patrick.net

So which existing member are you with a new account? Or, which real estate sales office are you working in?

I neither have another account nor am I a real estate agent. Care to comment on the article? Pretty damning coming from ForeclosureRadar, wouldn't you say?

To parse out the interesting part...

A year ago, banks were sitting on 8,652 homes in the four counties of the South Bay and East Bay. Last month, that had dropped to about 6,200.

"Everyone keeps looking for this wave, the illusive "shadow inventory," Lenahan of ForeclosureRadar said. "Everyone thinks the banks are sitting on these huge numbers of properties. The bottom line is, it doesn't exist," she said.

"We continue to see bank owned inventories declining. We see delinquencies declining, foreclosures flat. There are no tsunami warning signs going off."

I don't see anything damning in there, but then again I have never expected a foreclosure tsunami in the SFBA. The article says that foreclosure sales are down YoY, but up 25% MoM in Santa Clara. Your original post sort of reads like a troll post. If it isn't, my apologies.

I think that NoDs are down this year because of the tighter inventory driving prices up. Underwater folks may think that they will get back above water & are continuing to pay their mortgages, and also expecting some sort of government free money / refi programs. I think that foreclosures will remain higher than the historical norm for years to come. No wave or tsunami, but a higher rate than was historically normal as this dysfunctional RE market continues to correct.

.... two items in the most recent quarterly 10-Q SEC filing from Fannie Mae opens the possibility that lenders may be intentionally holding back REO inventory from being listed.

The first item is found in the list of reasons that Fannie gives for only 22 percent of its REO inventory being listed for sale: Other, accounting for 5 percent of the total 78 percent that are not listed......

http://www.realtytrac.com/content/news-and-opinion/bank-owned-homes-not-listed-for-sale-7334

robertoaribas says

call it lazy to think... there was NEVER a time in history with no foreclosures... EVER, even during the bull years.

So dropping numbers of bank owned homes indicates a crisis ending, and is the antithesis of your and many other people's argument on here...

Now suddenly it is the fiscal cliff? what about the 2300 computer issue?

Actually, there is a Y2038 problem.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem

robertoaribas says

Now suddenly it is the fiscal cliff? what about the 2300 computer issue?

"fiscal cliff" is my appreciation that the past 2-3 years have been courtesy of budgetary bullshit.

And it's within the Republicans' power to put an end to the bullshit.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Justice/2012/0716/Patty-Murray-Democrats-will-go-over-fiscal-cliff-unless-GOP-relents

I think the return to the Clinton tax rates for all is perfectly fine.

As is the return of 6.2% FICA.

Gonna be a kick in the balls to the economy, but it's good medicine for the long run.

And at the state level, we've got a lot of medicine to take too -- a lot of budgetary bullshit to undo.

That's the "Fiscal Cliff".

Maybe the Republicans will blink and throw their tea party contingent under the bus.

Wouldn't bet on it, which is why I am Out Of The Market.

Maybe the "shadow inventory" is better nomered as the secret inventory?

robertoaribas says

Now suddenly it is the fiscal cliff?

Fiscal cliff is where this market, entire states, are heading in CA and NY.

Seriously, Contra Costa Times, a jackal beholden to real estate interests and real estate advertising?

Such an objective source, I guess the shadow inventory is pure BS, better run and buy right away before the market appreciation gets away from you, yada yada yada, better jump, stampede to your friendly local real estate agent and beg him for his tender mercies.

If economic basics do not support the market, then reversion to the mean, sooner or later, is the inevitable course. A dab of inflation, a dollop of higher interest rates, those temporary price increases will be in the rear view mirror. This is a manipulated market, and when the props fall out, the curves will start back down again.

wave9x says

There is no "shadow inventory"

LOL! like someone that plastered all over THERE IS NO HOUSING BUBBLE!

Randy H says

Actually, there is a Y2038 problem.

whats UNIX ? (im just kidding!)

Think what you want about the Contra Costa Times, but this was not an op-ed piece. The interesting part is what ForeclosureRadar said. It is in FR's interest to promote a "shadow inventory" so people will sign up for their service. Instead they say the opposite, that the number of bank owned properties is dwindling. Are you now going to claim that FR is also a jackal beholden to the real estate industry, rather than address the numbers and facts?

Just noticed this is from the SJ Mercury News, rerun by the CC Times. Educate me, is the SJ Mercury News also a jackal beholden to th RE industry?

I can drive through a prospective neighborhood and see that 30 houses are for sale or foreclosed, yet only 10-15 appear on the web as for sale. If those other houses aren't in the shadow inventory, then where are they?

What about all the people behind on their payments? The people just waiting to sell if prices would rise just a tiny bit more?

StoutFiles says

I can drive through a prospective neighborhood and see that 30 houses are for sale or foreclosed, yet only 10-15 appear on the web as for sale. If those other houses aren't in the shadow inventory, then where are they?

What about all the people behind on their payments? The people just waiting to sell if prices would rise just a tiny bit more?

It depends on what you mean by shadow inventory. There are well documented statistics of 30/60/90 days behind on payments. And actual foreclosures.

So, in my mind, there's nothing shadow about that. You can know with a pretty good degree of certainty how many foreclosures are coming down the pipeline, even if you don't know exactly when they'll hit.