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So the FB IPO Is Tomorrow...Predictions & Trash Talk


               
2012 May 17, 4:04am   26,143 views  48 comments

by bmwman91   follow (5)  

According to the SJ Murky News, and most of the intertubes, Facebook is going to have its IPO tomorrow. Just for fun, let's get some guesses going in here. I'd suggest a betting pool, but that's sort of illegal in CA and I am not sure how we'd handle the money anyway.

OK, so put down your guesses for what the stock price will do relative to the opening price at future dates, and your explanation of WHY in 10 words or less for each. Use the dates in my guesses as the template. Either guess higher/lower (feel free to add adjectives), or as a percent of tomorrow's initial offering price.

@Closing on 5/18: 250% - Initial frenzy by anyone with an account
@Closing on 5/21: 300% - Continued frenzy by anyone with an account
@Closing on 5/25: 150% - Many initial buyers selling for quick profit, uninformed masses panic
@Closing on 6/18: 125% - Uninformed buyers are mostly out, large players remain
@Closing on 8/18: 125% - Large players holding still
@Closing on 11/18: 80% - Lock-up ends, employees & pre-sale buyers liquidate
@Closing on 5/18/2013: 50% - Earnings not amazing, more employees liquidate, approaching company's actual valuation

And of course, we can get some good trash talking going in here. My guesses may well be full of shit, or yours, or everyone's. There's no need to be bashful about it.

I will NOT be trying to buy any FB shares. While it seems like a "sure thing" to buy as many shares as I can at opening & sell before closing for quick money, there is no such thing as a "sure thing." Honestly, anything could happen tomorrow since this is probably the most hyped market event ever.

Cheers!

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1   permanent_marker   @   2012 May 17, 6:11am  

i say initial frenzy... every 'etrade pro' is clamoring to get in.
we will never hear the end of it in CNBC ..etc

What I am hoping is:
3 months later, stock deflates...
and this goes the way of Zynga / Groupon.

enough hype already.

2   RentingForHalfTheCost   @   2012 May 17, 6:18am  

FB will be bought out by Yahoo after the horrible crash when the insiders liquidate.

3   Vicente   @   2012 May 17, 6:35am  

I'll just be happy when it's over, so I can stop seeing the headlines about Fakebook.

A more pointless "investment" it is difficult for me to imagine.

I have a Fakebook account, which I begrudgingly check every 6 months or so. And every time I do, I'm reminded why I hate it. You are not my "friend" if you haven't visited or at least picked up the phone and called me in the last year sorry!

4   tiny tina   @   2012 May 17, 6:38am  

bmwman91 says

buy as many shares as I can at opening & sell before closing for quick money

I wonder how many people have this philosophy. I was thinking the exact same thing. I'll probably buy a few shares and give it a try.

As for the game, my guess is opens at 50 gets to 98 and closes at 85.

5   bmwman91   @   2012 May 17, 6:44am  

tiny tina says

I wonder how many people have this philosophy. I was thinking the exact same thing. I'll probably buy a few shares and give it a try.

This is why I am not trying it. EVERYONE is thinking it...it is obvious to a 7th grader. When everyone "knows" what the market is doing next, it gets very unpredictable!

As BusinessInsider (IIRC) says, FB stock is muppet bait.

6   tiny tina   @   2012 May 17, 6:56am  

bmwman91 says

This is why I am not trying it. EVERYONE is thinking it...it is obvious to a 7th grader. When everyone "knows" what the market is doing next, it gets very unpredictable!

As BusinessInsider (IIRC) says, FB stock is muppet bait.

I agree. I just remember back in the late 90's when every .com IPO'd and you could just watch in real-time up, up, up the first day. I feel this has the same frenzy all built into one stock. I don't plan on holding it past day 1, and if things go south I'll cut my losses.

7   Robber Baron Elite Scum   @   2012 May 17, 6:57am  

Who cares? Fuck facebook. I can't wait for this company to become like AOL. It's so useless & produces nothing that spectacular which makes it worth billions.

I am also sick & tired of the media always talking about how fucking wonderful facebook is.

FUCK YOU MARK... you stole someone else's idea & even their fucking programming software code for the website.

You are not the next Bill Gates. You are just a dumb piece of fuck who stole everything & claimed it as your own. At least Bill added on to something & then turned it into something great.

Facebook is the most dumbest fucking website & completely pointless. The ad service conversion is horrible. Advertisers are not making much ROI compared to Google. Hardly any ROI.

Facebook will probably be bought off & financed by the CIA to steal your personal information & to invade the privacy of you peasants.

If you own Facebook stock, sell out! If you hold a facebook account, stop using it now & delete it!

I have never hated any businessmen more than I hate Mark. All he has Accomplished is nothing but a pathetic little fucking gimmick of a site which is somehow "innovation"... I can't wait for him and his company to go completely bankrupt.

No company has ever managed to produce nothing while be worth billions of dollars. Facebook WILL crash... And many investors will lose all their money.

8   Patrick   @   2012 May 17, 10:45am  

So it starts publicly trading tomorrow, May 18th, right?

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/facebook-announces-pricing-of-initial-public-offering-151935145.html

The mechanics of it are still a little obscure to me. I think what really happens tomorrow is that earlier investors (the underwriters) get to dump their stock on the public (later investors) at $38/share. The company itself won't be selling any stock tomorrow. Correct me if I'm wrong.

9   CrazyMan   @   2012 May 17, 1:09pm  

GS pump and dump.

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