patrick.net

bubblesitter says

clambo says

What's also interesting is that in Japan there was so little supply and yet prices still fall.

Exact same thing is gonna happen to USA. 2006 + 20 years.

Please refer to this chart: http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_pop_totl&idim=country:JPN&dl=en&hl=en&q=population+in+japan#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_pop_totl&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:JPN:USA&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

Population of Japan hardly changed for the last twenty years. It is likely that the population of USA would continue to grow. Hence it is not likely that RE in USA would behave similarly as Japan.

hanera says

Population of Japan hardly changed for the last twenty years. It is likely that the population of USA would continue to grow. Hence it is not likely that RE in USA would behave similarly as Japan.

Well, let the population increase as much as you want but those newly populated(local or foreign born) will not have enough money to buy the overpriced shacks - hence continued decline in high priced RE.

Population increase does not matter,if most of that increase is in the middle class. Middle class will be toast in America for quite some time.

bubblesitter says

hanera says

Population of Japan hardly changed for the last twenty years. It is likely that the population of USA would continue to grow. Hence it is not likely that RE in USA would behave similarly as Japan.

Well, let the population increase as much as you want but those newly populated(local or foreign born) will not have enough money to buy the overpriced shacks - hence continued decline in high priced RE.

Since you've already decided that would happen, I've nothing to add.

hanera says

Since you've already decided that would happen, I've nothing to add.

Hey, I don't decide, it is solid analysis. Think about it. There is a million $ shack sitting to be occupied and there are 10 middle class buyers thinking to occupy it and you throw in another 10 to make it total 20 buyers. All 20 or original 10 won't afford insanely price RE. I don't see all 20 to get big pay raises to get to that million $ shack any time soon,instead they will be hit by high cost of living,health care etc. - Middle class is really a toast in America.

Bubblesitter,

First thing first, I do agree with you that prices in SV is insanely high. Also agree with you that middle class would find it increasingly difficult to buy (may be even rent) a house in SF Bay Area (I assume we're talking about SFBA, I'm not familiar with other places). That doesn't mean that house prices would be declining. House prices are influenced by availability of jobs, housing loan conditions (DP, interest rate), quality of schools, crime rates and existing established neighborhood conditions.

RE: White guys & Asian women
I don't know why it is so prevalent here, to be honest. When I was younger, I SWORE that I'd never date an Asian woman because a) every white guy in the Bay Area does, and b) I figured they were all boring little subservient types (HAHA, yeah right) that cared about nothing other than fashion. I ragged on one of my buddies pretty bad when he was dating a Chinese girl back in like 2002.

Well, as karma would have it, I met my fiancee (HK/Chinese) in 2006 while I was an intern at Cisco Systems. It was a total coincidence as she was the other intern's friend from their days at UC Davis (she was visiting Cisco as a vendor and randomly went to lunch with my coworker, I tagged along...the rest is history). As far as I can tell, part of the reason for white guys + asian girls in the Silicon Valley is just the nature of high tech. There just aren't any white chicks in engineering! Well, even if there are, attractive ones are even fewer. From my experience, most of the ladies are Asian (Chinese) in technical fields around here. If you are going to meet a girl at work, and you are an engineer, then your options get sort of narrow.

I don't have any preference between white chicks & Asians. It just worked out that way...her & I clicked & the rest is history. She moved here in 1997 from HK (for obvious reasons) and went to HS & college in Davis. She got her citizenship a few years ago. I do have to say that she is a LOT more reasonable than a lot of white females that I knew & dated in college. Lots (not all) of American white chicks have this sort of "feminist entitlement" mentality where they think that they are supposed to own the man in the relationship, and that "maternal instincts" will always trump anything else (like common sense about borrowing $730k on 3.5% down "for the baby"). I think that that mentality leads to a lot of divorces, and it's been documented that women initiate the divorce 70% of the time, probably because they feel like they are not getting their way. People in general seem to have difficulty compromising & being reasonable, but I really do feel like women have become MORE unreasonable in the last 30 years, largely because society tells them that it is OK ("you are asserting your rights as a woman"). What ever happened to the 50/50 relationship?!

Anyway, I knew my lady was a keeper because we can both call each other on each other's BS, and we can both say, "I'm sorry I was wrong." I dated a lot of girls, and very few were capable of that (and neither was I when I was younger). Just as a funny aside, Planet Granite in Sunnyvale after 6PM is basically nothing but white guy / asian girl couples climbing. It must be the fact that white people are obsessed with the outdoors & related activities, and that Asian women are super competitive that seems to make that sport so attractive to them lol.

BTW, I can't wait for the PPP (pious peninsula progressives) to read my last post. The PC-police will have a field day with that one lol.

hanera says

House prices are influenced by availability of jobs, housing loan conditions (DP, interest rate), quality of schools, crime rates and existing established neighborhood conditions.

I am glad that you finally excluded increase in population as the factor. Now you can remove all of the others one by one. :)

bmwman91 says

I don't know why it is so prevalent here, to be honest. When I was younger, I SWORE that I'd never date an Asian woman because a) every white guy in the Bay Area does, and b) I figured they were all boring little subservient types (HAHA, yeah right) that cared about nothing other than fashion.

bmwman91 says

Lots (not all) of American white chicks have this sort of "feminist entitlement" mentality where they think that they are supposed to own the man in the relationship, and that "maternal instincts" will always trump

Bimmer, thank you for sharing. As you wrote, not all American women are like that. My partner is not like that. It's one of many reasons I refer to my partner as my partner, instead of using a different word. But, my American born American partner is an American born Asian. And that, besides that they are athletes, is why my kids are some of the best looking in California, and in the USA too.

bubblesitter says

hanera says

House prices are influenced by availability of jobs, housing loan conditions (DP, interest rate), quality of schools, crime rates and existing established neighborhood conditions.

I am glad that you finally excluded increase in population as the factor. Now you can remove all of the others one by one. :)

Frankly, I gave up talking to some of you guys. Twisted logic. Population is definitely one of the factor that affect housing prices.

hanera says

bubblesitter says

hanera says

House prices are influenced by availability of jobs, housing loan conditions (DP, interest rate), quality of schools, crime rates and existing established neighborhood conditions.

I am glad that you finally excluded increase in population as the factor. Now you can remove all of the others one by one. :)

Frankly, I gave up talking to some of you guys. Twisted logic. Population is definitely one of the factor that affect housing prices.

Well,now population comes back into picture? It is hard to sustain a discussion if you are flip flopping.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Bimmer, thank you for sharing. As you wrote, not all American women are like that. My partner is not like that. It's one of many reasons I refer to my partner as my partner, instead of using a different word. But, my American born American partner is an American born Asian. And that, besides that they are athletes, is why my kids are some of the best looking in California, and in the USA too.

Being able to say that you have a partner is a key thing. Glad it is working well for you. I think that the "partnership" aspect is lost in a lot of relationships. I ragged a bit on American women above but thinking a little more, I know about as many guys that are as selfish, just in different ways. Lots of people have a hard time accepting compromise.

And yeah, although I still don't know 100% how I feel about kids, IF we had them, they'd be good looking. Mixed ones almost always are. God help me if I have a daughter...the first time any of her boyfriends meet me, I'll be sitting on the porch cleaning my M1 Garand.

Bubblesitter has a point. The previous combination of both rising population (e.g. baby boom) combined with rising wages made houses rise in price along with inflation.
The situation looks to me a bit different today here. When I saw the boomers around, most got as much education as they could, and tried to make enough money to have houses, families, etc.
The population may be growing here but the people are not even all graduating high school. They cannot possibly ever achieve the median house of $500K+ unless the value of the dollar becomes so low that the wages inflate up even for crummy work.
And, the govt. jobs that were available to the uneducated unqualified is not increasing it's slowing down with the busted budgets of towns and the state also.

E-man says

BMW,

Maybe it's a cultural difference. It is my personal opinion that people who don't have kids are missing out. To me, I'd rather have more kids than more money. I'd give up my life for my kids. I can leave my wife, but I can't leave my kids. Any other questions? :)

Different strokes for different folks, I guess. I still have 3-5 years to figure out what I want with respect to kids. There are obvious reasons to and not to have them in my mind. I can see there being a pay-off later in life for sure. Dying alone seems like sort of a shitty fate lol. My god though, I don't know if I could handle the stress!

I am not sure that there is any cultural aspect to it. Her parents and mine nag us about it with about the same frequency. It seems like all cultures generally view child rearing as a top aspiration in life, since it is sort of necessary for a civilization to survive.

dunnross says

And, I suppose, Japan was also anomalous.

HK had a massive drop in 1997-1999 and then a steady Japan-like drop a few years after that. Japan's decline -- disregard the big mountain-like line, which is industrial land, because we're talking about housing here, and just look at the residential land line -- has actually been softer than HK's even in 1999-2003.

I don't see Japan ever rebounding like HK has. There are just too many old, hidebound, ultra-conservative seniors who want to suck the outnumbered younger generations dry and let the nation slip slowly into second-world status. If RE goes up significantly in Japan in the next 20 years, it'll be an illusion created by the inflation that the government is so desperate to ignite.

hanera says

Helloeeze says

... why do white guys marry Asian women so often?

And yet hardly any white gals marry Asian men?

Yes, because it's too small.

rootvg says

hanera says

Helloeeze says

... why do white guys marry Asian women so often?

And yet hardly any white gals marry Asian men?

Yes, because it's too small.

looks like we've found our resident asian penis expert.

That CNN article is hilarious. So many of those young Hipsters will be "new parents", or fail while trying, at the end of the woman's fertility.

Another crackup is to compare going to schoolager events on the side of town where Eman and I live to see the distribution of ages of parents; then go to a Hipster place like Willow Glen and have a look: you would think those are grandparents with kids in tow. It's not: its the Hipsters who "waited do the kid thing" till they almost couldn't "do the kid thing".

Black man has the largest.
I don't see White and Asian woman line up to marry them :)

rootvg,

If you want to generalize go ahead. Maybe it makes you feel bigger? Cause obviously insecurity is a main component of racism. size is not the issue. It's the constant stereotyping of Asian men in media. It's the william hung that gets all the media attention. It's like watching Samurai, and have all the japanese killed except the white savior Tom Cruise, who gets to take the Asian bride after killing her genetically inferior husband first. I lived her all my life and have been thoroughly subjugated to all the hate. And yes you do feel threatened by me. Cause i work harder, smarter, and I don't have your precious entitlement attitude. Yes I do get with all sorts of girls. And race is not an issue but every now and then I come across people like you that can't understand how the girls you want, like me better.

And when one undeniably talented Asian man is promoted in the media like a Jeremy lin. People like you are the first to be hating. Cause honestly root, u feel threatened by Asian men. cause we go to harvard, straight ball, are righteous, and humble. what a freaking surprise?? In this modern world, where the individual ego has destroyed everything good in this country. Too bad big penises can't save the housing market??

Contrary to the public stereotype, there are many Asian men that fit this description. Except we are well marginalized in society. Asian men are like precious metals. Institutions can manipulate our value. But when the SHTF, true price discovery will be reached. Cause we get it.

Im not saying all Asian men, but I've been to the gym and not all white dudes either. But unfortunately for me, it's all asian dudes are weak all the time in our 247 media driven world. It's tough having to navigate life with all these pre-judgments, but things are changing.

blanket,

rootvg is a bigot.

He has already posted hateful things on here about his gay neighbors in Dublin and gay peers in his tech field. It's best put that bigot on ignore.

clambo says

The population may be growing here but the people are not even all graduating high school.

That's my point - throw in as many babies you want but there has to be significant hike in wages to support the RE prices - or there has to be EZ credit like 0 down 10 to 15 times the salary to get the housing market really going. Most bulls don't get is there is significant disconnect between income and RE prices and if wages are on the decline or are not catching up with rest of the living cost then all I can say is God bless America.

E-man says

A lot of wealthy people fled HK in 1997 when it was giving back to China

They fled 'by" 1997... there were certainly many who fled to the Bay Area and other parts of California in early 90s, but that had no impact in RE prices.

Wealth ? from what I know and saw.. not very much! Their wealth from being merchant class translated to very little in the Bay Area. Cheap counterfeit goods are a big NO NO in the USA.

Lmao I wish there was a single house where I live that is new construction at 125$/sf.

At what point is your life worth anything?

You want to live in your own house, but are a slave to the stupidity that our policy makers have created for our us.
Here in Florida, for your average house, anyone sitting on the sidelines wanting to buy is really splitting hairs over 10, 20, 30 40K tops. That kind of loss is NOT the same as the 50% hit folks that bought at the height of the bubble. There you're talking 100K++++ depending on the situation.

Buying a house now with terms that are going to be doable will continue to be doable, no matter what your house does. So even it loses half the value, are you really "Under Water"?
Especially when your mortgage + Tax + insurance $1200 to $1500 tops a month.

I think you need a different perspective on how to look at it.
A 160K house in 2012 is no where no how the same animal as a 160K house in 1989. In 1989 the average mortgage rate was 7.5% you would have needed $35,000 down payment, and the mortgage would have been $1200 before the other escrow payments. 160K would have bought you a nice neighborhood back then so taxes would have been at least 300 a month, and the insurance would have been another $100.

Today you can buy in your comfort zone, even if its not your dream home. Hope for the best that it will depreciate, but expect it may go down some more for now. But you know what, that's just a bonus. If prices go lower, that will only mean you can afford to buy a nicer house of your liking. And you petition the city for cheaper taxes, it's a win. And unlike during the bubble, where folks were already straddled with a $3200 a month mortgage, and could not afford to burp until they flipped their current albatross, you will be able to rent your first house, and buy a second(nicer) for as mush if not cheaper than your first house.

Take control of your life, and quit letting the bastards get you down, you're killing your self worrying about that 20-40K you either may or may not lose in the short term.

Two final words, you say you plan on moving around in the next few years, why not control the circumstances on which you do, instead of being ushered hither and yond by the idiots that be?

Second, all real estate will start to appreciate again eventually?

Nows the time you may want to position your self where you have a few properties in your possession when they do.

If not for the piss poor performance that is the sad display that Ben Ber-hackie, is putting on. Most in their right mind would consider now a hell of a time to acquire real estate for what ever reason.

Of course the "Fortresses" not withstanding.

But even then, I think that's just a matter of people "wishing" in one hand and "Shitting" in the other, and not knowing when they are full, or got a hand full of poo.

My plan is to save few years and find job where I can work from home and do some travel and buy a place in south Florida to be closer to Latin America and the Caribbean. Much cheaper than overpriced California.

Austinhousingbubble says

"...[S]tudies suggest that having children can have a negative impact on happiness.

Reminds me of a great quote from a movie:
"I can feel it like cancer, getting bigger and bigger like the blob! One day it'll rip me open, and it'll be there in my life, ready to rob me of every bit of fun I deserve to have!"

We've decided it's the responsible thing to do to *not* have kids because we could not afford to raise them, since we only make a paltry 150k combined income and can't even afford to buy a house for stability.

We barely even go out to dinner anymore, let alone more than a neighboring town for vacations, and still scarcely have money for iPhones and coconut water.

I am with you. We are in a similar situation but started actively looking for a house last August 2011. We have been periodically monitoring housing prices and the latest Real estate scam-of-the- day and have learned LOTS. We are presently using about 12 different Buyers agents and about 5-6 listing agents. We compare the statements ( usually lies) between them and try to understand ALL the ways they cheat.

We have only a few rules, and rule number one:
RUN don't walk away as fast as possible THE VERY FIRST TIME you are lied to by any agents. I NEVER give them a second chance and there are NO EXCUSES ALLOWED. They give many lame reasons for "not knowing" what we know that they know. Yes we test them through other buyers and compare notes in the same way they have "multiple higher offers ---all cash" Interesting how their tales change as they tailor remarks to how much they think they can get from you! Some of them hate us for knowing their games but who cares. Most of them are losers and wannabe con artists who just got caught. They will try to figure out anew way to NOT get caught. All they have to do is tell the truth and stop trying to cheat others.

Rule number TWO- NEVER EVER BID AGAINST YOURSELF. IF you get a response higher multiple offers, DON'T BITE THE BAIT. Its a suckers ploy and don't fall for it. If its true, who cares?... there are MILLIONS of better houses unsold and millions more going through the foreclosure process. Besides...look at all the extra money your are saving by NOT BEING UPSIDE DOWN. UNIFORMLY with FEW exceptions....every single house we have made an offer on that was not "highest and best"...ie the buyers paid too much for it like during the peak of the bubble--- 99% are UPSIDE DOWN in just the past year.

We have a NEW STRATEGY that is evolving. Here is a hint. As of TODAY, you can still build a custom house THAT MEETS ALL of your requirements, that is larger and better at LOWER PRICES than these old cracker box dumps that are on the market today!

I will keep you informed as we progress. Here are the keys- look for pissed off architects tired of the developer-builder-sales agent conspiracy to keep prices high. We found a few. Also we found HONEST general contractors and sub contractors who are EXCELLENT craft-persons and are willing to work for an honest down to earth wage in TODAYS economy. We are prepared to pay cash for a job well done and on time. We also found a few sales agent-BROKERS who KNOW ALL THE TRICKS and have access to all the latest "marketing games"...they go to the same "marketing" meetings where they are learn about new ways to lie for a commission.

By working the various specialists you will learn who is naughty and a liar---usually when mouth is open and who is a real human--non liar.

SO we now have OUR own insiders who verify the painful experiences we have. NOTHING about this is "EASY" or simple...the system is set up ANTI-EASY, anti-simple for HONEST BUYERS. Don't give up. Ask me private message about the latest "doubletalk" you hear and I can confirm my knowldge of it, or you might have learned a new scam I have not run into... yet.

So yes...we have an architect-Engineer and are building a 2800 sq ft house- single story HVAC all the goodies---enviro designed -certified - all latest materials and techniques for under $75/sq ft. Actually, it is much less than this ($ 20 - 55/sq ft) but I don't want to drive the realtards crazy. Oh yes and it has 24 new PV solar panels with micro inverters that are highest quality and lowest prices. Not bad especially
when we see CERTIFIED CRAP "houses" asking $200/sq ft---most are termite and mold traps.

investor90 says

So yes...we have an architect-Engineer and are building a 2800 sq ft house- single story HVAC all the goodies---enviro designed -certified - all latest materials and techniques for under $75/sq ft. Actually, it is much less than this ($ 20 - 55/sq ft) but I don't want to drive the realtards crazy. Oh yes and it has 24 new PV solar panels with micro inverters that are highest quality and lowest prices. Not bad especially
when we see CERTIFIED CRAP "houses" asking $200/sq ft---most are termite and mold traps.

Well done. Do your cost include built-in kitchen cabinets and counters, bathrooms, smart-home capabilities, home theater ready,

"Well done. Do your cost include built-in kitchen cabinets and counters, bathrooms, smart-home capabilities, home theater ready".

Partially. We have two home theaters today in our rental- (I put them in and I use optical connectivity on 16 channels). The kitchen cabinets are custom REAL WOOD ( no laminates or plastic---anywhere) and they are less than $10,000, The THREE FULL BATHROOMS are custom and three times larger than typical. The structure is wired for network connectivity including CAT6 and Fiber. The smarthome capability is obvious. In addition, all exterior walls are structural-load bearing so we ( or any later owner) can easily rearrange the interior walls to suit purposes ( they are moveable INTERIOR walls). The plumbing uses a whole house reverse osmosis system and uses PEX indoors and Copper piping outdoors, a manifold in the utility cabinet provides and mixes hot water for each terminal outlet throughout the house. Each fixture has TWO full length incoming lines RED=HOT and Blue= Cold.

The house is RAISED on a foundation and 4 car garage is on a slab for low cost maintenance and utility access. The house is net-zero energy, not counting the PV panels. It is oriented on the lot to maximize solar energy use. The panels are designed for on-Grid use and at peak efficiency produces 4-5x the highest amount electric power we have ever used in our rental house. In order to qualify for the federal and state rebates and tax incentives, we had to place our houses on three incoming electric meters ( yes, that's a legal loophole that allows us to receive the maximum value for our day energy contribution) The house can be a net negative user over many months of the year. It is designed to produce a net surplus of energy but we won't know until the results of annual audits have been completed. We are not including an electric charging station for our plug in hybrid.

What about the two extra meters? They are used for our home vegetable garden. The house sits on two acres and has supplemental--AC mains - to power a water well. The only grass is eaten by goats, and we will have our own chicken coop for eggs. No roosters -- BTW.

The only future add on is a natural gas electric generator which will autostart if the Ac mains drop. We also plan to install a large natural gas powered commercial freezer for our attached storage area.

I almost forgot. The main area of the structure uses Truss roof construction. The attached storage area uses a flat roof design and has two purposes. The primary is to provide a flat elevated space for the PV solar panels and the secondary use is an elevated patio-deck entertaining area. The panels are protected from NE wind gusts.

Investor90,

Thank you for taking the time to explain your project. Was thinking of building a 3,000 sqft single story SFH on a 10,000 sqft plot. Made some enquiries, noted that the current price of land is about $100-$110 per sqft and building cost about $200-$250. So very impressed that you can do it for $75 per sqft. Just thinking, costs are prohibitive, probably won't get started unless the "RE would decline thesis" come true or may be get out of the golden state.

investor90 says

all latest materials and techniques for under $75/sq ft. Actually, it is much less than this ($ 20 - 55/sq ft) but I don't want to drive the realtards crazy.

And pigs fly by your window every night too? $20-55 sq ft.. haha..I'd love to see your receipts/labor bills and a picture of your "home" when it's finished.

Actually the ACTUAL cost is less. This price includes oak cabinets- NO MDF.

Thousands of these are built, and more are being built every day. The labor costs are very low since we found that cash works better than promises to pay "some day" when the general contractor feels like it....or if there is any money left after gambling new cars and booze. That's what the WORKERS tell us. They are EXTREMELY loyal since they aren't accustomed to getting paid on time. No apprentices are allowed on the job, and we do hire union labor for the appropriate trade. There are no middlemen...and double talkers. That's why houses INITIALLY sell at 3-10 times the actual cost of building.

1sfrenter says

If you are waiting to buy, how long do you expect to wait?

you should get your financial calculator and work on deciding what is your budget, your monthly affordability, how much money you have and how much of that willing to put down.

with that budget in mind you will know which zip codes you could afford, then start going to open houses, so you can get a feel about the house that would make you happy.

if you want so much to buy your house, and you are able to find your dream house, once you start living in it, your mind will change to proud owner, and you will not be so concerned about falling prices, even if you lose equity after you moved in.

make sure you stay in your budget, and comfortable paying mortage, with enough money left for savings and weekends enjoyment/your lifestyle.

if you start and do your homework, you will find it, at least you will be one of the few buyers in the market(less competition)

chip_designer says

if you start and do your homework, you will find it,

and just to add a few more lines, I know some friends who bought at the peak 2005-2007, but since they can pay, they did not panic or walk away.

People who walked away, are those who bought as investments, and therefore wanted to cut their losses.

and those people who feel stuck or withdrawn, are those that were too greedy, wanting the big house no matter what, using whatever financial means was possible at that time.

I already waited, then bought and sold within ten years time, realized housing is not affordable when my wages are not going up tandem with everything else. Well, you have to jump jobs to get paid more, well that makes buying a mute point. I wanted a smaller home, but heck, even the property taxes on those are still going up, and I can rent for two-three times the cost of the average property tax bill.

everything says

I already waited, then bought and sold within ten years time

Renting works perfectly for you.

Buying house is not for everyone.

If you have to jump jobs, you can forget buying, because first of all, the wells fargoS bankS will not even look at you in these days.

unless the bank are one of those crooked ones who are only after making a comission out of you.

investor90 says

We are presently using about 12 different Buyers agents and about 5-6 listing agents. We compare the statements ( usually lies) between them

Yes we test them through other buyers and compare notes

someone reading your suggestion
will need a lot of patient and time to keep track of multiple agents, and compare each other docs

selling professionals be it insurance, car, retail, house, contractor, they all want to make a living , and naturally they will coat the information to their advantage. You called this is "lying"

if you never make a statement to your advantage, then you are a saint.

people get to know agents thru referrals from friends, or if how they feel comfortable with the info they get from one.

any agent will work with you. You are their boss, after all their comission is still in your pocket, you can ask any info from them, and if everything you ask, and they give it you in a timely manner, you found a good agent.

But the homework, your budgeting, is your sole responsibility.