patrick.net

AAPL down to $431.67/sh

The stock may be due for a bounce soon, but after that don't be surprise to see the stock reaching close to $200/share within a year's time or so.

I loved what Jobs did, but the stock is broken after what the hedge funds did to it in 2012 above the 460+ island ramp job to $700.

People spend billions on watches because a $10000 watch is a high end piece of jewelry. A $200-300 watch will never fit that category. You can't brag about the techie equivalent of a Timex.

Smart watches could be interesting, but it'll take a really killer app to make them shine.

http://getpebble.com/

Honest to god, this is a vastly superior product to what it sounds like Apple is making. Who the FUCK wants to charge their goddamn watch every day?! Surf the web on a 1" screen? Riiiiight. I am not saying that there won't be some amazing technology baked into an incredibly small package by Apple's iWatch, but it seems like a completely impractical gimmick.

I was thinking about a month ago while driving down the freeway, what is Apple going to come up with next. First was the iPad, then the mini, and I thought what next. A computer watch?

I swear to God. It's true.

At that same time my next thought was the watch could project the display on a flat surface to enlarge it. Now, that will be weird if it comes true. You heard it here first. You are all my witnesses.

MsBennet says

At that same time my next thought was the watch could project the display on a flat surface to enlarge it. Now, that will be weird if it comes true. You heard it here first. You are all my witnesses.

I'm pretty sure I have seen stuff like this on TV, maybe sci-fi, but I am not sure. Would then see people watching their porn on walls in public places then.

Down to $422.91/sh

Going to 350/sh (odds?)

bmwman91 says

Honest to god, this is a vastly superior product to what it sounds like Apple is making. Who the FUCK wants to charge their goddamn watch every day?! Surf the web on a 1" screen? Riiiiight. I am not saying that there won't be some amazing technology baked into an incredibly small package by Apple's iWatch, but it seems like a completely impractical gimmick.

I have to agree, I can not think of a scenario where I would buy a "smart watch".

evilmonkeyboy says

I have to agree, I can not think of a scenario where I would buy a "smart watch".

If the watch can project an image onto a wall for you to see, then maybe, but then other people would be hanging around to watch your porn.

evilmonkeyboy says

I have to agree, I can not think of a scenario where I would buy a "smart watch".

not some clunky-ass block of metal, no.

But back in the 1980s I had this really cool Armitron digital watch:

the cool thing about it was that it was REALLY thin, not much thicker than the band.

I'd love to have a smartwatch that talked to my other iOS and OS X devices via bluetooth.

My bud has a Leaf and its key fob is pretty cool (just put the fob in your pocket and you don't need a key for the car), I could see the watch getting that functionality too.

If I were to design the smartwatch, it'd be about as small and thin as possible, so I don't see a platform for 3rd party apps all that much, since the display would be too small for touch input.

Shouldn't cost too much, either.

One thing Apple could do is move the watch industry beyond 7 seg LCD technology, LOL

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven-segment_display

My phone is great! It is a reasonable size, has a good size screen and is very funtional. There is no way a watch will replace my phone. To me it is a gimmick and I would not waste money on it.

Bellingham Bill says

My bud has a Leaf and its key fob is pretty cool (just put the fob in your pocket and you don't need a key for the car), I could see the watch getting that functionality too.

First of all it would make a lot more sense to have this technology on your phone vs a watch.
Second, I doubt that apple wants to get any where near key fobs because it opens up a whole new can of worms with the issue of stolen cars. Plus, who wants to have to enter a password on their phone to unlock their car or have to worry about their watch being charged to get into their car.

evilmonkeyboy says

has a good size screen and is very funtional. There is no way a watch will replace my phone. To me it is a gimmick and I would not waste money on it.

I can see it being a 2nd touchscreen for your phone.

Combine it with an earpiece and you'd never have to take your phone out.

Plus in the future the smartwatch would have the cell radio so it'd be the phone, too.

Be cool if the band were the battery. Shit, I should patent that . . .

Be even cooler if more folks didn't feel the overwhelming "need" to have the internet with them at all times everywhere they went.

Besides, it could never rival my old Omega:

JodyChunder says

Be even cooler if more folks didn't feel the overwhelming "need" to have the internet with them at all times everywhere they went.

they are children... the need to burn money and then blame the "man" on why they are dirt poor at the end of the month..

oh well !

JodyChunder says

Be even cooler if more folks didn't feel the overwhelming "need" to have the internet with them at all times everywhere they went.

Amen brother.

If I was a person who liked to short stocks, I would short Apple now. Samsung is coming out with a new phone that apparently is much better than the iPhone: Bigger screen, faster, removable battery, better screen clarity, etc. Apple is
442 right now.

Hard to say MsBennet. Friends that worked there were all telling me to load up on calls during the last two quarterly earnings releases because AAPL was going to show solid revenue growth (thank god I didn't). Well, they did, and the market shat all over AAPL anyway. So, while there does look to be a case for buying puts on AAPL, it's just too damn volatile and high profile to try to make fundamental-based decisions on in the short term. EVERYONE is trying to game it, and while AAPL is a highly profitable company that isn't going out of business anytime soon, trying to cash in on options with it has worse odds than picking a color at the roulette table.

EDIT: I accidentally hit "Dislike" instead of "Edit". LOLZ

MsBennet says

If I was a person who liked to short stocks, I would short Apple now. Samsung is coming out with a new phone that apparently is much better than the iPhone: Bigger screen, faster, removable battery, better screen clarity, etc. Apple is
442 right now.

Apple has had an inferior product to Samsung since May 2011 when the Galaxy S-2 Skyrocket (AT&T) came out. That phone is superior to the Iphone 5. Dual core 1.5 ghz, 8mp camera, NFC, 4.5" display, LTE, replacable battery, micro SD card expansion. That phone was brilliant. I would argue that the Skyrocket is still a better device than the Iphone 5, and it is almost 2 year old technology.

You can also select any number of phones that are vastly superior to the Iphone 5. The Note 1, S-3, and Note 2 all come to mind.

I personally carry the Note 2. It is the best available phone at the moment. You can pick up a slightly used one on craigslist for 450 bucks or so, go get a prepaid 35-50 dollar cellphone plan and ditch your carrier who is charging you an arm and a leg for subsidized Iphones.

As far as an Iwatch, I have not read anything that even gets me remotely interested in putting a watch back on my wrist. Apple would have to come out with some killer software that everyone has completely missed. Maybe they will. I wouldn't bet on it though.

bmwman91 says

EDIT: I accidentally hit "Dislike" instead of "Edit". LOLZ

I'm pretty sure that everyone here has clicked on the wrong one at least once.

IMO, Apple seems to be in a trading range and probably good for nothing except short term trading.

yup1 says

craigslist for 450 bucks or so, go get a prepaid 35-50 dollar cellphone plan and ditch your carrier who is charging you an arm and a leg for subsidized Iphones.

Are you talking about like the Walmart plan? For a smartphone it can be 35-50 dollars? Sounds good to me.

Market is closed today for Good Friday.

MsBennet says

yup1 says

craigslist for 450 bucks or so, go get a prepaid 35-50 dollar cellphone plan and ditch your carrier who is charging you an arm and a leg for subsidized Iphones.

Are you talking about like the Walmart plan? For a smartphone it can be 35-50 dollars? Sounds good to me.

www.virginmobileusa.com

You pay for the device (somewhat limited options), $35/month unlimited data and texts, 300 minutes, no contracts. I have used it for years and am very happy. When VM gets the Galaxy S3 I will get a new device (Sprint, the bastards they partner with in the USA, is limiting their devices to get people to want to use Sprint's more expensive plans).

bmwman91 says

MsBennet says

yup1 says

craigslist for 450 bucks or so, go get a prepaid 35-50 dollar cellphone plan and ditch your carrier who is charging you an arm and a leg for subsidized Iphones.

Are you talking about like the Walmart plan? For a smartphone it can be 35-50 dollars? Sounds good to me.

www.virginmobileusa.com

You pay for the device (somewhat limited options), $35/month unlimited data and texts, 300 minutes, no contracts. I have used it for years and am very happy. When VM gets the Galaxy S3 I will get a new device (Sprint, the bastards they partner with in the USA, is limiting their devices to get people to want to use Sprint's more expensive plans).

Also look at Wireless Republic. We have 2 in the family and pay $19 ($23 after tax and surcharges) per line (separate month -to-month contracts), unlimited everything, If you need in-person customer service, then don't bother, otherwise it's worth checking out. They have a seamless Wifi/Sprint switching system and you are encouraged to offload as many calls as possible, but it's not a mandate. Quality is decent, but you have to buy their phone, a Motorola Defy XT.

http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/Apple2527s-Stock-Price-Is-Still-Dropping/4/1/2013/id/49007

Since hitting an all-time high of $702.10 in September, Apple shares have slid some 35%. The drop is worse when you consider that the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) has risen 2.32% while the Dow (INDEXDJX:.DJI) has gained almost 7% in the same time period.

Apple shareholders got further bad news today as it was reported that the $92 billion Fidelity Contrafund, managed by Will Danoff, had reduced its stake in the iPhone maker by 10% in the first two months of 2013. According to its most recent monthly report, Fidelity, the largest active shareholder in Apple, held 10.43 million shares of Apple at the end of February. At the end of 2012, the fund had owned 11.56 million shares. News of Fidelity's actions probably explains why Apple has fallen over 1.5% in intraday trading so far today.

BoomAndBustCycle says

They might be worried about the history of Nokia repeating itself. Trees don't grow to the sky. OTOH, if I had to bet on AAPL (P/E=10) or FB (PE=289), I'd bet AAPL.

Android is an open source OS any manufacturer can license, in fact the Open Source Consortium (a partnership of many firms from around the world, from Samsung to HTC to Google, as well as multiple phone companies in the US and around the world) wants as many companies using it in their phones as possible. Android runs on a Linux kernel.

Apple does not license their proprietary black box OS at all, period, to other manufacturers and certainly never their direct competition in the mobile device field.

Google does not manufacture devices, it only writes software. Apple does both.

Android was mocked when first introduced. Yet despite Apple's incredible, massive lead over it, it is now far and away the dominant mobile OS.

Down to $406.41/sh 10:18AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

Graybox says

Going to 350/sh (odds?)

High Probability

http://news.yahoo.com/apple-stock-falls-one-low-supplier-news-154902181--finance.html

Apple stock falls to one-year low on supplier news

NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Apple Inc. fell below $400 for the first time in a year and half on Wednesday, after a supplier hinted at a slowdown in iPhone and iPad production.

The stock was down $21.89, or 5.1 percent, at $404.35 in early afternoon trading. Earlier in the day, it hit $398.11, the lowest level since Dec. 2011.

The decline means Apple has —for now— lost its position as the world's most valuable publicly traded company to Exxon Mobil Corp., which has a market capitalization a few billion dollars above Apple's $380 billion price tag.

Late Tuesday, Cirrus Logic Inc., which supplies audio chips for the iPhone and iPad, said sales of a particular chip are slowing down as an unnamed customer moves to a newer component.

Analyst Peter Misek at Jefferies & Co. said Cirrus' news suggests a big decline in Apple sales in the April to June period. That supports his view that Apple is unlikely to launch a new iPad Mini in the quarter, and that the next version of the full-size iPad may launch late in the quarter rather than early. In the last three years, Apple has launched a new iPad in March or April.

Apple does not comment on its suppliers' announcements or its product plans. It's set to report results for the January to March quarter on Tuesday.

The latest decline in the stock comes after a bruising winter for Apple. The company's stock is down 42 percent from its all-time high of $705.07, hit on Sept. 21 when the iPhone 5 went on sale. Investors have concluded that with the demise of co-founder Steve Jobs, Apple may never again create another ground-breaking product of the magnitude of the iPhone or iPad.

aapl down to $398 today.

This thread is still going?

Personally I mostly unloaded AAPL a while back although I did keep a small block.

If it hits $350 I will think hard about reloading.

Vicente says

Personally I mostly unloaded AAPL a while back although I did keep a small block.

If it hits $350 I will think hard about reloading.

Although I don't own any myself it happens to be 1 I follow.

This is how I see it going down... Watch price @ 385 for some "short term buying", which would be the only way I would be trading AAPL at this time. I would split my risk and perhaps take a shot @385 for 40pts +/-, not a all in situation however it very well could turn into it. Ultimately, my plan would be to "TEST buys" if it gets to 360-350 and leave a 1/3 or what ever your risk management allows for the possibility of the 325s. Make the M-Ms prove "price" to you with solid confirmation.

Wish you well, just don't get in a hurry or ahead of the market and trade it based on price performance.

Regardless of all that you hear AAPL 250-200 isn't off the table, it's just to soon to calc. the odds.

chanakya4773 says

where is clambo and thomas wang.

Probably in bankruptcy.

My reasoning has very little to do with fundamentals being that I am a conceptual/technical trader. I know markets do what the hell they want regardless of all the fundamental talk.

However, I am aware of some of the fundamental attributes, I just leave those for the longer term investors, because I am 1 who shoots for tops and bottoms which fundamentals are useless for that purpose.

My system calculates logical price points that contain the odds and edge based on several factors and anchors that weigh price, and it is simply pointing @350+/-, and as a trader I can test other price points along the way, however treating them more like counter trend measures instead of home run plays so at a min. I will have something in the game if price is knocked out of the field. Your welcome to look at some of my other comments and judge my tactics yourself.

I apologize if my answer is void of much help to you which is probably due to me actually being a trader. The odds are I make more trade in a month then most do in their life time giving me some edge over others just due to the pure experience in volume.

Depending on the circumstance 500/1 leverage is on the table for certain trades I participate, which all I can say about that is you better know your odds and have solid risk management practices.

I am far from a sophisticated investor, I'm just a trader that will take the trades as they come regardless of what the gurus and experts have to say.

Graybox says

I am far from a sophisticated investor, I'm just a trader that will take the trades as they come regardless of what the gurus and experts have to say.

Aren't the gurus and experts just there to get on the mainstream news and herd the retail sheep? I don't really ascribe much value to the highly publicized experts' opinions because I don't believe that anything they do is in anyone's interest but their own. There have been some (apparent) exceptions, but I trust nobody.

Do the numbers support the Doomers?

chanakya4773 says

Why do you think $350 is the bottom ?

I could go on about P/E. I could prognosticate with lots of charts. In this case I'm going on nothing other than that's about what I bought my first AAPL shares for back around the time the iPad1 came out.

Vicente says

Do the numbers support the Doomers?

They are not my #s so I don't have an opinion. I said about all I can say about my best "guess" as to what "I" see the possibilities.

Vicente says

I bought my first AAPL shares for back around the time the iPad1 came out.

My question for you is; did you take any profits since you bought, and if not "why"?