patrick.net

fil says

I've been expecting one this year. Any thoughts?

No. Next!

gbenson says

AverageBear says

For those that pulled their $$ out of the market, answer me this. How are you going to deal w/ inflation as it erodes your wealth

Couple of points:

1. Real inflation is pretty low at the moment and we might even be headed for mild deflation: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-doesnt-fear-deflation-but-should-2013-06-21.

2. If I pull out now, and the indices drop by 10-15% during the course of the summer and then I get back in, I just saved myself 10-15%. I can tolerate a lot of inflationary losses for those kind of savings.

(For reference I didn't pull out back in '03 and lost 40% of my 401k) How did Bush put it? " Fool me once, shame, shame on you..... It fooled me, you can't get fooled again".

You bring up some good points... True, inflation is low, for now. But your $$ still isn't doing anything.. As for timing, it's EXTREMELY hard to do. I was positively certain that the market would 'correct' at the beginning of the year. I had 1/3rd of my 401K in cash, ready to buy some stocks on a downswing I was certain was going to happen. By around the end of Feb, I said "F this"... If I was still out of the market, I would have lost out on 1-2 rounds of dividend payments, and some decent capital appreciation... If you think you can time a correction, and the possible upswing, good luck....If you are a trader, or short-term holder of equities, then my advice and words wouldn't apply to you. I'm mostly and buy/hold guy for over 70% of my holdings...

Me? I'll be cost-averaging on the way down on stocks on my watch list, that I plan on holding on for a few decades.

AverageBear says

Are there any NeoNazi Vegans?

Hitler was a vegetarian.

AverageBear says

If you think you can time a correction

If I could time the market, I'd be retired by now.

dublin hillz says

I think that it is more than just a remote possibility that DOW will hit 13K before it hits 17K. In fact, I would not be shocked at all if it hits 13K before mid october.

I'm thinking 14K before going up in the fall, but like I already write, if I was that good at this stuff, I'd be retired by now.

Dow is in for a multi-year up trend. The correction will be short lived.

My predictions : Dow keeps moving up for few years along with dollar.
US economy performs much better than all other economies for those years.

Gold and emerging markets keep going down. Emerging markets pickup after few years while gold story is over.

Note : Not an investment advice just an opinion.

chanakya4773 says

Dow is in for a multi-year up trend. The correction will be short lived.

My predictions : Dow keeps moving up for few years along with dollar.

US economy performs much better than all other economies for those years.

Gold and emerging markets keep going down. Emerging markets pickup after few years while gold story is over.

Note : Not an investment advice just an opinion.

Any prediction for national debt, debt / gdp ratio and consumer debt in the coming years?

mell says

chanakya4773 says

Dow is in for a multi-year up trend. The correction will be short lived.

My predictions : Dow keeps moving up for few years along with dollar.

US economy performs much better than all other economies for those years.

Gold and emerging markets keep going down. Emerging markets pickup after few years while gold story is over.

Note : Not an investment advice just an opinion.

Any prediction for national debt, debt / gdp ratio and consumer debt in the coming years?

Debt keeps going up. GDP and Debt can only go up.. The important ratio is debt/GDP which will regress to mean.

The secular bear market will continue.

Look at the Vanguard S&P 500's performance over the last 15 years:

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VFINX&region=USA&culture=en-us

The fund's total annual return has average only about 4% for the last 15 years !

chanakya4773 says

My predictions : Dow keeps moving up for few years along with dollar.

US economy performs much better than all other economies for those years.

Gold and emerging markets keep going down. Emerging markets pickup after few years while gold story is over.

I think I've heard this decoupling story before.

the market is bleeding off "greed"
this is a natural process
sit tight + eat your yams

Hmm, worforce participation at 40 year lows, food stamp usage at lifetime highs, fed pumping liquidity unlike naything the world has ever seen before, most jobs created are without benefits and lower wages, reulting in stagnant wages for decades-yet dow is still at lifetime highs. Sure this is just a correction -we are still in the booming 90s!!

Now, the market is like a sick man pumped with all sorts of drugs-so one never knows when it will give out-but at some stage it will-that could be a few years or months. i have made a very, very decent profit the last few years and so am out and will stay out for a few years, till it makes sense again.

treatmentreport says

FortWayne says

Economy tomorrow will be same as today.

So are you are saying that the real economy does not depend on interest rates?

Feel free to look at the WS, stocks are back up. It was just a naturally occurring bear trap.

treatmentreport says

FortWayne says

Economy tomorrow will be same as today.

So are you are saying that the real economy does not depend on interest rates?

The interest rate increase is a risk only when there is a bubble fueled by the low rates. I don't see that in stock market.
Most of the companies have hoards of cash and very few are running on low interest credit.

At some point it has to go down-I just don't think these prices are justified given our current fundamentals. I just don't know when. While I have gotten out, I am not going to bet against a multi year prevailing trend. Just sit it out and be happy! If it goes down by a lot , then get in again or just stop watching financials for a while.

lostand confused says

At some point it has to go down-I just don't think these prices are justified given our current fundamentals. I just don't know when. While I have gotten out, I am not going to bet against a multi year prevailing trend. Just sit it out and be happy! If it goes down by a lot , then get in again or just stop watching financials for a while.

Looks like you don't know lot of stuff just like everybody else. have you ever given a though on not timing the market and just buying high quality companies at attractive prices.

Technical jargon is easy to use. Ultimately what works for one will not work for another-different personalities, personal risk tolerance and a whole host of factors.

What I am seeing is that from 2009 low, the Dow has gone up close to what-almost 150%??? I don't see the underlying support for this. Now I have been expecting it to go down for a year or two-but held on-dumped a chunk last year and the rest this year.

With all the intervention going on around the world, things can be distorted for a while-but not ever. I have had enough, made quite a chunk of change and am not dependent on the stock market for my expenses-so am going to sit out and enjoy. You are supposed to be making money to make your life easier-rather than make you more stressed!

lostand confused says

What I am seeing is that from 2009 low, the Dow has gone up close to what-almost 150%??? I don't see the underlying support for this.

why are looking from 2009 to now ? why are you not looking at how much the stock market has gone up since 2000 ?

treatmentreport says

It's not that the rates are still low; it's that they are a lot higher than they were two months ago. It's the derivative that matters.

There are many people nursing huge losses on muni funds, emerging market bonds, corporate bonds, etc. Don't tell me that it's does not affect "consumer confidence". The only market that is still up is US equities. Everything else is in the red of the year.

The derivative only matters if there is credit bubble. US equities don't have any credit bubble.
everything is down except US equities.The only one time i agree with cramer : there is always a bull market somewhere.

BTW, if it was that easy to predict a correction just based on interest rate hike, then every economist would be a market timing guru. We all know we cannot time the market.

chanakya4773 says

US equities don't have any credit bubble.

You clearly don't understand what credit bubble means.

treatmentreport says

chanakya4773 says

US equities don't have any credit bubble.

You clearly don't understand what credit bubble means.

maybe i am ignorant, can you explain me the credit bubble in US stocks or US economy in general which is sensitive to interest rate hikes ?

chanakya4773 says

maybe i am ignorant, can you explain me the credit bubble in US stocks or US economy in general which is sensitive to interest rate hikes ?

Here is my definition of a credit bubble: A company that was fighting for its existence 15 years ago, sells 17B worth of long term bonds at records low spread over treasuries, so that it can buy back shares and pay dividends.

treatmentreport says

Here is my definition of a credit bubble: A company that was fighting for its existence 15 years ago, sells 17B worth of long term bonds at records low spread over treasuries, so that it can buy back shares and pay dividends.

That's a poor definition then. A company's health 15 years ago likely doesn't have much correlation with its ability to pay bills today. 15 years is a long time.

A better definition would a company that is fighting for its existence today getting 17B worth of long term bonds at low spreads.

Interesting the 1Q GDP has been revised lower to 1.8%. I wouldn't be surprised if the Dow comes down to 8,000 or even 7,000 before it resumes its climb and as usual the timing , QE etc are all big factors. But just my opinion.

tatupu70 says

15 years is a long time.

Exactly my point. 15 years is a long time and some of their bonds are for longer duration.