patrick.net

"you know this market WILL eventually rebound"

WILL? O.K, I can go along with the WILL part but define "eventually" for me will ya'? Will that be in my lifetime?

Next thing we'll see will be "train wreck scenarios" from realtors that harken back to the days of old when people stayed in a home for the life of the mortgage.

SQT,

I just happened to think that submission might be more appropriate in the "bargaining phase". Have we really moved that swiftly?

SQT-

Thanks for posting that idiotic craigslist pep talk from the anonymous Amway hopeful. That mongoloid diatribe reminds me of the sales pep rallies we used to have to endure from lower management in the retail sales jobs of my yesteryear. The author of that post needs a polyester red sport coat just like the warranty-hucksters at Circuit City. THIS, my friends, is theatre.

George,

Yeah, I guess I can feel bad for the guy but this is the risk we take when things get too "cozy". Used to be in the stock market if a client refused to pay for a stock purchase they had previously agreed to and the stock was up the broker could just purchase the shares and dump them on the open market for a profit. They put an end to it b/c there was too much opportunity for manipulation.

"Oh, gee Mr. Client, I know I told you I could have this home sold at a healthy profit in 30 days so I'll tell you what I'm going to do". "Since we both well know your financial situation why don't I just buy it off of you at a loss and I promise we'll swing for the fences on the next one".

This has to stop. No more sleeping in the same bed.

Howdy folks,
Just got back from a week long vacation. I spent most of it driving around the state. While me and my wife and parents toured the state, it was interesting to note that of all the places we saw, most of the small towns seemed to be relying almost exclusively on RE for their local economies. In some towns, literally every other former barber shop and hardware store was a RE office. Driving through fields, we saw sign after sign after sign up out front with open house, for sale, and coming soon. It seemed that the percentage of homes for sale in these middle of nowhere places was much higher than that in the city.
My parents also filled me in on the home front in TN. Apparently there is now an unrelenting sea of people moving in from FL, NY, and MA. Unfortunatly, this is starting to cause some of the lower end housing prices to rise. New housing developments are now fairly rampant, and some of the same speculative fever that's gripped CA is now in full swing there as people from TN and other states are buying up homes.
My parents hadn't been in SF more than 10 minutes when we were on the BART when a young woman asked them where they were from ( they have strong accents). She replied that it must be nice to be able to afford to live there, and how nobody could afford here, and on and on( enter usual housing woas here). My parents are not used to hearing this kind of language that has become so commonplace here and were taken back at just how miserable this woman was.
My dad had the usual uninitiated response which was how in the hell do people afford to buy here? Interestingly enough, I had a hard time explaining to him the whole exotic loan/ CA is better than anywhere attitude that permeates the region. I don't think he understands even now.
For the 4th of July parade in town, both major RE offices were out and about walking around their floats, waving, smiling, etc. I found it interesting that out of all the bands, churches, dental offices, and police officers in the parade, they were the only ones that didn't get any applause or smiles from anyone. Sort of fitting if you ask me.

I had to share this little gem with all of you:

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/lgb/rfs/180744800.html

There are so many to choose from, but this might be my favorite quote:

"The house may be making more than you each year and it doesn't even commute".

Despite the fact that the author of this ad is a Neanderthal, this might actually be the cheapest house I've seen for sale in SoCal.

"single handedly prop the market up"

Well, even if that were so (and it ain't) I hardly think Craigslist is the proper format to "build credibility". Firstly IT'S FREE and secondly I believe there are links there "erotic services". Wouldn't be my first choice as an image builder. But then again these are desperate times.

Red Whine,

How do you guys come up with this stuff? I love the ones in LV where they say "FREE EQUITY". "This house was appraised at 360K and we're willing to sell it to you for 320K giving you 40K in FREE EQUITY!

Well genius, if it's appraised at 360K then you should be able to sell it for at least that and keep the "free equity" yourself! What? Can't sell it? Not even close? Oh you know what? Just never mind!

There is no way to arb between the underlying and the futures. Perhaps this is why the liquidity is not there. Isn't this similar to weather futures?

There is no way to arb between the underlying and the futures. Perhaps this is why the liquidity is not there. Isn’t this similar to weather futures?

You could arb the positions, but it would be difficult and very illiquid on the underlying side. For weather futures you could buy & sell concerns directly related to the weather region. Same with housing, but a bit more difficult.

You could create a hedge-hedge. For example, using options (or LEAPs) on Home Depot you could play the correlation of HD to the composite housing index. But this would a big statistical quant play, probably best left to quant hedge funds with the computing and brainpower to have a chance at pulling it off.

But with no liquidity to begin with, it's all a moot point. The operational hedgers need to come first before there's room for arbitrageurs and speculators.

You could create a hedge-hedge. For example, using options (or LEAPs) on Home Depot you could play the correlation of HD to the composite housing index.

This will not help the regional futures.

Did you guy hear? Microsoft is going to have an "iPod-killer" named "Argo".

Why would it name a music player after a sunken-battership-turned-spaceship?

SQT,

Exactly, posting an "open letter" on C/L is on about an equal footing with....... graffiti? While some of it can be entertaining it's hardly to be considered advice.

It is getting quiet in here.

This will not help the regional futures.

True enough. You could build a hedge-hedge for regional futures on weather in most cases, but doing so with housing is about impossible.

What about finding businesses with heavy cost sensitivity to real-estate prices as reflected through commercial leases? Assuming they exist and you could get reliable data to build correlations, you could hedge-hedge against them.

Peter P,

Sounds like Microsoft is trying to do something about Apple's hold on the portable digital music market and also venturing into PSP territory. If they're going to call it the Argo, why not just call it the Titanic and get it over with? It will be too large, too clunky and it'll be prone to sinking. Yeah, it's wireless, blah blah blah, but it will require multiple OS downloads every month to combat all the hackers. How many times have they tried to take out iTunes with money? I know Microsoft as an entity isn't stupid, but some of their products sure seem unstellar. Perhaps this particular war is directed at the PSP

What about finding businesses with heavy cost sensitivity to real-estate prices as reflected through commercial leases?

But commercial RE and residential RE can diverge greatly especially in psychology-driven markets.

Moreover, I think there needs to be sufficient speculative interest in those markets for them to be liquid. I am so surprised that the speculative interest is non-existent.

George,

That article gives me little comfort, even as schadenfreude. I fully expect the Boomer retirement income crisis to result in increasingly confiscatory taxation upon the younger generations. They won't tax other retirees, so the 20% or so Boomers who did save enough will be handsomely rewarded. The rest will just steal our money.

The way I suspect this will happen will be "borrowing against future taxes", or deficits. Then, when X rolls into retirement those who saved for the golden years will find no allies among either their own generation or the younger gens. We'll get taxed into oblivion.

I can actually see some future environment when elder Xers are viewed as having "greedily stolen from the government for years by not paying taxes on their ill-gotten 401k gains". Of course, by then no one will remember or want to hear about the 2 gens that passed before us which caused the problem; they can't be taxed or punished at that point. So, they'll go after anyone else with $.

Of course by that point I'll have long since retired to Mauritius.

Randy, this is why it is of extreme importance that we retire with the boomers. We do not have a lot of time. I would say at most 15-20 years.

George,

You know that's kind of funny coming from Paul B. Farrell. The guy totally bashes brokers and fin. planners (that typically advocate saving/investing) so it's odd to cite studies done by mutual fund companies when he usually touts "no-loads" to the hilt. You see, Paul is a "you guys can do this" kind of guy.

Where much of the negative savings comes in is that Joe Howmuchisthisamonth has been told that paying 1/2 of your take home pay to a mortgage company is the new "standard". Boomers are the focus of his article as they are next in line to retire but the truth is that FB's of any age aren't in any better shape financially, just a little younger.

Oh, btw I REFUSE to treat boomers lack of savings, foresight or general lack of reasoning skills as a freaking CRISIS! No one else should either! Just remember boomers; All you need is Love!

Apple and Microsoft shouldn't pend too much of their futures on portable MP3 and movie players. The real future is in cellphones. Pretty soon, most of your computer needs, entertainment, MP3's, movies, reading materials, and web browsing will all be on your phone. I'm fairly confident that at least apple knows this.I can imagine that "apple wireless", would position them into having a majority control of on on-phone media. If they aren't then they're stupid. Microsoft surely knows this as well, so perhaps they're throwing this player out as a temporary fix. MP3 players of today can be equated to the Ad-on FM tuners you could buy seperatly for your 72' Dodge charger back in the day.

The real future is in cellphones.

However...

A mobile computing device is too big to be used as a cellphone.
A cellphone is too small to be used as a mobile computing device.

I thought cellphone and electric shaver will converge ( ;) ) but that did not happen.

Peter,
I actually work for a company that researches and sells cellphones. The truth is that some of the up and coming phones have as much as an 800 mgz processor in them. That's more than 60% more than the current speed, and as time passes, a doubling in processing power is made available within a time frame of usually 7 months or less. That means that within a year and a half, cellphones will possibly have the same computing as a laptop. Some of the operating systems are getting awfully close to that you'd find on a computer as well. Some of the entertainment options now available for phones is impressive. The only thing that's stopping people from being able to watch movies outright on either cellphones or Ipods is a restriction from the movie industry.That and carriers are all trying to specialize their technologies so that you HAVE to have their service to watch movies, clips, music, etc. Bullcrap. Phones are becoming more like a conventional computer, so the need for carriers as sources for media is uneccesary. But they'll only be able to stall the enivitable for so long, or until they have caught up enough to find a way to regulate it.
As crazy as it sounds, the next tech and entertainment wave is and will be on cellphones. You should see some of the options

I like the idea of having centrally run main computer and have cheap receiver devices. I definitely see iPod (and GPS and swiss army knives) and cellphone devices converging. Not quite so sure about the oncoming convergence with electric shavers though.

Is there now a razer with five blades? Anyone tried it?

The truth is that some of the up and coming phones have as much as an 800 mgz processor in them. That’s more than 60% more than the current speed, and as time passes, a doubling in processing power is made available within a time frame of usually 7 months or less.

True. But the problem is in the tiny screen. Unless they come up with foldable/flexible screens, size will be a problem.

SHTF,

I think the big challenge for cellphone makers is the small size of the screen. I don't really see how that could be changed without affecting their portability.

DinOR:
"Just remember boomers; All you need is Love!"

Right! All we are saying -- is give peace a chance!

Maybe create a boomer death cult will take care of the problem.

I think those older HP Palmtop computers (Windows CE) have the best form factor for mobile computing. Too bad they do not make them anymore.

The size of Nokia 9300 is not too bad as a compromise, but the screen still needs to be quite a bit bigger.

Maybe create a boomer death cult will take care of the problem.

Can we have a food cult instead?

I definitely see iPod (and GPS and swiss army knives) and cellphone devices converging.

I have a Samsung Blade phone with a built-in MP3 player. However, I do not know how to use the music feature. It is just too difficult to use. I think many people will find convergent devices too confusing. Personally, I prefer to have a button for each functionality. Menus are just too difficult to navigate.

The screen size isn't a problem. it's a UI issue. Remember that the earliest TV sets only had a 2" screen, yet people thought of them as luxory items. Screen technology is also getting a lot better. There is more clarity and sharpness, along with overall more brightness. I'm fairly firm in my belief that phones will become the new form for daily computing needs. It's just a matter of getting people acustomed to working in a diffrent manner.

The screen size isn’t a problem. it’s a UI issue.

How can you read a web-page on a tiny screen? I am already having trouble with resolution less than 1600x1200.

Font selection as well as the way you lay out the page. That means that instead of having a full page length of text across the screen, you have the same font size but only 25-30 characters across. Also- fonts make all the diffrence. Some are easy to read at small sizes. The resolution of the screen is important as well, with newer screens being fairly high.

Some are easy to read at small sizes. The resolution of the screen is important as well, with newer screens being fairly high.

But I doubt I can read fonts much smaller than those on newspapers regardless of resolution.

Still, we need to have at least 4" or greater width to work. Preferably 6 to 7", that's going to impact size. That's probably fine for anyone with a bag and not much bigger than blackberries are now.

Well...
I can't go into detail as to what I work on specifically, but I can say that within a year or so, cellphones will have a lot more entertainment options than exsists now.

I can’t go into detail as to what I work on specifically, but I can say that within a year or so, cellphones will have a lot more entertainment options than exsists now.

Perhaps condo-flipping directly from your phone. :)

MMOG? :)