patrick.net

robertoaribas says

so, last year, Shiller said "don't buy Phoenix..."

good freaking advice, phoenix went up 25% since he made those comments!!!!!!!

And, to dispute you bubble idiots, the median price just crossed $180K. Do your own math on the monthly expenses buying a $180K house with say even 5% FHA loan, $$2000 taxes, $700 insurance, and see how it compares to an $1100 - $1300 current rent. The owner pays less, still today.

That just begs the question - why are rents in Phoenix so high?

robertoaribas says

so, last year, Shiller said "don't buy Phoenix..."

good freaking advice, phoenix went up 25% since he made those comments!!!!!!!

And, to dispute you bubble idiots, the median price just crossed $180K. Do your own math on the monthly expenses buying a $180K house with say even 5% FHA loan, $$2000 taxes, $700 insurance, and see how it compares to an $1100 - $1300 current rent. The owner pays less, still today.

No - I thought what he said was that he believes in momentum - and we could be off to the races - for a year or so. He is ambivalent about whether the gains would stick, or whether they would start coming down after interest rate rise and investors moving out. He expressed concern that the speculative nature of the markets could leave people who bought into the bubble high and dry later.

robertoaribas says

so, last year, Shiller said "don't buy Phoenix..."

good freaking advice, phoenix went up 25% since he made those comments!!!!!!!

And, to dispute you bubble idiots, the median price just crossed $180K. Do your own math on the monthly expenses buying a $180K house with say even 5% FHA loan, $$2000 taxes, $700 insurance, and see how it compares to an $1100 - $1300 current rent. The owner pays less, still today.

I am also of the view that Phoenix market overshot on the downside, and probably there were great deals to be made.

However, I am not so sure if the same applies to the SF Bay area.

It can hardly be disputed that a 2nd (Fed, low interest supported) bubble has formed, the question is whether there will be a significant crash/correction or slow drift. The REIT short ETFs (significantly off their all time lows and rising) have completely divorced from the financial short ETFs (near all time lows). The recent weakening of the dollar may support the markets for a bit, but continued weakness against a currency (with its own set of big problems) such as the Euro is not a sign of confidence.

California has different concerns. Low inventory coupled with foreign cash buyers desperate to acquire property and take advantage of immigration loopholes will keep/drive prices higher irrespective of small interest rate fluctuations.

robertoaribas says

New Renter says

That just begs the question - why are rents in Phoenix so high?

are you on crack? $1100 or $1300 to rent a 3 or 4 bedroom house with say 1700 to 2000 square feet, a 2 car garage and a yard? maybe even a pool?

the coastal californians would cut off their left nut to get that deal!

Yessir!.

I know this is just my experience so it is anecdotal, but we have been looking since January for a retirement home in a lower cost housing, remote area in California.

January to March was still a buyers market. Then from April through about two weeks ago it was the sellers market. It was going crazy, something would barely list and be sold the same day, sometimes higher than asking. Due to a personal issue, we had to put a hold on shopping in May but still watching the market. The last two weeks all of a sudden we are seeing homes staying on the market, not selling, and a lot more price reductions. Which is a better market for us. Some of the listings are boldly stating 'good for investors' but still sitting....so we shall see, but just from our experience, there is definitely a change in the market where we are looking.....

New Renter says

That just begs the question - why are rents in Phoenix so high?

And why aren't all savingless retiring Californian baby boomers selling their houses and moving into such cheap locations while they still can.

The bubble won't go very far this time as the gov will start removing all the crutches that supported the housing rebound.

Feds 'tapering' talk was just the start.

Quigley says

California has different concerns. Low inventory coupled with foreign cash buyers desperate to acquire property and take advantage of immigration loopholes will keep/drive prices higher irrespective of small interest rate fluctuations.

Famous last words -"This time it is different. This area is different. This is a fortress area (yup Cupertino/Saratoga might be fortresses, but bay are is much bigger than those 2 areas)."

robertoaribas says

New Renter says

That just begs the question - why are rents in Phoenix so high?

are you on crack? $1100 or $1300 to rent a 3 or 4 bedroom house with say 1700 to 2000 square feet, a 2 car garage and a yard? maybe even a pool?

the coastal californians would cut off their left nut to get that deal!

If that were the case what's stopping them? Why aren't you flooded with coastal CA refugees piling their severed left nuts on your doorstep for the sheer privilege of living in Phoenix?

mbSFBay says

I am also of the view that Phoenix market overshot on the downside, and probably there were great deals to be made.

However, I am not so sure if the same applies to the SF Bay area.

You are correct on the first point.. however SF hasnt crossed, gone back to normal prices... pre-1998 plus inflation.. it was cut short...

Quigley says

California has different concerns. Low inventory coupled with foreign cash buyers desperate to acquire property and take advantage of immigration loopholes will keep/drive prices higher irrespective of small interest rate fluctuations.

How would that be different say from the 80s not to mention a booming economy and yet even with influx of foreign buyers (Japanese, Iranians, Saudi, etc etc), Hollywood, Tech nology... didnt prevent prices from correcting from 1989 to mid 90s and then again more recently. We also had tight inventory, which was also false as its false today with all the new construction activity we had.

The only difference between the 90s correction and today, is todays correction was not allowed to occur due to Govt intervention. CA govt hinges on maintaining higher taxes due to higher prices. Its not in the state Govt to see further price corrections.

That is the only difference today..

New Renter says

If that were the case what's stopping them? Why aren't you flooded with coastal CA refugees piling their severed left nuts on your doorstep for the sheer privilege of living in Phoenix?

Yes, its true, California jobs have migrated to Arizona due to lower costs.

So how much has Intel and other Chip companies invested in AZ.... BILLIONS !

We (the CA workers) have to ask for less to keep jobs in CA. Competition is a bitch!

I spoke to many neighbors if they would sell in my attempt to cut out relatards. They would never leave where they have been from years . They always tell that they wanna die here. So don't bank on baby boomers moving to cheaper places. Even if they move to senior homes they tell their kids to make homes wheel chair friendly and don't sell it until they are alive. That's just the fact.

cloud15 says

They always tell that they wanna die here.

Why have so many native Californians left the state ?

why are there so few of us left ? every wonder about that ?

What state did you migrate from ?

Another video link - specifically about California.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/08/04/is-california-in-another-real-estate-bubble.aspx