a relatively new lurker, enjoying the catch-up reading and community vibe here.

Kurt S:

I’m really a novice in real estate, but this site has provided some education–and challenging viewpoints.

C F:

I’ve posted to a number of sailing related BB’s but for stimulating reading and intelligent conversations, I’ve found nothing that is as friendly and informative as this site.

Zephyr:

The blog world appeals to me because I greatly enjoy discussing issues relating to economics and real estate. I also find new sources of information, hear differing views and learn new things.

long time lurker:

I’ve been visiting your website almost daily for I don’t know how long - quite some time before you had the links and blog links. I use to visit several other sites but have found yours to be all that I need now, especially with all of the improvements that you’ve made this last year. You’ve really done a fantastic job.

Astrid:

I really enjoy the banter here. I love being able to engage in serious and lengthy conversation about economics, money, architecture etc. I follow thehousingbubble2 blog too, but the conversation here is a lot more interesting.

I don't know what Sunnyvale is like, but here in Noe Valley, I know all the homeowners within sight of my house and most of the tenants, too. The guy next to me and his wife are good friends and will be attending my wedding in two months. The ones two down went to school with my fiance and I met a new neighbor bicycling back from work today.

So not every neighborhood is like that. I am sorry you didn't get to know your neighbors, but everyone here has been sociable.

I ended up getting to know the guy across from me when the FBI came to ask me about him. He pretty much keeps to himself, but it turns out he works for NASA and was getting a Top Secret clearance, so they asked me about him. So we have all types here!

^Josh: And it's continued unabated except for a slight hiccup in 2001-02 for TEN YEARS. Can you believe it?

Shmend Rick,

Thanks for the excerpt from Genesis about Egypt's seven-year feast/famine cycle (to be correctly interpreted by Joseph). Very apt story and holds an important lesson for what may soon unfold in the RE market and broader economy.

Now, isn't that better than trading insults?

SIM,

Interesting anecdote about it being much more expensive to move OUT of CA than moving in. I wonder if that's true of most cities in CA now --can anyone else out there corroborate that?

Paul,

Thanks for the story about Queensland. I wonder, do Aussies also have NIMBY-style anti-development laws that restrict new building and exaggerate the up/down cycles there as well, or is it mainly overdependence on the powerplant & mining operations that matter?

I started noticing real estate take off in SF in 95-96. People in 96-97 were talking about how high real estate prices were getting and how houses were being bid up with 10-20 multiple offers over asking. It was shocking at the time.

I'm surprised it picked up so quickly in Palo Alto. Things recovered VERY slowly down here (SCAL/LA). Didn't really bottom until 1996.

How about this:
From this point on, the next clown to post a personal attack, insult or gratuitous taunt directed at another blogger gets his post deleted with a warning. Same goes for anyone who repsonds to it with another taunt/insult. Do it twice and you get banned.

How does that sound?

Sounds fair to me.

95-96 was still slow RE-wise in the Sacto area too. RE didn't really start heating up until after the stock boom/bust cycle.

@HARM, Josh
I’m surprised it picked up so quickly in Palo Alto. Things receovered VERY slowly down here (SCAL/LA). Didn’t really bottom until 1996.

the house my parents sold in 90 had appreciated 10x since they bought it in 71

I remember bay area RE prices rising during the tech boom, which back then was attributed to worker influx. Since prices kept going after the dot-bomb, I'm guessing speculation was a large factor during the boom time. Palo Alto has always been above-median housing, but it really took on status appeal during the boom. From Josh's comments, it sure looks like the curve began earlier. Funny, there was a mild tech-related recession in the late '80s to early '90s, but prices kept going up. Back then, it was generally assumed that demand drove the prices; we didn't consider the investors too much.

Sacto. will follow SF by a year or two, both in declines and gains. If you live in Sac., be awake and fully alert to the SF market.

That's one of the reasons I follow this blog. I think it helps to hear anecdotally what's going on in the BA in order to gauge what's likely to happen here.

But isn’t everybody who rents out a condo, the owner of the condo? I don’t understand how all condo owners are exempt from rent control? Should there be no rent control then?

Many own multi-unit "apartment" buildings. They are "structurally" similar to condos but the type of ownership is technically different. Am I right, Jimbo?

BTW- If Hedgestreet is bunk, are there any locale-based RE derivatives available for the private investor? Many disagree with me, but in the case of a collapse, then REITs will be greatly undervalued…

We are waiting for MARCO securities. There will also be tracking futures contracts. I think the liquidity will be a lot better.

The only other "locale-based RE derivative" I know of is a friendly gentlemen's bet.

BTW, many apartment REITs may not collapse at all. Mortgage REITs will see blood.

(Not investment advice)

I’m surprised it picked up so quickly in Palo Alto. Things receovered VERY slowly down here (SCAL/LA). Didn’t really bottom until 1996.

I think it was related to the tech boom.

OT: Does anybody else find it curious that Patrick doesn't seem to EVER post on these (his own!) BLOGS?!