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freak80
2012 Mar 9, 3:51am
The media very disingenuously reports only one side of this issue: we added jobs. What kind of jobs?
Shitty jobs.
dunnross
2012 Mar 9, 4:05am
Problem is lower home prices CREATES more debt! Because in order for homes to sell people have to sell at a loss, putting them in a bigger hole of debt. If Fannie or Freddie own the loan and the "owner" defaults, then YOU the taxpayer go into more debt.
Wrong. Lower house prices reduces debt. Nobody sells at a loss these days. You just walk away. Walking away is the de-leveraging of debt. Higher house prices and lower interest rates increases debt, because new buyers are being convinced that it is OK to get into more debt, as long as their payments are low. This is how we got into this mess in the first place, and perpetuating it is only going to get us deeper into the hole. Now, if the owner "defaults", and there are no bailouts, the only one taking the loss is the bond holder, not the tax payer. So far, with all these bailouts, no bond holder has taken a loss, only the tax payer has. The gov't has done everything wrong leading up to the crises, and they are doing everything wrong to lead us out of it, by keeping the "hopium" debt spigot going. This policy will only delay the ultimate recovery. Welcome to Japan II.
dunnross
2012 Mar 9, 4:29am
Because in order for homes to sell people have to sell at a loss, putting them in a bigger hole of debt.
Also, even selling at a loss, doesn't increase debt. What increased debt was buying an overpriced house. Let's look at a hypothetical debt balance sheet when a distressed seller sells his house for a loss:
A debt B debt Total debt
A buys overpriced house for $1M putting 10% down +900K 900K
A sells house for $800K short-sale (takes $100K loss) -900K 0K
B buys house from A on short-sale for $800K with 20% down +640K 640K
As you can see, the sale of the house when the prices dropped 20% and stricter lending has resulted in a total debt reduction of close to 30% in debt.
zzyzzx
2012 Mar 9, 4:36am
The media very disingenuously reports only one side of this issue: we added jobs. What kind of jobs?
Shitty jobs.
Now, if the owner "defaults", and there are no bailouts, the only one taking the loss is the bond holder, not the tax payer.
"if there are no bailouts"... being the key sentence. If you think another big leg down in housing won't be followed by an equally large bailout, then so be it. I don't think the government has an option to stop the money spigot if the economy/housing takes a steeper downturn.
Where do most of the votes they need come from? Elderly Homeowners... They will cater government policy to them for another 20+ years.
Apple is adding thousands of jobs for Americans....in TEXAS where else?
They'll be making another post-apocalypse movie soon: "Escape from California".
Yeah, the weather here is nicer. We knew that.
bubblesitter
2012 Mar 9, 5:20am
Where do most of the votes they need come from? Elderly Homeowners...
Wrong.
freak80
2012 Mar 9, 5:21am
They'll be making another post-apocalypse movie soon: "Escape from California".
Starring Tony Manero as Apocalypsefuck.
The labor participation rate can change from a number of different factors.
1) Generational. As baby boomers retire they are less apt to need to work. Social security has penalties if you make too much money. So technically that doesn't really increase participation..it lowers it.
2) Technology. It isn't a bad thing but in some ways technology has replaced the concepts of doing certain tasks. 15 years ago I could find kodak fotomats in every town. Now it's replaced by a kiosk in a drug store or walmart. One reason why HP is doing bad is not many really print out photos anymore
Wrong.
All that said is the young voted for Obama.. The 18-24 year-old voter is still a minority compared to the boomer population.
The Obama vs. McCain vote wasn't the.. let housing prices fall vote vs. stop the bleeding vote.
And so far I don't think an Obama win will be bad at all for the housing market... He's not exactly Anti-Housing.
rootvg
2012 Mar 9, 8:05am
Wrong.
All that said is the young voted for Obama.. The 18-24 year-old voter is still a minority compared to the boomer population.
The Obama vs. McCain vote wasn't the.. let housing prices fall vote vs. stop the bleeding vote.
The 18-24 voters don't normally show up in huge numbers and they won't show up this time, either. ACORN is gone, George Soros' antics are out in the open now and Obama has a record to run on. Also, the average new graduate today is out of work. Engineering and sciences majors probably not so much but business and non-techs? For sure. A lot of Baby Boomers still have those jobs and they're not giving them up.
The race will be won or lost in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. It's always the same. Ohio has picked the winner since 1960 and there's no reason to believe it won't do so again this year. Ten years from now it may be different because it'll lose another one or two Electoral votes but that's eight years away.
Apple is adding thousands of jobs for Americans....in TEXAS where else?
They'll be making another post-apocalypse movie soon: "Escape from California".
Yeah, the weather here is nicer. We knew that.
There is plenty of space in N. San Jose toFremont for Apple to occupy and hire, but certainly Texas gives them incentives to move jobs out of CA. R&D (Engineers). Accountants (CPAs), Financial an Planning Analysts (MBAs), and other operstions are in Texas.
Sources: Apple adds to Austin-area office space for Intrinsity chip unit, Aug. 4, 2010
Computer maker's lease of 55,000-square-foot building one of several local deals taking place, experts say
In one of the larger Austin-area office leases of the year, Apple Inc. will move its newly acquired Intrinsity chip-design unit into the Vista Ridge 2 office building on Southwest Austin's edge, according to sources familiar with the transaction.
Apple will lease 55,000 square feet, the entire building, which is near Capital of Texas Highway (Loop 360) and Lost Creek Boulevard. Intrinsity will move from about 20,000 square feet in Lake Pointe Center on Bee Cave Road.
The deal is one of several major lease deals in the local office market, which is seeing a number of companies quietly expand, including technology firms, local office brokers say.
Kristin Huguet, a spokeswoman for Apple, said the company had no comment and did not respond to a subsequent e-mail the Cupertino, Calif.-based company's plans for expansion in Austin
In April, Apple confirmed that it had bought Intrinsity Inc., which at the time had 100 workers, many of them veteran chip designers. Industry analysts say Intrinsity designed key parts of a chip in Apple's iPad.
Apple had a significant presence in Austin before the Intrinsity acquisition, including customer service and accounting operations.
Apple doesn't provide information on its work force by location, Huguet said. Local tech industry observers estimate Apple employs more than 2,500 people in Central Texas.
Apple has more than 400,000 square feet of office space at Riata Crossing in Northwest Austin.
and nearly 2 years later...
March 9, 2012, 2:36 p.m. ET.Apple Plans To Double Texas Facilities, Invest $304 Million
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120309-712163.html
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)--Apple Inc. (AAPL) plans to build a $304 million campus in Austin, Texas, doubling its presence there over the next decade.
The Cupertino, Calif., company said it will add 3,600 jobs in the next 10 years to its existing work force of 3,500 employees there. Apple said the move is part of a rapid expansion from 1,000 employees in 2004.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry's office said most of the jobs will be in sales, customer support and accounting for the area. In exchange, the state offered Apple a $21 million investment over 10 years through its business development efforts called the Texas Enterprise Fund.
"Apple is known for its bold innovation and game-changing designs, and the expansion of their Austin facility adds to the growing list of visionary high-tech companies that have found that Texas' economic climate is a perfect fit for their future," Perry said in a statement. "Investments like this further Texas' potential to become the nation's next high-tech hub."
Mean while back in Silicon Valley.. some still arent hearing it..
Fresh out of Texas U, you think they care their new job isnt in California ?
Smile everyone.. they are doing what could have been your job.
2) Technology. It isn't a bad thing but in some ways technology has replaced the concepts of doing certain tasks. 15 years ago I could find kodak fotomats in every town. Now it's replaced by a kiosk in a drug store or walmart. One reason why HP is doing bad is not many really print out photos anymore
A semiconductor or drive parts are and always have been made by machines for decades. It has always been impossible to create and test 1M+ circuits on a semi chip waffer (AMD, Intel,TI, Seimens, Toshiba etc). But what or who makes the machines which makes the semis mfg machines? No other machines..its all labor...Thats always been and will continue to me Man-Made.. From stepper to tester/prober machines (Applied, LAM, TEL, Varian, Siemens). Its not possible to automate such machine production.
rootvg
2012 Mar 9, 11:06am
Mean while back in Silicon Valley.. some still arent hearing it..
Fresh out of Texas U, you think they care their new job isnt in California ?
Smile everyone.. they are doing what could have been your job.
The problem with Texas, especially for someone from California is the climate and then the culture. Austin is the most liberal major metro in Texas and there are a lot of relocated Californians already there but I suspect you'll find a lot of young kids going there, finding out it's too damn hot and too far away from the rest of the country and WAY too hot to stay there long term.
After the first year, I was sick every single day I lived there. If you're not raised around all that mold and cedar and God knows what else, the place won't work. You or your wife will end up with an auto immune disease you can't get rid of or (in our case) the allergist actually told me to get her the hell out of there as soon as I could. Six months after we moved to California, ninety percent of the symptoms went away and that's been ten years ago.
If you can go there as a new grad and keep your mouth shut about the backward fucking way they seem to do everything, you'll last long enough to build a resume and go somewhere nice. If you're a chronic bitcher or you can't keep from trying to sell those rednecks on how they do things elsewhere, forget it. Something bad will happen to you.
The problem with Texas, especially for someone from California is the climate and then the culture.
For many its not going to matter... if one candidate declines, there will be plenty others will accept. No different if it was IBM, Intel, Dell, HP or GE in any othe city or state outside of CA.
Typically, we only have 1000-2000 emloyees / per large employer working in the BA. for these large companies. Far many more are outside of the region. Those are the realities.
rootvg
2012 Mar 9, 11:22am
The problem with Texas, especially for someone from California is the climate and then the culture.
For many its not going to matter... if one candidate declines, there will be plenty others will accept. No different if it was IBM, Intel, Dell, HP or GE in any othe city or state outside of CA.
Typically, we only have 1000-2000 emloyees working in the BA. for these large company. Far many more are outside of the region. Those are the realities.
It mattered for everyone I knew. Of all the people I worked with during the years we lived there, the only ones who stayed were those who couldn't go anywhere else because they had poor skills or grew up there.
It damn sure does matter. I was THERE. My politics are a better fit for Texas than California as I'm sure you've figured out by now but we were so sick so often than it didn't matter what kind of house we had. We lived in 2800 sq ft, solid brick, pool/spa in one of the nicest neighborhoods in Plano. The guy next door was a manufacturer's rep and the guy in back was a retired SVP of HR for Travelers Insurance and later Citibank. Anyone who made over $100K yearly salary and needed to be gotten rid of ended up being fired by him. He was a traveling HR manager and scalp hunter. You should have seen the inside of that guy's house. He must have made a ton of money over the years. He bought a new Cadillac and Corvette every three years. That right there told me he came from finance.
It mattered for everyone I knew.
AMD had a several thousand located in California back in late 80s. Today, around 700.. the rest 10,000+ of the headcount is in Austin and other parts of the globe. Symantec has under 1500 in SFBA, while the rest of the 17,000 is outside. For many outside of CA there isnt any issues. They are all too glad to have SV Tech jobs and live in much lower cost regions.
SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)--Apple Inc. (AAPL) plans to build a $304 million campus in Austin, Texas, doubling its presence there over the next decade.
The Cupertino, Calif., company said it will add 3,600 jobs in the next 10 years to its existing work force of 3,500 employees there. Apple said the move is part of a rapid expansion from 1,000 employees in 2004.
If we only had in the SFBA home prices same or somewhat close to Texas home prices, and a favorable business enviroment, oh the jobs we could grow in the Bay Area. Just think about it...heck even cheap homes in Modesto sounds good about now...
Anyone want to discuss "Fortress" prices, the weather, the eco system, which will feed home prices and keep your jobs here.... keep praying!
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Little have been said about the improving job situation.
The commerce department reported about 243K new jobs created in January 2012, notwithstanding government layoffs. Furthermnore, unemployment claims appears to be at the lowest level since the great recession.
These indicators are the most positive they have been for at least 4+ years. (Note that I am not saying the job situation is good, but it is obvious things are developing for the better) It appears the econoomy is turning the corner and finally lead by jobs and ultimately consumer confidence which will surely lead to housing price turnaround.
The next follow-up leading indicator will be consumer confidence which I predict will be up.
Last year around this time, gasoline price, Japan earthquake and Greece pretty much killed the positive momentum. Am really hoping that gas doesn't slow things down again. 2012 may be the best yet.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/unemployment-83-january-2012-243000-jobs-really
#housing