patrick.net

George,

You know that's kind of funny coming from Paul B. Farrell. The guy totally bashes brokers and fin. planners (that typically advocate saving/investing) so it's odd to cite studies done by mutual fund companies when he usually touts "no-loads" to the hilt. You see, Paul is a "you guys can do this" kind of guy.

Where much of the negative savings comes in is that Joe Howmuchisthisamonth has been told that paying 1/2 of your take home pay to a mortgage company is the new "standard". Boomers are the focus of his article as they are next in line to retire but the truth is that FB's of any age aren't in any better shape financially, just a little younger.

Oh, btw I REFUSE to treat boomers lack of savings, foresight or general lack of reasoning skills as a freaking CRISIS! No one else should either! Just remember boomers; All you need is Love!

Apple and Microsoft shouldn't pend too much of their futures on portable MP3 and movie players. The real future is in cellphones. Pretty soon, most of your computer needs, entertainment, MP3's, movies, reading materials, and web browsing will all be on your phone. I'm fairly confident that at least apple knows this.I can imagine that "apple wireless", would position them into having a majority control of on on-phone media. If they aren't then they're stupid. Microsoft surely knows this as well, so perhaps they're throwing this player out as a temporary fix. MP3 players of today can be equated to the Ad-on FM tuners you could buy seperatly for your 72' Dodge charger back in the day.

The real future is in cellphones.

However...

A mobile computing device is too big to be used as a cellphone.
A cellphone is too small to be used as a mobile computing device.

I thought cellphone and electric shaver will converge ( ;) ) but that did not happen.

Peter,
I actually work for a company that researches and sells cellphones. The truth is that some of the up and coming phones have as much as an 800 mgz processor in them. That's more than 60% more than the current speed, and as time passes, a doubling in processing power is made available within a time frame of usually 7 months or less. That means that within a year and a half, cellphones will possibly have the same computing as a laptop. Some of the operating systems are getting awfully close to that you'd find on a computer as well. Some of the entertainment options now available for phones is impressive. The only thing that's stopping people from being able to watch movies outright on either cellphones or Ipods is a restriction from the movie industry.That and carriers are all trying to specialize their technologies so that you HAVE to have their service to watch movies, clips, music, etc. Bullcrap. Phones are becoming more like a conventional computer, so the need for carriers as sources for media is uneccesary. But they'll only be able to stall the enivitable for so long, or until they have caught up enough to find a way to regulate it.
As crazy as it sounds, the next tech and entertainment wave is and will be on cellphones. You should see some of the options

I like the idea of having centrally run main computer and have cheap receiver devices. I definitely see iPod (and GPS and swiss army knives) and cellphone devices converging. Not quite so sure about the oncoming convergence with electric shavers though.

Is there now a razer with five blades? Anyone tried it?

The truth is that some of the up and coming phones have as much as an 800 mgz processor in them. That’s more than 60% more than the current speed, and as time passes, a doubling in processing power is made available within a time frame of usually 7 months or less.

True. But the problem is in the tiny screen. Unless they come up with foldable/flexible screens, size will be a problem.

SHTF,

I think the big challenge for cellphone makers is the small size of the screen. I don't really see how that could be changed without affecting their portability.

DinOR:
"Just remember boomers; All you need is Love!"

Right! All we are saying -- is give peace a chance!

Maybe create a boomer death cult will take care of the problem.

I think those older HP Palmtop computers (Windows CE) have the best form factor for mobile computing. Too bad they do not make them anymore.

The size of Nokia 9300 is not too bad as a compromise, but the screen still needs to be quite a bit bigger.

Maybe create a boomer death cult will take care of the problem.

Can we have a food cult instead?

I definitely see iPod (and GPS and swiss army knives) and cellphone devices converging.

I have a Samsung Blade phone with a built-in MP3 player. However, I do not know how to use the music feature. It is just too difficult to use. I think many people will find convergent devices too confusing. Personally, I prefer to have a button for each functionality. Menus are just too difficult to navigate.

The screen size isn't a problem. it's a UI issue. Remember that the earliest TV sets only had a 2" screen, yet people thought of them as luxory items. Screen technology is also getting a lot better. There is more clarity and sharpness, along with overall more brightness. I'm fairly firm in my belief that phones will become the new form for daily computing needs. It's just a matter of getting people acustomed to working in a diffrent manner.

The screen size isn’t a problem. it’s a UI issue.

How can you read a web-page on a tiny screen? I am already having trouble with resolution less than 1600x1200.

Font selection as well as the way you lay out the page. That means that instead of having a full page length of text across the screen, you have the same font size but only 25-30 characters across. Also- fonts make all the diffrence. Some are easy to read at small sizes. The resolution of the screen is important as well, with newer screens being fairly high.

Some are easy to read at small sizes. The resolution of the screen is important as well, with newer screens being fairly high.

But I doubt I can read fonts much smaller than those on newspapers regardless of resolution.

Still, we need to have at least 4" or greater width to work. Preferably 6 to 7", that's going to impact size. That's probably fine for anyone with a bag and not much bigger than blackberries are now.

Well...
I can't go into detail as to what I work on specifically, but I can say that within a year or so, cellphones will have a lot more entertainment options than exsists now.

I can’t go into detail as to what I work on specifically, but I can say that within a year or so, cellphones will have a lot more entertainment options than exsists now.

Perhaps condo-flipping directly from your phone. :)

MMOG? :)

MMOG

Huh?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMOG

sorry, it's one of Randy's areas of interest

but it would be a good way to kill time on the subway

I've got a Treo, and I really like it. I mean, I really like it.

Like many guys, for many years I bought every tech gadget that hit the market. I stopped doing this about four or five years ago, but even then I remained interested in the gadgets, even if I no longer bought them all.

Most of the time, I would not use a gadget at all after I got it, except for the first week or two. Or if I did keep using it, I'd use only 10% of its features.

My Treo is the exception. I use it constantly, and utilize 90% of its features. Really use them, not just try them out. I check my email, keep my calendar and contacts, and browse the web. It's great!

I had a Pocket PC cell phone before the Treo. In addition to the cell phone and Pocket PC, it had Bluetooth and Wi-Fi. It was more powerful, but the user interface was far more cumbersome. It also crashed a lot.

I personally am very excited about the idea of a combination cell phone/Ipod. However, it's got to have a good user interface, and it's got to be reliable, or else I won't use it. My Treo is less powerful than my old Pocket PC, and has fewer features, but it works and is easy to navigage.

If Microsoft gets into the pda/phone/MP3 market, I probably won't be buying any of their products. But if Apple were to make a cell phone/ipod -- I'd give it a ring (no pun intended!)

Did someone say MMOG?

I want to set up an MMOG to model complex, irrational, psychology driven market behavior using real people as the "artificial intelligence" actors.

Then I want to use that model to systematically bankrupt hedge funds.

you know what the next big thing will be? Beer beetles. Apparently, scientists found out how to make beetles produce beer by planting fields full of yellow flowers. The beetles eat the flowers, then piss beer! amazing! and I'm going to be the 1st one to utlize this new technology. Way more interesting than flipping condos.

My boyfriend has a motorola slvr. He uses it for internet and iPod (though it has a 100 song limit, so it's more like a shuffle) functions. At every single stop, he gets out and checks for signals. But the phone is pretty limited on other options.

He's definitely getting 90%+ usage out of the phone.

The boy is addicted to fantasy baseball.

I want to set up an MMOG to model complex, irrational, psychology driven market behavior using real people as the “artificial intelligence” actors.

Then I want to use that model to systematically bankrupt hedge funds.

Are you seeking a partner? ;)

SHTF,

What about Slurm and the Slurm Queen? :)

Would we have different kinds of beer by planting different kinds of flowers? Is the beer a lager or an ale?

"I want to set up an MMOG to model complex, irrational, psychology driven market behavior using real people as the “artificial intelligence” actors.

Then I want to use that model to systematically bankrupt hedge funds.

Are you seeking a partner? ;) "

If you guys ever get that set up, be sure to check out the possibilities of such models for political consulting.

Did you guys see this chart on Ben’s blog? It shows a *slight* upward trend

Just a matter of time now. It is amazing how low the inventories were in '03! Seems like there is about an 18-24 month lag between the inventory cycle and the pricing cycle. Thus '04 and '05 prices reflect the low inventories of '02 and '03.... Hopefully the '07 and '08 prices will reflect the high inventories of '06...

The most popular request I heard at my brief stint with Verizon Wireless was a simple, rugged phone.

This is why I like my Samsung Blade. It is cladded in magnesium alloy and it feels sturdy. Plastic is a wrong material for cellphone.

I would like to see more phones like Nokia 8800 as well.

I would suggest that this is probably the best, if not the only, way to home ownership:

Blogger barters his way to home ownership

Start bartering, guys. I think it will work for everyone.

(He only got a donated $50K house in a remote Canadian town of 1 500, but hey, it's the principle of the thing...)

Hedge funds are now going long, so they're not really hedging anything anymore. It's just a way to bypass SEC scrutiny.

Astrid, how do you know Hedgies are going long now?

BTW, by definition, hedging almost always involves being on both sides of (not necessary the same) trade.

The problems with hedge funds seem to be (1) herd effect and (2) gigantic leverage.

Hedge funds are now going long, so they’re not really hedging anything anymore. It’s just a way to bypass SEC scrutiny.

Hedge funds do not necessarily hedge. However, I believe they do attempt to produce returns that are anti-correlated (or at least non-correlated) to traditional investments.

The problems with hedge funds seem to be (1) herd effect and (2) gigantic leverage.

Many hedge funds do not use more leverage than our friendly FB neighbors though. :)

Correct. Some FB's leverage is ill defined. In Calculus, they use a long arrow and a funny symbol involving an Eight lying down to represent this risk-taking behavior.

I personally am very excited about the idea of a combination cell phone/Ipod. However, it’s got to have a good user interface, and it’s got to be reliable, or else I won’t use it. My Treo is less powerful than my old Pocket PC, and has fewer features, but it works and is easy to navigate.

These PDA/phone/ipod/camera/mini-PC devices are all very cool, but one thing worries me: what if I get completely dependent on it then lose the damn thing? I've just lost the functionality of all 5 devices, plus whatever data I don't have backed up.

GC,

No inside information, just bits and pieces I pick up from mass media sources and from my SEC law class (which was largely a waste, the prof was one of very few pure market fundamentalists I've ever meet, he actually defended market timing AND Mike Milken's practices)