patrick.net

Sales are flying off the shelves. We have to discount at 40% off retail, but still they are flying! Products are moving fast, better come in a get yours before they are all gone.

Meanwhile there is a traffic jam at the back of the store because 20 rigs full of goods are all trying to unload at one dock. They only open the dock once a day for 10 minutes also. They wouldn't dare want to flood the shelves and let everyone know the real state of the inventory.

Oh, but wait. Now is the best time to buy one of these shinny huts. Never been a better time. Well, there were better times in the past I guess, and chances are there are better times in the future. But just focusing on the now that is now. Not the now that happened already, or the now that is later. The now now is the perfect time to buy. Wait, I mean now is the perfect time. Crap I can't type fast enough. NOW! NOW! NOW! I can't do it. My head will explode.

I think it's bullsh*t. Even Redfin had the decency today to give some...semi real news:

December Numbers Finally Came In. They're Bad
Yikes, the numbers just out for December 2011 show another 1.1% price drop:

Market MoM Price Change YoY Price Change Date of Max Price Change from Max Price Prices Last at
This Level # of Months
of Decrease
Phoenix 0.8% -1.2% Jun-06 -55.2% Mar-00 0
LA -1.1% -5.2% Sep-06 -40.8% Aug-03 5
San Diego -0.7% -5.4% Nov-05 -39.9% Sep-02 5
Bay Area -0.8% -5.4% May-06 -41.1% Dec-00 5
Denver -0.9% -0.4% Aug-06 -11.9% Apr-02 4
DC Area -1.2% -1.6% May-06 -28.4% Apr-04 3
Atlanta -1.8% -12.8% Jul-07 -36.0% Dec-97 5
Chicago -2.0% -6.5% Sep-06 -34.6% Mar-01 4
Boston -1.2% -2.6% Sep-05 -18.6% Feb-03 5
Las Vegas -0.8% -8.8% Aug-06 -61.4% Jan-97 6
New York -1.2% -2.9% Jun-06 -24.4% Dec-03 4
Portland -0.4% -4.0% Jul-07 -28.8% Sep-04 3
Dallas -0.7% -1.3% Jun-07 -10.5% Apr-02 4
Seattle -1.3% -5.6% Jul-07 -31.9% May-04 5
20 City Index -1.1% -4.0% Jul-06 -33.8% Feb-03 4

Well, all anyone ever talks about on this site seems to be the extremely narrow confines of very specific, highly exclusive neighborhoods in Silicon Valley or San Francisco. So if that's all you're interested in, then yeah- I'd suppose you would think that the entire Bay Area is goin' up or doing better than it really is.

Median's are not that useful, especially over such a short time period as 1 month. I wish they would break out single family homes from condo's/townhouses.

If you look at the bay area for 2011 as a whole, at least you can see prices rose some in the cities with the best schools, and fell in the cities with mediocre to poor schools.

http://dqnews.com/Charts/Annual-Charts/SF-Chronicle-Charts/ZIPSFC11.aspx

bgamall4 says

SF is up, from 589k to 624k. Remember Patrick I said that when that strange guy was saying it was a lie that any real estate in the bay area was going up? Marin is up even more.

Oh well. As mentioned, the only places going up are very specific areas of the Bay Area. Luckily places I wouldn't want to live anyway. In the East Bay prices are still lagging.

bgamall4 says

It's funny how the title is "Bay Area February Home Sales at Five-year High" instead of "SF Bay Area price fell from $500K in 2006 to $325K in 2012".

SF is up, from 589k to 624k. Remember Patrick I said that when that strange guy was saying it was a lie that any real estate in the bay area was going up? Marin is up even more.

Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com

Good to see hope still is alive and kicking. SF will be the new Stockton when the banks back up the trucks of foreclosures. It is a com'in. You can bet the farm on it.

bgamall4 says

Chinese are buying

Well, you are from Reno, closer than most, and I'm sure there are some foreign buyers. This article was from yesterday. I don't think the Chinese can save the Zombie Banks:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-500395_162-57399904/china-slowdown-could-spur-global-recession/

bgamall4 says

Chinese are buying

So the Chinese are buying up BA,LV,Canada,and the list goes on and on. Just let us know where are they NOT buying?

It is interesting to see how much of the big money is coming from outside the U.S. to buy RE.

everything says

It is interesting to see how much of the big money is coming from outside the U.S. to buy RE

Yep. Just go to The Fortress and see for yourself.

everything says

It is interesting to see how much of the big money is coming from outside the U.S. to buy RE.

when they go belly up, they wont be able to take it with them..

bgamall4 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

SF will be the new Stockton when the banks back up the trucks of foreclosures.

I doubt it. Even in Las Vegas the Chinese are buying and offering lower rents than the locals can offer. So, if Las Vegas is prospering, SF will soar. Now, no one has a crystal ball down the road, because I agree that inventory could become an issue. But if it is inventory away from the revered areas, it shouldn't matter too much.

Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com

It is like a marching wall of soldiers just inching every closer and closer to the heart of the BA. I'll post this heat map again in about 3 months and we will see what happens to it. My guess, All RED!

bubblesitter says

bgamall4 says

Chinese are buying

So the Chinese are buying up BA,LV,Canada,and the list goes on and on. Just let us know where are they NOT buying?

They are not buying in China. Pretty soon even the Asian party will be over. Then who will save us? The Mexicans? The Canadians? Russians? Hmmm. Nope, we will be left with our own crap to clean up. Screwed!!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-14/chinese-economy-already-in-hard-landing-jpmorgan-says.html

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2011/12/housing_credit_bubbles_popping_in_china.html

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Then who will save us? The Mexicans? The Canadians? Russians? Hmmm.

New Yorkers. When you hear that from the media, the vested interested played their last card and prices will be close to bottom.

bgamall4 says

Wall Street is betting on the housing recovery.

Im still waiting for the $4 Trillion B2B to explode on the world...
That would make Ariba worth some $55B once again...

They are NOT ususally right... many times over!

bgamall4 says

The Chinese buy because theyhave to lease in China.

Fuck the Chinese!

bgamall4 says

Just today a story that indeed, Wall Street is betting on the housing recovery. They are usually right. It is coming, with no money down, maybe sooner than we think.

They are right because money is printed to make them right.

$5+ gas. Food prices skyrocketing. Cost of doing business here is outrageous. Sure things will possibly "go up", but not anyone's standard of living will - mine is dropping by the day.

Helloeeze says

I will admit, it's a strange market when 32% are cash purchases. I can't imagine $324 being the average price. Maybe for a condo or a small home in a poverty area.

$324K would be the eqivalent of typical middle class tech employee SFH home from the mid 90s prices adjusted for inflation today. If its a condo or a small home in low income area, than its really way overpriced today.

http://archive.dqnews.com/AA1996BAY10.shtm

jeffrey lebowski middle class.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

It is like a marching wall of soldiers just inching every closer and closer to the heart of the BA. I'll post this heat map again in about 3 months and we will see what happens to it. My guess, All RED!

What website did you find this graphic?

bgamall4 says

The Chinese buy because theyhave to lease in China. I think this demand will continue for years.

It seems like you are totally clueless about 1) housing market and 2) the Chinese. I'd suggest you make a trip or two to Asia before commenting BS.

anonanon says

What website did you find this graphic?

www.hotpads.com

bubblesitter says

It seems like you are totally clueless about 1) housing market and 2) the Chinese. I'd suggest you make a trip or two to Asia before commenting BS.

Agreed. Honestly, I don't see why all that many Chinese folks would be attracted to the Bay Area, other than to send their kids to schools here. San Francisco is a boring, dumpy hole with nothing vibrant or fun about it compared to Hong Kong, Shanghai & heck, even Shenzhen. Anyone that hasn't been there won't get it. If I lived in a real metro-area of China, the Bay Area would be a dull, barely-developed splatter of concrete & dirt that bored the hell out of me because there is nothing to do.

The lack of pollution here is nice, for sure, but public transit is expensive and sucks ass, food is way more expensive and you would basically have to do all of your driving and house upkeep yourself since drivers & live-in maids are not cheap & readily available here. If I had money, I could live like royalty in China, or be un-remarkably upper-middle class here. Yeah, tough call there.

With that said though, there are still a relatively large number of wealthy Chinese buying stuff here either as investments, or to send their kids to school. I say "relative" as a comparison of the number of Chinese buyers and the (low) available inventory in nice areas. With China's massive population, it only takes a very small percentage of wealthy individuals there to have a noticeable impact here.

anonanon says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

It is like a marching wall of soldiers just inching every closer and closer to the heart of the BA. I'll post this heat map again in about 3 months and we will see what happens to it. My guess, All RED!

What website did you find this graphic?

www.hotpads.com

bgamall4 says

thomas.wong1986 says

New Yorkers. When you hear that from the media, the vested interested played their last card and prices will be close to bottom.

Just today a story that indeed, Wall Street is betting on the housing recovery. They are usually right. It is coming, with no money down, maybe sooner than we think.

Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com

Wall street are usually right?? What a F&*ing joke. You are insane if you think that. Were they right about Lehmans? About Long Term Capital? About Enron? Get a grip. Wall street are a bunch of money greedy slugs. I went to school with a lot of friends that are now on wall street. All they talk about is money. That makes them dumb when it comes to housing. Housing is emotional, it makes no sense. Momentum up feeds up and momentum down feeds down. There really is little value in the asset. Most of the value is in the perception you can sell it to another fool for the same or more. You have to drink the kool-aid so you can forget that little fact.

ra says

jeffrey lebowski middle class.

With barely enough money left over for a nice rug that really ties the room together.

Also funny how it doesn't mention that there's an extra day to sell property this year being leap year and 29 days.

bmwman91 says

Anyone that hasn't been there won't get it.

Must be the Tacos in the Bay Area that attract them...

Anyway, Australia makes more sense, since you can spend your winters in a summer 'down under' and transportation is much easier. Yes, you can actually swim in the Ozy coastal waters.
p>

thomas.wong1986 says

Must be the Tacos in the Bay Area that attract them...

Anyway, Australia makes more sense, since you can spend your winters in a summer 'down under' and transportation is much easier. Yes, you can actually swim in the Ozy coastal waters.
p>

Sure you can swim the coastal waters in Oz. But you really have to pay attention to the little but deadly Irukanji jellyfish and the sharks.

:-)

simchaland says

little but deadly Irukanji jellyfish and the sharks.

thats why they put up nets for the swimmers.

, Sushi .. oz talk for Shark.

bgamall4 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Wall street are usually right??

In the beginning they are usually right. They follow the hot money and the big money. Many are crooks and insiders but that argument is for another day.

Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com

My prediction is they will sounds just like Buffet from last year. "I was dead wrong" when he talked about his prediction of a bottom. I give just about the same amount of credit to Wall Street as I do to the magazines in the checkout isle. Their job is not too different than Realtors. Pump pump pump. My little bit of due diligence in my investing has made me beat the indexes every year of my investing life so far. We give them too much credit.

bgamall4 says

bubblesitter says

It seems like you are totally clueless about 1) housing market and 2) the Chinese. I'd suggest you make a trip or two to Asia before commenting BS.

Sorry, you only have to have a very small percentage of Chinese that can do this and it amounts to a lot of people. Since you are long on insults and short on facts why don't you give us some facts?

Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com

you made the claim. you provide the facts.

oh that's right you have no facts.

bgamall4 says

Eating into your profits???

I have no profits no gains or losses at risk ! my investments are in stock, bonds, mutual funds.

The chinese are not exempt for paying annual US property and Income taxes (Fed and State).. fact is they better be timely else the penalties and fines kick in.. I bet not many have figured that one out yet.

Well, maybe those Chinese investors from China will dry up, due to the possible coup attempt.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/21/inside-the-ring-436080940/

There goes the neighborhood!

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20120322000063&cid=1101

...Microblogging accounts of citizens based in Beijing claim to have seen dozens of military helicopters from Nanyuan airfield patrolling the skies above the capital, as well as PLA tanks on the streets. One netizen reported encountering 50 to 60 police officers and anti-riot vehicles near the Dongzhimen area of the city as well as a convoy of trucks carrying PLA soldiers. A video was uploaded to Sina Weibo showing the army transferring artillery from Shandong province to Beijing by train. Though the reports are still unconfirmed, some netizens claimed that they heard gunfire on the streets of Beijing on Monday evening....

RentingForHalfTheCost says

anonanon says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

It is like a marching wall of soldiers just inching every closer and closer to the heart of the BA. I'll post this heat map again in about 3 months and we will see what happens to it. My guess, All RED!

What website did you find this graphic?

www.hotpads.com

You should compare rents to owning on hotpads.... I found most rentals on hotpads are much higher than a comparable mortgage.

BoomAndBustCycle says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

anonanon says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

It is like a marching wall of soldiers just inching every closer and closer to the heart of the BA. I'll post this heat map again in about 3 months and we will see what happens to it. My guess, All RED!

What website did you find this graphic?

www.hotpads.com

You should compare rents to owning on hotpads.... I found most rentals on hotpads are much higher than a comparable mortgage.

Pretty sure he's referring to desirable areas like the BA.

BoomAndBustCycle says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

anonanon says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

It is like a marching wall of soldiers just inching every closer and closer to the heart of the BA. I'll post this heat map again in about 3 months and we will see what happens to it. My guess, All RED!

What website did you find this graphic?

www.hotpads.com

You should compare rents to owning on hotpads.... I found most rentals on hotpads are much higher than a comparable mortgage.

Yup, that is a great backup plan to move out of the BA.

bgamall4 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

We give them too much credit.

But only they know when the easy money like no money down will return. We don't unless we follow the lending behavior of the mortgage lenders after the fact.

Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com

In the words of Cramer, "They know nothing!"