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Housing will slump at least until 2025, Japan is evidence!
2012 Jun 3, 11:54am 8,579 views 20 comments
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The housing market will start to come back when the employment situations starts to stabilize.
Jobs and Housing go hand and hand
.
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The housing market will start to come back when the employment situations starts to stabilize.
Jobs and Housing go hand and hand
.
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The "housing market" meaning sales volume and prices won't "comeback" to bubble levels... ever.
Ah, Yes that is very likely.
When do you think a turn around is possible??
freak80
2012 Jun 3, 1:47pm
APOCALYPSEFUCK isFrank Sinatra says
Japan makes and exports stuff.
All the US exports these days is death and financial crime.
Pretty much. That's why DC is the only place left with any money.
TMAC54
2012 Jun 3, 3:01pm
RECOVERY THIS . RECOVERY THAT ! WHAT A BUNCH A HARD ONS.
THERE WILL BE NO "RECOVERY ! What we had was a SPIKE after women were granted credit and the computer was introduced.
It's OVER. GET A GRIP. and oh yeah ... Tell a politician it's over, B4 they waist any more of our tax money on their personal quests.
The longer we selectively DENY the truth, the more money the politicos will say they need.
Anybody who uses the word "RECOVERY" on you, takes you for an idiot.
APOCALYPSEFUCK isFrank Sinatra says
It will be far worse in the states.
Japan makes and exports stuff.
All the US exports these days is death and financial crime.
Yeah we dont export anything... The Avengers is approaching 1 Billion in foreign box office grosses... Haha.
I always laugh when people say we dont export anything. Almost all entertainment in tv and film comes from L.A.
tdeloco
2012 Jun 3, 3:54pm
Yeah we dont export anything... The Avengers is approaching 1 Billion in foreign box office grosses... Haha.
I always laugh when people say we dont export anything. Almost all entertainment in tv and film comes from L.A.
It's a global economy, so every country imports and exports. The US had a $550B trade deficit last year. Sure we exported, but we imported a whole lot more.
In 2011, Japan had its first trade deficit since 1980.
Anybody who uses the word "RECOVERY" on you, takes you for an idiot.
Yep! Thats why we are still in a bubble!
I always laugh when people say we dont export anything. Almost all entertainment in tv and film comes from L.A.
Pretty much most, if not all, of the equipment used by Hollywood and TV/Cable Broadcasters isnt US made. Yes, imported.
RECOVERY THIS . RECOVERY THAT ! WHAT A BUNCH A HARD ONS.
THERE WILL BE NO "RECOVERY ! What we had was a SPIKE after women were granted credit and the computer was introduced.
It's OVER. GET A GRIP. and oh yeah ... Tell a politician it's over, B4 they waist any more of our tax money on their personal quests.
The longer we selectively DENY the truth, the more money the politicos will say they need.
Anybody who uses the word "RECOVERY" on you, takes you for an idiot.
How much invested ? How much back ? What's the risk ?
Good Graphs
Troll Hunter, your correct. But without some stable job market, housing can't stablize. If housing prices hit 1990 levels, then the job wages will do the same.
But without some stable job market, housing can't stablize. If housing prices hit 1990 levels, then the job wages will do the same.
There is no "if's". It's only a matter of duration.
Wages? They're already at early 1990's levels.
If you think wages are going to triple to meet grossly inflated housing prices, you're going to be waiting a very long time.
Oh we know wages are going to continue to fall either by inflation, dollar devalue, part time work vs full time...
Just saying House prices have to work with wages. If people dont have the financial means to purchase homes, well home prices have to come down to when it is financial reasonable.
bubblesitter
2012 Jun 4, 2:57am
Jobs and Housing go hand and hand
You mean those six figure jobs that are lost forever? Even the return of those heftily paid jobs is not sufficient to rescue the housing market - We need the return of EZ/LIAR loans.
Jobs and Housing go hand and hand
You mean those six figure jobs that are lost forever? Even the return of those heftily paid jobs is not sufficient to rescue the housing market - We need the return of EZ/LIAR loans.
DO YOUR MATH
Shh.. Don't give them any ideas :)
APOCALYPSEFUCK isFrank Sinatra says
Oh, really? How are the films financed and how much of the income stream is repatriated to the United States and what proportion of the investors are Americans who pay taxes?
Well, The Avengers is financed by Disney since they acquired Marvel. I would say all the CGI artists, cast and crew that created that film pay taxes in the U.S. Maybe they'll eventually outsource that too... if that's what your getting at.
But the ship has sailed for it ever being economical for the US to manufacture microchips and t-shirts again.
We should be evolving and concentrating on "bigger picture" exports of ideas and plans for the future of our society... We already export frivolous entertainment and pop culture to the world.
Bemoaning a lack of small-scale exports is not the answer. We should be aspiring to bigger and better things.
REpro
2012 Jun 4, 6:53am
APOCALYPSEFUCK isFrank Sinatra says
All the US exports these days is death and financial crime.
Nicely wrapped.
Goran_K
2012 Jun 4, 8:37am
Great, being the jesters and minstrels of the world is now our greatest export.
bmwman91
2012 Jun 4, 8:58am
Great, being the jesters and minstrels of the world is now our greatest export.
Indeed. God help us though, when people in other countries see our awful "reality" TV shows. Jersy Shore, Kardashian Whatchamacallit, Swmap People, Pawn Stars...
Quote from the book "Bad Money" by Kevin Phillips:
"Over the last thirty years financial services, including the ballooning debt and credit industry, have doubled to a record 20% of gross domestic product, while manufacturing has halved to 13%, greatly imperiling the economy."
It would seem that the U.S. excels at risk management, but from the results it sure doesn't seem that way! Maybe it is all the government support that keeps that industry growing and is why all the non-supported industries keep getting crushed.
Vicente
2012 Jun 5, 4:32am
Quote from the book "Bad Money" by Kevin Phillips:
"Over the last thirty years financial services, including the ballooning debt and credit industry, have doubled to a record 20% of gross domestic product, while manufacturing has halved to 13%, greatly imperiling the economy."
I agree with the substance of your quote.
It would seem that the U.S. excels at risk management, but from the results it sure doesn't seem that way! Maybe it is all the government support that keeps that industry growing and is why all the non-supported industries keep getting crushed.
But not with the conclusions you draw from it. The effort of the financial services industry has been to whittle away regulations, or distort what remains to make it window-dressing. Glass-Steagall couldn't have been clearer and simpler, which is why repealing it was such a triumph. Generally though most financial sector efforts to mold the entire economy around their needs are not so brazen, they are are more indirect like making sure derivatives never got regulated or run through a clearinghouse in the first place. Whittle away here, chip away there, it all adds up. What government oversight remains over financial sector is toothless, remember the TARP oversight committee? Neither does anyone else. And of course you have the now-standard revolving door where financial bigwigs do some "ghetto community service time" like Hank Paulson doing his turn at Treasury so he can mark that item off his pre-retirement checklist.
Richie Rich says jump, they ask how high.
Goran_K
2012 Jun 5, 4:46am
Indeed. God help us though, when people in other countries see our awful "reality" TV shows. Jersy Shore, Kardashian Whatchamacallit, Swmap People, Pawn Stars...
I remember when we used to build stuff and people would buy it. I am getting old.
Dotted line = price to income ratio
Solid line = price to rent ratio
Many people compare the United States' current economic difficulties with Japan's problems 15 years ago. Japan experienced a major credit binge due to loose credit markets which produced high asset inflation in the 80's. Japan also had their unsustainable housing bubble pop, theirs in 1992. Japan has been known for their major central bank intervention, zombie banks, and extremely low interest rates for the last 20 years. Japan has an aging population and experienced sharp declines in their total fertility rates shortly after the 1940's. Their housing bubble collapse was 50 years after their decline in fertility rates.
In 1955, the U.S. had high fertility rates similar to those of Japan in 1940. Both countries witnessed a halving of their Total Fertility Rate about 15 years after their peak. Subsequently, 50 years later both countries had their housing market collapse. Why? The shrinking demand of new entrants into their housing market could not support their excessive supply.
15 years apart, Japan and the U.S. had a surge in the population of 40-55 year olds prior to their housing collapse. At this age people are at their peak earning and spending years. This created an excessive demand in the credit markets which resulted in excessive money creation through fractional reserve banking. This produced inflation wherever the new, easy money was spent.
For the last 20 years, the Japanese government has been trying to re-inflate or minimize the bubble's impact to prevent the deleveraging of their unhealthy economy. There is nothing Japan's government can do to stop the adjustments in their demographic transition. These adjustments are why the graph shows "affordability†but still declining asset prices. When there are fewer people bidding to buy an excessive quantity of something, the price tends to fall. Likewise, in the U.S., The 50% decrease in demand is, and will be, too much to sustain current asset prices even if they may be "affordableâ€.
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-04-09/markets/31311630_1_chart-housing-bulls-ratio
Look at Total Fertility Rate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Vital_statistics
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan#Vital_statistics
#housing