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Stock Market Bubble, Housing Market Bubble, now Public Debt Bubble.


               
2012 May 17, 1:06pm   5,733 views  13 comments

by EconPete   follow (2)  

Does anybody actually think the current stock market is sustainable? Everyone knows that past performance does not indicate future stock performance. But, everyone also knows about the two previous bubbles and what happened when they popped. Is the current stock market's elevated position warranted? Unemployment is still high. The U.S. twin deficits are increasing, housing is still sliding.

Housing is what economists use to indicate the future direction of the economy. When housing markets are rising, it indicates that wages, unemployment, productivity, job security, and many other economic factors are in favorable positions. People do not make the largest purchase of their lives when finances are tight or uncertain. Also, if economic conditions are positive, people tend to build more and build larger homes. How did the stock market jump over the last 3 years then when the indicator for the economy has been pointing downward the whole time?

It is because the basis of the recovery is nothing other than the massive stimulus from Government debt and low interest rates. 1 trillion dollars of debt a year is almost 7% of GDP. This means that at least 7% of all current market transactions; sales, wages, home purchases, jobs, and production should not be taking place! No Government stimulus program can go on forever, we must pay it back sometime. So if there is no sound justifications for the stock market recovery, investors must be ready for another decline as the government deficits are reduced and interest rates increased.

#housing

Comments 1 - 13 of 13        Search these comments

1   bmwman91   2012 May 17, 3:13pm  

Rome is burning. I don't think that too many people disagree there. The real question is, "how long will the music keep playing?"

2   UAVMX   2012 May 17, 8:16pm  

I'm not so sure it's a bubble more then it's the VOLUME of people in it. As retirement has shifted from pensions, the focus is on 401k. I think that just THAT many more people are in the market now. Then you add online brokerage, and everyone has access to it for no real entry barrier....so it's a volume thing.

Do I think the stock market is too high right now, yes....but where else are people going to put their money??

I'm waiting for the second recession :-)

3   Robber Baron Elite Scum   2012 May 17, 8:24pm  

There is no such thing as the second recession. We are already in a depression but the full effects of the depression is simply being delayed, eventually it will come.

Stock market is rigged.

4   EconPete   2012 May 23, 8:37pm  

What, the stock market is rigged? That could never be the case....
READ THIS, then you will know how the government is colluding with banks and the elites! They couldn't be doing this with the housing market..... No, we have a capitalistic economy, right?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plunge_Protection_Team#Plunge_Protection_Team

5   StoutFiles   2012 May 23, 10:17pm  

Don't forget the College Tuition Bubble! My alma mater has doubled tuition (now 32k) in just twelve years.

6   WaterlooResident   2012 May 24, 12:50am  

Canadian housing is BOOMING !
If the stock market reflected the prices in Canadian housing then the S&P would be at 3,000 already !

Just because America is in the dumps doesn't mean the rest of the world is suffering too, grow up and stop whining, its annoying.

7   bubblesitter   2012 May 24, 1:02am  

bmwman91 says

Rome is burning.

Beginning of cannibal anarchy. :)

8   bubblesitter   2012 May 24, 1:04am  

WaterlooResident says

Canadian housing is BOOMING !

May be. I have lived there and it is so boring,dull,and depressing. At least USA life has a charm into it with whatever troubles we have.

9   PockyClipsNow   2012 May 24, 3:57am  

what does 'the end game/crash' of public debt bubble look like in US?

If you never buy food at a store or restaraunt or use gasoline or electricily from the grid, use or buy anything that is trucked or shipped into your city you should be fine right? So no worries!

10   duckhead   2012 May 24, 4:48am  

So much negativity here. How will you become Real Estate Tycoons like myself when you hang your head and wring your hands over such trivial matters as trillions upon trillions in debt bringing down economies all over the world? Debt is beautiful baby, it enabled me to buy so many houses and now I rent them out loser renters and make big bucks CHA CHING! DON’T WORRY BE HAPPY!

http://www.yHFDa9efCQU

11   rooemoore   2012 May 24, 5:24am  

This means China needs to hire Tony Soprano.

12   bubblesitter   2012 May 24, 6:21am  

rooemoore says

This means China needs to hire Tony Soprano.

Plus. They need more business from us,I suppose.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18185681
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18185685

13   thomas.wong1986   2012 May 24, 6:50am  

EconPete says

When housing markets are rising, it indicates that wages, unemployment, productivity, job security, and many other economic factors are in favorable positions.

a lagging indicator, but frankly we have been in a bubble as it relates to RE which has been disconnected from incomes and inflation. So really not a good indicator over the past years since 1998. therefore, dont rely on it for some time.

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