patrick.net

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/527-Whiting-Woods-Rd-Glendale-CA-91208/20821017_zpid/

Hrere's some interesting price histories. My old man poured the slab for this house when I was a squirt.

JodyChunder says

Hrere's some interesting price histories

Wow...

Price History
07/13/2005 Sold $1,220,000 43.5% $718 Public Record
05/21/2003 Sold $850,000 58.9% $500 Public Record
02/16/2001 Sold $535,000 -- $315 Public Record

thomas.wong1986 says

We were the first to see the boom in prices, along with the Boston region, well known for its share in the tech boom of the late 90s. So we will be the last to feel the ultimate pinch...

That's what lots of people are hoping for. I used to hope for it, but I find that too agonizing since anyone & everyone that makes money on RE is fighting it. At this point I'll take stagnant/slowly declining prices since that is still far more attractive than rampant debt-fueled appreciation.

If it does happen, you won't hear any complaints from me, though.

thomas.wong1986 says

JodyChunder says

Hrere's some interesting price histories

Wow...

Price History

07/13/2005 Sold $1,220,000 43.5% $718 Public Record

05/21/2003 Sold $850,000 58.9% $500 Public Record

02/16/2001 Sold $535,000 -- $315 Public Record

Amazing how each transaction was a "good time to buy and a good time to sell". Simply amazing. It must be one of them problems that use imaginary numbers that you can't see unless you square everything, cause it was definitely a dumbass more to sell in 2001 and then a double dumbass move to buy in 2005. Greedy pigs, and now our tax money is used to bail out the idiots. Pisses me off.

wthrfrk80 says

So if California is Greece, does that make Texas our equivalent of Germany?

Maybe one of the better looking lepers in the colony, but I wouldn't be so bullish on Texas. Way too much herd mentality chasing the TX Miracle these days.

thomas.wong1986 says

Actually the headcount has shrunk in Silicon valley and most SV Company jobs are outside the region. It far more typical to see 1000-2000 jobs in SV for companies that have overall employee count well above 50K or 100K. They are not all here!

I can certainly understand why!

JodyChunder says

Maybe one of the better looking lepers in the colony, but I wouldn't be so bullish on Texas. Way too much herd mentality chasing the TX Miracle these days.

Probably true. As they say, the counter-cyclical crowd is always in demand.

rootvg says

I agree with you but if you're going to stick with that, you need to relocate. Close in areas that are within commuting distance of either SF or SJ will never be in that range. Yes, there's Brentwood, Antioch and Oakley. We looked out there and decided against it. They aren't safe.

Of course there are. In fact, a 3 bedroom older house not far from us went for 365k. Another is pending for 425k. A pretty nice house not far from us is 500k. And so on. This is in a safe, walkable, fairly well-to-do east bay neighborhood that we rent in and commute to our jobs in SV from. All told takes us 30 minutes each way.

Then again.. shhhhh... All of you tech workers HAVE to live either in SF or on the Peninsula. Otherwise you'll be doomed like us to a Looooooonnnnggg commute! doomed!~

thomas.wong1986 says

Only 1 our of 3 can truly call themself a Californian (born here) ... many today came the east coast.

That's pretty much true. I'd say the breakdown is as follows in regards to where people are from who live in Cali these days.

In order of percentage:

1: Midwest. Ohio, Michigan, and so on
2: East Coast and in particular NJ, NY, and MA

Its a rarity that I actually ever run into another Southerner like myself out here. We're probably at the bottom of that list.

We looked at Brentwood and almost bought there. As soon as I saw the neighbors with great big dogs and then checked out the crime statistics and talked to the police department, we changed our mind. You should see what happens to Bay Point BART after dark. It's not a place I want my wife waiting for a train at five in the morning.

Configured as we are, we can afford the deal I got in Danville. Yes, I know it's a one off. Yes, I know I got lucky. We waited for that "special one" and it came along.

There are plenty of Bay Area cities that are affordable and within striking distance of the work centers.JodyChunder says

Maybe one of the better looking lepers in the colony, but I wouldn't be so bullish on Texas. Way too much herd mentality chasing the TX Miracle these days.

I don't think that the whole "Texas" thing is overblown. Its not just TX. Its that entire region. I know because my folks are in NC and there has been a lot of growth there too along with a lot in the neighboring states.

The reason is that a person who has what most in the Bay Area would consider a working class or lower middle class job can do reasonably well there. A school teacher, carpenter, secretary, or any number of other similar type jobs in the Bay Area means you're going to rent for life. In NC, TX, GA, AL etc etc you can buy a decent house in a decent neighborhood and live about the same as someone who makes 150k in the Bay Area. The East and West coasts are basically slowly emptying out their middle class populations to these areas- like TX as a result.

edvard2 says

The reason is that a person who has what most in the Bay Area would consider a working class or lower middle class job can do reasonably well there. A school teacher, carpenter, secretary, or any number of other similar type jobs in the Bay Area means you're going to rent for life. In NC, TX, GA, AL etc etc you can buy a decent house in a decent neighborhood and live about the same as someone who makes 150k in the Bay Area. The East and West coasts are basically slowly emptying out their middle class populations to these areas- like TX as a result.

Yep. Average people can actually do ok there, unlike in much of California.

rootvg says

You apparently don't retain what you read. I told you where it was, what it was, what we paid for it, the conditions under which we bought it and what the houses around it are selling for.

Why are you so bitter?

Sounds like you got a great deal. Danville is an awesome place to live. Unfortunately, there are some folks here who can't appreciate that it still makes reasonable sense for some people to buy, even though prices aren't at their absolute bottom.

Good luck to you!

gregpfielding says

rootvg says

You apparently don't retain what you read. I told you where it was, what it was, what we paid for it, the conditions under which we bought it and what the houses around it are selling for.

Why are you so bitter?

Sounds like you got a great deal. Danville is an awesome place to live. Unfortunately, there are some folks here who can't appreciate that it still makes reasonable sense for some people to buy, even though prices aren't at their absolute bottom.

Good luck to you!

East Bay Real Estate Agent and Blogger

Some of these folks are just really nasty people.

What I would tell them is, if there's one there's more.

The prices here are never going to be like Brentwood. That's just how it is but having said that, demographic patterns and the law of averages suggest that deals WILL be there. You just have to be ready.

We don't buy anything blind. Our cars came from Craigslist. Our clothes come from either sales at the Dillard's in Stockton or from when we go back to Ohio where prices (and sales tax) are much lower.

Thanks!

Realtors Are Liars says

Really? REALLY? Prices are falling.

The Fed won't allow prices to fall too much, at least in nominal terms. Too many big banks' asses are on the line.

Nontheless it's insane to pay a half a million for a shitty little house in a bad neighborhood. Even if the weather is nice.

wthrfrk80 says

Realtors Are Liars says

Really? REALLY? Prices are falling.

The Fed won't allow prices to fall too much, at least in nominal terms. Too many big banks' asses are on the line.

Nontheless it's insane to pay a half a million for a shitty little house in a bad neighborhood. Even if the weather is nice.

True, and that's precisely why I didn't buy in Brentwood, Antioch or Oakley.

The children of the guy who built "our" house (funds today, possession Friday) all live in the neighborhood and stopped in when we were there yesterday to let us know there's already mail in our box.

I think we're gonna be real happy there.

rootvg says

Close in areas that are within commuting distance of either SF or SJ will never be in that range. Yes, there's Brentwood, Antioch and Oakley. We looked out there and decided against it. They aren't safe.

This is such BS. Nice parts of West Contra Costa and many parts of Alameda County are an easy commute to SF and a lovely place to live, and you cn now find decent homes in nice neighborhoods with lovely neighbors in the 200-500k range.

Tude says

200-500k range.

Big range!

FunTime says

Tude says

200-500k range.

Big range!

(sarcastic on)
The range is really 10% (or less) of that number for most buyers, so 10K-50K. Doesn't seem that big anymore. Why in the would one look at the full number when the monthly payment is much nicer.
(sarcastic off)

rootvg says

I think we're gonna be real happy there.

Danville rocks. Welcome!

Realtors Are Liars says

Housing prices are falling.

Housing prices are inflated.

Realtors Are Liars.

You sound like a broken record! Can't you be happy?

gregpfielding says

rootvg says

I think we're gonna be real happy there.

Danville rocks. Welcome!

East Bay Real Estate Agent and Blogger

Thanks! We are looking forward to living there!

sheltielover1 says

gregpfielding says

rootvg says

I think we're gonna be real happy there.

Danville rocks. Welcome!

East Bay Real Estate Agent and Blogger

Thanks! We are looking forward to living there!

You could have lived there much cheaper by renting. I think what you meant to say is you are happy to go into debt a considerable sum of money for a place that the bank owns (it holds title) while you rent it back from them. Then if all things go well you can chip away at the debt and reduce it all the while hoping that the house value is preserved or grows. It is called middle class gambling in the BA. You might win but you could also lose. Just know the game you are playing. ;)

Owning doesn't make you a better citizen. A bigger part of Danville's society, or anything like that. It just means you are gambling a bit on housing while gaining some pluses that come from thinking the asset is yours.

Maybe I am wrong but when people tell me they own, I make the assumption they own the title. Just like when people say they built their own house. I envision them hammering and lifting wood. I have come to realize that these two things mean nothing of the sort here in the BA.

Own = I own debt, bank owns the title
Built my own = I paid someone to build, while I watched and complained
:)

Here is your neighbor in Danville. Who said millionaires don't go underwater. 2million dollar property up on the chopping block right now. Bid if you want a piece of housing bust history! "Don't disturb occupant". Good for them high rollers. Live in it until the last day. Suck up the million dollar lifestyle even though you lied about your income and never paid a cent down at closing. Ahh the life. So just.

http://www.auction.com/California/residential-auction-asset/1298527-2094-328-Montoya-Way-DANVILLE-CA-94526-1C.html-Z026-1C

RentingForHalfTheCost says

FunTime says

Tude says

200-500k range.

Big range!

(sarcastic on)

The range is really 10% (or less) of that number for most buyers, so 10K-50K. Doesn't seem that big anymore. Why in the would one look at the full number when the monthly payment is much nicer.

(sarcastic off)

We've been here for four years, each year paying increased utility costs because the house we were in had a water leak the landlord couldn't find and the floor/attic were so poorly insulated that out monthly gas/electric bills were at least twice as high as they needed to be.

If that weren't enough, we're getting a HUGE tax bill every Spring because we had no deductions. As our income has gone up, the tax bills get worse.

I talked to my boss this morning and he's a Bachelor in Computer Science in addition to being a business, accounting and tax guy from way back. His kids in Washington state just recently each got their own places, he does their taxes and said yeah...it makes sense if you're buying the right house, have good credit and aren't buried in debt. Seattle doesn't cost what it costs in the Bay Area but it's close.

We talked to our tax guy in West Covina and he said, yeah...because of what we bought and why we bought and how we bought and the rate? Absolutely. Pull the trigger, and we did. We're already paying as much as we would to own so what's the difference? He also knew what we were paying in taxes.

My wife and I are almost at three hundred grand gross income. When my bonus comes in this Spring, we may be there because the company I work for has had a good year. My wife's been getting increased responsibility the last two years or so and when you're in the public sector, that means you're gonna get a bump. We HAD to do something.

Even with the added debt, our ratios are still below that of most people. We own our cars. We have no high interest, chronically parasitic credit card debt. If anyone can do this, we can and we should and we did.

Finally, we're from a part of the country where people don't have very much. It's been a tough fifteen years for us but even so we're not collectively angry at the world. Why are you?

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Here is your neighbor in Danville. Who said millionaires don't go underwater. 2million dollar property up on the chopping block right now. Bid if you want a piece of housing bust history! "Don't disturb occupant". Good for them high rollers. Live in it until the last day. Suck up the million dollar lifestyle even though you lied about your income and never paid a cent down at closing. Ahh the life. So just.

http://www.auction.com/California/residential-auction-asset/1298527-2094-328-Montoya-Way-DANVILLE-CA-94526-1C.html-Z026-1C

RentingForHalfTheCost, right?

We were renting for MORE, with the taxes and utilities included.

That's why we did this. We didn't fall off the turnip truck yesterday.

rootvg says

Finally, we're from a part of the country where people don't have very much. It's been a tough fifteen years for us but even so we're not collectively angry at the world. Why are you?

I'm not angry at the world. Just angry at the organization that are running this country into the ground. So far 40 cents of every dollar goes towards paying the interest on the debt. Now, instead of letting the real estate market find its own stable point, they keep manipulating it. It forces good people like you to have to go deep into debt just to hack out a decent life. If they weren't so silly with the home ownership policies for the past 50 years (more in the last 15) then this country really would be the ideal place to live. That is where my anger goes. The vast majority of people deserve better than we are being provided. The current housing industry is like pony races in Ireland. The source of all kinds of corruption and misleading intentions. We are just the pawns they use to run around blindly.

I hope you enjoy your house and can weather the years of price damage if it comes. At 300k income you guys are way above the norm. You could buy magic bean from the street kid everyday and still be setup financially in the end. Don't take advice from this forum. Put your energy into what makes you 300k/yr and read a good book. That is my advice. The rest of us less than 300kers will try to time the shit our of this market to eek out a 300k lifestyle. ;)

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Here is your neighbor in Danville. Who said millionaires don't go underwater. 2million dollar property up on the chopping block right now. Bid if you want a piece of housing bust history! "Don't disturb occupant". Good for them high rollers. Live in it until the last day. Suck up the million dollar lifestyle even though you lied about your income and never paid a cent down at closing. Ahh the life. So just.

http://www.auction.com/California/residential-auction-asset/1298527-2094-328-Montoya-Way-DANVILLE-CA-94526-1C.html-Z026-1C

I hear you loud and clear but even so, I'm not as dumb as I look.

Before this all started, we were renting...and the lady who represented us to the landlord also (surprise, surprise) has a real estate license and has sold in Danville and San Ramon for decades. Her ex was an Oakland cop (that's why he's an ex) and she was credentialed as a schoolteacher from her upbringing in West Virginia before deciding she didn't want to be poor for the rest of her life. She told me in that even in 1971--forty plus years ago when I was in kindergarten and probably ten percent of Danville was either in college or fighting in Vietnam--that Danville, Alamo and Walnut Creek to a lesser extent were expensive. She and her husband could not do Danville or Alamo even then and ended up in what became San Ramon where she lives to this day. They were always addresses that people aspired to.

So, because we were apparently at the right place at the right time with the right amount down and the right rate, we bought a house there for at least $100K less than anything else could be bought for in the neighborhood.

Let me be clear: We should NOT have been able to do this! This should not have happened but the stars lined up (somebody liked us) and it made sense and the only people telling us not to are posting in this forum and most of them have a serious weed up their ass...so what the hell? We did it for the same as we would pay in rent. A year from now, we'll refinance and get rid of the PMI. Then it'll be cheaper than rent!

Why the fuck would I not do this?

rootvg says

Pull the trigger

A friend of mine and I find the phrases for deciding to buy a house funny. "Jump in" "Dive in" "Pull the trigger" "Bite the bullet" "Park your money"

Not very encouraging.

rootvg says

So, because we were apparently at the right place at the right time

Wow, that's either an amazing sales job or an amazing story. Have you seen the scene in Glengarry Glen Ross where Al Pacino 'Ricky Roma' sells the guy in the bar?

Either way, sounds like you've found a nice place to live, you love it and have a large income to fend off uncertainties.

We don't need "encouragement".

We are not angry at the world. Over and over I've told you that.

We are not governed by emotion. That's why we don't buy new cars...because that's generally how they're sold.

We are not angry at people who want to make money or have money. We are not emotionally reflexive personalities or "silly people" or like so many of the mentally unbalanced folks this state (especially this part of the state) seems to attract.

I wonder how many of you Bay Area types would survive having to work and live in suburban NE Ohio where my wife and I are from...where people white and blue collar alike wake up, brush four to six inches of snow off their car and drive to work at a job paying probably no more than $50K per year with no job security even for those with college degrees. Oh, and by the way...they make it really hard to get that degree if you go to a state university because Ohio rations public education. Forty percent of the state budget goes to fund medical care for the large indigent elderly population. Ohio's upper and upper middle class retire to Arizona, Florida and North Carolina while those left behind have to pay for taking care of the half blind retired autoworker with diabetes (and his wife) who made good money but never saved because he had a shitty life and spent every dime he earned.

You guys don't have a clue.

FunTime says

rootvg says

So, because we were apparently at the right place at the right time

Wow, that's either an amazing sales job or an amazing story. Have you seen the scene in Glengarry Glen Ross where Al Pacino 'Ricky Roma' sells the guy in the bar?

Either way, sounds like you've found a nice place to live, you love it and have a large income to fend off uncertainties.

It actually happened that way, over the past month.

Your post would indicate that you're another one of these what I would call "silly people" or unserious personalities we see so many of here. Your opinion is so far from my consideration that I almost can't express it in words.

rootvg says

you're another one of these what I would call "silly people" or unserious personalities we see so many of here

I'm quite serious and I've worked in sales. You did consider my opinion.

Your story of your purchase illustrated a salesperson who made quite personal connections and got the sale. This can happen quite naturally and it can also be learned and practiced with the intent of successful selling.

rootvg says

You guys don't have a clue.

I actually did grow up much like you described in your writing, only I didn't make nearly that much money and statistics suggest I grew up much poorer than you. My teenaged mother was a waitress at Pizza Hut when I was born. Then we moved to a rural area where she worked at a truck stop. That was in Colorado at a very high elevation where it gets very cold.

edvard2 says

don't think that the whole "Texas" thing is overblown.

Well, I think most disgruntled Californians would agree with you.

Its not just TX. Its that entire region. I know because my folks are in NC and there has been a lot of growth there too along with a lot in the neighboring states.

Then we oughta be hearing about the Louisiana miracle or the Georgia miracle or the Ohio miracle or the Florida miracle, etc. Actually, Florida has one of the least onerous property and sales tax rates of all and no state tax -- not to mention two coast lines, mild winters and a day trip to Cuba once that whole embargo thingee is over with, which I think we will see in my lifetime. It's marred by all the Ohioans that move there, but otherwise, it's a nice little swamp. I love the South and NC in particular. I used to fish on the Cape Fear river every spring when I was a boy visiting my grands.

The reason is that a person who has what most in the Bay Area would consider a working class or lower middle class job can do reasonably well there.

Texas is big, so it depends on what part of TX you are in. All of Texas has onerous tax rates, which are set to go up this year. Utility rates are also set to spike this year and you will use a lot of utilities in just about any part of Texas during the summer months. These two factors really impact the demographic you describe above. I got a couple of buddies in Texas who hold special annual events where the proceeds go to help geezers on fixed incomes pay for their property taxes. The attitude among the young professionals pouring in from California is that these old-timers are hoarding these houses and should just move on already.

Dallas is a nice city, but too artsy fartsy for me. Austin is trying like hell to be Dallas these days, so that's no good. Houston is just too muggy and full of crime. Amarillo is cattle country and smells it. The entire state is pretty ugly. if you've driven around it, you already know that. Even the W Texas desert is by far less interesting than our Mojave.

A school teacher, carpenter, secretary, or any number of other similar type jobs in the Bay Area means you're going to rent for life. In NC, TX, GA, AL etc etc you can buy a decent house in a decent neighborhood and live about the same as someone who makes 150k in the Bay Area.

Honestly, I don't think it'd be that dramatic. Besides, this is the same mentality that rich foreigners have when moving to the Bay Area to overpay for a lifestyle out of reach of most working Bay Areans. How is that dynamic sustainable anywhere? Another thing to consider is that it isn't primarily school teachers and carpenters that are flocking to Texas, it's folks who transfer from their jobs in other states in most cases.

The East and West coasts are basically slowly emptying out their middle class populations to these areas- like TX as a result.

Where are they going to go when Texas becomes just as expensive as California, because that's the general trajectory over the long haul. If you can think a few moves ahead and figure on where that third hop might be and setup shop there, then maybe you're onto something. My personal guess is Florida. California, though, will remain peerless in many regards. It's just a beautiful chunk of country.

rootvg says

we'll refinance and get rid of the PMI

Snicker, laugh. You have PMI.

rootvg says

Why the fuck would I not do this?

Lol, you dont even think about the carrying costs.

Electric, cable, phone, schools, parcel taxes, gas, medical, cell, water,
sewer, tax, garbage, car insurance, house insurance, repairs, paint, heating, running fans, internet service.

Your topline monthly is nothing compared to the carrying costs of RE. I hope you did some math. Rent stinks, but from what I've seen, its about half the equivalent outlays in most places worth living.

And if you are unemployed, the deductions dont do much for you.

rootvg says

They were always addresses that people aspired to.

Yeah, like when Gore Vidal aspired to this address in the Hollywood Hills he purchased in the seventies for a little over 200K.

http://www.christophechoo.com/gore-vidals-hollywood-hills-home-for-sale-for-3495000-los-angeles-platinum-triangle-beverly-hills-bel-air-holmby-hills-sunset-strip-hollywood-hills-luxury-estates-celebrity-homes-homes-for-sale/

There's another reason for considering to buy a house these days (if the price is right). Think "hedge for inflation", The official inflation numbers for the last year were ~3%. From where I look gas, food, health care, education, all went up ~10%. The FED is willing to "print" as much as it takes. Will they be able to inflate, or we'll get deflation? It's everyone's guess. But one should be positioned to survive both scenarios.