patrick.net

In the far east they have massive road construction, all done with hand tools. By design?

No Longer Have To Work

Still Gotta Pay The Rent, though

That's why the George Jetson economy of working 2 hrs a week hasn't come to pass.

A gallon of milk is ~$3.35 now, that's 60c in 1970 money, half the actual cost in 1970 ($1.15).

But what my parents were renting for $300/mo in 1973 now rents for $1700+.

errc says

So what do you democrats propose as a solution?

Dunno, got any ideas?

errc says

So what do you democrats propose as a solution?

A much smaller population of humans roaming the earth would do the trick.

JustInTime says

In any case, of course Austrians have an answer, which is well-summarized by
Hazlitt:

Here's where Hazlitt is wrong:

"The manufacturer must use these extra profits in at least one of three ways, and possi­bly he will use part of them in all three: (1) he will use the extra profits to expand his operations by buying more machines to make more coats; or (2) he will invest the extra profits in some other in­dustry; or (3) he will spend the extra profits on increasing his own consumption. Whichever of these three courses he takes, he will in­crease employment."

He's basically arguing trickle down economics. Which I hope has been pretty well debunked by now. Give the gains to the 1% and they simply hoard them. No new jobs are created.

ducsingle5313 says

A much smaller population of humans roaming the earth would do the trick.

This may be what happens.
It took me a while to understand Nassim Taleb's quote to the effect that if you want to know what is going on, read history not "the news".
The miraculous arc of progress that some people anticipate has historically been dramatically interrupted, sometimes for centuries, by resource depletion.
The fabulous new Iwhatever (or the magic "marketplace") will not replace much needed new energy sources or depleting essential minerals.

marcus says

effects of republican policies of the last 30 years, and the growing wealth gap, and the decreased upward mobility in the U.S, is that socialism is going to become a viable and popular idea again.

The less willing the corporations and rich are to "redistribute" the worse they will pay the piper in the end.

The problem is the transition period, 2020 to 2035. During that era, the leading AI/Robotic technocrats will be the power brokers of the times. A lot of traditional professions will start to decouple, in the wake of emerging technologies, which can pretty much do anyone's job. So while socialism/welfare state concepts will seem counterculture, between 2013 and let's say 2025, afterwards, it'll be kinda obvious as former high income pathologists, air traffic controllers, actuarial fellows, etc, are sleeping in tents alongside waiters, bus drivers, & sushi chefs.

Rin says

it'll be kinda obvious as former high income pathologists, air traffic controllers, actuarial fellows, etc, are sleeping in tents with waiters, bus drivers, & sushi chefs.

I think you're right that it will in time become obvious. But this is exagerated. Medical professionals, actuaries etc, their job becomes easier because of tools, but it may in many cases become more important that they are competent enough to understand the limitations of the tools, and to contribute to improving on the ways they are used, and to oversee their proper use.

An actuary is a great example. They already have tools that do the Math for them, the same with engineers. These software tools have existed for a while now. It doesn't mean that they don't have to study a lot of Math in college, or that this won't continue to be the case. The people using the tools will need to understand what the tools are doing, just as they do now.

Later though ? If and when AI gets to where robots are building better robots ? Say in 2050 (if there aren't some major interruptions). I can't even guess what those times will look like. Whether they occur in 2050, or 200 years later because of some kinds major interruptions in the progress, economics then and the social implications are impossible to predict.

Possibly it will be interrupted by geopolitical problems that arise in part out of fear of how resources are distributed when technology gets to that level.

It doesn't need to be everybody out of a job, only most.

Yes, you'll probably still need people to design robots, design financial software, etc. but the "Grunt Work" will disappear. In other words, there will only be a need for the top 10% of the profession, and everyone else can go hang. Competent people need no longer apply - only geniuses.

The problem is simple: How many are employed in manufacturing vs. R&D? It's a 10:1 ratio. 98% of the people at Apple aren't involved in developing new products, but rather accounting, marketing, admin, etc.

humanity says

An actuary is a great example. They already have tools that do the Math for them, the same with engineers. These software tools have existed for a while now. It doesn't mean that they don't have to study a lot of Math in college, or that this won't continue to be the case. The people using the tools will need to understand what the tools are doing, just as they do now.

Here's the thing, actuaries are an expensive overhead. If I'm an owner of an insurance company, do I want to hire 20-40 persons for a fixed cost of $6M-$8M per year? Or, do I want 2-3 certified actuarial fellows ($800K/yr) for legal reasons (plus client facing activities) and expert systems to do all the work? You see, the drive of business is the latter scenario.

thunderlips11 says

Yes, you'll probably still need people to design robots, design financial software, etc.

... there will only be a need for the top 10% of the profession

Yes, these designers, with code generating tools & automated QA systems, will be the elite tracks of the next 20 to 30 years. And it won't be the top 10%, more like the top 1-3%.

This thread makes me wonder why the profession of pharmacist still exists. How hard would it be to build and automated prescription dispensery that dosen't cost a few hundred grand a year to operate?

thunderlips11 says

but the "Grunt Work" will disappear.

youre almost right: the Grunts will disappear. What makes you think these people will still be around?

New Renter says

This thread makes me wonder why the profession of pharmacist still exists. How hard would it be to build and automated prescription dispensery that dosen't cost a few hundred grand a year to operate?

Pharmacists are the licensed gatekeepers to the world of scheduled substances. Legal precedent protects their work. What's interesting, however, is that the Pharmacy assistants, unlike licensed Pharmacists, earn some $35K-$45K, and not six figures. I suspect that the robots will replace 100% of pharmacy assistants at the drug store while the licensed pharmacists will provide a type of toxicological/pharmacological consulting service not too distinct from an internal medicine doctor. I mean they're already offering shingles and flu shots at minimal costs, so why not expand their role and force GP physicians to move up the specialty chain.

errc says

So what do you democrats propose as a solution?

Aggressive trade embargos and high tariffs. Monetary war designed to undermine the economies of other countries. Domestic unrest due to lack of jobs. Stagnating world economy since nobody is trading. Stagflation. Ultra hostile international political environment due to failing policies. Thermo-nuclear war.

Rin says

New Renter says

This thread makes me wonder why the profession of pharmacist still exists. How hard would it be to build and automated prescription dispensery that dosen't cost a few hundred grand a year to operate?

Pharmacists are the licensed gatekeepers to the world of scheduled substances. Legal precedent protects their work. What's interesting, however, is that the Pharmacy assistants, unlike licensed Pharmacists, earn some $35K-$45K, and not six figures. I suspect that the robots will replace 100% of pharmacy assistants at the drug store while the licensed pharmacists will provide a type of toxicological/pharmacological consulting service not too distinct from an internal medicine doctor. I mean they're already offering shingles and flu shots at minimal costs, so why not expand their role and force GP physicians to move up the specialty chain.

A robot is perfectly capable of accepting a prescription, accurately measuring out powders, mixing said powders, and pressing said mixtures into pill form. It could also make custom liquicaps and dispense all of that to the appropriate recipient. That's pretty much all the grunt work.

So what IS it licenced pharmacists do that is not possible to automate even with today's tech? I don't buy the gatekeeper argument, that's simply rhetoric for protectionism. There is no reason a machine can't be made more secure than a human being AND be available 24/7/365 much as ATMs are.

New Renter says

So what IS it licenced pharmacists do that is not possible to automate even with today's tech? I don't buy the gatekeeper argument, that's simply rhetoric for protectionism

Well, that's what it is ... protectionism. A drug store chain, with a licensed pharmacist on board, can't be sued or criminally charged for dispensing drugs w/o DEA (or whatever alphabet soup agency) clearance. This is why there's a permanent wage gap between a pharm assistant and a pharmacist. The latter's got the law on its side.

Also don't make the robots with a face please. One thing I've learned is that once you make them look like people they want to take over.

epitaph says

Also don't make the robots with a face please. One thing I've learned is that once you make them look like people they want to take over.

I hope the robots of the future work better than my damn Rhumba.

Rin says

New Renter says

So what IS it licenced pharmacists do that is not possible to automate even with today's tech? I don't buy the gatekeeper argument, that's simply rhetoric for protectionism

Well, that's what it is ... protectionism. A drug store chain, with a licensed pharmacist on board, can't be sued or criminally charged for dispensing drugs w/o DEA (or whatever alphabet soup agency) clearance. This is why there's a permanent wage gap between a pharm assistant and a pharmacist. The latter's got the law on its side.

I'm not sure I buy that argument either given prescription drugs can be purchased internationally via mail order. There is also no reason, at least none that I can think of why a robot can't be given them appropriate clearance or certification.

New Renter says

I'm not sure I buy that argument either given prescription drugs can be purchased internationally via mail order. There is also no reason, at least none that I can think of why a robot can't be given them appropriate clearance or certification.

Yeah, there's no technical reason why a robot can't replace stateside pharmacists, however, isn't it a safe bet just to keep one, sticking around, just for the occasional DEA/FDA/FBI audit? I mean given the fact that at least 50% of pharmacists would have lost their jobs by then, paying someone $40-45K, just to be the public face of Big Pharma isn't hurting anyone.

USA unions are responsible for shipping jobs overseas by demanding unsustainable wages and benefits even in current global competitive job market. Unions are allowing a lot of their members get unemployed rather than cut wages and benefits across the board which will preserve everyone's jobs.

EInvestor says

USA unions are responsible for shipping jobs overseas by demanding unsustainable
wages and benefits even in current global competitive job market. Unions are
allowing a lot of their members get unemployed rather than cut wages and
benefits across the board which will preserve everyone's jobs

I didn't realize IT professionals, Accounting and other back office workers all belonged to unions?

EInvestor says

Unions are allowing a lot of their members get unemployed rather than cut wages and benefits across the board which will preserve everyone's jobs.

What unions ?

Rin says

Yeah, there's no technical reason why a robot can't replace stateside pharmacists, however, isn't it a safe bet just to keep one, sticking around, just for the occasional DEA/FDA/FBI audit? I mean given the fact that at least 50% of pharmacists would have lost their jobs by then, paying someone $40-45K, just to be the public face of Big Pharma isn't hurting anyone.

My point is even the DEA/FBI/FDA shouldn't have a problem replacing pharmacists with robots, at least not on a practical basis. An automated pharmacy could be made far more secure than a manned one. Sure keep the token pharmacist aroun d for a few years but put him/her in charge of several automated dispensaries. That would bring costs down considerably once the automated dispensaries are paid for.

New Renter says

My point is even the DEA/FBI/FDA shouldn't have a problem replacing pharmacists with robots, at least not on a practical basis. An automated pharmacy could be made far more secure than a manned one. Sure keep the token pharmacist aroun d for a few years but put him/her in charge of several automated dispensaries. That would bring costs down considerably once the automated dispensaries are paid for.

I agree, in terms of dispensaries.

On the other hand, since pharmacies are now giving people shingles and flu shots, wouldn't that 'live' person be the person to give these shots, since for the time being, people are edgy about having a swivel machine prodding their arms?

Rin says

New Renter says

My point is even the DEA/FBI/FDA shouldn't have a problem replacing pharmacists with robots, at least not on a practical basis. An automated pharmacy could be made far more secure than a manned one. Sure keep the token pharmacist aroun d for a few years but put him/her in charge of several automated dispensaries. That would bring costs down considerably once the automated dispensaries are paid for.

I agree, in terms of dispensaries.

On the other hand, since pharmacies are now giving people shingles and flu shots, wouldn't that 'live' person be the person to give these shots, since for the time being, people are edgy about having a swivel machine prodding their arms?

A mobile clinic should be able to service that need just fine.

In fact I'm sure AF will be happy to donate his time to the community - provided he gets to do so in his own unique way:

And for those times when only getting up close and personal will do:

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