patrick.net

Chatsworth has terrible school district. Why dont you buy in las virgenes SD?

Just get an IO ARM loan from uninobank and add 300k to your price point. No reason to be forced to make principal payments- with IO arm you can always make them anyway.

PockyClipsNow, you're right about the terrible school district, I don't have any kids at the moment.. Just wanted to purchase it because of the location and it not being too far away from the freeway.

There is also a big difference in summer between Chatsworth and the Calabasas area. My friend has a pool house in Chatsworth and somedays it is too hot to even go out to the pool! Moorpark is actually much nicer in summer-but don't know where you are commuting to work.

Well school district is the main reason people pay 300k extra in LA.

The LAUSD refugess will pay top dollar to get thier 3 kids into a good school district.

People compare the cost of private school for 2 or 3 kids, then decide its WAY BETTER and cheaper to just pay a lot more for a house in a good public SD. Been happening 30 years+. Witness the entire conejo valley and how nice it is compared to chatsworth/reseda/pacoima. Its like a different country, no comparison really.

So Im saying you better not overpay for a crappy SD, resale will be tough. At these high prices if house prices tank your fucked anyway, just borrow as much as you can as cheap as you can - really no other good options if you want a house in CA.

SFace, it's because of Patrick.net I have 25% + to put down on a home and not 3% (FHA) like everyone else... Most buyers are still over paying because of FHA and Low rates.. (No skin in the game) Time will tell.

Well good luck. I'm still shocked at the NOTHING FOR SALE.
There is like one house under 700k in all of agoura now.
ONE.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Agoura-Hills/5833-Cape-Horn-Dr-91301/home/3393914

And of course its crap and small, this low inventory will probably mean 25% higher prices a year from now.

Wow , that is interesting. Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park still have a few in the 400k+ range. I remember checking last year and they had plenty in the 300k+ range and even a few houses below 300k. That is some fast appreciation.

http://www.redfin.com/homes-for-sale#!market=socal&region_id=19798&region_type=6&v=8

SFace, The difference is your difference is solved vs. your problem is escalating. We shall see, I'm netting $5,300 after all the BS taxes, so if I don't buy a house in the next five years, i'll still be happier then those who do today, cash is king, remember that.

I bought houses in bubble years of 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004.

Then sold them all.

What I learned (could be wrong here in this cycle) is to buy asap and sell when you gotta fat profit. You cant wait for a buyers market to return - it will be 10 years from now and you will probably be paying the same price as today. (look at the recent bottom in 09 to 11 when prices in coastal cali really only hit 2002 levels give or take a year) Now we are at 2004 levels and touching 2005. So had you waited from 2002 until 2012 to buy you just waited for no reason to pay the same price.

SFace says

Apparently you listened to the Patrick crowd so you didn't like a buyer's market. That was Fall 2008-Fall 2011.

That happened to me too, to an extent. I started coming around in early / mid 2011, but wasn't really in a position to buy a house until later that year. I finally bought early this year (still with some reservations) -- in taking a look at the big picture I think I got lucky with what I bought, and I dodged a bullet. Maybe I'm just rationalizing, but I don't think so. I think the bearish attitudes around here (along with some convincing arguments) kept me a bit too conservative for a bit too long. It almost cost me.

Yeah the bears here sometimes made a convincing case.
All wrong of course.
"with high student loan debt kids cant afford a house" (bullshit! I read avg debt was only 23k per student, nothing!)

"boomers will retire and try selling to a much smaller generation who cant afford thier homes anyway" (hahaha,nothing 2% mortgages wont solve)

on and on....

The agent told the seller to list at higher price because there are bigger suckers waiting to pay more.

PockyClipsNow says

What I learned (could be wrong here in this cycle) is to buy asap and sell when you gotta fat profit.

ugh ! seriously.. whats the point ? driving higher living costs.

SFace says

Apparently you listened to the Patrick crowd so you didn't like a buyer's market. That was Fall 2008-Fall 2011.

Fall 2008 was a buyers market? really?

wow 2008 was FIVE YEARS AGO. Of course prices should be going by up now, down market is always shorter than up market I suppose. Ive been watching bubbles so long, I got old.

noshow says

someone else can have it... Thanks to FHA.

Don't be cynical. FHA might be a credible instrument in some of the more distressed markets like Orlando, FL. But there are plenty of juicier turkeys here in CA, where the seller can be choosy and take the best offer from a pool of pent up 20%+ DP's.

This little tidbit from the listing's agent comments is fun to read:
"Back yard is not landscaped, has a BBQ and Jacuzzi. Home has minimal upgrades and appears to be a flip."

A friend of mine and his girlfriend are looking to buy specifically in the city of san francisco. They are not flexible - don't want to live in a suburb. According to him prices have went up $70,000 in the last 6 months for properties that they are looking at. His agent has been working him good with "if you wait you won't be able to afford it" angle. He got a rent control pad and so does his girl - the prices on properties that agent has been showing them is over 20 annual rents on their 2 pads combined! He was falling for the panic that realtor has generated. So I had to explain to him the 15-20 annual rent theory to make sure that he doesn't overpay for his living costs. I think I may have saved him from making a rather expensive mistake cause S.F is nuts.

robertoaribas says

I don't quite get this... If I was in a city with rent control, I'd get a place I like, even if it was pricey now, and sit in it forever... and ever... and ever...

Yeah the problem is that often situations change and you don't want your rent-controlled apartment anymore. It may work out nicely if you're single for life, but for many that's a big price to pay for cheap rent.

In the above post it sounds like each person has a 1+1 or studio and they'd probably like something bigger. Too bad they can't transfer the rent-control to a 2+2 or home.

In Santa Monica I know someone that didn't want to let go of their rent controlled studio after they bought a home so they kept it just to store surfboards.

donjumpsuit says

All you have to do is add a step between (a) and (b) that goes like this.

(b.2) Buy $34000 worth of Gold at $100/oz in 1975

Then you would be able to play out the scenario.

I have no idea how much the 34k home would sell for in 2013, but I don't think you could buy gold for $100/oz in 1975. $150-175 more like it.

b2. Buy $34k worth of gold @ 150/oz in 1975
b3. Pay 28% tax on that gold leaving you 250k left to spend
3. Buy a place in the midwest somewhere?

Doesnt really matter, it makes the nominal argument stupid either way.

SFace says

yep, Oct 2008 - Dec 2008 is when you couldn't see anyone going to the open house or auction. You could have bidded 90% of asking price (that was reduced multiples times and that is a serious winning offer.)

Perhaps you can say it was a buyers market cuz competition was low, however could you say it was a buyer's market in terms of price? 2008 was basically 1-2 years off peak bubble prices.

Meccos says

2008 was basically 1-2 years off peak bubble prices.

Sellers were panicked, but you are correct many looked at what the house was worth a year earlier.

There were however many sellers who saw all equity wiped out.

So from July 2007 until December 2008 there was plenty for a seller to be concerned about.

The tax credit was like a bone to the buyer, and it started to loosen the market place. There was a lot to buy, from banks also. It was a golden era.

donjumpsuit says

Why not just pay the bank in gold when you purchase the house?

Don't ever trade GOLD for wood and nails. The later has no real value beside what the next person in the Ponzi scheme thinks it does. Keep the damn GOLD and live above your means by renting. :)

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Don't ever trade GOLD for wood and nails. The later has no real value beside
what the next person in the Ponzi scheme thinks it does. Keep the damn GOLD and
live above your means by renting. :)

Gold is only worth what the next person thinks it is.

At least you can build a shelter with wood and nails...

robertoaribas says

3. gold benefits from a "flight to quality" during financial uncertainty,
like, say we've had for the past six years. The uncertainty will end, making a
big risk for a gold sell off.

This.

Wait for gold price coming down and will order some before the next downturn.