patrick.net

Have you been reading Irvine Housing Blog? The author profiles a lot of properties.

It seems like it would be hard for those houses to drop that much while interest rates are still so low. Interest rates are providing a lot of housing stimulus right now.

They are surely worth only that much for a simple reason...the incomes are the same or less than what they were at the earlier price point. However, prices are usually very sticky...it will be years before the prices fall to that level or if inflation will catch up. So expect to be waiting a VERY long time although eventually it will happen.

This is why most experts are predicting a FLAT market for the next 10-15 years.

I have been watching the blog since we moved here several months ago. The interest rates are the same for the rest of the country and many markets across the country have dipped below original selling prices. Why are prices, "Sticky" in Irvine, yet not sticky in Chicago, Phoenix etc?

So do you think if interest goes up to 6-7 (which I paid on my first home in 1992), the Irvine housing stock would drop down in price significantly?
I know there are no crystal balls, but I have always had a handle on the real estate markets where we lived. Husband says it will come down to supply and demand. I knew when our Tucson home soared to 350 from 150 it was time to sell no matter what. And my gut tells me that buying in Irvine right now would be a big mistake.

Simple Life says

Why are prices, "Sticky" in Irvine, yet not sticky in Chicago, Phoenix etc?

Housing prices are stickier in California because of Prop 13. There may be other factors too.

The housing market is relatively illiquid. You need more transactions for prices to be less sticky, and certain things lower the number of transactions.

Really intelligent thoughts. Thank you. As our children are grown, the schools don't matter as much, but we do enjoy living with the demographics of a University town.

The prop 13 is an interesting pickle.

I guess we wouldn't mind paying a premium on a home to live here, however wasn't it the same great school system in place when a 2 bdrm 2 bath home was $250000?

Simple Life says

however wasn't it the same great school system in place when a 2 bdrm 2 bath home was $250000?

yes.

SFace says

I know that statement is untrue. So I checked the API of a high School (HS is a good indicator of a school disriect due to feeder schools and accumulation effect). Irvine HS

you're so full of shit it's not even funny.

scores going up only means asians moving in.

You will find in CA people use the phrase 'test scores' to avoid making unpleasant non PC speech about race. you have to live in the best school district!!! etc. all the same.

SFace says

So I checked the API of a high School (HS is a good indicator of a school disriect due to feeder schools and accumulation effect).

That isn't usually true in all districts, actually. Some high school districts in NorCal, for example, are an aggregation of several elementary districts and elementary schools. Sequoia is a good example. Some areas have a 900+ elementary, but won't always crack 800 for high school (even though all the white and Asian kids are well above 800).

Also, high school boundary lines don't always match elementary lines exactly, and certainly don't always match town lines, at least around here.