patrick.net

JodyChunder says

So we bid around 40k over.

This sort of thing right here folks, is all you need to know.

Yes? Well its not all "You need to know" because for starters, the price was pretty low for the house and secondly, and as mentioned by myself several times, I rented for 17 years prior. In that time, and continuing on into today, we scrimped and saved. Drove and still drive 15+ year old beater cars with 200k+ on each, seldom eat out, don't buy fancy new gadgets, and invested heavily into retirement funds.

I see a lot of people complaining they have been saving for a year or something and then can't buy a house. We saved for 12+ years. All the while watching the housing bubble inflate and deflate. So what that we paid 40k over? We have the cash and the payments aren't a big deal because again- we saved.

If most people were to suck it up and save money for 10 years or so, they too would be in just fine condition.

some pennies of thoughs

- As OP makes it clear, and the edvard2 confirms above, the house price that you're willing to pay depends on your personal demand for it. OP's "months" of waiting are worth 25K, edvard2's "12+ years" = 40K. You can see how 40K can be much much smaller than 25K. Even though the asking price, as was mentioned correctly before, has nothing to do with market price, it is an important data point, because it is the number that is perceived by those searching for a house to be in relative vicinity of the correct price.

- There does appear a bit of mini-bubble going on just now, largely due to very limited inventory. I suspect part of it was (and maybe still is) driven by expectations of Facebook millions, some of which failed to materialize, causing sellers waiting to put the houses on the market to withhold till some other millions show up :)

- Now, multiple bids are taking place on both 400K and 4M houses. It is not clear yet whether we are witnessing the change in how price discovery and market will operate in Bay area from now on (intentionally low listing price to increase foot traffic and solicit multiple bids), or it is a temporary phenomenon. Just keep in mind that traded price is the only true market price.

freak80 says

Peter P says

Not saying house prices will go up, but SF prices are quite low compared to the rest of the world.

Maybe compared to London, Tokyo, Paris and other major cultural centers.

If so why were'nt prices sky high back in the 1970s, 80s 90s.. why NOW!

SFBA has been around for a very long time!

thomaswong.1986 says

freak80 says

Peter P says

Not saying house prices will go up, but SF prices are quite low compared to the rest of the world.

Maybe compared to London, Tokyo, Paris and other major cultural centers.

If so why were'nt prices sky high back in the 1970s, 80s 90s.. why NOW!

SFBA has been around for a very long time!

Very good point! If anything SF has just become smellier over time.

But then the bubble has little to do with affordability. The market will correct itself when the next financial crisis hit. Looking at continental Europe things aren't pretty.

Peter P says

Very good point! If anything SF has just become smellier over time.

But then the bubble has little to do with affordability. The market will correct itself when the next financial crisis hit. Looking at continental Europe things aren't pretty.

Hype.. thats the difference between then and now. You have very very good reasons that prices SHOULD have skyrocketed back decades ago the the nose bleed levels we saw .. industrial growth was double digit...

Now compare that today.. UGH! not any good reasons at all..

thomaswong.1986 says

why were'nt prices sky high back in the 1970s, 80s 90s.. why NOW!

SFBA has been around for a very long time!

Because those times were before the purchasing power of wealthy immigrants could muscle in here.

FriendlyJaffa says

- There does appear a bit of mini-bubble going on just now, largely due to very limited inventory. I suspect part of it was (and maybe still is) driven by expectations of Facebook millions, some of which failed to materialize, causing sellers waiting to put the houses on the market to withhold till some other millions show up :)

What was your expectations on the IPO.. it went out at 40 or so!

So were you expecting it to do what $400..$500...$600 per share!
even at 40 it was over 100 x next years earnings...

So how could anyone even justify 40 ? of course it was going to go down!

It is a liquidity bubble.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Because those times were before the purchasing power of wealthy immigrants could muscle in here.

wont be wealthy immigrants for long since they spent it...

and the $64M question.. wealth from what, where, when and how ?

unless they are from Columbia or Bolivia!

It was from money newly created by the global ZIRP.

DukeLaw says

Sheesh, have you ever really lived in NYC or are you just pulling @$@@ out of your arse??

I visit NY often enough, though not as much in the last five years with my hip dysplasia. I married a girl from Flatbush in '73. I know NY. San Francisco is not even in the running when compared to New York. Are you even form this planet>??

edvard2 says

Yes? Well its not all "You need to know" because for starters, the price was pretty low for the house

Ha. That is a quite the qualifier. Low for the house??? I think the idea that you of all people would overbid on a property is telltale. We are in recession as I type this. I have bought and sold many houses ed - but then, I have never been laid off from a job in my entire life and I am self employed. I also have over 700K in cash and easily that much in non-liquid. What you done is said, hey...I give up. Rape me.

You shoulda rented from me for another 17 years and retired a filthy rich man.

Peter P says

It was from money newly created by the global ZIRP.

Getting closer everyday to NIRP.

edvard2 says

I see a lot of people complaining they have been saving for a year or something and then can't buy a house. We saved for 12+ years. All the while watching the housing bubble inflate and deflate.

I came to Bay Area in 2001 and save for 6 years before I start looking for house. I almost bought a house in San Jose Cambrian area and I called it off because the house was not in my desire school district.

Then the housing market crashed and it was artificially jacked up First time home buyer credit. I waited for the credit to expired 2 times before I settle in Campbell. In other words, I save up for 9 1/2 years and the house hunting process is as long as 5 years.

It is funny to see people complaining about saving for 1 year and then crying that they are outbid by someone else.

JodyChunder says

Getting closer everyday to NIRP.

If you look at REAL interest rates, a.k.a interest rates minus inflation, we already have NIRP.

JodyChunder says

Ha. That is a quite the qualifier. Low for the house??? I think the idea that you of all people would overbid on a property is telltale. We are in recession as I type this. I have bought and sold many houses ed - but then, I have never been laid off from a job in my entire life and I am self employed. I also have over 700K in cash and easily that much in non-liquid.

Not really getting your point. Yes- it was a good price for the house- or shall I say- area. Yes- I know we're in a recession. I was laid-off three years ago in fact and now have a good job. But regardless of whether we're in a recession or not, people are laid off all the time despite whatever shape the economy might be in. Good for you for having cash. I too have a sizable sum of cash even after making a 25% down payment, not including retirement funds.

So we can pat each other on the back because I too can happily make the same forward statements as you, having become successful and well situated financially.

The bottom line is that whenever people ask about finance or financial decisions, the decision is going to be different for everyone. There aren't rules stating you have to buy in XXX timeframe or that a decision has to be made only under certain market conditions. Each choice will carry risks.

edvard2 says

So we bid around 40k over. In the long term that's not really adding much to the monthly payment because ( at least for us) got a very low interest rate. Even at that bid we barely won it. Only reason we did is because we offered a sizable down-payment in addition.

$40k over is no biggy. Last time I won a bid, I had to DOUBLE the asking price, yes, DOUBLE. And I submited a CASH offer.

But, haha, the asking price was a mere $13k. I do not live in CA or Phoenix so ignore me if you do not care. But the market I have here is an investor's market (~50%.) Nobody bids if your price is not low enough.

Mobi says

But, haha, the asking price was a mere $13k. I do not live in CA or Phoenix so ignore me if you do not care. But the market I have here is an investor's market (~50%.) Nobody bids if your price is not low enough.

Its all about perspective and the word " Affordable" has different meanings to everyone. The house we bought was very affordable for us but of course not for others. Likewise, to some people 13k is also unaffordable.

Mobi, where are you?

and that 40,000 over was really 80,000 over the long haul.

KILLERJANE says

Mobi, where are you?

and that 40,000 over was really 80,000 over the long haul.

Thinking saying and doing need to line up.

In the middle of nowhere in OH. It is affordable here. Just not too many jobs. The price/rent ratio here definitely favors owning houses. However, you have no chance with REOs except cash offers so that is why it is an investor's market.

Peter P says

I still think "beautiful city" is an oxymoron.

I don't understand why people who enjoy the country want to trash it by living there. Leave the wild wild. Move to the city where we embrace trash and piss.

FunTime says

I don't understand why people who enjoy the country want to trash it by living there. Leave the wild wild. Move to the city where we embrace trash and piss.

Wow.

I lived on the Upper East Side for a few years. I know a lot of folks that tire of life in Manhatten and move to SF. If you like 24-7 nightlife, NY is much better than SF. If you like the outdoors, I think SF is a much better choice.

You were the one commenting on Central Park. I'm just pointing out I'd rather have Yosemite/Tahoe within driving distance than the Gunks. I'd rather ski in Tahoe than haul up to Stowe/Killington/Okemo.

And it's great that you're able to remember NYC from 40 years ago.....I'm just going to say that your lenses are fairly rose colored and you're not quite getting the mindset of 20/30 somethings.

If you can get out of the Bay Area, get out. All the sane people are leaving, which can only make this area worse. We can't, but if we could we'd be flying out tomorrow. That's my heart felt advice.

hrhjuliet says

If you can get out of the Bay Area, get out. All the sane people are leaving

Yikes, well at least I know where I stand. I moved south to get here. I'll never live in the Northwest again. I thought I dealt well with the darkness while living in Portland, but after moving to San Francisco realized I was probably in some kind of state of depression during the winters. Invest in light treatment if you move up there! Especially if you grew up in a sunny place like me.

I agree that a lot of people leave the Bay Area and move to the Northwest. That's been happening with my friends since I moved in 1999. Saw another family off to Portland last Saturday.

PoFunTime says

Saw another family off to Portland last Saturday.

All the best people seem to be moving to Portland. ): What does that leave us with?

Redefining "best?" We're left with a short trip during Jul-Sept?

We probably have a different understanding of "best" but, indeed, I've watched several best friends move away just in the time I've been in San Francisco. Now that so many friends are procreating, I expect to see more go.

Portland is a really great city in many ways. I miss it. I enjoy visits. Although, my family there is considering leaving. Greener grass is everywhere.

I think hrhjuliet's definition of best is, "politically moderate and not willing to mortgage themselves to the max". That's my wild, totally arbitrary guess anyway.

Portland is a nice place. Free trams in downtown. Good food. No sales tax. Perhsps living in Vancouver, WA is even better. No state income tax too!

bmwman91 says

I think hrhjuliet's definition of best is, "politically moderate and not willing to mortgage themselves to the max". That's my wild, totally arbitrary guess anyway.

Makes sense, but I'm thinking hrhjuliet uses social and intuitive, less data-driven definitions, that might lead a person to just think, 'I like that person."

BTW, my BMW reference wasn't picking on just that car. They're great cars and I know you're a hobbyist! Cool! Sounds fun. i was really meaning "expensive cars bought to show socioeconomic status" which could be the entire range of cars depending on context.

bmwman91 says

I think hrhjuliet's definition of best is, "politically moderate and not willing to mortgage themselves to the max". That's my wild, totally arbitrary guess anyway.

Definitely qualities on my list. Good guess.

FunTime says

Makes sense, but I'm thinking hrhjuliet uses social and intuitive, less data-driven definitions, that might lead a person to just think, 'I like that person."

Yes, I also mean people that are easy to like. People that enhance their community by volunteering and making where they live more aesthetic, safe and clean. People that are genuine and do their best to not live selfish lives diseased with "affluenza" and materialism. People you can trust; trust what they say, and trust them not to hurt you or your property. People that would rather have health and happiness for everyone around them, instead of people who think it's okay to climb over every person in their way so they can have more and more stuff and comfort. I have a feeling Portland is going to get better and better, and the Bay Area is going to get more crime, gangs and McMansions and a lot of hurting people in between.

hrhjuliet says

Yes, I also mean people that are easy to like. People that enhance their community by volunteering and making where they live more aesthetic, safe and clean. People that are genuine and do their best to not live selfish lives diseased with "affluenza" and materialism. People you can trust; trust what they say, and trust them not to hurt you or your property. People that would rather have health and happiness for everyone around them, instead of people who think it's okay to climb over every person in their way so they can have more and more stuff and comfort.

I think that place is called "Canada."

FunTime says

BTW, my BMW reference wasn't picking on just that car. They're great cars and I know you're a hobbyist! Cool! Sounds fun. i was really meaning "expensive cars bought to show socioeconomic status" which could be the entire range of cars depending on context.

I agree 100%. Cars are popular status symbols. And most BMW drivers are douche bags anyway lol, don't worry about offending me. My '91 "doesn't count" as a BMW to the snobs. Then again, a big reason that I still drive the old one is the community. The old BMW enthusiast community is really solid.hrhjuliet says

Yes, I also mean people that are easy to like. People that enhance their community by volunteering and making where they live more aesthetic, safe and clean. People that are genuine and do their best to not live selfish lives diseased with "affluenza" and materialism. People you can trust; trust what they say, and trust them not to hurt you or your property. People that would rather have health and happiness for everyone around them, instead of people who think it's okay to climb over every person in their way so they can have more and more stuff and comfort. I have a feeling Portland is going to get better and better, and the Bay Area is going to get more crime, gangs and McMansions and a lot of hurting people in between.

Great description. This sums up many of my frustrations with the SFBA. I stick around mainly because 80% of my family is here. Being an avid hiker/climber/runner/biker also kicks ass with the total lack of weather we have here, too. Beyond that though, this place makes me cringe almost daily as I look around.

bmwman91 says

this place makes me cringe almost daily as I look around

Haha. Well, I haven't found a way to be around a bunch of people and not end up cringing. I'm sure I must induce cringes too. I think you'd both like my block in the city. Sure, there's cringe induction, but there's also people who want to know their neighbors and live safely. Who knows, I might like a couple people building towers on my block too, if they ever look in my direction or make eye contact. ; )

bmwman91 says

Being an avid hiker/climber/runner/biker also kicks ass with the total lack of weather we have here, too. Beyond that though, this place makes me cringe almost daily as I look around.

You could try Reno, NV. Just avoid all of those "chain-link and Rottweiler" neighborhoods (as seen on Reno 9-1-1).

FunTime says

Haha. Well, I haven't found a way to be around a bunch of people and not end up cringing. I'm sure I must induce cringes too. I think you'd both like my block in the city. Sure, there's cringe induction, but there's also people who want to know their neighbors and live safely. Who knows, I might like a couple people building towers on my block too, if they ever look in my direction or make eye contact. ; )

Yeah, as easy as it is to be totally cynical, I know that most people are decent and probably little-to-no different than me, overall. The shitty individuals are just so...noticeable!

freak80 says

You could try Reno, NV. Just avoid all of those "chain-link and Rottweiler" neighborhoods (as seen on Reno 9-1-1).

Hey, I could just walk down the street to "invest" rather than use the stock market!

bmwman91 says

Great description. This sums up many of my frustrations with the SFBA. I stick around mainly because 80% of my family is here. Being an avid hiker/climber/runner/biker also kicks ass with the total lack of weather we have here, too. Beyond that though, this place makes me cringe almost daily as I look around.

Exactly how we feel.

hrhjuliet says

Exactly how we feel.

Reno it is!