patrick.net

What will be the national debt at the end of 2012?

http://www.usdebtclock.org

"You'd have to study the details to see what's really going on. You can count on the NAR and Realtors to continue lying, and you can count on lazy or paid-off reporters to continue quoting the NAR and Realtors as if they were objective sources."

I like to take a walk at lunch. I pass by a condominium / townhome complex where I can see just from the street view 3 empty units. I assume someone would want to sell them.

I searched on Redfin up to 300K, went through all the listings, did not see ONE for sale. Ok, went up to 400K, 90% houses.

In my opinion, no one has any real numbers on short sales, forclosures, and shadow inventory. If they do, it is a closely guarded secret.

David9 says

In my opinion, no one has any real numbers on short sales, forclosures, and shadow inventory. If they do, it is a closely guarded secret.

I think you're right.

The banks blew everyone's deposits on ridiculously bad mortgage lending. The money is gone. So the banks hide their real numbers and rely on loans from the Fed to paper over the giant hole for now. If they were to foreclose on all their delinquent accounts, sell off their shadow inventory, and honestly publish the value of their collateral at current market prices, they'd have to acknowledge that they are bankrupt, that they defrauded the public, and that the executives should all be in jail.

The government knows this, so they don't encourage the sale of shadow inventory or publication of honest numbers either.

Private debt gets transformed into public debt, debtors are given a year or two of free rent, savers are robbed, and the criminal executives not only stay out of jail, they get giant bonuses instead.

I feel that the with economy we are in for sharp and permanete life style change here in the USA, if anyone actualy reads this post, I'll ask that go to YouTube and search out Americatalatst with Kyle Bass from Nov 7 th 2011 I think it was I don't think I can put a link to you tube from my iPhone or I would just post it, but what he has been saying now for a few years and what he sees ahead for likes of the world economy dove tails with you guessed it I'm
Still signing the praises of Harry Dent not that Kyle even says one word I have no idea if Kyle agrees or disagrees or gives rats ars about Harry, please
http://www.youtube.com/embed/5V3kpKzd-Yw&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Hey I tried, if you go and listen you will hear Kyle state something to the topic of just what some of you posted about re: banks and optic backstops and the Hugh casem between reality and what we have been conditioned to think about there always being a fed or money center well guess what there is not any thing but promises and NO Money the end of fiat currency nations and economies is a real and in fact likey outcome, please those of you with an intrest please look it up in YouTube you will be damm glad you did!

cab says

Can someone please explain what "the Fortress" means?

A city/area where it is the prices can't fall (rich areas). They are immune to market conditions. I guess it is subjective. E.g., Cupertino, CA

cab says

Can someone please explain what "the Fortress" means?

fortress

[fawr-tris]   Origin
for·tress

noun

1. A geographic area that appears to shrink over time.
2. Redefined continually.

I agree completely with Kyle Bass, one of the hedge fund managers who foresaw and profited greatly from the inevitable result of the housing bubble using data and reasoning that in retrospect are totally obvious. Using the same deep understanding, mountains of data and simple math combined with his typically flawless reasoning, Kyle believes as do I that the EU situation will end very poorly. Japan is on the brink, after the EU crash especially, of being unable to pay the interest on its huge national debt or borrow more funds for its demographically aging welfare state.

Like Kyle says, after thirty years of the citizens and governments of developed countries borrowing massive amounts of money from developing countries to hide the negative impact of globalization that exported good-paying manufacturing jobs and shifted the west to nearly fully debt-based consumerist societies, the BILL IS NOW DUE and simply CANNOT be paid for with ADDITIONAL DEBT, something that should be, but apparently isn't, obvious to the most casual observer with some degree of common sense.

China will also suffer greatly when the EU problem and it effect on the US and Japan destroys its export market combined with their own rapidly escalating real estate bubble implosion.

At best, if pols did everything _right_ (cut spending and raise taxes), with most of those correct moves resulting in political suicide, we would have a very long and extremely DEEP worldwide recession. If they do mostly incorrect things as they are doing now by attempting to kick the can down the road by accumulating massive amounts of additional debt, the result will be CATASTROPHIC when the CDS and bond markets finally FORCE the issue.

I'd guess 2012 as the likely end of the can kicking for the EU, with Japan to follow in 2013/14.

My guess in 2012 is that unemployment at 8.6 will go way back up over 9.1 once the seasonal jobs end and we all pay off the xmas bill, economy will go on pause ... there still seems like more daily layoffs than hiring going on so it will continue to push the economy downward. Congress just passed 1T+ budget so inflation will increase thus crunching the consumer. The law that states that tax owed by sellers on sold underwater homes by deducting the full mortgage minus the sold short sale price that starts in 2013 will probably be repealed by congress out of fear from we the people. There will be probably a deeper acceleration of house prices in over priced markets like NY... North Korea new leader vs. there military will fight over leadership and if the Mayans are right then who cares anyway!

My prediction for 2012(and 2013....sorry gotta hedge this one a bit) is drastic real estate price decline for large city California...like 7% yoy +

I base this soley on how aggressively defensive the bulls have become lately. When animals become aggitated and go on the defensive, it usually indicates that they are threatened.

repo4sale says

30=Take 17 lavish vacations, including date nights and Wednesday evening White House parties for his friends, paid for by the taxpayer.

A politician taking lavish vacations on the taxpayer dime?

I just *knew* this would happen sooner or later.

dodgerfanjohn says

I base this soley on how aggressively defensive the bulls have become lately. When animals become aggitated and go on the defensive, it usually indicates that they are threatened.

Interesting, last time I checked this was a bears forum...:) and the gloom and doom outweighs the positive posts by a mile. Reminds me when the dow was at 6000. The world was coming to an end. Now we are at 12k...lol.

If you are going to be a contrarian, you should open your eyes and realize that the overall sentiment is not bullish but bearish as hell. Heck, this whole site is dedicated to that. What else do I have to say?

:)

I seriously predict if not this year, then in the next few coming years. There will be a huge mall or super store fire where most of the patrons will die, trapped and have no way out.

For as long as I can remember, and even taught in School, even sesame street, to look for the Exits in case of a fire.

Lately I've been noticing in stores like Target and Wal-Mart, those Exit signs have all been replaced by surveillance bubble cameras.
Store isles are laid out in a Labyrinth pattern instead of a navigable grid. More often, I have to wander aimlessly to find the exit. Yesterday at the Mall, both in the Mall its self or in JC Penny's or Macy's there is no determinable exit or direction signs to be seen any where. The actual exits are behind displays, from the center of the store, if you look in all directions there was not one single direction indicator. So we spent a lot of time walking in one direction, only to find we were walking in the opposite direction of where we were trying to go.

I remember hearing catastrophic stories of fires like the one I expect to be impending in places like India, or Peru, always some third world country, and I would think why don't they have a system like we do. Then I would thank people like Ralph Nader for sparing us the travesty.

Here I'll go one further. Keeping true to our dumbed down society. I not only expect it to happen once, but then I expect a serial event of several fires in as many days or weeks.
Just like the news happens, these days.

It's always some unprecedented event, that seems so flukey and unlikely to ever have happened, then that event is always followed by a few more events.

When did Fire Marshal Bill die?

Who is worse- lying mortgage broker or lying realtor?
I hate the brokers more.

These are all guesses so I'll throw mine in there. I'm playing devil's advocate.

I'm going to predict that this upcoming year there will probably be a slow but steady recovery. Probably nothing to crow about, but a recovery just the same. Its seems like this is sort of happening already anyway.

As far as the Bay Area, well I don't really think people have changed that much. If there is even an inkling of a chance that people can squeeze into a house by spending 120% of their income to do so- by golly they'll do it. All it would take would be some sort of clever way to introduce some sort of new exotic loan products. As much as I hate to say it the BA is basically fueled by bubbles. One bubble leads into another and housing bubbles are simply par for the course. Thus it wouldn't surprise me at all if in the next 3-4 years yet another bubble inflates itself and people reminisce about the good ole' days back when a starter home in the East Bay was 'only" 500k. This in turn will change the demographic of the Bay Area even further as it becomes increasingly gentrified.

What won't happen is the needed change in our fundamentals:

Right now, everyone is hoping for what they believe to be the two necessary components of a recovery: more easily accessible credit and more consumer spending.

May I translate:

People buying things they don't need with money they don't have will save America.

Now, that's the problem. And no one is even talking about it.

California Equity & Loan says

People buying things they don't need with money they don't have will save America.
Now, that's the problem. And no one is even talking about it.

Exactly! First we need to pay off the excessive debt load and then start over before we start a new bubble,instead most of America is interested in maintaining the bubble without generating the $ to payoff current obligations. :)

Wow. "Private debt gets transformed into public debt"

That translates into our tax $dollars being used to keep the housing bubble inflated.

Never thought of it that way until it was presented that way.

David9 says

Wow. "Private debt gets transformed into public debt"

That translates into our tax $dollars being used to keep the housing bubble inflated.

Never thought of it that way until it was presented that way.

Yes, that's exactly what's going on, BIG time. Literally trillions of dollars.

Banks blew all your deposits on extremely irresponsible private mortgages, but escape most of the responsibility. The banks just force the public to pay for their losses via:

Fannie
Freddie
FHA
Federal Reserve purchases of mortgage-backed bonds with newly printed cash
TARP
Stimulus spending
Increased jumbo loan limits

And probably other government programs I can't think of or that are still hidden.

So responsible savers are punished at least three times:

1. House prices are kept higher than the free market would
2. Near-zero interest rates on savings
3. Higher personal share of the national debt

The 1% gets to privatize profit and socialize risk. The 99% is forced to pay the 1% whether the 1% wins or loses. Maybe even more if the 1% loses.

The right thing to do:

* Eliminate Fannie, Freddie, FHA
* Eliminate the mortgage interest deduction
* Eliminate the Federal Reserve
* Let mortgage bond holders lose. Bond buyers gambled. They should lose when their bet was wrong.
* Let house prices fall. Owners gambled. They should lose when their bet was wrong.
* Put a strict size limit on banks. No one bank should have more than 1% total US market share.

Let house prices fall. Owners gambled. They should lose when their bet was wrong.

or you could say their bet was right since it looks like the bail outs will continue.

The GOP says

I seriously predict if not this year, then in the next few coming years. There will be a huge mall or super store fire where most of the patrons will die, trapped and have no way out.

I kinda doubt it. I'm not sure what they are like where you are but I see a fair amount of exists. Now if they do fire drills or not is something else.

The amount of deaths due to fire in the country has dropped dramatically...even in the face of a rising population. I'd say zoning, building codes and smoke detectors did much of the job.

But what you do say about exists is true. This was pure hell that happened on '03
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Station_nightclub_fire I look for exits at any music venue..nearly had a panic attack in china when they used fireworks inside a building...

Fire deaths per capital generally have gone down in much of the planet..except the former soviet union.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2006-12-10-russia-hospital-fires_x.htm
I've heard of mental hospital fires where the locks on the windows are mounted outside (as to keep them in) but there is no manual electronic release that could assist. To manually unlock windows one by one is not efficient.

bubblesitter says

California Equity & Loan says

People buying things they don't need with money they don't have will save America.
Now, that's the problem. And no one is even talking about it.

Exactly! First we need to pay off the excessive debt load and then start over before we start a new bubble,instead most of America is interested in maintaining the bubble without generating the $ to payoff current obligations. :)

Why? Why do we want to pay off the debt that is currently lent to USA at very low interest rates and with lenders in line (especially everytime stock market crashes or some other crisis happens) and not invest in the future - and then borrow later at a much higher rate when no one is willing to lend because of the poor revenues due to lack of investment?

My father-in-law made a decision to send his son to US for graduate studies in Computer Sciences & take a loan from a bank in India to pay for the same - his son did well in the grad school and got a good tech job after the masters degree. They could have decided that the debt is excessive but the debt used for investment paid off in the long run and they are much better off as a family than if they had not taken that debt and the son had been with a low paying job.

repo4sale says

Obama’s setting a TREND as 1st President to=
1=Refuse to show a valid birth certificate

Not that I am a die hard Obama fan - but oh no yet another birther and conspiracy theorist! By the way, I would really like to see your birth certificate so that I can be really sure you were really born - and when you show it to me I will still refuse to believe that it was not forged.

It has nothing to do with conspiracy theories, the last thing America needs is a Petty douche bag making a political talking point out of it. That's the stuff Dictators that are above the law does. In 2007 we were NOT there YET.

Let mortgage bond holders lose. Bond buyers gambled. They should lose when their bet was wrong.

That will be a problem. The largest bailout, 140 billions went to AIG. This company was selling insurance to mortgage bonds holders. Works similar like PMI (now bankrupt). When bonds loosing cash flow AIG pay loses. It appears that taxpayers pay to bonds investors. This money is not recoverable in short or long perspective.

The GOP says

It has nothing to do with conspiracy theories, the last thing America needs is a Petty douche bag making a political talking point out of it. That's the stuff Dictators that are above the law does. In 2007 we were NOT there YET.

William E Baughb

Dear me.

I predict war. But this time, US defending itself from CHINA.

i predict a booming economy. more self made men real estate invesment types and more APPLE products to keep us exited about the future here in the USA. i predict OBAMA 2012 and a huge employment boom and house buying spree parlty because of the troops returning from the war and other war profits finding they way back home here in the USA. i predict no more OCCUPY and a new respect for banks. if you can not beat them you join them. i saw this play out with the boomers. dont see why it will be any diff with this generation. i preedict china as our ally againts IRAN and i predict better oil sources for the us from both the pipeline and japans whales. i see a real turn around in 2012.

REpro says

It appears that taxpayers pay to bonds investors. This money is not recoverable in short or long perspective.

had a guy explain this to me. it is not real money. if you can just exept that it is numbers swirling arounf and around then you can breath a lot easier. debt is where we get wealth. wiht out it there can be no wealth. what came first the chicken or the egg? get it? and as long as there is debt to fuel industry we will be fine and we wil alwyas have debt thanks to the FED.

whoosh says

xactly! First we need to pay off the excessive debt load and then start over before

those debts can never be repaid . NEVER> it is impossible. live with it.

Cash is more of a measurement of time and labor than anything else. It's confusing to some. To make it a little easier. Imagine your work all day at the end of the day someone writes down credits to take and buy food with. You may work for a big corp affiliated with that Food store. If not your still dealing in credits. As the fractional deals all the credits out. Key word is CREDITS. See they DO NOT think in terms of what it cost them. Paper is very cheap. They think in terms of what it costs. YOU. Another words how much of someones labor can I capture and for how long.

Your labors are not for real material substantial goods. Thats where some get really confused. They are for credits. Thats where you really get burned. The credits can be adjusted either on your side (less pay, debt) or inflation bullshit (which is mysteriously absent) or inflated goods 35 bucks to make a flat screen tv which is nothing more than a circut board that sells for 700 credits. Keeping you in debt and WORKING. If it were your asset you were trading you might try to understand the value of what you are buying. However in the fractional world you have no other choice but to stay in debt as you cannot bargain for what you are buying. So you buy rip off goods giving away all your credits and you wind up working fractionally for years and years and years producing way way way more than what you got ripped off for. Liter of coke 3c to make figure the percent mark up in credits. Everything you buy is like that. 3 bd house 3 months to build. 30 years to pay for. SEE.

Now all the labor that produces the goods you buy work on the same basis. for asswipe. They buy the same rip-off goods. Takes them 30 years also of labor producing goods for you. All it cost the swindlers was some paper and no work. It's nice and convienient that the federal reserve notes are the only legal tender or legal for trade. Credit or debt is always measured in time to pay back. Usury takes you beyond way beyond the time you would take to pay it back. Then paying for it tit for tat.

Deal is they can ask for the credits they want to get goods. However YOU have only two choices get it or don't get it. That includes food which is really fucked. Nevermind how many credits either get it debt slave or go without. Thats how they look at it and will never say it. No one in this entire country has the balls to utter the word usury, except me.

What you need to understand is this: They can give a fuck about paper. That they have truckloads of. They need your labor. If they had truckloads of paper without the labor THEY WOULD BE FUCKED.

Another key? Let me show you how this goes. You produce for yourself. Now your stuck on zero. I am not smart enough will be the first thought that comes to you. Your next thought? I must run and be with ALL of the other labor that produces for one another. The federal toilet paper factory. Who's owners, with unlimited paper (ONLY LEGAL MEANS OF TRADE) which captures, unlimited labor, don't do much of anything but live well. Truly is wonderful. Only one problem. When you run to be one of the laborer's that produces for one another. Your mired in debt. For most of you life. Just like everyone else. It's nice to be together of course. Some think of it as benevolence. More pratically it is bonded labor and debt slavery. Its massive as some see it. Deal is it really isn't. The world is much larger and theyre are many more people that DON'T get involved in the debt swindel than do. They call them or see them as poor. However how can you be any poorer than being in debt all of your life. Thats real fucking poverty less than zero, debt slave and a debt slave does not own anything they just owe that IS the foundation of debt slavery. There are shitloads of people that never even go near the swindlers don't deal in asswipe and live way better than you think.

I sound like a hard ass I know. Deal is I like all of you. Well most of you anyway. The ones that reason, even better. I just don't like seeing what i consider my fellow humans in a life of servitude to someone else. Spending your entire life practically jumping at someone elses whistle. One day i hope or many will see themselves as a man and not someone elses lackey. It was really sneaky of them to get so many into all of this. I don't feel very sorry for the ones that did.

I don't Pre-dict anything. I will make something however up just like the rest of the predictors. This thing is falling apart like a cow lost in the woods. I think squatting (a fucked up word like you would have to do if you were a woman back in the 16th century when your man walked by.) Try taking over property. It will become much more commonplace. I even see some growing a fucking brain buying a tent taking the canvas off and throwing some plastic over it IE: a greenhouse is so fucking simple. Year round food for practically nothing. I also think people will be joining the hundereds of thousands that just go get land on the plains. Which does happen. You just don't get to hear about it. Not paying a cable bill, electric, gas, phone just more debt hooks. Really its not panic just living free. Why do it out of panic? Or stay facinated with the swindlers. Your choice. The internet is filled with and can be filled with all kinds of really great ways to live your life without the bastards.

Again I'll ask those of you to please go listen yo this americacatlyst with Kyle Bass circa nov 7 2011 on you tube, big eye opener of course you'll be looking up some defennictions he uses like optic backstop etc.. But you all soon realize this is real, no fluff and or bull shit just what's coming down the pike in the next 3-5 years starting with Japan then euro nations then USA

JodyChunder says

i predict a booming economy. more self made men real estate invesment types and more APPLE products to keep us exited about the future here in the USA. i predict OBAMA 2012 and a huge employment boom and house buying spree parlty because of the troops returning from the war and other war profits finding they way back home here in the USA. i predict no more OCCUPY and a new respect for banks. if you can not beat them you join them. i saw this play out with the boomers. dont see why it will be any diff with this generation. i preedict china as our ally againts IRAN and i predict better oil sources for the us from both the pipeline and japans whales. i see a real turn around in 2012.

REpro says

Let mortgage bond holders lose. Bond buyers gambled. They should lose when their bet was wrong.

That will be a problem. The largest bailout, 140 billions went to AIG. This company was selling insurance to mortgage bonds holders. Works similar like PMI (now bankrupt). When bonds loosing cash flow AIG pay loses. It appears that taxpayers pay to bonds investors.

Problem for whom? Not a problem for me if bondholders or AIG go bankrupt. In fact, it's a huge problem for me if they do not.

ArtimusMaxtor says

Keeping you in debt and WORKING.

Yes, control over labor is the goal. The 1%'s control over the labor of the 99% explains everything. It's all about capturing servants and making them wipe your ass every day so you don't have to wipe it yourself. While letting them think they are free.

See
http://www.youtube.com/watch?source=patrick.net&v=rsL6mKxtOlQ#watch-headline
and
http://www2.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html

Very true Patrick. They won't let on because people would find a way out. One thing you might add to that, is education. Virtually no education of what being in debt is about. The tell in that is all of the people in debt. If it truly were useful they would be showing them ways of making it without debt. Thats just not the case.

They are also always trying to bring in new debtors. Internationally that is oh so important to them. If people really understood what education is about in their terms. The would run like hell. So they have purpose in doing things the way they do.

America is the place to come. We are rich. We have everything. The truth is we are swamped in personal debt. No one with a home with a mortgage owns it (they can throw you out). They make sure your on a payment system from everything like electric to verizon and beyond. Everyone looks good driving down the street with something they don't own. Looks good to an outsider if promoted to them correctly leaving out the very real facts. Which is nothing new.

Merry Christmas (if I believed in that bullshit) To you Patrick and Apocolypse Fuck, Bubblesitter. Many more here of course. You have provided your people with honesty, integrity thanks for this great internet site which I have enjoyed daily. Thank you to reasoned thinkers who really give a damn about their fellow human beings everywhere.

I believe there was a Jesus. However there was a big Jesus bullshit story added to it. To keep people in line. Waiting for the end for everyones ass to catch on fire. Waiting for the duck and cover that no one really does anymore who knows why? lead schools who fucking knows. Scaring the shit out of everyones kids. To many phone calls. Governments, peoples have to be kept in some reasonable order. What happens when they are overcome and let their people become overcome and led into servitude? What happens when they are overcome and told when to fire on someone else. Even their own people. That are desperately trying to get them out of this? Some little jerk off keeps coming into the occupy chat bringing up fema camps. Thing is some of the people that were invaded are afraid others are out there speaking their minds. It has purpose of course. What he needs to think about are the public trials that will be held for the peoples rights that are violated in violation of what is agreed upon by all. It's not going to get worse only better. Just not in the old way I feel. Don't be some old debtor "stick in the mud". Join the fun. Its the one life you have. So have some fun.

edvard2 says

I'm going to predict that this upcoming year there will probably be a slow but steady recovery

RECOVERY .......... This is such a warm, reassuring, positive word.
Websters should define it in this context as : smoke up ones ass.

I can not seem to find a soul who can answer WHAT exactly we are recovering from.

Wasn't it the loss of income caused by the maturity of the computer industry ?
IT IS GONE...Much like the Radio, the TV, and soon to be gone the Automobile ? When will we RECOVER from the loss of those sources of income ?

There is no english word for Schadenfreude, and there seems to be no word for whatever it is that we are expected to RECOVER from.
GUBMINT uses that word RECOVERY, while forcing YOU to pay for big Bank's loss's.
We need to invent a word that means HOPEFUL RECOVERY or PLANNED BELT TIGHTENING or Back up plan when the chute don't open.

whoosh says

and then borrow later at a much higher rate when no one is willing to lend

It seems like you have not been following lending market lately! Even at super low rates lending standards are strictest in recent times. Lots and lots of recent RE transactions are cash only. Go figure!

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

Then things get ugly.

Post of 2011!!!

To the parasites who make a living by deception, and there are many in the USA, this site may seem bearish. But it is not. It simply tries to expose the truth. To the parasites, the truth is just an inconvenient impediment that lies in their way of swindling more people. They mourn the bursting of the bubble and yearn for the return of its evil. This site was among the first to raise the publics' understanding of the housing bubble and its terrible effects, and I predict it will continue to bring out the truth in 2012. Now you con artists will have to look elsewhere to get money for doing nothing... gold... stocks again... more worthless crap. I suggest you scammers try making a living by actually producing something, for a change!

bubblesitter says

whoosh says

and then borrow later at a much higher rate when no one is willing to lend

It seems like you have not been following lending market lately! Even at super low rates lending standards are strictest in recent times. Lots and lots of recent RE transactions are cash only. Go figure!

I am not talking about individual borrowing but debt by US as a country. While it is easy for US to borrow right now at a low rate - that may not always be the case. This seems a little counter intuitive but if you are likely to be jobless for sometime - better to get low rate loans before you get laid off to help you tide over :-).

Also check out:

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/01/28/the-10-countries-with-the-most-debt

BTW the great part of US debt is it is all in its own currency (if really needed the debt can be inflated away) - most countries don't have that luxury.

By the way - with respect to your point about stricter lending standards & folks not able to take advantage of low interest rates (and buy houses) - I think increased interest rates will lead to increased lending by the banks as they will be willing to take more risks & hence increased house prices. Ordinary people will stretch themselves to buy even if it costs them more due to the higher rates - and banks will bend over themselves to lend. This in turn will cause the home owners with good houses who have been waiting in the sidelines will start unloading properties - seeing more good condition non-foreclosure properties on sale the waiting in the sidelines homebuyers will get tempted & jump in - leading to another bubble. These are human tendencies/behaviors that may or may not be in their best interests - but most of us are ordinary weak folks. So in my opinion if Patrick wants lower house prices - he should hope Bernanke will keep the rates low for as long as possible.