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How the tax situation will shake out from my perspective
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2012 Nov 13, 3:08pm 18,420 views 51 comments
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Dan8267
2012 Nov 14, 2:16pm
the rich will be soaked, the only question is how much and will they drag the middle class along with it.
The Republicans are obviously going to try to make it as painful for the middle class as possible. However, if they don't capitulate, then defense industry spending plummets and all that sucking from the government teat that red states have been doing for the past 60 years suddenly stops. That means mass unemployment in states like Montana and Wyoming.
Red states get a whole lot of jobs at that teat. If republicans senators and representatives cut off that teat, they won't be re-elected in 2014. Those coming up for election have got to be scared. Those not coming up for election might even be recalled if they let those automatic spending cuts occur.
Here's an example. Instead of dropping $40k to buy a new car. I use $40k to buy a condo in San Jose for $150k and rent it for $1,600/month.
You must be high. Where are you going to buy a condo in San Jose for $150k that rents for $1600/month?
The bush tax cut will be particularly painful for 100K earner
Yeah, i calculated my taxes will increase just about $6000 if the bush tax cuts and payroll tax cuts expire. It will suck, but everyone will be in the same boat atleast...
what's that saying.. misery loves company... Don't have to worry about Keeping Up With the Joneses... when they get a big tax bill too.
That $6K i would definitely pump back into the economy if i had it.. Probably would upgrade the windows or a/c in the house. Vacation plans are on hold until wife graduates, but I'd imagine $6000 is a high proportion of discretionary income for dual $50K income household.
The overall economy would take a massive hit, no doubt about it.
http://interactive.taxfoundation.org/taxcalc/#calculator
Nice little tax calculator i found...
Punch in the Republican/ Democrat scenarios... voila.
FuckTheMainstreamMedia
2012 Nov 14, 3:53pm
The bush tax cut will be particularly painful for 100K earner
Yeah, i calculated my taxes will increase just about $6000 if the bush tax cuts and payroll tax cuts expire. It will suck, but everyone will be in the same boat atleast...
what's that saying.. misery loves company... Don't have to worry about Keeping Up With the Joneses... when they get a big tax bill too.
That $6K i would definitely pump back into the economy if i had it.. Probably would upgrade the windows or a/c in the house. Vacation plans are on hold until wife graduates, but I'd imagine $6000 is a high proportion of discretionary income for dual $50K income household.
The overall economy would take a massive hit, no doubt about it.
Yes paying more in taxes does suck.
What sucks worse is seeing someone who is legitimately rich be able to shelter the majority of their income and pay little federal income tax(or in one case I know of, none).
marcus
2012 Nov 14, 10:07pm
Clinton tax rates aren't a "fucking over".
I know. But I was talking about politics.
You're probably right, but what I'm saying is that if Obama wants to only have taxes go back up (for now) on high incomes, letting all the Bush tax cuts expire, and then reintroducing a middle class tax cut to congress would be the way to do it.
IF he can't get it, then the republican house can take the blame for insisting that it not happen unless the high income people get theirs too.
lostand confused
2012 Nov 14, 10:24pm
Well, don't you think the marital rate has been declining is the result of our tax policy? Why marry and be taxed more?
Nah, it is because of outrageous divorce laws. you could lose everything and then some. Hulk Hogan had to pay 70% of his fortune and now his ex is shacked up with a 20 yr old in his house. Or in these horror stories in MA-where a woman who makes 95k a year is getting massive amounts of alimony and she wants to retire. The guy turned 67 and wants to retire-but the judge says no and asks him to keep working and take part time jobs and keep paying alimony to his ex who makes 95k a year.
http://www.bostonmagazine.com/articles/2009/06/till-death-do-us-pay/
While MA has since reformed their laws, in CA if you are married for 10 yrs or more, the court has jurisdiction over you for life- till death do us part has changed to till death do you pay.
lostand confused
2012 Nov 15, 12:16am
All I can say is that choose your mate carefully. You have no one to blame but yourself. I'm more than happy to give my wife all of it.
That is fine-but that is a choice. You can choose to spend all your money on a trip to the moon. But the govt gets into it and makes mandates. People change and move on. When "traditional" ideas of marraige and genders have moved on-then so should traditional laws that were created when women were considered helpless and just one rung above a child.
FortWayne
2012 Nov 15, 12:19am
If they took the money and paid off the debts it would be fine. Because every generation should pay off their own debts.
But if they'll take it and spent it on unions and other politically connected friends than I am against it.
lostand confused
2012 Nov 15, 12:36am
If they took the money and paid off the debts it would be fine. Because every generation should pay off their own debts.
But if they'll take it and spent it on unions and other politically connected friends than I am against it.
Yes , lets see where it goes. If they crack down on the prison guards union -that would be great.
http://www.cacs.org/ca/article/44
Again, it's the stupid laws and tax system that discourage people to be married although in CA we have common law marriage.
WRONG. California does not recognize common law marriage.
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Most people don't realize that the bush tax cut will expire Jan 1, 2013. With Obama just newly re-elected and public sentiment, the rich will be soaked, the only question is how much and will they drag the middle class along with it.
In 2010, Obama was in a weaker position, weaker economy, political party was losing ground and he himself was mindful about his own re-election. The republicans was able to extend the Bush tax cuts for all for two more years. Obama, as of 2012 and 2010 wanted them to be extended for the 200/250K household. In 2010, he failed his goal.
That scenerio will not shake itself out in 2012. The Bush tax cut will expire. As openly stated, Obama wants to extend it for the middle class just as he stated for as long as he was president. It's a matter of politics whether he can succeed in extending it for the middle class. There is no scenerio that the rich will not pay more, its just a matter of winning other concessions by dragging the middle class to dilute their prospective pain.
The bush tax cut will be particularly painful for 100K earner which will lose the 10%-15% tax bracket and will end up paying approx 5K more in income tax. Combine that with the expiration of the payroll tax expiration for another 2K and we are talking about 7% gone. For a 300K household, it will cost about 7K-8K as well, but 7K-8K now is 2.5%. The R knows this will anger the 100K earners so perhaps they are banking on don't do it because we will hurt you more strategy.
The bush tax cut will be painful for the wealthy as well, not so much the tax bracket as it is 3-4% across the board, but will be felt in the treatment of capital gains and investment income. Dividends will be particularly painful but capital gains will go up to from 15% to 20%. In the end, that 13% ETR Romney enjoys will be more like 19%, that just increased his tax by 50% and tough to avoid unless we are talking illegal type stuff. They can of course buy tax exempt municipal bonds which will benefit state and local governments.
So I guess my advice to Obama, not that he would pay attention is, do not negotiate with the R's demand to dilute it down. Expiring tax cut will cost me 10K more or maybe a 20% tax increase. Expiring the tax cut for the rich will cost the Romney's 50% on a much higher base.
If it comes down to it, just let the entire damn Bush tax cut expire. There's nothing the house can do to stop that.
Based on my understanding of how the rich works and invests, they will still go after every dollar possible and treat business as usual, stock market will adjust and will be fine. The theory that people/business will stop investing in America is laughable. Business will always invest in America, just as you will see Mercedes, Samsung and other exploit this market. It's a 15T GDP, market business will never ignore America.
#politics