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If only the two largest US carriers were the entire smartphone market. Or even the entire US market. Or even the majority of the US market...
Investors are making bets. They're betting that Apple's growth isn't sustainable. It's pretty simple, actually.
it is the majority of the US market...
Verizon 31.3% and AT&T 26.6%... In what Universe is 58% not a majority?
Sprint is desperate to sell IPHONES because they bought so many up front from Apple. They sold 1.8 million last quarter...
Once Apple FINALLY cuts a deal with China Mobile.. The stock will pop 40-50 a share the day of the announcement.. or in the lead up to the imminent announcement.
Those are percentages of post paid (contract) customers. Posy paid is only half of the market.
Quick, what's 58% of half of the market?
Those are percentages of post paid (contract) customers. Posy paid is only half of the market.
Quick, what's 58% of half of the market?
Apple is priced as if it will only experience 2% year over year growth forever... I'd be first to agree $700 a share Apple was risky in the short term.. and deserved a pullback.
But it's current price is definitely blood in the streets fear-driven and overselling.
Those are percentages of post paid (contract) customers. Posy paid is only half of the market.
Quick, what's 58% of half of the market?
Apple is priced as if it will only experience 2% year over year growth forever... I'd be first to agree $700 a share Apple was risky in the short term.. and deserved a pullback.
But it's current price is definitely blood in the streets fear-driven and overselling.
Perhaps. The question is, what happens next? If you believe that Apple's fundamentals and future are sound, and that investors are just being short sighted and will eventually come around, by all means buy.
Just remember that there are plenty of companies doing very well that have had a stagnant stock price for a very long time.
I don't buy individual stocks unless they pay a dividend for just this reason. You're betting on perception.
bmwman91
2013 Jan 27, 8:33pm
Holy shit am I glad that I am too much of a pussy to actually gamble on options. My friend that gave me that "hot tip" is going to get razzed next time we go grab beers!
Apple is not going anywhere. They are a long way off from becoming Microsoft per Kevin's earlier description, which sadly bears quite a bit of truth. Even if they did...well, MSFT is still alive. They (AAPL) make high quality hardware and their corporate culture still attracts top type-A talent, which will probably mean that they continue churning out top quality stuff. Popular sentiment toward them is shifting a little, but they still have legions of die-hard fans and brand-whore minions. Their margins are unreal for high volume consumer gadgetry, so if they ever did need to engage in a pricing battle, they have a LOT of room. I have no idea where their stock price is going, but they will remain highly profitable for quite some time I am sure.
It does seem that their stock price was blown up on expectations of unsustainable growth levels, even with their super conservative P/E. Maybe the price will keep going down, maybe it will go way up, maybe it will level off. It is hard to say since it is dependent on fickle consumer behavior and reactionary retail investors. Either way, I see Apple being consistently profitable for the near- to mid-term future.
Long AAPL @ $455. The P/E is 10 and dividend yield is over 2.3%.
The Cash value is $150 a share for Christ's sake.
What's going to happen, the P/E is going to 8?
Or 5?
Find any company with a cash value 35% of it share price that has a P/E of 10.
Tenpoundbass
2013 Jan 27, 11:43pm
iPhone losing luster in Asia's trend-setting cities
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/1/28/business/20130128080557&sec=business
In Hong Kong, devices running Apple's iOS now account for about 30 percent of the total, down from about 45 percent a year ago. Android accounts for nearly two-thirds.
Here's a really interesting article about what Apple does with its CASH MONEYS...
zzyzzx
2013 Feb 1, 12:31am
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/anlaysis-funds-saw-apples-decline-174717417.html
Analysis: The funds that saw Apple's decline coming
Whether it was a case of simple risk management, concerns that the company's share price had peaked, or a bit of luck, fund managers who drained Apple from their portfolios helped drive down the price of the stock. As a result of their early shift in sentiment, they appear quite prescient now.
Denver-based fund manager Tom Marsico sold his firm's entire stake in the company between November and January - most of it in November before things got really ugly. At about $2 billion of the firm's $31 billion in assets under management, the Apple stake made up between 6 to 8 percent of the domestic portfolios at the time he began selling.
His concern: that the company had saturated the market with its products so much that there was "no one left to sell to."
Marsico, the Denver-based manager, began selling his position in the company when it traded at around $650 per share out of concern that its years of phenomenal growth were over.
"We didn't see another major category that would provide the opportunity that the iPhone has had for the company," he said.
The company's strong lineup of current products didn't entice him to stay invested. "They've talked about the fact that they have the best products they've ever had. But I remember you could say the same thing about Sony 20 years ago," he said.
Some managers trimmed their overweight positions, but were held back from selling more because of the company's massive pile of cash. Daniel Rosenblatt, a portfolio manager of the $639 million Neuberger Berman Large Cap Disciplined Growth fund, began trimming his position in Apple by approximately 10 percent, from 8.1 percent of assets to 7.2 percent of assets, as the company approached its high. The company, which had been among the fund's largest positions since 2004, was "clearly in a deceleration mode", Rosenblatt said.
He was most troubled by surveys that showed that even die-hard Apple fans were more open to using rivals' products. "When a product loses a certain amount of cool, its pricing power falls," he said. Yet he won't short the stock or sell more because the company's large cash position, which makes up about a third of its market value, "could change the dynamics of the stock price overnight" via a big buy-back or acquisition, he said.
bmwman91
2013 Feb 7, 6:03am
So, there's a potential game-changer coming for AAPL stock prices. Greenlight Capital is filing a suit against Apple for not doing enough to pump its share price, and apparently Apple is considering letting shareholders vote themselves into juicy shares of dividend-paying preferred stock. What will happen next is anyone's guess. Basically, they are under fire now to pump the shit out of their stock to appease shareholders, more so then ever. Time to make some popcorn...
anotheraccount
2013 Feb 13, 8:19am
The biggest wildcard is the compression of margins. I just bought an iPad mini and Google Nexus 7. For many people it's becoming harder to justify to pay for a bigger iPad with more memory when you can get pretty much the same thing cheaper.
The stock may be due for a bounce soon, but after that don't be surprise to see the stock reaching close to $200/share within a year's time or so.
I loved what Jobs did, but the stock is broken after what the hedge funds did to it in 2012 above the 460+ island ramp job to $700.
People spend billions on watches because a $10000 watch is a high end piece of jewelry. A $200-300 watch will never fit that category. You can't brag about the techie equivalent of a Timex.
Smart watches could be interesting, but it'll take a really killer app to make them shine.
bmwman91
2013 Mar 3, 7:03am
Honest to god, this is a vastly superior product to what it sounds like Apple is making. Who the FUCK wants to charge their goddamn watch every day?! Surf the web on a 1" screen? Riiiiight. I am not saying that there won't be some amazing technology baked into an incredibly small package by Apple's iWatch, but it seems like a completely impractical gimmick.
MsBennet
2013 Mar 3, 2:35pm
I was thinking about a month ago while driving down the freeway, what is Apple going to come up with next. First was the iPad, then the mini, and I thought what next. A computer watch?
I swear to God. It's true.
At that same time my next thought was the watch could project the display on a flat surface to enlarge it. Now, that will be weird if it comes true. You heard it here first. You are all my witnesses.
zzyzzx
2013 Mar 4, 12:50am
At that same time my next thought was the watch could project the display on a flat surface to enlarge it. Now, that will be weird if it comes true. You heard it here first. You are all my witnesses.
I'm pretty sure I have seen stuff like this on TV, maybe sci-fi, but I am not sure. Would then see people watching their porn on walls in public places then.
evilmonkeyboy
2013 Mar 27, 11:22am
Honest to god, this is a vastly superior product to what it sounds like Apple is making. Who the FUCK wants to charge their goddamn watch every day?! Surf the web on a 1" screen? Riiiiight. I am not saying that there won't be some amazing technology baked into an incredibly small package by Apple's iWatch, but it seems like a completely impractical gimmick.
I have to agree, I can not think of a scenario where I would buy a "smart watch".
zzyzzx
2013 Mar 27, 12:00pm
I have to agree, I can not think of a scenario where I would buy a "smart watch".
If the watch can project an image onto a wall for you to see, then maybe, but then other people would be hanging around to watch your porn.
Bellingham Bill
2013 Mar 27, 12:23pm
I have to agree, I can not think of a scenario where I would buy a "smart watch".
not some clunky-ass block of metal, no.
But back in the 1980s I had this really cool Armitron digital watch:
the cool thing about it was that it was REALLY thin, not much thicker than the band.
I'd love to have a smartwatch that talked to my other iOS and OS X devices via bluetooth.
My bud has a Leaf and its key fob is pretty cool (just put the fob in your pocket and you don't need a key for the car), I could see the watch getting that functionality too.
If I were to design the smartwatch, it'd be about as small and thin as possible, so I don't see a platform for 3rd party apps all that much, since the display would be too small for touch input.
Shouldn't cost too much, either.
One thing Apple could do is move the watch industry beyond 7 seg LCD technology, LOL
evilmonkeyboy
2013 Mar 27, 1:04pm
My phone is great! It is a reasonable size, has a good size screen and is very funtional. There is no way a watch will replace my phone. To me it is a gimmick and I would not waste money on it.
evilmonkeyboy
2013 Mar 27, 1:16pm
My bud has a Leaf and its key fob is pretty cool (just put the fob in your pocket and you don't need a key for the car), I could see the watch getting that functionality too.
First of all it would make a lot more sense to have this technology on your phone vs a watch.
Second, I doubt that apple wants to get any where near key fobs because it opens up a whole new can of worms with the issue of stolen cars. Plus, who wants to have to enter a password on their phone to unlock their car or have to worry about their watch being charged to get into their car.
Bellingham Bill
2013 Mar 27, 5:09pm
has a good size screen and is very funtional. There is no way a watch will replace my phone. To me it is a gimmick and I would not waste money on it.
I can see it being a 2nd touchscreen for your phone.
Combine it with an earpiece and you'd never have to take your phone out.
Plus in the future the smartwatch would have the cell radio so it'd be the phone, too.
Be cool if the band were the battery. Shit, I should patent that . . .
JodyChunder
2013 Mar 27, 5:24pm
Be even cooler if more folks didn't feel the overwhelming "need" to have the internet with them at all times everywhere they went.
Besides, it could never rival my old Omega:
Be even cooler if more folks didn't feel the overwhelming "need" to have the internet with them at all times everywhere they went.
they are children... the need to burn money and then blame the "man" on why they are dirt poor at the end of the month..
oh well !
bmwman91
2013 Mar 28, 7:01am
Be even cooler if more folks didn't feel the overwhelming "need" to have the internet with them at all times everywhere they went.
Amen brother.
MsBennet
2013 Mar 28, 5:41pm
If I was a person who liked to short stocks, I would short Apple now. Samsung is coming out with a new phone that apparently is much better than the iPhone: Bigger screen, faster, removable battery, better screen clarity, etc. Apple is
442 right now.
bmwman91
2013 Mar 28, 6:31pm
Hard to say MsBennet. Friends that worked there were all telling me to load up on calls during the last two quarterly earnings releases because AAPL was going to show solid revenue growth (thank god I didn't). Well, they did, and the market shat all over AAPL anyway. So, while there does look to be a case for buying puts on AAPL, it's just too damn volatile and high profile to try to make fundamental-based decisions on in the short term. EVERYONE is trying to game it, and while AAPL is a highly profitable company that isn't going out of business anytime soon, trying to cash in on options with it has worse odds than picking a color at the roulette table.
EDIT: I accidentally hit "Dislike" instead of "Edit". LOLZ
If I was a person who liked to short stocks, I would short Apple now. Samsung is coming out with a new phone that apparently is much better than the iPhone: Bigger screen, faster, removable battery, better screen clarity, etc. Apple is
442 right now.
Apple has had an inferior product to Samsung since May 2011 when the Galaxy S-2 Skyrocket (AT&T) came out. That phone is superior to the Iphone 5. Dual core 1.5 ghz, 8mp camera, NFC, 4.5" display, LTE, replacable battery, micro SD card expansion. That phone was brilliant. I would argue that the Skyrocket is still a better device than the Iphone 5, and it is almost 2 year old technology.
You can also select any number of phones that are vastly superior to the Iphone 5. The Note 1, S-3, and Note 2 all come to mind.
I personally carry the Note 2. It is the best available phone at the moment. You can pick up a slightly used one on craigslist for 450 bucks or so, go get a prepaid 35-50 dollar cellphone plan and ditch your carrier who is charging you an arm and a leg for subsidized Iphones.
As far as an Iwatch, I have not read anything that even gets me remotely interested in putting a watch back on my wrist. Apple would have to come out with some killer software that everyone has completely missed. Maybe they will. I wouldn't bet on it though.
zzyzzx
2013 Mar 28, 11:10pm
EDIT: I accidentally hit "Dislike" instead of "Edit". LOLZ
I'm pretty sure that everyone here has clicked on the wrong one at least once.
IMO, Apple seems to be in a trading range and probably good for nothing except short term trading.
MsBennet
2013 Mar 29, 2:24am
craigslist for 450 bucks or so, go get a prepaid 35-50 dollar cellphone plan and ditch your carrier who is charging you an arm and a leg for subsidized Iphones.
Are you talking about like the Walmart plan? For a smartphone it can be 35-50 dollars? Sounds good to me.
bmwman91
2013 Mar 29, 5:40am
craigslist for 450 bucks or so, go get a prepaid 35-50 dollar cellphone plan and ditch your carrier who is charging you an arm and a leg for subsidized Iphones.
Are you talking about like the Walmart plan? For a smartphone it can be 35-50 dollars? Sounds good to me.
You pay for the device (somewhat limited options), $35/month unlimited data and texts, 300 minutes, no contracts. I have used it for years and am very happy. When VM gets the Galaxy S3 I will get a new device (Sprint, the bastards they partner with in the USA, is limiting their devices to get people to want to use Sprint's more expensive plans).
craigslist for 450 bucks or so, go get a prepaid 35-50 dollar cellphone plan and ditch your carrier who is charging you an arm and a leg for subsidized Iphones.
Are you talking about like the Walmart plan? For a smartphone it can be 35-50 dollars? Sounds good to me.
You pay for the device (somewhat limited options), $35/month unlimited data and texts, 300 minutes, no contracts. I have used it for years and am very happy. When VM gets the Galaxy S3 I will get a new device (Sprint, the bastards they partner with in the USA, is limiting their devices to get people to want to use Sprint's more expensive plans).
Also look at Wireless Republic. We have 2 in the family and pay $19 ($23 after tax and surcharges) per line (separate month -to-month contracts), unlimited everything, If you need in-person customer service, then don't bother, otherwise it's worth checking out. They have a seamless Wifi/Sprint switching system and you are encouraged to offload as many calls as possible, but it's not a mandate. Quality is decent, but you have to buy their phone, a Motorola Defy XT.
zzyzzx
2013 Apr 1, 5:07am
Since hitting an all-time high of $702.10 in September, Apple shares have slid some 35%. The drop is worse when you consider that the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) has risen 2.32% while the Dow (INDEXDJX:.DJI) has gained almost 7% in the same time period.
Apple shareholders got further bad news today as it was reported that the $92 billion Fidelity Contrafund, managed by Will Danoff, had reduced its stake in the iPhone maker by 10% in the first two months of 2013. According to its most recent monthly report, Fidelity, the largest active shareholder in Apple, held 10.43 million shares of Apple at the end of February. At the end of 2012, the fund had owned 11.56 million shares. News of Fidelity's actions probably explains why Apple has fallen over 1.5% in intraday trading so far today.
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Starting my New Year with a nice bump on the AAPL I picked up last year.
Consensus on AAPL to $500? It's testing 52-week high.