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RentingForHalfTheCost
2012 May 18, 8:07am
FB to hit $20ish by end of next week, then sit in the teens for months. Greatest short in the history of the market! If I had a BA house I would refi and take out some of the funny money to do this short. I would then have enough to move to China and seek out a good education for my kids. ;)
bmwman91
2012 May 18, 8:54am
LOL well, my initial guesses were so f***ing far off...which is exactly why I don't gamble with stocks. GS & MS must be shitting bricks right now considering how much stock they had to buy back to prop up the price at $38. Will they unload on Monday, or hold-out hoping for muppet masses to go all-in?
NorCalBear
2012 May 18, 9:24am
FB to hit $20ish by end of next week, then sit in the teens for months. Greatest short in the history of the market! If I had a BA house I would refi and take out some of the funny money to do this short. I would then have enough to move to China and seek out a good education for my kids. ;)
LOL well, my initial guesses were so f***ing far off...which is exactly why I don't gamble with stocks. GS & MS must be shitting bricks right now considering how much stock they had to buy back to prop up the price at $38. Will they unload on Monday, or hold-out hoping for muppet masses to go all-in?
Predictions, particularly abut the future, are hard, but were I more of a gambler I would certainly short FB.
However, before I took out a HELOC to cover that short, I'd remember the Keynesian quote, something like "Markets can stay irrational longer than investors can stay solvent".
I am a pebble in this hurricane, but I'm watching the FB train wreck from safe a distance.
bmwman91
2012 May 18, 10:24am
However, before I took out a HELOC to cover that short, I'd remember the Keynesian quote, something like "Markets can stay irrational longer than investors can stay solvent".
I am a pebble in this hurricane, but I'm watching the FB train wreck from safe a distance.
Me too, me too......
About valuations:
FB Facebook Inc , Mkt Cap 81.74B (began at 110B), 2011 profits 1B, 2012 profits less than 1B (projected), Mkt Cap/Profits ~82
GOOG Google Inc, Mkt Cap 195.75B, 2011 profits 37.9B, Mkt Cap/Profits ~5
After the FB fizzle on Friday, I have just a tad bit more respect for market buyers who can apparently recognize a dot.bomb "valuation" when they see it. They are going to have fun keeping this _turd_ afloat at $38 for the remaining 1.6B shares left to sell, more than twice the total number sold thus far.
bmwman91
2012 May 21, 6:45am
Well, it is down 11% to $34. AAPL is up almost 6%. Were people REALLY selling AAPL to buy FB, and are now flocking back?
zzyzzx
2012 May 22, 6:38am
I think it's pretty funny to see that guy who took his money and left the country. He's probably doing 2 chicks at once every day while watching FB stock drop and laughing the whole time.
bmwman91
2012 May 22, 2:50pm
I think it's pretty funny to see that guy who took his money and left the country. He's probably doing 2 chicks at once every day while watching FB stock drop and laughing the whole time.
If I had a million dollars........I'd do two chicks at the same time.
lisalisa
2012 May 22, 9:41pm
I fail to understand the culture. I fail to understand why a piece of software on some china built machines, with a bunch of storage is worth so much.
"I'm out..."
MisdemeanorRebel
2012 May 24, 5:00am
Screw this investing shit.
I'm just gonna place "Small, Classified Ads" like Don Lepree.
« First « Previous Comments 36 - 48 of 48 Search these comments
According to the SJ Murky News, and most of the intertubes, Facebook is going to have its IPO tomorrow. Just for fun, let's get some guesses going in here. I'd suggest a betting pool, but that's sort of illegal in CA and I am not sure how we'd handle the money anyway.
OK, so put down your guesses for what the stock price will do relative to the opening price at future dates, and your explanation of WHY in 10 words or less for each. Use the dates in my guesses as the template. Either guess higher/lower (feel free to add adjectives), or as a percent of tomorrow's initial offering price.
@Closing on 5/18: 250% - Initial frenzy by anyone with an account
@Closing on 5/21: 300% - Continued frenzy by anyone with an account
@Closing on 5/25: 150% - Many initial buyers selling for quick profit, uninformed masses panic
@Closing on 6/18: 125% - Uninformed buyers are mostly out, large players remain
@Closing on 8/18: 125% - Large players holding still
@Closing on 11/18: 80% - Lock-up ends, employees & pre-sale buyers liquidate
@Closing on 5/18/2013: 50% - Earnings not amazing, more employees liquidate, approaching company's actual valuation
And of course, we can get some good trash talking going in here. My guesses may well be full of shit, or yours, or everyone's. There's no need to be bashful about it.
I will NOT be trying to buy any FB shares. While it seems like a "sure thing" to buy as many shares as I can at opening & sell before closing for quick money, there is no such thing as a "sure thing." Honestly, anything could happen tomorrow since this is probably the most hyped market event ever.
Cheers!