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Robert Shiller Destroys The Idea Of Investing In A House
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2013 Feb 7, 3:07am 15,383 views 31 comments
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Stocks are just a frigging high frequency casino at this point. Unless you are able to trade in milliseconds, you are going to get the gross end of the stick.
You can simply buy the S&P index and do not fight with the machine. But that assumes it does not come up with a big crash, which may take years to recover.
Stock gain was choppy as a function of time. Most of the recent gain came from 82-00. Will a bull market like that comes back in the near future? I kind of doubt.
Blur your eyes for a minute. What do you see when you look at the chart you posted? A consistent upwards projection and one that has been doing so since 1902. Are there ups and downs? Sure. But as I said, the trend has gone up over the long term and done so at a fairly reliable clip. Its all about averages. If you were to compare a chart like this to a chart of how real estate has performed over the same period, you'd see the difference.
RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks
2013 Feb 7, 6:43am
who says buying a home is an investment? he's arguing a point no one has made. what a pointless article.
companies generate profit.
houses do not.
good grief. Do you think before you type? what the hell do you call rent?
the context of the article was clearly as a primary resident being an investment.
shiller even said rentals were a sensible investment.
i know you can't read, like to argue and call people names because you have nothing better to do, so i'm not sure why i bother explaining.
anyway, i guess you're back on my ignore list.
What? My house was an investment? How could that be? I am just going to live here. This is what happens when the immigrants who can only see the real estate as an investment and have no respect for people or human rights come here in mass.
It is a mistake to compare primary residence to perfomance of stocks/bonds/mutual funds. The primary purpose is to compare expected lifetime housing costs. Speaking of which a typical apartment in bay area is now over twice as much as in the 1990 and a typical market value of an owner occupied dwelling is twice what it was in 1990 which is consistent with theory that housing appreciated with rate of inflation in the long term. I believe that it's only appropriate to compare historical returns of real estate with stocks/bond/funds for investment properties, not primary residences.
Y
2013 Feb 7, 12:46pm
How much did Rover pay??
I moved to the south bay in 1987. Hermosa beach specifically. I shared a 2 bedroom really crappy little apartment on manhattan ave, right off the beach, my share of the rent was like 450, or 500 + 1/2 the bills
Raw
2013 Feb 7, 1:13pm
....."As usual, Shiller was reluctant to declare that home prices had bottomed. He explained that the housing market is a speculative one and that there's no telling which way prices would go tomorrow. He also explained that there wasn't much reason to believe that home prices would appreciate back to levels seen during the last cycle."
He is saying two different things in the same paragraph.
I think he personally believes home prices should be crashing, not skyrocketing as they are.
He understands numbers, not human emotions.
good grief. Do you think before you type? what the hell do you call rent?
rent is what most of you pay off your subsidized loans with.
Stock gain was choppy as a function of time. Most of the recent gain came from 82-00. Will a bull market like that comes back in the near future? I kind of doubt.
Blur your eyes for a minute. What do you see when you look at the chart you posted? A consistent upwards projection and one that has been doing so since 1902. Are there ups and downs? Sure. But as I said, the trend has gone up over the long term and done so at a fairly reliable clip. Its all about averages. If you were to compare a chart like this to a chart of how real estate has performed over the same period, you'd see the difference.
I did not argue that housing is better investment than stock generally. What I care is the entry point. I want to wait till the next pullback to decide entering the stock market or not. Also, it is not fair to compare nominal price inflation between stocks and housing since you can leverage in housing with much less risk.
since you can leverage in housing with much less risk.
you might want to re-check recent history on that 'less risky' move...
. Down the street, there were 2 bedroom 2 bath condos in Redondo for under $100K.
lol!
no wait.. that cant be true..everyone says CA especially SoCal was always really really expensive.
how else could those surfers afford that crazy lifestyle...
He understands numbers, not human emotions.
Yeah that is why he wrote a book called Irrational Exuberance
http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/
He is explaining it is all about emotions and that the numbers don't add up and you are arguing he doesn't understand emotions.
Dumbass!
I guess that is because what is happening in Spain is what would be happening here without the Fed.
To say Robert Shiller does not understand human emotion when he wrote a book on it is pretty fucking clueless.
I think the political climate is what will make the housing market appreciate in at least the short term future. Most polls show that the majority of people consider jobs to be the most important need of the country. However, 4 years of priming the pump and a depreciating dollar hasn't done much in that arena where demographics, world trade and overpriced domestic labor costs have worked against creating domestic jobs. So the only option that the president has is to divert attention away from his failures by pushing things like gun control, immigration and domestic consumption like houses.
http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-shiller-home-investment-a-fad-2013-2
www.ymotivate.com
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