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Why Romney is winning and why he will win


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2012 Jul 19, 5:18am   56,865 views  122 comments

by Tenpoundbass   ➕follow (8)   💰tip   ignore  

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/226943-poll-romney-opens-up-big-lead-nationally

Mitt Romney has opened up 7 percent lead over President Obama nationally, according to the latest survey from conservative polling outlet Rasmussen.

Romney took 50 percent of the vote against Obama’s 43. It’s the first time Romney has hit 50 percent in the poll and is his largest lead over the president to date.

The disappointing jobs data released last week could be weighing the president down. Rasmussen found that only 38 percent of those polled said they approved of the president’s handling of the economy, versus 48 that disapproved.

Still, the poll could be an outlier, as most polls show a considerably tighter race. According to Gallup’s daily tracking poll, Romney holds only a 1 percent lead over Obama, while the president holds a one-point lead over Romney in the Real Clear Politics average of polls.

The RCP average includes Romney’s seven-point Rasmussen lead, as well as a few other potential outliers, including an Associated Press poll that shows Obama up by eight and a Reuters poll that shows Obama up by seven — both of which were released this week.

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll of 500 likely voters has a 3 percent margin of error.

Him draw bad card...

#politics

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116   Bellingham Bill   2012 Aug 1, 3:51am  

Peter P says

Perhaps the Clinton boom has something to do with the Reagan tax cuts?

No. AFAICT the Clinton boom was thanks to the feel good times of the Soviet empire collapsing, cheap oil, PC take-up in business (and GUIs making them more productive than MS-DOS), the increasing globalization trend, rise of big-box retail stores, and the demographics of the baby boom (the median boomer was 35 in 1990), and the system having worked off the excess debt loads of the 1980s.

I'd link to graphs but FRED is down now.

117   marcus   2012 Aug 1, 3:58am  

Delurking says

PC take-up in business (and GUIs making them more productive than MS-DOS)

This and the advent of networking and email was more significant than many realize, in terms of productivity. Not to mention expectations about internet commerce and all the investment that was scaling up for that.

We didn't expect to have flying cars in the 21st century, but there definitely was irrational exuberance out there.

118   HEY YOU   2012 Aug 1, 7:57am  

Coulter: "If you don't run Chris Christie, Romney will be the nominee and we'll lose."

119   rootvg   2012 Aug 1, 8:02am  

HEY YOU says

Coulter: "If you don't run Chris Christie, Romney will be the nominee and we'll lose."

She knows better. That's what the Fox News, stir-up-shit-and-scream crowd wants to hear. It is NOT what the party establishment types want to hear and they're running things this time around.

I'm fairly confident the VP nominee will be Portman.

As far as Obama winning a second term is concerned, there's nothing I've seen so far that shows me it is possible. David Dewhurst is as establishment Republican as it gets and when he gets knocked off his pedestal you know something wild is gonna happen.

120   Bellingham Bill   2012 Aug 1, 3:02pm  

rootvg says

As far as Obama winning a second term is concerned, there's nothing I've seen so far that shows me it is possible

http://electoral-vote.com

Romney has to cobble together 63 EVs from that map.

FL, WI, OH give him 57, so he'd need CO or VA on top of those.

And purity trolls allegedly on the left publicy whine on why Obama is so pro-military, LOL.

121   hrhjuliet   2012 Aug 1, 3:07pm  

Romney is a spoiled idiot who is owned by the corporations and doesn't care a tiny bit about the average citizen. Period. Not that I care for Obama as a second choice, but I'd rather have Obama than that twit of a man. I'm voting for Ron Paul, since Obama will win California by a landslide, so I can do that without feeling like I'm throwing my vote away.

122   rdm   2012 Aug 1, 4:41pm  

rootvg says

David Dewhurst is as establishment Republican as it gets and when he gets knocked off his pedestal you know something wild is gonna happen.

Just another indication of the rightward movement of the republican base. This doesn't translate into a move rightward by the country as a whole, just an affirmation of a trend in the republican primaries. Latest polls show a tilt toward Obama in Ohio and Florida while Penn. is pretty much no longer in contention (if it ever was). In a quirk of fate some of the swing states have seen significant improvements in their economies verses the nation as a whole. Romney, ideas aside, is just a terrible politician and an un-likable plutocrat. It really is a amazing he got the nomination, that is until you look at his competition in the primaries.

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