patrick.net

Not much supply in the next 4-6 months. Notice of default is down 50% YoY, and last year NOD was also low due to the robo-signing scandal. Real estate agent will be hurting in the next 6 months. How do you buy or sell when there is no inventory. :)

Sean O'Toole of Foreclosureradar mentioned that there will not ba a wave of foreclosures since late 2009. People were skeptical of his comment, but it turns out Sean has been right 3 years in a row. Sean recently stated that the housing inventory will remain low for the foreseeable future. It's good if you got in housing market in the last couple of years.

You can make a lot of money if you know when the housing inventory will be increased. :)

Next year, people will be getting 1099's for discharged debt again, lowering their likelihood to sell.
I suspect that the supply constriction will be sustained until sale values will approach the senior loan debt, and perhaps to the point where the second is in the money.
At that point, more NODs will go out, fueling short-sale propositions.
Increases in inventory tend to depress prices, as do higher interest rates. Being able to take advantage of either would be profitable.

There will be tight inventory for a long time, everyone can see that.
Its Obamas plan to 'put a floor under house prices' (exact quote) and he has succeeded.

Democrats rejoice! Your guy is doing what he said he would.
Yay high house prices, go, go, go! /sarcasm

War says

There are 20-30 MILLION excess empty houses in the US today.

I thought there were only 50+ million housing units total.... or not too many more than that. Though I guess it's got to me more for 300 million people.

Anyone know the correct number?

GregFielding says, "I thought there were only 50+ million housing units total.... or not too many more than that. Though I guess it's got to me more for 300 million people."

Given approximately 400 million people in the US, 50 million housing units (assuming apartments and condos count individually) would mean that an average of eight people live in each American house. Personally I don't know anyone with a household that size, so even if you count all the immigrants living six families to a garage, the math still doesn't work. Not unless there's a ton of people living in caves or under bridges.
A lot of people live one or two people to a unit. Figure 60million kids, leaves 340 million adults at say 2 or 3 per unit, gives us 115-170 million units just to meet demand.

War says, "130 MILLION houses in the US today..... and growing."

Assuming that number is correct, then at my lower number of 115million needed to meet demand, we have 15 million "excess" housing units.

War says

Quigley says

War says, "130 MILLION houses in the US today..... and growing."

Assuming that number is correct, then at my lower number of 115million needed to meet demand, we have 15 million "excess" housing units.

Census Bureau shows 20-30 MILLION excess empty housing units.

Just take a drive around and look. Empty houses everywhere.

And I suppose you have a link for that particular piece of 'data'. Quite the figure. And quite the range.

Bigsby you are such a troll.
This site is for people who are trying to figure out the housing market and make wise financial decisions. Not for people who just come and make snarky comments without any possible redeeming value. If you have any actual information or any reasonable speculation even to share, then please do so. If it's just more of the same: dissing on everyone who posts things that go against your pro-housing pro-realtor, pro-status-quo agenda, then kindly stfu.

Quigley says

Bigsby you are such a troll.

This site is for people who are trying to figure out the housing market and make wise financial decisions. Not for people who just come and make snarky comments without any possible redeeming value. If you have any actual information or any reasonable speculation even to share, then please do so. If it's just more of the same: dissing on everyone who posts things that go against your pro-housing pro-realtor, pro-status-quo agenda, then kindly stfu.

How is it trolling to ask for a link to an outlandish claim? It's not speculation or made up information I'm interested in, it's facts. I'm not pro-housing or pro-realtor or whatever next you want to claim. Show me where I've been actively promoting housing. I'll be waiting. That doesn't mean I can't see through War's complete and utter nonsense. It's obviously a good time to buy in some places and still expensive in others. And what the hell has all that got to do with an actual troll like War posting up a bullshit piece of information? And no, why the hell should I stfu?

War/Darrell/Realtors... you're a known and proven user of Hotspot Shield or variation thereof and a repeated deleter of your own posts.

there will be more foreclosures after the election when another recession hits.

ptiemann says

I read last week that in the SF Bay Area, there are still millions defaulting every month, should be a million of additional inventory per month. So by the end of 2013, we should have 50 million empty houses, it's better to rent another year, I predict massive craters in those forced REO sales. If you think buying is cheaper than renting today, you will be ecstatic to see prices slashed another 50% or more.. thanks to even lower rates, principal and interest on a 15 year amortizing loan will cost less than the property tax OR insurance. Read the interview that Warren B. gave last week, he spells it all out there!
Again, this prediction is not for Phoenix or Oklahoma, but the exuberantly overpriced San Francisco Bay Area. Rest assured, the patient renters will be rewarded, only 1 more year to wait! And what does a small rent increase matter when you can save so much more 12-14 months from now!

Aaah sarcasm!!

US population: 314,621,923
http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html

Household size: 2.6
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14942047/ns/technology_and_science-science/t/census-us-household-size-shrinking/

We need about 121M housing units

Population growth: 0.9% per year.
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=24&c=us&l=en

To fill-up needs we need about 1M new housing units per year plus... some to been demolished.

@REpro

The number warren buffet uses for replacement homes is 600K. 1.6M homes needed per year total. 1M for new families/immigration, 600K for replacements.

REpro says

To fill-up needs we need about 1M new housing units per year plus... some to been demolished.

1 million+ just to keep up with population increase.
Another 1.5 million or so to replace old homes.
Add to that homes that get destroyed in fires etc, and places like Detroit that simply get abandoned - you will have close to 3 million new housing units that need to be built.
In the last 5 years the number of new homes built has been pathetic. No wonder building stocks are going through the roof.

War says

Why are any houses needed when there are 20-30 MILLION excess empty housing units in the US?

Those mutual funds that have been buying up building stocks think otherwise. They should know better.

pkennedy says

The number warren buffet uses for replacement homes is 600K. 1.6M homes needed per year total. 1M for new families/immigration, 600K for replacements.

Assuming we have ONLY 16M+ units in excess inventory, developers should close doors and stop building for 10 straight years. Obviously it won’t happen, so expect more Detroit-like places in the future.

pkennedy says

@REpro

The number warren buffet uses for replacement homes is 600K. 1.6M homes needed per year total. 1M for new families/immigration, 600K for replacements.

IIRC, it's about 1.2M new single family homes and 400 new units of apartment are required annually to keep up with the population growth & replacements.

REpro says

pkennedy says

The number warren buffet uses for replacement homes is 600K. 1.6M homes needed per year total. 1M for new families/immigration, 600K for replacements.

Assuming we have ONLY 16M+ units in excess inventory, developers should close doors and stop building for 10 straight years. Obviously it won’t happen, so expect more Detroit-like places in the future.

We will always have about 5M-6M vacant units for recreational, seasonal and occasional use; and about 2M units vacant due to being for sale. The true vacant units for rent are always lower than reported. Typically, we are at full capacity when vacancy is at 5%-6%. I believe a healthy market should have 8%-9% vacancy.

Let's do the math for fun. 10% vacancy = 13M vacant units, not 20M-30M.

Thanks for proving my point. The full capacity is at 5% vacancy. Looks like the RE market always makes a nice run up and over-build every time we get down to 5% vacancy. This happened in the mid 50's, early 70's and early 80's.

The market made a nice run-up and over-built again after we got down to 7% vacancy in the mid 90's. Is 7% vacancy the new norm for full capacity? It's interesting that the rental market got hot even when we're at close to 10% vacancy rate. Could it be that the vacancy units are in a middle of nowhere? Could it be explained that the vacancy in the big cities are lower than the national average figure? :)

E-man says

Could it be explained that the vacancy in the big cities are lower than the national average figure? :)

This is correct. When I am checking multifamily, in Middle of US vacancy in buildings over 30 y. old can go easy to 20-30% because tenants have ability to move to newer developments. In big cities where is job and building restrictions, vacancy rate is often below 5%.

REpro says

This is correct. In big cities where is job and building restrictions, vacancy rate is often below 5%.

Wow. This explains the recent spike in rent.

It's interesting that the homebuilders & developers keep making the same mistake over and over again. We wait until the supply dries up, then we start to build, then over-build, then we crash, and the cycle starts all over again.

Thx for the info though.

E-man says

It's interesting that the homebuilders & developers keep making the same mistake over and over again. We wait until the supply dries up, then we start to build, then over-build, then we crash, and the cycle starts all over again.

That is just human nature in any business. Someone makes a ton of money in something and then everybody thinks it is a sure thing and jumps in . This mini "boom" we just have to wait and see if the early ones are the pioneers or just the first lemmings.

033,

I just ran some numbers for the City of San Jose.

Last quarter,

2,220 - total SFH & condo sales
1,498 - regular sales including flip properties
176 - REO/Bank Owned sales
546 - Short sales

The last 3 months,

379 properties were foreclosed. Out of this number,
197 properties were bought by investors.
182 properties wer taken back by the bank.

There are currently 1,496 properties that are in foreclosure process. Note: Some of these properties will be lost to short sale. Some will get a loan mod. Some will be bought by investors at the steps, and some will be taken back by the bank. A tiny fraction will reinstate their loan.

There are currently 934 properties that have received their NOD. Some properties will be absorbed by short sale. Some will get a loan mod. Some will make it to the courthouse steps. A very small percentage will reinstate their loan.

Combine the above two numbers, we have 2,430 properties, which represent over 3 months worth of inventory for San Jose. Given the market can only absorb about 1/3 of distress properties at a time without a collapse in home prices, that represent about 10 months worth of distress housing inventory. :)

War says

Just take a drive around and look. Empty houses everywhere.

YMMV

E-man, do you have figures for SoCal?

Goran_K says

E-man, do you have figures for SoCal?

Wow, Irvine home prices are expensive. It seems like you guys have more condos & townhomes than us here in San Jose.

Last quarter,

630 = total sales for SFH & condos/townhomes
470 = regular sales
119 = short sales
41 = bank owned sales

The last 3 months,

69 properties were foreclosed.
45 were taken back by the banks.
24 were sold to investors.

There are a total 534 properties that are in the process of foreclosure. 319 received their notice of trustee sale. 215 received a notice of default.

Your market is up about 10% YoY on the median price and 14% on average price. Your active housing inventory is about 3 months. Your market is hot, but not as hot as the Bay Area. We have just over 1 month of active housing inventory.

That's all I got. Nite nite.

E-man says

Wow, Irvine home prices are expensive. It seems like you guys have more condos & townhomes than us here in San Jose.

Last quarter,

630 = total sales for SFH & condos/townhomes
470 = regular sales
119 = short sales
41 = bank owned sales

The last 3 months,

69 properties were foreclosed.
45 were taken back by the banks.
24 were sold to investors.

There are a total 534 properties that are in the process of foreclosure. 319 received their notice of trustee sale. 215 received a notice of default.

Your market is up about 10% YoY on the median price and 14% on average price. Your active housing inventory is about 3 months. Your market is hot, but not as hot as the Bay Area. We have just over 1 month of active housing inventory.

That's all I got. Nite nite.

Thanks for the numbers E-man. Even if we don't quite agree on where the market will go, it's good to cross check, and examine all the data that is available. Cheers.

Wow, 534 properties in some process of foreclosure. Remember, Redfin only shows 381 active listings (or about 1.5 months of inventory).

Very interesting market.

Goran_K says

Very interesting market.

Indeed. It is very hard to get correct inventory snap shot. I only gauge the market by sale price of the mid to high tier(low end is highly rigged by investors/flippers) - of course by redfin data.

bubblesitter says

Indeed. It is very hard to get correct inventory snap shot. I only gauge the market by sale price of the mid to high tier(low end is highly rigged by investors/flippers) - of course by redfin data.

It's very difficult and I live a few blocks from Corelogic. :)

But E-man's numbers sort of strengthen my argument that shadow inventory isn't some fantasy, it's a legit threat to true market recovery.

War says

In fact the massive unsold empty inventory lends a boost to a market recovery.

Yeah, that's kind of what I meant. I hope they liquidate it soon.

Goran_K says

Yeah, that's kind of what I meant. I hope they liquidate it soon.

A massive spike in prices in stock market and a 1% to 2% interest rate hike could send this housing market into serious trouble - don't forget the fact that post bubble buyers are surviving by refi'ing their mortgages.