patrick.net

I've been wanting to buy UL, PG and KO.

I'm not getting in quickly, I want the Sept FOMC meeting to get over and see what the market reaction is after that.

Way to soon. Should have waited to DOW around 9500

Well I'm only about half in, holding off in case it does drop to that.

Serious question. Why not drive 10 hours, plop $10k on black (or red) and get the same results in a fraction of the time?

bmwman91 says

Serious question. Why not drive 10 hours, plop $10k on black (or red) and get the same results in a fraction of the time?

10 hours? I could do that at a tribal casino much closer by. Or Reno. However I have never gotten any kick at all out of that. YMMV.

I wasn't sitting in cash, but I did buy more of a long-term investment at a lower price today to lower my average cost.

waiting to buy KO... pointless, its looking more and more attractive due to low bonds and if the stocks recover i dont exactly seeing it go down unless stocks rise on earnings which i don't think is likely, if you want KO just buy it

i successfully got in at the last two dips and got out the last two peaks for a 20% gain in my portfolio, maybe its luck, maybe its intuition, but i am making 100% correct calls lately...

now im 20% in EUO and EUO 17 calls the rest is in us dollar cash money, waiting for the euro crisis to blow over, i think we break though support and go lower from here prob another 5% down and then another rally

im betting heavily on opportunities to buy coming up and that the euro crisis deepens, new IPOs are popping like 2000, i think US stocks are now outperforming the eurozone however the flight to safety in the wake of impending eurobank and greece collapse is sending money abroad, especially to the dollar, the dollar is going to continue to strengthen which will hurt our exports, short export stocks, buy domestic companies retailers opportunity coming up soon, buy solid non cyclicals like KO, buy domestic healthcare companies because all of the super-congress has lobbying ties with the healthcare industry, thats the gameplan

Buying in the dip? I've been buying all along. Also- its not usually effective to just buy a smattering of highly volatile stocks. I can't count how many I know who went after "sexy" companies only and lost 50-60% of their values very quickly.

As mentioned numerous times- If you want to make some money, invest broadly and in many cases the companies that have steady income are somewhat boring.

SF ace says

Been thinking hard about JKS and will drop the hammer there. Value play or value trap?

Value Trap probably: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/09/07/jinkosolar-is-jinxed.aspx

SF ace says

I am also 90% sure, the economy will grow in the next 6 quarters making this entry point a smart one.

I think so too, I'm hoping there'll be a good dip before the roar.

Vicente says

AAPL

Monday, February 14, 2011
$7.8B in parts will make Apple largest customer of rival Samsung

The partnership between Apple and Samsung is expected to grow in 2011, as a new report claims Apple will become the company's largest customer with $7.8 billion in component purchases -- even as Samsung attempts to compete with Apple's iPhone and iPad with new products unveiled this week.

According to the Korea Economic Daily, Apple is expected to buy about $7.8 billion worth of components from Samsung this year. The parts will reportedly be for Apple's mobile products, including the iPhone and iPad, and include liquid crystal displays, mobile application processors and NAND flash memory chips.

The proposed contract, according to industry sources cited in the story, would make Apple the single largest customer of Samsung.

I don't sell any of my things, just buy different funds or stocks (actually just Apple) at different times.
My friend yells at me because I won't sell a fund to buy something else, e.g. gold several years ago. Oh well.
If I had more spare cash, I would buy both stocks and high yield bond funds.
But, as a general rule, if interest rates are still practically nil large profitable company stocks aren't a bad idea regardless of the Europeans and the USA being in a rut.
Rich people abound in the poor countries even, I lived in Mexico and I know. So, BMW and Apple, etc. will continue to make dough. Even poor people buy medicine and consume, Novartis, Exxon won't stop making money soon either.
My experience through a true economic crisis in Mexico gave me another perspective. What is happening now is going to kill you if you stay in cash too long. Use the Swiss Franc as a benchmark and see. Or you could use gold.
I like capital gains but also dividends and interest. It's all good.

Vicente says

However I have never gotten any kick at all out of that.

I prefer not to get kicks out of Wall Street as well. Investments are for making money, not generating excitement. Boring, predictable, and profitable appeals to me.

SF ace says

I think this is a great time to purchase equity as bonds are just hellish low and I dump all bonds. I am also 90% sure, the economy will grow in the next 6 quarters making this entry point a smart one.

I agree with the part about bonds. They are in a bad position today. I'm not so sure about stocks. All the news coming out about jobs and consumer demand has been abysmal. Every day NPR plays the death march on Marketplace. If you are going long stocks, you may have to go very long.

Vicente, are you certain you're buying the dip on Apple? It seems to be more of a high from Google's stock charts.

Looking at Google stock charts again, it appears that Apple's stock is priced at 60 times its year 2000 value when you take into account the two 2:1 stock splits. I don't see what justifies such an enormous 10-year increase. I'd be wary of that stock.

Dan8267 says

Looking at Google stock charts again, it appears that Apple's stock is priced at 60 times its year 2000 value when you take into account the two 2:1 stock splits. I don't see what justifies such an enormous 10-year increase. I'd be wary of that stock.

We had a whole thread about AAPL, you want to start that up again?

In year 2000, Apple was not selling iPhones or iPads. It's desktop and laptop entries were fairly minor market share at the time. The sentiment at the time seemed to be except for this iPod thing which would surely be overwhelmed by cheap clones, they were pretty moribund and most people wondered when it would fade into a forgotten niche. Profits for all of 2000 under a billion.

I recall as recently as 6 years ago it was rare for me to see an Apple laptop in meetings. In an entirely unscientific personal survey, Apple products are coming to dominate in meetings and coffee shops. Profits for a single quarter over 7 billion. If you don't see what justifies the stock running up, then you haven't been paying attention for the last 11 years. Are they "done"? If you think so, then short them, I can certainly see something plausible in thinking they've hit a Google-plateau but not a lack of understanding of how they got to this altitude.

Vincent,

That Orb Palace that's planned for the new HQ is not about shareholder value.

Reminds me of the municipality I live in, which during the dot.com proclaimed itself The Capital of Silicon Valley and drew up its plans for a Palace of a HQ that's worthy of Capital of Silicon Valley.

Just like the planned Cupertino Palace is not about shareholder value, The Capital of Silicon Valley's Palace is HQ is not about providing residents' services, nor about growing the city's economy.

Now we're choosing between laying off cops, closing libraries, etc.

Putting resources and energies into such edifices tell about the organization. Not lean and hungry anymore. Spending the spoils on itself.

I'm not convinced that Apple's going to dominate the hand-held market. I'm a Android man myself, and I see Android as having the same advantage over IPhones/IPods that the PC had over MACs, it's an open system and the market loves open systems.

I also think that Google is much better positioned to dominate web services delivered to hand-helds. From searches, to GPS, to email, to documents, Google has been taking a decisive lead.

Dan8267 says

I'm not convinced that Apple's going to dominate the hand-held market. I'm a Android man myself, and I see Android as having the same advantage over IPhones/IPods that the PC had over MACs, it's an open system and the market loves open systems.

I also think that Google is much better positioned to dominate web services delivered to hand-helds. From searches, to GPS, to email, to documents, Google has been taking a decisive lead.

I've been working with open source software for decades. I have mucked around in the source code to a great many things I rely on. Where do I download the source code for GMail?

See the thing is, the word "open" means nothing to Google except where they think it might buy them an edge. Where they don't have to do it, or where they feel threatened, they are not "open" in any sense. If they came to market dominance, they would lock everything up tight too. If they have a bit of software they've decided to abandon do they by default release it for the public? No.

Apple at least doesn't pretend about this point.

I think you need to look a bit beyond the smartphone, which is where Android is stuck.

" Been thinking hard about JKS and will drop the hammer there. Value play or value trap? "

stay away form cyclical plays right now, if there is a real recession you will be crushed, also stay out of china small caps, never ever ever ever ever buy a china small cap

"90% sure, the economy will grow in the next 6 quarters "

youd be a fool to think that the real odds of the economy growing in 6 quarters are about 99.9% doesn't matter though margins are what matters

" AAPL "

watch out for margins, appl margins are enormous if the company grows and its margins fall youll loose alot of money, but then again aapl doesn't look so bad near term

"I don't see what justifies such an enormous 10-year increase."

profits silly, id actually call aapl fairly valued right now, but i want undervalued not fair

"Google is much better positioned to dominate web"

goog is so scattered they've lost their focus there demoralized by a string of setbacks and stupid moves, they really lack good leadership, i actually think google is going to spin off and start selling parts of itself over the next few years, its just too large to effectively manage, actually though the stock will probably rise when they start selling off their divisions so it might not be such a bad idea to pick some up

Dan8267 says

I also think that Google is much better positioned to dominate web services delivered to hand-helds. From searches, to GPS, to email, to documents, Google has been taking a decisive lead.

Gmail is good, but Google Docs is terrible for doing any sort of real work and is no replacement for Word. They don't really do that much on GPS besides Maps, and I'm not sure how much they actually make from Maps. I don't see these products making it that much money compared to what it could do. As someone said, a lot of this stuff is unfocused and not necessarily very innovative or with high potential for profit.

I'm not sure that Android is "in the lead" despite its market share -- the marquee product is still the iPhone. Google also doesn't support manufacturers that are on Android very well, and although they claim the Motorola purchase will help them do so, those are just words, and we haven't seen any actions yet. The entire risk of Android development is on the manufacturer, and Google reaps some of the ad sales from this -- it's really just another low-risk platform for ads.

The only thing they really dominate is search, and they do that quite well and derive a lot of cash from it (and engage in lots of anticompetitive behavior with it). A lot of the rest of the company is subsidized by that, and is driven by that. As an example, there are some products that Google is trying to hawk right now that are clearly designed to maximize their search revenue and their analytics revenue, because they aren't possibly making very much money from the product itself.

Anecdotally, Google is pressing on its search customers for more revenue right now. Ask your friends.