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Has Housing Really Bottomed?


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2012 Jul 8, 7:30am   47,160 views  119 comments

by ZMan   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

This is a question for all. Have we really seen the bottom in the housing market, with all the foreclosures, lack of demand??...
If people are not working, they are not buying.
Don't we have to see some stabilization in the Job market before we get stabilization in the housing market?

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

#housing

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1   tatupu70   2012 Jul 8, 8:59am  

You have job cuts even during booms. That's nothing new. The job market has stabilized--hiring isn't as robust as everyone would hope, but it's going the right direction.

You can really only tell the bottom in hindsight... Ask again a year from now.

2   ZMan   2012 Jul 8, 9:12am  

tatupu70 says

You have job cuts even during booms. That's nothing new. The job market has stabilized--hiring isn't as robust as everyone would hope, but it's going the right direction.

You can realy only tell the bottom in hindsight... Ask again a year from now.

Your are correct there are cuts in good times too. But Do you actually believe that the current Job market has stabilized?

3   tatupu70   2012 Jul 8, 9:35am  

ZMan says

Your are correct there are cuts in good times too. But Do you actually believe that the current Job market has stabilized?

All the available data certainly seems to say so.

4   New Renter   2012 Jul 8, 9:35am  

ZMan says

Your are correct there are cuts in good times too. But Do you actually believe that the current Job market has stabilized?

Yes! - now go out an buy the first house you see or be forever priced out of the market!

5   ZMan   2012 Jul 8, 9:44am  

Theses are some very frightening responses.
Nothing has changed over the last 3-4+ years. Without any real directions, or semi solutions saying the Housing or Job market is ok, is really wow.
Believe in long term solutions not hope.

6   freak80   2012 Jul 8, 9:46am  

New renter says

Yes! - now go out an buy the first house you see or be forever priced out of the market!

Buy now before the Chinese do!

7   tatupu70   2012 Jul 8, 10:22am  

ZMan says

Theses are some very frightening responses.

Nothing has changed over the last 3-4+ years. Without any real directions, or semi solutions saying the Housing or Job market is ok, is really wow.

Believe in long term solutions not hope.

I guess you weren't really looking for an answer then, huh? Sorry, I misunderstood...

8   CrazyMan   2012 Jul 8, 10:33am  

Jobs involving smoke and mirrors is at an all time high!

The job market has stabilized (lol)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-economy-hits-another-big-bump-2012-07-08

9   ZMan   2012 Jul 8, 10:36am  

tatupu70 says

ZMan says

Theses are some very frightening responses.

Nothing has changed over the last 3-4+ years. Without any real directions, or semi solutions saying the Housing or Job market is ok, is really wow.

Believe in long term solutions not hope.

I guess you weren't really looking for an answer then, huh? Sorry, I misunderstood...

No I was, just wasn't ready an answer saying for all data/ signs point to stabilization in housing/jobs. Was expecting more

But thanks for answering.

10   freak80   2012 Jul 8, 10:41am  

There are plenty of new McJobs being created out there. Be positive!

11   ZMan   2012 Jul 8, 10:50am  

wthrfrk80 says

There are plenty of new McJobs being created out there. Be positive!

Very positive :) , Just replacing good paying jobs with low paying jobs isn't going to work when it comes to buying houses. You go from $60,000 to $30,000 that a huge hit and almost completely knocks you out of the housing market.

12   New Renter   2012 Jul 8, 11:13am  

ZMan says

wthrfrk80 says

There are plenty of new McJobs being created out there. Be positive!

Very positive :) , Just replacing good paying jobs with low paying jobs isn't going to work when it comes to buying houses. You go from $60,000 to $30,000 that a huge hit and almost completely knocks you out of the housing market.

True but other posters on this forum are pointing to the big software companies hiring fresh grads at $100k with good mid-career programmers at the $200k income level. There must be some truth to that to have spurred this recent BA home transaction rally

13   bmwman91   2012 Jul 8, 11:16am  

ZMan, are you asking about the nation as a whole, or a specific area? It is sort of a meaningless question since real estate is extremely local. Most people don't give a damn about nation-wide prices, just the ones around where they live, or want to live.

14   thomas.wong1986   2012 Jul 8, 3:56pm  

ZMan says

This is a question for all. Have we really seen the bottom in the housing market, with all the foreclosures, lack of demand??...

What ever region your interested in ?
.. the answer is take mid 1990s prices and add inflation
.. say 35% and that will give you an idea of normal pricing.

Read Robert Shiller Irrational Exuberance to get a better idea.

15   thomas.wong1986   2012 Jul 8, 3:59pm  

New renter says

True but other posters on this forum are pointing to the big software companies hiring fresh grads at $100k with good mid-career programmers at the $200k income level.

LOL! nonsense... and how will their vetern manager feel about that.. their manager most likely started at a fraction say $30K and took them 20 years of experience and promotion to get over $100K...

New grad getting easy $100K.. unlikely!

16   seaside   2012 Jul 8, 4:38pm  

ptiemann says

but $100k for new people is definitely correct.

Talking about fresh bachelor out of the college or masters degree? Really SW engineer or just a coder? SW developer or IT technician? I think those terms are quite different though, the thing is that people tend to exaggerate when it comes to two or maybe three stuffs. Their salary/job title and the size of what's hanging up in their pants. So, which is it? :)

17   seaside   2012 Jul 8, 4:58pm  

So, they're masters w/ few years of field experience, going to develop actual software using JAVA/Unix/Network skill. Yup, that sounds like 100K job in IT.

18   thomas.wong1986   2012 Jul 8, 5:08pm  

ptiemann says

@thomas.wong1986 - I don't know about the $200k for software people ('mid career programmers') but $100k for new people is definitely correct.

In most companies SW engineers top out around $140k, unless they move into a manager position.

Rubish! you gotta have many years of experience and success stories to get to even close to 100K... and like i said above.. your certainly not going to get anywhere near $100K right out of school since your manager had to get his $100K working many years. There are no free rides even in for SW coders.

You get many making $100K thats a HUGE chunk of cash.... your better off moving those jobs elsewhere! and many did! The Payroll records and even SV CEOs can attest that. See 3:00 below

http://pressheretv.com/?p=2710

19   thomas.wong1986   2012 Jul 8, 5:11pm  

seaside says

Based on the unsolicited emails that still I receive from recruiters every week, I estimate that salaries are a bit higher now

Everyone gets those and I have seen many over my career! and like a car advertisment... the fine line states... only one at this price... they are teasers to get your resume.

20   ZMan   2012 Jul 8, 11:03pm  

I haven't made up my mind at all, just asking if anyone had any proof or anything.
All I hear is housing is bottoming here and there. Its like really how is that possible?
I can post articles and articles here I read about more foreclosures, Renting is up, Job losses up, Fake Job posting to give people the illusion of jobs..
I been through NY, NC quite a few other places and all see the same thing. Big Factories closing, street filled with realtor signs...

Looking for a turn around you bet, but I want a real one.. Not one that is fake and just pumped into my head by the news.

21   ZMan   2012 Jul 8, 11:06pm  

New renter says

ZMan says

wthrfrk80 says

There are plenty of new McJobs being created out there. Be positive!

Very positive :) , Just replacing good paying jobs with low paying jobs isn't going to work when it comes to buying houses. You go from $60,000 to $30,000 that a huge hit and almost completely knocks you out of the housing market.

True but other posters on this forum are pointing to the big software companies hiring fresh grads at $100k with good mid-career programmers at the $200k income level. There must be some truth to that to have spurred this recent BA home transaction rally

Please send the link or post it. Thanks

22   freak80   2012 Jul 9, 12:49am  

ZMan says

Very positive :) , Just replacing good paying jobs with low paying jobs isn't going to work when it comes to buying houses. You go from $60,000 to $30,000 that a huge hit and almost completely knocks you out of the housing market.

Are you suggesting you should have a job, income, assets, and a good credit score to buy a house? That sounds like discrimination.

23   StoutFiles   2012 Jul 9, 12:53am  

thomas.wong1986 says

ptiemann says

@thomas.wong1986 - I don't know about the $200k for software people ('mid career programmers') but $100k for new people is definitely correct.

In most companies SW engineers top out around $140k, unless they move into a manager position.

Rubish! you gotta have many years of experience and success stories to get to even close to 100K... and like i said above.. your certainly not going to get anywhere near $100K right out of school since your manager had to get his $100K working many years. There are no free rides even in for SW coders.

You get many making $100K thats a HUGE chunk of cash.... your better off moving those jobs elsewhere! and many did! The Payroll records and even SV CEOs can attest that. See 3:00 below

A lot of coding jobs have been moved overseas, not to mention that major corporations have been pushing the government for work visas to get cheaper engineers.

I do believe that certain coders could start at 100k, but only in high prices areas like San Fran.

24   ZMan   2012 Jul 9, 1:04am  

wthrfrk80 says

ZMan says

Very positive :) , Just replacing good paying jobs with low paying jobs isn't going to work when it comes to buying houses. You go from $60,000 to $30,000 that a huge hit and almost completely knocks you out of the housing market.

Are you suggesting you should have a job, income, assets, and a good credit score to buy a house? That sounds like discrimination.

I'm not suggesting, I'm point out the facts.

For the person saying 100k jobs, please let me know a link/more details.

25   freak80   2012 Jul 9, 1:10am  

ZMan says

I'm not suggesting, I'm point out the facts.

I was being sarcastic with my "discrimination" comment. I was trying to illustrate how the word is misused by some people.

26   ZMan   2012 Jul 9, 1:12am  

wthrfrk80 says

ZMan says

I'm not suggesting, I'm point out the facts.

I was being sarcastic with my "discrimination" comment. I was trying to illustrate how the word is misused by some people.

Hehehe sorry , I did take it that way.. but some people are dead serious when they say stuff like that.

27   freak80   2012 Jul 9, 1:16am  

ZMan says

but some people are dead serious when they say stuff like that.

Yes I know. Scary isn't it?

28   New Renter   2012 Jul 9, 1:23am  

ZMan says

For the person saying 100k jobs, please let me know a link/more details.

Take a look at glassdoor.com You can also try to get a recent copy of the Radford Survey - that is the gold standard for setting salaries. Unfortunately it is also really expensive, probably to keep individuals from subscribing. It is published quarterly so if you have a buddy in HR they might be able to float you an older copy.

29   New Renter   2012 Jul 9, 1:31am  

StoutFiles says

A lot of coding jobs have been moved overseas, not to mention that major corporations have been pushing the government for work visas to get cheaper engineers.

Yes I believe that feeds into the pervasive myth of the shortage of scientists (and engineers):

/?p=1214031

The real shortage is for highly trained and motivated people willing (or simply forced) to work long hours at a frustrating job for little pay. Enter the H1B work visa - you work or back you go!

Then again it's better than graduate school...

30   ZMan   2012 Jul 9, 3:49am  

wthrfrk80 says

ZMan says

but some people are dead serious when they say stuff like that.

Yes I know. Scary isn't it?

wthrfrk80 says

ZMan says

but some people are dead serious when they say stuff like that.

Yes I know. Scary isn't it?

It is very scary

Thanks New Renter for the link, I'll be contacting them.
I see alot of jobs and salaries, but are there really openings or just more listings.

31   Goran_K   2012 Jul 9, 5:33am  

Do people really see job stabilization? Unemployment is still higher than the 2009 low when this "recovery" supposedly began, and "total unemployment" is set to go higher if the numbers for July are as weak as expected. June 2012 was the weakest June since the crash began (only 80,000 jobs added).

In fact at 8.2% unemployment, this is the highest rate ever in an election year (14.5% total unemployment).

I'd say there is anything but "stable" job growth, more like stagnant job growth.

32   clambo   2012 Jul 9, 5:54am  

The answer depends on your location. There is no bottom in some places and there is an apparent bottom in others.
Choose your spot and you can see the variation.
The town I lived in in CT never had a bubble, and the bubble never popped for example.
OR you can check out places like Cambria CA, Seaside CA, etc.

33   ZMan   2012 Jul 9, 6:04am  

clambo says

The answer depends on your location. There is no bottom in some places and there is an apparent bottom in others.

Choose your spot and you can see the variation.

The town I lived in in CT never had a bubble, and the bubble never popped for example.

OR you can check out places like Cambria CA, Seaside CA, etc.

Correct, Real Estate is very local based. I was just looking at a basic whole market.
Also like you said in your area there was not housing bubble. Thats great but now with maybe the current job situation, yeah houses are not inflated but people's purchasing power is now greatly reduced. AkA, housing has to come down to the local wages/ job market

34   New Renter   2012 Jul 9, 6:40am  

ZMan says

I see alot of jobs and salaries, but are there really openings or just more listings.

And THAT is the $100k question!

35   ZMan   2012 Jul 9, 7:40am  

ptiemann says

I think this entire thread was created to bring traffic to the web site listed in the original post.

Ptiemann you just seem mad, because I ask for links, sites anything to back up your claim of all theses jobs and wages. I was using a site to say look at the job situation. Thats why i'm here on patrick.net because I'm interested in what people think of the job/housing market.
You have done nothing to actually back up what you say.

Thats why I'm going to the site New renter and trying to find more details.
I spend time to back up my talk

36   ZMan   2012 Jul 9, 8:57am  

ptiemann says

zman, I am not mad.
If you think the job situation is bad, fine, you are welcome to believe it.

I'm not believing anything, Its not my opinion. Trust me I wish it was just my opinion and I was off the wall. Unfortunately its continual facts.

Agree that site is useful. Looking through a bunch of listing, most are for very low positions and some are good, but require 8 years experience, +++ . If anything that site shows there are jobs but like I was saying, at lower reduced rates, which in return will have an effect on the housing market.

Again no hard feelings, just amazed at where we are today and where people feel they are ( mentally )

37   ZMan   2012 Jul 9, 9:35am  

ptiemann says

zman, are you actually looking for employment in Santa Clara County as a software engineer? I did not realize that from your original post.

Your mess with me, I get it, Hahaha, Hehehe.

I'm not looking for a software engineer job

The link you posted talks about salaries of what you should make.
Nobody cares about that, Lets see the listing of theses jobs and where to apply.
Not for me, for maybe someone on this site that might be looking. If all theses jobs are available lets see them.

You want to take it in that direction fine, Do some good for the viewers of this site.

PS: Your Said - "Since 2011, I get more than one recruiter emailing me each
month".

That means absolutely zero, recruiters will call you no matter what, crap jobs, temp jobs anything.

38   tatupu70   2012 Jul 9, 9:42am  

ZMan says

The link you posted talks about salaries of what you should make.

No--the links shows what people who are working in the field actually do make.

ZMan says

Lets see the listing of theses jobs and where to apply.

Like this?:
http://www.careerbuilder.com/Jobseeker/Jobs/JobResults.aspx?IPath=QH&ch=&rs=&_ctl0%3ANavBar1%3AucQuickBar%3As_rawwords=sr+software+engineer&_ctl0%3ANavBar1%3AucQuickBar%3As_freeloc=California&_ctl0%3ANavBar1%3AucQuickBar%3As_jobtypes=ALL&qsbButton=Find+Jobs

I'm not even a software engineer, so there are probably better sites to look at. Others here should be able to show you the best places to look.

But what exactly ARE you looking for? I can post unemployment rate over the last 3 years, but I suspect that won't satisfy you. I can post median income or household income changes over the last 3 years, but, again, I doubt that would satisfy you.

What kind of data are you looking for??

39   ZMan   2012 Jul 9, 9:51am  

tatupu70 says

But what exactly ARE you looking for? I can post unemployment rate over the last 3 years, but I suspect that won't satisfy you. I can post median income or household income changes over the last 3 years, but, again, I doubt that would satisfy you.

What kind of data are you looking for??

Now I'm looking for some possible articles/links in regards to all theses high paying jobs.

We are already on 2 different levels if you going to post unemployment rates for me. Current unemployment rate is 8.2 sure great. but lets not talk about the 43 Million on food stamps.
I forgot its because they are working making so much money.

Nothing about this is satisfying to me, I'm just looking at the facts, good or bad. It is what it is.
Just getting some peoples view on how they think its going to affect the housing market and can it recover with low / low paying jobs. Pretty simple...

Enough yapper, we can go round and round forever. :) Have a good rest of the day

40   tatupu70   2012 Jul 9, 10:39am  

ZMan says

Now I'm looking for some possible articles/links in regards to all theses high paying jobs.

That's your problem, I think. Companies don't put out press releases when they hire 10 engineers. Or when they add another shift in the production line(for the most part--maybe a huge auto plant would.)

Here's a new plant, but I'm sure it won't satisfy you either. Your mind appears to be made up.

http://www.npr.org/2012/07/02/156144464/airbus-u-s-plant-would-bring-1-000-jobs-to-alabama

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