patrick.net

My Father taught me to read between the lines when listening to the news.
You need to understand WHO the source is, He said.
W.T.F. was not yet allowed in Stoic Catholic households.
I now enjoy trying to understand what an individual's impetus is. Most Writers are transparent intentionally. You might think some of the authors lost their families life's savings due to misrepresentation by certain professionals that we all rely on. Some hooligans were either picked on in their youth or are really intent on savagely molesting an ideology (realtors) with the fantasy hope of some real benefit or return.
I find the majority have intentions of benefiting fellow Patrick.net readers through their own personal experiences.
I feel the "ignore button" is how we treat the homeless. With a little tact, most people benefit from constructive Criticism.
I propose the "ignore button" title should be tested as an "Intervention Button".
Bottom line; Netreality, take in all the info you can, then shoot from the hip.
No business or gubmint benefits by reducing confidence. Nor does Patrick.net benefit for providing access to unbiased news.

My Father's plaque set attop of the Corkscrew. Thanks Dad.

I'm kind of sympathetic to obnoxious people because I have a hard time not being obnoxious myself sometimes. But if I really make the effort to understand how my reasoning threatens someone's desired conclusions, the conversation is definitely more productive.

Patrick.net started as me summarizing all the arguments I heard about housing while riding in the bike car on Caltrain every day up to my job in SF during the dot-com bubble. The summary is on these pages:

http://patrick.net/housing/crash1.html and 2 and 3.

What I got out of several years of argument was this: People do not reason forward, from facts to conclusions. Instead, they reason backwards, starting with a conclusion they like (house prices will go up, I will get rich, I will live forever in heaven with Jesus) and then looking for evidence and arguments that support their desired conclusions. They also tend to congregate (in congregations!) with people who have the same desired conclusions, because then they don't have to deal with those pesky people who don't accept their conclusions from the get-go.

So the process of converting people to your way of thinking doesn't involve facts as much as it does outlining some alternate vision of their own happiness.

Original harmful vision, planted by realtors for their own benefit: "If you just own a home, no matter what you borrow and pay, then you will be happy."

Patrick's alternate vision: "If you just avoid crushing debt, then you will have much more real freedom in your life, and you'll be happy. At least happier than the guy in debt is."

TMAC54 says

Nor does Patrick.net benefit for providing access to unbiased news.

True. So far the benefit to me has been truly minimal. I've tried all kinds of business models but none have clicked so far. The problem is that telling people not to take out a mortgage leaves no honest way to get at the traditional real estate revenue streams (commissions and interest payments).

In the end its all about your own personal way of how you decide to live your life. There is no universal answer.

You just have to take everyone's opinion (including mine) with a grain of salt. After all, what I love you may hate and vice versa.

I remember looking at a house that was at the intersection of sepulveda and 405 - as we pulled up I said to the realtor "You kidding, right??? Who on earth wants to live here..?"
Then, there was the couple from NY that literally told their realor, find us something on a busy street. My husband can't sleep if its quiet. - Go figure. There is something out there for everyone. Some people hate the concept of debt. Others feel completely comfortable with it. My own personal opinion is this...I have to live somewhere so either way I will have to cough up $xxx for the rest of my life. Renting or owning. So having a mortgage now after years of renting doesn't really feel so different. I don't feel enslaved. Actually, the interest portion on my mortgage (the throw out part) is WAY less than what my rent used to be. And (once again a personal opinion) I feel completely different waking up in my own house (yes, its own by the bank until I paid it off blablabla - anyways, I own it, I can do what I want). Most of my friends that have recently bought for the first time in their lives say that. It feels so different. You see a broken outlet and replace it with joy. It's yours. Rentals are all beat up places which proves how renters feel about their home. Use it, abuse it and move on.

Renting, Owning all have advantages and disadvantages - you just have to figure out what is most important to yourself.

You just have to zone out the permabears and/or permabulls. The truth will always be somewhere in between.

Or...just wait for 1975 prices...lol - I am looking forward to that too...I will buy 100 houses then.

Manbearpig says

Doubtful that it's a 75% drop?

You will find areas which inflated by +300%, and are prime candiates for a correction. When you factor a normal historical apprication of 40% max over the past 12-13 years, the difference would indicate a fall of 65-75%.

These regions may be the most affluent areas of the state. As was the case in 1988-89 the prime candidates was uber upper class Orange County which saw home values fall by 40%. The "less affuent" regions of So Call, like Riverside, were not impacted.. they didnt inflate in prices and didnt fall.

Netreality says

This forum is lost to the first faction.

With all due respect, no one is forcing you to visit this blog.

Personally, I am not suffering financially because of this blog.

Also, 'knowledgeable commentators'? The New York Times or a report from the Federal Reserve is not good enough for you? I am comfortable discussing Real Estate at work because I can say it came from this source.

Anything else wouldn't be very nice.

Helloeeze says

Of course, Las Vegas has a long way to still drop. The Bay Area less so.

First, taking this example this is an example of a 72% drop in price from a peak point in Las Vegas: ({sigh} unknowledgeable commentators...)

http://www.redfin.com/NV/Las-Vegas/8400-Wildheart-Ranch-St-89131/home/28984574

I found this example quickly as there are so many listings, so, I don't know about the neighborhood, etc. It looks nice to me.

Not saying Las Vegas won't drop more, I'm open to out of the box thinking.

"I don't think it would hurt at all to wait." Yeah, come to his conclusion lately.

Damn, outside Peets in Menlo Park today, I read was a front page article on the Mercury News in the newstand about how high-end house prices are now falling rapidly, with foreclosures and short sales.

Yet that article is not on their website! Why not?

Patrick, I know we can ignore people, except when they come back under another name, but I think the person calling everyone "squealing lying bitch realtors" probably has overstepped his boundaries a bit, or am I over reaching here?

GoranK says

Patrick, I know we can ignore people, except when they come back under another name, but I think the person calling everyone "squealing lying bitch realtors" probably has overstepped his boundaries a bit, or am I over reaching here?

One nice thing about the ignore function is that it still works even if they change their username in their Profile. They would have to re-register using a different email address to evade the ignore filter.

Yes, that's overstepping boundaries, and that's what the Jail forum will be for. But what exactly is the offense that gets you put there, for how long, etc? I'd like it to all be very clear and not supress anyone's right to say what they really think.

Rather than just make it some judgement call on my part, it would be nice if it had really clear parameters, like "you got X flags and Y ignores in Z amount of time".

Helloeeze says

I don't think anyone knows for sure which way the market will go for sure. I think Robert Schiller was pretty on top of it when he said a year ago that homes would continue to decline in price. It really depends on the area. Of course, Las Vegas has a long way to still drop. The Bay Area less so.

I think you have that backwards..

Helloeeze says

The average nothing engineer makes at least 100K.

Which doesn't even qualify him to buy a starter home built by an uneducated construction worker in less than 3 months.

Helloeeze says

Yeah, but his wife makes 300K. So save the wife's income for a couple years and you got a nice down payment.

What woman making 300K/year would marry a nothing engineer who only makes 100K/year?

dunnross says

What woman making 300K/year would marry a nothing engineer who only makes 100K/year?

Well,

maybe they love each other.

Rather than just make it some judgement call on my part, it would be nice if it had really clear parameters, like "you got X flags and Y ignores in Z amount of time".

I think this is flawed because if I was a douchebag with a lot of time on my hands I could just make multiple accounts and ignore/flag the same guy over and over to keep him in jail. And I just generally don't like the ignore feature because I don't like seeing threads with missing posts. The flag feature is a good one though, but I think that you really just need to have moderators who are trusted with a little bit of power to keep the forums in line.

Helloeeze says

Sorry to tell you but your target audience isn't here. You are talking to the air.......

I dunno, buddy. I'm one that is being swayed to the idea that realtors are, by and large, corrupt. I didn't think that before coming to this site. I have acquaintances who are realtors, never really thought of them as "bad" people, just thought they were making a lot of money doing something I didn't understand.

But since reading this blog (yes, including the more "outrageous" comments) it seems that realtors really are a harmful bunch.

You might not care for this guy's comments, but they do have a place. I find his comments no more "overstepping boundaries" than the incessant stories in the mainstream press about how prices are "close to the bottom" and they just "unexpectedly" dropped again.

Patrick,

Why about a self-moderating system? If someone's post gets 5 flags on any number of posts within a certain time period (maybe 1-2 hours?), the comment immediately goes invisible, or they get put in the jail forum.

Less time baby sitting too.

I like this forum, and bear or bull, I like the input from the people not calling me a realtor bitch.

I only have one account, and I didn't even flag your post even though you called me a realtor bitch.

I'm not a realtor, or agent, I don't think I could work on commission. I'm a horrible salesperson.

But that doesn't excuse the fact that the way you communicate really sucks.

He really needs to grow up and get that chip off his shoulder, he wasn't even smart enough to think of that for himself. I brought that up. And he basically called me a realtor bitch for it. LOL

He calls everyone a realtor bitch (or should that be LYING, CORRUPT, REALTOR BITCH?) who doesn't think prices are going to drop a further 65/75/85/95/whatever takes his fancy this particular day %.

The thing to remember is that real estate is about 90% based in psychology. Most people buy houses for purely emotional, symbolic reasons and not necessarily financial ones. Also- in areas like the Peninsula where prices are high no matter what metrics being used, its more or less a target for emotions from people on both sides simply because so much is at stake. Those who want to buy will have to make an enormous financial commitment and in many cases they will lean heavily on that choice as a major factor towards their future financial well being. Those who don't buy because they can't afford it or they're uncomfortable paying the prices naturally have an incentive to see prices fall. Those who invest in real estate naturally have an incentive to see prices rise and in some instances they will make attempts to boost the overall notion of real estate for that cause.

Its all raw human emotion and when we're talking about $700,000 2 and 3 bedroom suburban starter homes from the 50's then the emotional stakes are that much higher. No matter what forum you're on.

Yes, people buy for emotional reasons rather than financial ones, but it's still often a financial suicide around here. What's even worse is that "your" realtor sees you on that ledge and gives you a shove off to your financial death so that they can profit from it.

So I say "Look, here is an alternate vision of happiness for you, one without a house right here right now, but also without that huge poisonous debt." And all the tension an fear about overspending then becomes conviction that not buying is the right thing to do in such a toxic real estate environment.

And it also becomes self-fulfilling truth: if enough people see that it's financial suicide to overspend like that, then they refuse to do it, and prices come down. It's a battle for minds.

Case in point.

Yet another forum topic taken over by people insulting each other, without a single answer to the question.

I still think housing is overpriced in the bay area, RBA, and many micro-markets. I also think Silicon Valley is a major hot-spot of strong employment, high salaries, IPOs, many millionaires, trust fund babies, etc. that will prevent prices from dropping much in the near future. That's my current assessment of reality. I need another place to live. Rentals are as overpriced as housing in towns near my job, my spouse’s job, good schools.

I have been visiting Patrick.net for many years, and occasionally still get good nuggets of info, but they are drowned in the overwhelming spew of verbal diarrhea.

All for free speech, but I'm starting to believe if you wouldn't be willing to say it to a real person, face-to-face, you should think twice or three or ten times before posting it. Free speech means you won't be arrested by the government, but it doesn't have to mean you're a welcome contributor to every random forum for which you have an idea.

Can I ignore certain people and not the whole thread? Would I have to spend hours ‘ignoring’ people to make it a good experience for me? Not worth it.

Let's be honest too, places like Cupertino, and Los Gatos aren't going back to 1998 prices nominally regardless of what rents are. Too many asians who actually think Cupertino prices are CHEAP compared to what they can buy back home.

The demographics of the city have shifted so much that for Cupertino to fall in price by 65%, you would have to get rid of all the foreigners living there now.

Prices will get chopped in places like Vallejo, or West Oakland, yes, and they have fallen. Places like Cupertino... no.

No they won't, unless you make housing prices in Singapore and Hong Kong drastically go down, which they won't since there are so many people living there that people pay $200 a month to live in a chicken cage 3 feet high and 6 feet wide, against a wall in a slumlord's building in Kowloon District.

Manbearpig says

The second faction is realtors.

Prices will probably still drop some more. Maybe a lot. Doubtful that it's a 75% drop?

Bubbles tend to overcorrect so we've got a bit of a ways to go still. And when prices do start going up it won't be fast so you won't be missing out on some great buy.

Is this reasonable enough for you?

Maybe you should accept that you're not going to hear what you want to hear about real estate right now. Or you could read the nytimes etc, which regularly publishes articles quoting "experts" about how there are again "unexpected" drops in home prices.

You can tell they are "knowledgeable" by the amount of times they are caught unexpected-like.

clambo says

Don't listen to anyone's opinion. Go look at places like Zillow. Click around and see graph of house prices over 10 years. See that huge bubble? Then, see the number of foreclosures compared to total houses for sale. See how there are 100 foreclosures out of 200 houses? See the median price of house, see the median income of the town. Prices 10X median income? Zillions of foreclosures? 15% plus unemployment? This area has houses that are going down.

Check out various towns and see what is happening. Not all locations are going to lose the same amount of value.

Helloeeze says

I am able to ignore the extremists here. I read about 3 words of their post and then ignore the rest and wonder briefly what made them so angry.

I don't think anyone knows for sure which way the market will go for sure. I think Robert Schiller was pretty on top of it when he said a year ago that homes would continue to decline in price. It really depends on the area. Of course, Las Vegas has a long way to still drop. The Bay Area less so.

I don't think it would hurt at all to wait.

Netreality says

Case in point.

Yet another forum topic taken over by people insulting each other, without a single answer to the question.

Are you trolling? Did you read the thread? There are plenty of people here being reasonable and answering your question. A question which is purposefully aggressive I might add.

Can you at least try to explain how prices in Cupertino will fall that low (to 1990s prices)?

Cupertino is still selling at pretty much the same prices as 2006, even after the crash. Is there going to be another imminent huge crash coming?

there are no extremists here, only realists and realtors.

So I say "Look, here is an alternate vision of happiness for you, one without a house right here right now, but also without that huge poisonous debt." And all the tension an fear about overspending then becomes conviction that not buying is the right thing to do in such a toxic real estate environment.

That's easier said than done. Its not really about happiness but societal expectation. We've all been led to believe that as Americans, the ultimate symbol of success is attaining what amounts to a middle class existence: getting married, having a coupla' kids, owning a house on a culdesac, and so on. We are told that if we get married, have kids, get to a certain age, etc etc that buying a home is logically what must happen next because its been so deeply ingrained to our heads. It'd be a lie if I too didn't admit I'd like to buy a house and probably because I too have overhyped visions of ordinary, if not boring aspirations of having my own house where boring things like plumbing, a garage full of junk, and a few trees and shrubs out back are all within "my" domain. As if I would instantly have more stability and ... "reliability" in my life. Looking at it that way a lot of Americans put an enormous emphasis on trying to attain a stable and perhaps boring, middle class existence.

Not to hijack a thread but.

Patrick... the problem you have is that over the years certain posters write the same one or two points incessantly - with minimal or no data to back them up. Call them out on it, and they start getting defensive and assuming that anyone who would question them must be part of the real estate cartel.

When you first started this forum you were ahead of the curve. You saw recognized the bubble for what it was. But now that its seriously deflated, you're theme's a bit tired. Don’t get me wrong I love reading the daily links, but the forum itself has seemed to become a bit of a parody of itself. Very little serious well thought out discussions are present anymore, which is a shame because at one point it was more civl around here and frankly, more engaging.

I still lurk myself, but as I can only tell my story so many times, I’ve chosen not to post as much, lest I too sound like a broken record.

With respect to the OP – I do not know enough about the West coast to offer you any objective advise or commentary, but certainly some around here can – so long as they don’t get drowned out by the white noise that has become certain posters.

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

Don’t get me wrong I love reading the daily links, but the forum itself has seemed to become a bit of a parody of itself. Very little serious well thought out discussions are present anymore.

discussion around here is fairly crappy right now, but it was pretty bad 5 years ago also. there were a lot more super-retarded-brain-dead bulls back then. now they are mostly just irritating.

anyway, it's always the same arguments from both sides. i haven't read anything novel in months. same with all the real estate forums/blogs: irvinehousingblog, redfin, socketsite, burbed, seattlebubblelog - same old folks, same tired arguments, same jokes, nothing new.

also the authors at pigginton, seattlebubbleblog and njrereport have bought homes. irvinerenter will probably buy next in a year or two. another sign that we're getting slowly back to normal.

this is great news. real estate is getting really, really boring which means not many are making big money. this is exactly how i prefer it to be. as people lose interest, demand will lessen and reach a natural sustainable level. buying a house will once again become a lifestyle choice and less of an investment decision.

when all the RE blogss have finally shut down because no one reads them anymore, that really will be a great time to buy.

If you want unbiased opinion you won't get one anywhere. Bias lies in self interest. I'm sure real estate brokers will tell you otherwise.

Here on p.net you'll at least get the rainbow of opinions. If you don't like it, there are plenty of opinions on the internet you can listen to.

Some people bring up some good points. The bubble popped. Prices have come down. But I think the 'unofficial' theme is basically that prices haven't come down enough and in particular in specific areas like the core Bay Area. That probably creates a bit of irritation amongst those who counted on the pop to return to sane prices. What wasn't anticipated was that there has been an enormous amount of interference on part of the government, investors, and numerous attempts to revive the housing market. Thus the correction has been painfully slow as a result. We are basically in a holding pattern of "What now?" In the meantime the same arguments are rehashed over and over again. Thus the content is stale.

The other way I look at it is that people haven't changed. Even the biggest recession in decades and the non-stop blame on housing for causing it hasn't changed habits. People will continue buy the absolute most expensive houses they can barely squeeze into and so on. This is still very much alive and well in the Bay Area.

Hysteresis says

same jokes, nothing new.

I dunno, the Caligula line on another other thread was new to me... http://patrick.net/?p=1207417#comment-791354

ContStinks DeGroot says

GoranK says

Patrick,

Why about a self-moderating system? If someone's post gets 5 flags on any number of posts within a certain time period (maybe 1-2 hours?), the comment immediately goes invisible, or they get put in the jail forum.

Working on it! Give me a couple of days.

Wow. I didn't expect that. I feel like I have a small sliver of voice on this forum. Thanks.

Goran_K says

Wow. I didn't expect that. I feel like I have a small sliver of voice on this forum. Thanks.

Very happy to do what the readers want. Well, most of the readers, most of the time.

Please send me more suggestions.

More than half done with the jail thing, and "following" kind of like Twitter. Current scheme: a net of three "ignores" in one week gets you in jail for a week. Ignores will be offset by "follows". That's what makes it net.

Most people don't have anyone ignoring them. A few people have most of them:

http://patrick.net/users.php?ob=ignoredby&d=desc

Apocalypsefuck is an interesting case. He's got a lot of ignores, but I bet he'll get a lot of followers too.

Too frustrating to come up with an algorithm. And I've spent way too much time on it.

Anyone who insults another user will get put in Jail for a week.

Anyone who uses "libtard" or "libruhl" will be deleted.

Anyone who is acting like a dick will be deleted.

I have spoken.

Well, I'd actually prefer libtard to "realtor bitch", but I get the point!

I only have 2 ignores. Once again - im too nice, dammit!

We're doing our best to create the resource you are looking for.

http://bayarearealestatetrends.com/