0
0

I just bought a house and it will cost half as much to own vs rent same house


 invite response                
2012 Oct 12, 8:54am   117,004 views  412 comments

by PockyClipsNow   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

I hope this is a real world math lesson for some of the 'should I buy now' crowd. Its a tough decision.

Price: 875k
$ Financed: 700k

Loan: 5/1 Interest Only ARM at 2.875 with .25 points (union bank)
Payment: 1677
Prop tax: 912
total: 2588
(im in 28% effective tax bracket so 2588 * .72 = 1863 'after tax write off payment')
Add fire ins of 129 per month and total pmt after tax write off = $1992

This is a custom built, recently remodeled huge estate home on acreage and zoned for horses - would rent for 3800 to 4200 based on craigslist comps.

If I change jobs I can make 1k per month easy in profit when renting it out. Its not a great rental though, but an awsome to live in property.

I sold four homes off in 05/06 and the plan was wait for 50% drop then buy back in. Well prices only came down to 70% of peak fraud prices - close enough with the low intrest rates (which I am betting are permanent, as in the rest of your life. If rates spike in 5 years I will simply pay off the loan, refi, or get a loan mod - no worries here.)

« First        Comments 29 - 68 of 412       Last »     Search these comments

29   ELC   2012 Oct 13, 5:39am  

PockyClipsNow says

1. If prices tank and you walk away you lose DP+all principal payments made

As long as you plan on walking away some day how can you lose?

30   mell   2012 Oct 13, 5:45am  

PockyClipsNow says

(zero chance we will ever see a 7% mortgages again IMO -other than subprime/hard money loan)

Famous last words - never discount anything - people who are extremely wealthy don't care either way (although hedging against hyperinflation requires more effort) and there comes a time where deflation is the lesser of two evils compared to hyperinflation. Also, walking away at least destroys your credit, which is not a big issue if you have enough reserves to weather bad times and know you won't depend on credit by the banks.

31   ELC   2012 Oct 13, 5:50am  

PockyClipsNow says

I know my girlfriend is sure happy as hell now. Never seen her this happy! lol (of course I'm only buying in my own name and will never get married....fastest way to go broke is to get married/buy house/have kids/get divorced but thats a different message board!)

Well no sh_t sherlock. Of course she's happy. If your girlfriend is happy, you will be inversely happy eventually because you have been subliminally conditioned by her over time to want what she wants yet you think it's what you want.

To help break the spell, before you sign the papers drive far far away to a luxury resort and get yourself an 18 year old call girl. Then relax and ask yourself, "do I really need this house?" See if your true inner being tells you yes. :) If that doesn't work simply imagine yourself living there alone.

32   JG1   2012 Oct 13, 7:18am  

War says

Rents are falling my friend.

War, why don't you actually address these facts this time?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303933404577505260835025948.html

33   David9   2012 Oct 13, 7:44am  

Wow, from my viewpoint where I am standing, that is ballsy.

But, appreciate the different viewpoints.

Who knows? someday I may post some much lower end property I bought. As of yet, haven't come close.

34   soopercommuter   2012 Oct 13, 2:44pm  

$4k/mo rent for a horse property in LA is reasonable. The house right across the street from mine is renting for $3k/mo and I am in Riverside. It's a horse property, and it's a 4000 s/f tract home on an acre. This home was bought for $420k in late 2010. It also has ZERO landscaping, basically just like it came from the builder in 2004. Nice homes in this area are easily renting for $3500/mo. Again I am in the IE! Down here buying is currently WAY, WAY cheaper than renting.

35   37108605   2012 Oct 13, 8:36pm  

soopercommuter says

Down here buying is currently WAY, WAY cheaper than renting.

Good luck to you.

36   Mark77   2012 Oct 14, 12:43am  

2.875% on an ARM isn't realistic over the long term either. Surprised nobody's mentioned this. When that goes up, not only is your monthly carry going to be significantly worse, but the price of the house should decline as well.

Long term assets should always use long-term financing in the calculations.

37   Raw   2012 Oct 14, 2:10am  

PockyClipsNow says

Principal payments in a loan are stupid for two reasons:

1. If prices tank and you walk away you lose DP+all principal payments made

2. Most people just get a heloc anyway after a number of years to buy a dumb car or send kids to school.

3. the principal payment will blow up your debt to income ratio which limits your acquistion of other loans/mortgages. (we are year one of the next up cycle of real estate, time to buy quality properties located well at a good price - if you can find them, not easy)

4.If you think you can pay off a gigantic 500k+ loan rotsa ruck buddy, i am relying on future price appreciation then selling to make money.

You are advocating maximum leverage, one of the main causes of the real estate mess. If you always leverage yourself to the max, it will only be a matter of time before you go bankrupt with the very next down turn.
The best strategy is to ensure enough cash flow to see you through a downturn.

38   soopercommuter   2012 Oct 14, 2:14am  

I don't know what rental rates are doing in LA. I'm in Riverside and they are not falling here. Average rents went up 3.5% in 2011 and another 2% up so far this year. When I bought my current home in 2010 I kept my old house as a rental. That home would be worth about $140k and I have it rented for $1600/mo. And that is why the low end properties out here were selling in a matter of hours. Currently there is nothing to buy at the low end.
I don't know what will happen to rental rates. They might go up, or down or stay the same. I don't really care as my rental will be paid off soon. I really do think the rates have to come down with the ownership costs being so much less than the cost of renting. It's likely the only thing keeping them up is the fact that so few people can qualify for a mortgage. But as of right now, rents are going up and there is no shortage of people looking to rent. Believe what you want, but that does not change the facts.

39   Patrick   2012 Oct 14, 2:15am  

soopercommuter says

Down here buying is currently WAY, WAY cheaper than renting.

Can you give an example with my calculator?

40   AlexS   2012 Oct 14, 3:45am  

So the best case scenario to convert it into rental and recoup your $175K downpayment in 15 years, 30 years if you include maintanence/fixing on that huge house?

I don't think this is a good deal.

41   Philistine   2012 Oct 14, 4:24am  

I'm still waiting to hear where this house is. In LA, $875k barely buys you a 3/2 in an okay zipcode--certainly not with acreage and horsies.

42   Raw   2012 Oct 14, 6:42am  

War says

LieWog is a known liar and misrepresenter.

The truth?

Rental rates are falling across the board when measured in price per square foot.

DO NOT buy housing now. Spread the word.

Do you realize if investors stop buying there would be less homes available for renting, and rental rates would rise? If you want rents to fall you should be busy convincing investors to buy.

43   Raw   2012 Oct 14, 7:06am  

War says

Do you realize that housing demand is at 15 year lows and falling?

Do you realize housing is NEVER an investment and always depreciates?

Do you realize "War" is "Raw" spelt backwards?
I use facts, you use BS.

44   mell   2012 Oct 14, 8:24am  

Yup says

Housing is the new American stock market, a bunch of "Investors" buying, with average Joe American saying nope not this time......

Hehe - nice word. There's always "something" that can only go up, but that "something" gets recycled every decade or so. It was tech in 99, then housing/stocks until 2008, then stocks again after turning on the printing presses and now that the stock market is trading mostly sideways again it's housing's turn again.

45   Raw   2012 Oct 14, 11:06am  

War says

LieWog.... the lying coward.

ROFL LMAO LOL LOL
Look who's talking.

46   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2012 Oct 14, 11:41am  

Damn I ever so hope Romney is telling the truth when he says he will cap deductions at $20 or $25K for federal income tax returns.

OP would still get his interest deduction, but no state tax deduction, no property tax deduction, no other deductions.

Gaming of the system by high income and wealthy people has gone on long enough.

47   CashWillCrash   2012 Oct 15, 1:48am  

Well done PockyClipsNow! For the next 5 years you will save $24k / year versus renting a comparable property = you save around $125k already in the first few years and therefore recoup most of your down payment. Besides that you now have a really happy girlfriend and if (God forbid!) for any reason your sexy girlfriend leaves you later on you will be in good shape as an owner of a horse property to quickly find a replacement for her. Just don't depend too much on the option to refinance later on, that was promised in the past to all subprime borrowers and made them only loose their home. There is quiet a possibility that your home in 5 years from now will have drop from $875k down to $700k or so, leaving you with no equity, but if you got another $100k cash or so to drop in the bucket you might be able to refinance. The reason I say the value might drop is because as we all know we are right now in an artificial market manipulated by banks and government. Maybe this will change sometime in the future (? or maybe not?)

48   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Oct 15, 2:11am  

Good luck to you in 5 years when your monthly turns into $6500/mth and the bank isn't returning your calls. This will be great timing, because you will probably be getting about $1500/mth in unemployment insurance, so all will be good.

49   Bigsby   2012 Oct 15, 2:43am  

War says

Bigsby,

You, Roberto and LIEWog have long since been established as liars.

And if Darrell in Phoenix says it...

50   Bigsby   2012 Oct 15, 2:50am  

Reader says

What all other? I don't know what your reading or intellectual skill level is at either that .pdf states a number of major cities not just three in decline. It lists six major citieis in decline out of eleven, that is a majority.

It's called an example, not a reference to his pdf, an out-of-date pdf at that (and it lists 10 cities not 11 - perhaps it is you who needs to improve your reading skills).

And explain to me what is happening to prices nationally. What does the Case-Shiller index say about house prices?

51   Bigsby   2012 Oct 15, 2:55am  

War says

1) The data is quarterly. It's only 3 months old. And you ran from it like a coward 3 months ago.

2) RENTAL RATES ARE FALLING in price per square foot IRRESPECTIVE OF LOCATION.

3) You are LYING to the public about housing. That is why you are known as LIEWog.

And what should we know you as? Darrell Not in Phoenix?

52   Bigsby   2012 Oct 15, 3:00am  

War says

I'm glad you like it.

It shows rental rates falling in the majority of cities.

why run from it?

There are only ten cities in the US? I thought it was bigger.

53   Bigsby   2012 Oct 15, 3:04am  

War says

Bigsby says

There are only ten cities in the US? I thought it was bigger.

Liewog...... tsk tsk.

So it's not just your own name that you are confused about.

54   Bigsby   2012 Oct 15, 3:13am  

War says

Now LieWog.... it indeed show falling rental rates in the majority of cities.

Your stunts and lies grow larger by the day.

So you use data from a report 6 months ago that shows the national average went up 4.4%, and you focus on the fact that rents declined in 6 cities. OK. Maybe you can explain why those 6 cities are more important than the national average.

55   37108605   2012 Oct 15, 3:47am  

Bigsby says

And explain to me what is happening to prices nationally. What does the Case-Shiller index say about house prices?

I am not concerned about "pricing" in the sales market because I know anyone can ask anything for their real estate like any other for sale item. Also a few grossly overpriced properties can and will skew an average like mad.

The listed prices both for sale and rentals will adjust, as they always do but what is going down is going down (no owner has a pecunary interest in a stat of something going down in price,) while fact is that stats showing upward movement can and are often manipulated for pecunary reasons.

It is clear to me what has and is happening, and that stated I personally am not buying any real estate right now. I do feel property has a way to go down. I feel rents are grossly inflated.

57   Bigsby   2012 Oct 15, 3:52am  

Reader says

I am not concerned about "pricing" in the sales market because I know anyone can ask anything for their real estate like any other for sale item. Also a few grossly overpriced properties can and will skew an average like mad.

The listed prices both for sale and rentals will adjust, as they always do but what is going down is going down (no owner has a pecunary interest in a stat of something going down in price,) while fact is that stats showing upward movement can and are often manipulated for pecunary reasons.

It is clear to me what has and is happening, and that stated I personally am not buying any real estate right now. I do feel property has a way to go down. I feel rents are grossly inflated.

Rents may or may not be 'grossly inflated' and the same for house prices, but that is irrelevant to War's claims of falling rental prices that you were defending. His own link from 6 months ago shows rents are rising nationally.

58   Bigsby   2012 Oct 15, 3:55am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

For a lot of my high tech friends who bought in 2006-2007, yes it did. They were forced to go back to being renters. All the talk about owning gives you flexibility to paint the walls, put up pictures, etc. etc. Owning can bite you in the ass so hard you'll never be able to sit down again. As a bay area renter/ multiple owner in other countries, I see the owner greed and the damage it causes. Go ahead and throw good money after bad. Just don't be surprised if all this happens again. I promise I won't say "I told you so".

Obviously housing can bite you on the arse if you buy at the peak of a huge bubble. However, that's not what we are talking about now.

59   37108605   2012 Oct 15, 3:59am  

Bigsby says

Rents may or may not be 'grossly inflated' and the same for house prices, but that is irrelevant to War's claims of falling rental prices that you were defending. His own link from 6 months ago shows rents are rising nationally.

I am not talking about national averages. I have already made clear I don't believe in them. I am claiming what I see against what is out there on a case by case and region by region basis.

60   Bigsby   2012 Oct 15, 4:01am  

Reader says

Bigsby says

Rents may or may not be 'grossly inflated' and the same for house prices, but that is irrelevant to War's claims of falling rental prices that you were defending. His own link from 6 months ago shows rents are rising nationally.

I am not talking about national averages. I have already made clear I don't believe in them. I am claiming what I see against what is out there on a case by case and region by region basis.

What?

61   37108605   2012 Oct 15, 4:07am  

Bigsby says

What?

I guess you need to re-read it a few more times. War's claims of falling rental prices in the majority of major cities (as far as I know he listed three) but those all listed there are eleven shows six cities have declined and that is supported by the .pdf. There is nothing to dispute on that issue.

62   Bigsby   2012 Oct 15, 4:17am  

Reader says

I guess you need to re-read it a few more times. War's claims of falling rental prices in the majority of major cities (as far as I know he listed three) but those all listed there are eleven shows six cities have declined and that is supported by the .pdf. There is nothing to dispute on that issue.

There were 10 cities mentioned in that 6 month old report not 11. You focus on six cities because it supports your bearish take on real estate. That is a very questionable approach to take when 6 cities constitutes such a tiny fraction of the overall market. A more honest approach would be to accept the figures nationally with the caveat that there are some variations in particular markets. You cannot however take that data and try to spin it that rental rates are declining as War tries to do. That is obviously disingenuous.

63   Mobi   2012 Oct 15, 4:22am  

Pocky,

I understand where you come from and I may do similarl thing here (but with much lower price and risk.) But is it true you can ALWAYS mod the loan with an ARM?

PockyClipsNow says

Its way way closer to work. (that why its so much $)
Commute now is 30 to 60m now it will be 15 max.


Maintenance is a cost. Its been remodeled, so should be low.
Im not getting flood nor quake insurance. There is no mortgage insurance, i put 20% down.


Lender does not have right to go after other assets on purchase money loan in california. so max loss if the pocky clips happens is 175k + 3k in loan fees + all maintance. But it takes 2 years to foreclose so I could rent it at 4k per month for 2 years which is 96k in rents while I play the loan mod/pretend to short sale shuffle with the bank in that scenario.


Keep in mind the risk of renting is that prices will go up. (they just did, the bottom was in 2010 and 2011). We might revisit that bottom, but not in 2013 or 2014 there is simply no inventory.

64   bob2356   2012 Oct 15, 4:25am  

PockyClipsNow says

total: 2588
(im in 28% effective tax bracket so 2588 * .72 = 1863 'after tax write off payment')
Add fire ins of 129 per month and total pmt after tax write off = $1992

You have to add back in the amount of taxes saved from the standard deduction since you would get it no matter whether you bought a house or not. About 277 per month.

PockyClipsNow says

If rates spike in 5 years I will simply pay off the loan, refi, or get a loan mod - no worries here.

So if you have 700k in the bank to pay it off why not just pay cash and put 2k a month in the bank rather than giving it away. If you are in the 28% bracket you would have to make almost 3k a month to net 2k a month after taxes on your 700k. That means that you have to make 5.4% (really, really good returns in today's market) on your 700k year in and year out to break even. That also doesn't include any earnings from the 2k a month going in.

Sorry but I really don't understand your math or your statement that you could just pay it off, implying you have 700k in the bank, is incorrect.

Where in LA are people selling estate homes with acreage for horses at 875k? Just curious.

65   37108605   2012 Oct 15, 4:27am  

I believe there were eleven however if ten I will stand corrected but note as an aside if ten then the case for six in decline makes the case even stronger.

On the issue of fractions, yes as I stated I don't care about national averages. I am only looking seriously at local regional issues on a case by case basis. There are just too many factors that come into play for anyone trying to claim rising anything without equal proof because again pecuniary interest is on them rising not declining. As far as I have seen War has listed the cities clearly he states are declining and has shown proof that they are indeed declining. It would surely be disingenuous to say otherwise from what I have read. Am I missing something?

66   Bigsby   2012 Oct 15, 4:45am  

Reader says

I believe there were eleven however if ten I will stand corrected but note as an aside if ten then the case for six in decline makes the case even stronger.

You have the link. You can see how many cities were mentioned. And it doesn't make your case stronger. The proportion of cities mentioned that had declining rentals over that period is irrelevant when talking about overall rates. I could do a similar report and only include the 4 cities mentioned there that had an increase in rental rates. And lo and behold suddenly 100% of places covered have rental increases. What does that mean as an indicator of rates overall? Nothing, and as I asked before, what exactly would your response be to such an article?

67   dublin hillz   2012 Oct 15, 4:46am  

For someone to say that rents are falling "irrespective of location" should put them on a 3 strikes and you are out list. This sort of lunacy is not conducive to learning or debate.

68   Bigsby   2012 Oct 15, 4:48am  

Reader says

On the issue of fractions, yes as I stated I don't care about national averages. I am only looking seriously at local regional issues on a case by case basis. There are just too many factors that come into play for anyone trying to claim rising anything without equal proof because again pecuniary interest is on them rising not declining. As far as I have seen War has listed the cities clearly he states are declining and has shown proof that they are indeed declining. It would surely be disingenuous to say otherwise from what I have read. Am I missing something?

Yes, you are missing something. War makes post after post generalizing out his claims. He says rents and prices are cratering. He may sometimes mention specific places in his posts but as a whole he talks in generalities, and if you don't see that, then you aren't reading his posts.

« First        Comments 29 - 68 of 412       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions   gaiste