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Feel like I missed the boat in the bay area


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2013 Mar 29, 1:56am   29,172 views  115 comments

by jdubbs29   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Well, I stayed out of the craziness from 2005-2010, but started to look about 18 months ago. Found a place I wasn't absolutely crazy about, but was doable financially, and in a good area for $800K, well within my budget with about $200K down.
Didn't do it, though, and now that same place is on the market for $1.3M...18 months later!

I feel like I should have pulled the trigger back then. There wasn't a ton of inventory, but my payment would be doable.

I'm in a rent controlled apt, so at least my rent is cheap, but considering a buy out and now the real estate market has gone crazy here again. It doesn't make any sense, but his herd mentality is very real.

(sigh) very tough to figure things out here.

#housing

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57   yup1   2013 Mar 29, 5:16pm  

Homeboy says

Yeah, I missed math class 'cuz I was fucking your mom. She said she was sorry
she had you.

My mom is 72, I hope you enjoyed that old piece of ass!

58   Homeboy   2013 Mar 29, 5:17pm  

Gee, George - that loan has a lower payment. It must be better.

59   Homeboy   2013 Mar 29, 5:19pm  

yup1 says

My mom is 72, I hope you enjoyed that old piece of ass!

She was in her prime back when I boned her. Sucked dick like a champ!

60   yup1   2013 Mar 29, 5:21pm  

Homeboy says

Fuck you, asshole. Take your childish sarcasm and shove it up your ass.
Fucking troll.

I see is doesn't take much to spin you up. Now if you would like to grow up a little you can always try and explain why you do not understand how rising interest rates are going to impact your investment.

61   Homeboy   2013 Mar 29, 5:36pm  

yup1 says

if interest rates rise substancially over the next few years home prices will tank.

Yeah, everyone knows rising interest rates cause home prices to "tank".

Oh, wait - no they don't.

62   thomaswong.1986   2013 Mar 29, 5:40pm  

yup1 says

You will become a zombie homeowner if they don't. You will not be able to move because you will not be able to afford the higher payment. Again the very definition of a bubble.

tanking home prices back a rational normal levels is good..what good are higher home prices if it puts your income in jeopardy... kiss your job/career goodbye.

63   Homeboy   2013 Mar 29, 5:40pm  

yup1 says

I see is doesn't take much to spin you up. Now if you would like to grow up a little you can always try and explain why you do not understand how rising interest rates are going to impact your investment.

No, it takes a lot. It takes an asshole troll like you, who doesn't know what the fuck he's talking about, and is saying a bunch of shit that has nothing to do with anything, just to try to get a rise out of people.

My house is not an "investment". It is a place for me to live. If the value of my house declines in the future, I am much better off having a fixed-rate loan. If I had a NINJA loan that's going to blow up in my face, I might be forced to sell. If I'm not able to, I would lose the house. It happened to millions of people. Do you ever look at a newspaper, by chance?

Do you have an intelligent explanation for why a 3/1 interest only ARM is a better choice than a 30-year fixed rate right now? Or do you want to keep acting like a little jackass?

64   yup1   2013 Mar 29, 5:46pm  

Now inflation adjust that chart and you will see real prices flat to lower. You can also see that most of the gains are after the short term rate spike. In fact all of the rate spikes lead to lower home prices and all of the drops lead to higher prices. Thanks for backing me up.

65   yup1   2013 Mar 29, 5:49pm  

Homeboy says

Yeah, I missed math class 'cuz I was fucking your mom. She said she was sorry
she had you.

You say this and call me a troll? What are you 16? Grow up you little bitch.

66   Homeboy   2013 Mar 29, 5:49pm  

yup1 says

Now inflation adjust that chart and you will see real prices flat to lower. You can also see that most of the gains are after the short term rate spike. In fact all of the rate spikes lead to lower home prices and all of the drops lead to higher prices. Thanks for backing me up.

You must be looking at a different chart. Now I know why your mom kept saying you were "special".

67   Homeboy   2013 Mar 29, 5:50pm  

yup1 says

You say this and call me a troll? What are you 16? Grow up you little bitch.

I see it doesn't take much to spin you up. LOL.

68   yup1   2013 Mar 29, 5:52pm  

Homeboy says

Yeah, I missed math class 'cuz I was fucking your mom. She said she was sorry
she had you.

I am sorry your dad was sodimizing you daily.

69   yup1   2013 Mar 29, 5:54pm  

Homeboy says

Do you have an intelligent explanation for why a 3/1 interest only ARM is a
better choice than a 30-year fixed rate right now?

As soon as you give an intelligent explanation for your belief that rising rates will make your homes value increase, and don't just link somebody elses chart.....

70   yup1   2013 Mar 29, 5:56pm  

Homeboy says

You must be looking at a different chart. Now I know why your mom kept saying
you were "special".

I see your fathers sodomy went straight to your head. LOL.

71   upisdown   2013 Mar 30, 12:52am  

yup1 says

I see your fathers sodomy went straight to your head.

Thanks for the chuckle.

72   Homeboy   2013 Mar 30, 5:46am  

robertoaribas says

well, in fairness, the spike of interest rates in the 80's, together with a recession in the defense contractor industry did toss a pretty big housing price drop at southern California.

It probably was the recession that did it. Home prices didn't fall until 1990, years after interest rates had already come down.

73   Homeboy   2013 Mar 30, 8:45am  

SFace says

To me 30 year fixed rate is expensive insurance which may benefit some people and useless for others.

Explain how a 30 year fixed is "expensive insurance"? If you have an ARM with an introductory interest-only teaser rate, when the payment resets, you have to start paying down the ENTIRE principal of the loan. That's MUCH more expensive than a fixed rate loan.

74   SparrowBell   2013 Mar 30, 9:39am  

Maybe, I have to question a Wellsfargo banker that recently pre-approved a non-conforming loan for 3.72% 30-year fixed ...

SFace says

Everyone who borrows above 625K are on floating rate (5 year fixed perhaps). I repeat, no one uses a fixed rate mortgage so need to talk about a 30 year mortgage in silicon Valley. It doesn't exist.

The type of loan Porky described is the norm. (80%)

75   bmwman91   2013 Mar 30, 10:08am  

My wife and I just got pre-approved for a $625k 30yr fixed 3.75% loan (w/ $1600 origination fee) by WF (so, purchase price of up to $800k based on how much of our cash we are willing to use). No documentation submitted whatsoever, although the fact that we have hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash at WF probably registered in their system somewhere. We didn't provide any account # or statements, but I assume that they could use our SSN to see that. Anyway, all we gave was SSNs for a credit check (and we are both flawless there) and stated income. We could have been approved for up to an $800k loan at 3.875%, but we wanted to avoid the jumbo complications, and we don't want to spend that much anyway.

I spent a fair amount of time talking to the WF rep about the state of things and asked about what he sees going on in the SFBA. He said that 80-90% of WF mortgage activity in the SFBA is refi's by existing homeowners trying to lock in low rates, and HELOCs by existing owners to try to buy investment properties and boats/cars/shit. The remaining 10-20% is first time buyers, many of which are trying to buy sub-$600k properties. My wife and I are apparently exceedingly rare animals around here in that we make good money and live conservatively (per Mr. WF). His take on the economy is that the entire thing is a giant hollow shell with little more than speculative asset bubbles keeping things afloat, and that the SFBA is a fairly lousy place for anyone trying to live a peaceful middle class life: it's a neurotic mix of workaholics and desperate foreign money laundering that is, and will probably continue, driving the cost of living into the stratosphere. His candid advice to me was, IF we buy a house here soon, to be prepared to unload it before the end of 2015 and either sit tight or leave thereafter. That was, of course, "NOT" investing advice lol. And of course, it is all taken with a grain of salt. Nobody really knows the future, but his commentary seemed to be in reasonable alignment with current reality.

76   lostand confused   2013 Mar 30, 10:24am  

I am seriously thinking of moving out and this time for good. My last stint in the midwest I shared a two bedroom with a room mate and my share including all utilities/cable/internet never went over $ 480 a month . Here-dear lord. My colleague in Houston was paying $705 a month for a 2 br apt with pool and gated and they raised the rent by 5 bucks a month and he was complaining.

The midwest is too extreme in weather, but Texas is looking extremely attractive. A 200-300k house in a very nice neigbourhood or low rents and it gives you a lot of cushion in assets and money and you can take a nice vacation to other places.

77   bmwman91   2013 Mar 30, 10:32am  

Check out Seattle. I spent the entire month of March up there for work, and have been up there ~40 times in the last 14 months for work. It is better than the SFBA in more ways than it is worse. The people there are so much better, cost of living is less, it has VASTLY more beautiful scenery (when the weather is good, which is actually fairly often outside of Nov-Feb) and there are plenty of good jobs. Yeah, winter time sort of sucks and people up there drive slow as hell, but the quality of life for a middle class family is genuinely higher there, period.

My wife and I are going to make some offers on the few properties here that seem to be worthwhile, and if/when we are outbid we are packing up and leaving for Seattle. My employer will let me keep my CA salary (14% higher than WA employees due to cost of living) and I bet I can work something in about them finding a position for my wife. We'll rent there for a couple of years and see how things play out. If we do settle up there, it'll be because we love it. If we want to come back, we'll be sitting on an enormous pile of cash since we were making "CA money" and renting for a hell of a lot less than we currently do here.

EDIT: I keep hitting the damn "Dislike" link instead of "Edit" lol. Patrick, can you move the Dislike link away from the Edit link?

78   SJ   2013 Mar 30, 10:42am  

Florida looks good to me as well. Plus I love to scuba dive and the Caribbean is close by for weekend trips. California is ok but still far away from Hawaii and nice beaches far south in Mexico.

79   Homeboy   2013 Mar 30, 12:53pm  

SFace says

If your goal is to minimize interest expense, you pay off the principal a lot faster @2.75% than 3.75%.

It's more like 3.25%. And it's a teaser rate. It doesn't stay there for the life of the loan. The only "trade off" is that you only have to pay the interest for the introductory period, whereas with a fixed-rate loan you DO have to pay the principal right away, but get a better deal overall.

80   yup1   2013 Mar 30, 12:59pm  

upisdown says

yup1 says



I see your fathers sodomy went straight to your head.


Thanks for the chuckle.

Anytime ;)

81   ducsingle5313   2013 Mar 30, 2:03pm  

bmwman91 says

No documentation submitted whatsoever, although the fact that we have hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash at WF probably registered in their system somewhere.

I'm curious as to why you have this much in cash parked at Wells Fargo?

82   ducsingle5313   2013 Mar 30, 2:23pm  

bmwman91 says

Check out Seattle.

Also remember no state income tax in Washington, so your California salary is boosted even further.

I'm pretty much in the same boat (although I'm single) in that I could afford to buy a $900k - $1M place in the SFBA, but emulating my co-workers who pay $1800/month in property taxes doesn't really appeal to me. You have to wonder whether even high wage earners will have to leave the area in retirement due to the high tax burdens - - - of course excluding Baby Boomers whose 1970's property tax bills are subsidized by new Gen-X and Gen-Y buyers.

I would definitely make a move to Seattle if somebody offered me a job there at close to my current pay.

83   Homeboy   2013 Mar 30, 3:21pm  

yup1 says

upisdown says

yup1 says



I see your fathers sodomy went straight to your head.


Thanks for the chuckle.

Anytime ;)

Still talking to yourself?

84   Buster   2013 Mar 30, 3:38pm  

ducsingle5313 says

I'm pretty much in the same boat (although I'm single) in that I could afford to buy a $900k - $1M place in the SFBA, but emulating my co-workers who pay $1800/month in property taxes doesn't really appeal to me.

Your property tax on a 900-1M property would probably be more like ~1000/month.

85   ducsingle5313   2013 Mar 31, 2:24am  

Buster says

Your property tax on a 900-1M property would probably be more like ~1000/month.

True, but my co-workers have dual income and bought more expensive places. $1000/month in property taxes is still pretty nutty, especially when your neighbors with identical houses who bought in the early 70's are only paying $100/month.

86   gsr   2013 Mar 31, 4:57am  

bmwman91 says

Check out Seattle.

BTW, the home prices have started going up in Seattle as well. Bidding wars are back on the eastside.

87   ducsingle5313   2013 Mar 31, 11:39am  

Seattle vs. San Francisco
Comparing Living in Seattle/Tacoma and the San Francisco Bay Area

http://seattle.about.com/od/familylifestyles/a/Seattle-Vs-San-Francisco.htm

88   yup1   2013 Mar 31, 11:40am  

Homeboy says

Still talking to yourself?

Still getting skull fucked by your father?

89   bmwman91   2013 Mar 31, 11:44am  

ducsingle5313 says

bmwman91 says

No documentation submitted whatsoever, although the fact that we have hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash at WF probably registered in their system somewhere.

I'm curious as to why you have this much in cash parked at Wells Fargo?

Various reasons, many of which are my wife's personal ones. I keep mine at ING where I at least get a 0.75% APR. I have been working on convincing her that there are better places for it, but at the end of the day we don't really care. Actually living life and having zero financial worries takes precedence over constantly "managing our money." Yeah inflation nibbles away at it, but there are worse problems to have, like not having the money in the first place.

90   wave9x   2013 Mar 31, 12:03pm  

I moved to Seattle from SF. After 2 years I moved back. Don't underestimate how depressing the cloudy weather gets.

91   thomaswong.1986   2013 Mar 31, 12:42pm  

Tim Aurora says

Come to Atlanta, one of the most affordable cities in the world, along with Dallas

my former employer did just that, they shipped part of companies operations out to Georgia. others moved to Austin, Nebraska and other states.

http://www.pressheretv.com/ep-137-advice-for-zuckerberg/

Scott McNealy says "get out of California"

92   yup1   2013 Mar 31, 12:51pm  

Tim Aurora says

Come to Atlanta, one of the most affordable cities in the world, along with
Dallas

Hmmm California or Hotlanta? Might as go rent one of Robertos slums in the frying pan that is Phoenix ;)

93   yup1   2013 Mar 31, 1:22pm  

robertoaribas says

Also, not sure you'd pass my background check.

Well I guess you wouldn't pass it either because I make way more than a junior college teacher........

94   Homeboy   2013 Mar 31, 1:58pm  

yup1 says

Well I guess you wouldn't pass it either because I make way more than a junior college teacher........

I know your mom used to make a lot as a hooker, but her tits are pretty saggy now. Being able to take out her teeth is an advantage, though.

95   yup1   2013 Mar 31, 2:00pm  

Homeboy says

I know your mom used to make a lot as a hooker, but her tits are pretty saggy
now. Being able to take out her teeth is an advantage, though.

I see your dad skull fucked your brains out.

96   Homeboy   2013 Mar 31, 2:17pm  

yup1 says

I see your dad skull fucked your brains out

Duh, thanks for the laugh.

Signed,

yup1's sock puppet

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