patrick.net

he's been saying that every year so eventually he will be right.

broken clock...

Mark D says

he's been saying that every year so eventually he will be right.

broken clock...

That's not quite true - he nailed the first crash within a very close range. Granted, after that he has been a bit overeager in forecasting the next "crash" or bond crisis, but it looks like we are on track. Also the economy has been in the toilet forever now and there are no signs that it is getting better - latest job and consumer spending numbers as well es economic indices are ugly. It's gonna be a choppy December unless they come to a bipartisan solution that actually addresses the deficit very fast.

I don't know. A lot of what he's saying makes sense.

- Weak employment figures
- Very weak hiring forecast
- Lower than expected earnings reports
- Dollar being devalued
- Fiscal cliff coming
- Taxes rising

Instead of attacking him as a person, why don't you guys actually debate the ideas he presents? The theoy he puts forth seems sound and logical (not that our government plays by rules of logic).

Those factors he brings up don't say anything to me besides crash, but I'm sure Roberto has another opinion with his heavily invested portfolio in Phoenix real estate. :)

Goran_K says

I don't know. A lot of what he's saying makes sense.

- Weak employment figures

- Very weak hiring forecast

- Lower than expected earnings reports

- Dollar being devalued

- Fiscal cliff coming

- Taxes rising

Instead of attacking him as a person, why don't you guys actually debate the ideas he presents? The theoy he puts forth seems sound and logical (not that our government plays by rules of logic).

Those factors he brings up don't say anything to me besides crash, but I'm sure Roberto has another opinion with his heavily invested portfolio in Phoenix real estate. :)

he has been selling gold for the past few decades and he invests his clients' money oversea. what do think he would say? the negative news or the positive news?

"Linus has been almost as accurate predicting the great pumkin!"
this is an awesome statement

http://youtu.be/xiSIQzwIPzQ

edit: how do you embed videos here?

Peter Schiff has simply been saying that an imminent crash is coming EVERY YEAR for as long as I can remember.

Yes, he will predict it "correctly" for any given crash if you simply find what he was saying the previous year!

He swore up and down that there would be no stock recovery, no housing recovery, and that we were going to see massive inflation.

He's just a doom and gloomer, not someone who is actually good at forecasting economic trends.

I've debated his 'ideas' for years. He was right in 2006 because he was saying the same thing in 2006 that he has been saying for the last 15 years: "The US is doomed because Americans and their government are morons. Wah wah wah I don't want to pay taxes".

Kevin says

He swore up and down that there would be no stock recovery, no housing recovery, and that we were going to see massive inflation.

He's just a doom and gloomer, not someone who is actually good at forecasting economic trends.

I've debated his 'ideas' for years. He was right in 2006 because he was saying the same thing in 2006 that he has been saying for the last 15 years: "The US is doomed because Americans and their government are morons. Wah wah wah I don't want to pay taxes".

We have massive inflation (I call anything 2% and over substantial and 3% and over massive as it kills joe sixpack compounded over the years while his wages lag) and the economy has been looking doomy and gloomy for years, 1 in 7 Americans on food-stamps. I haven't researched his actual performance for his clients and while it may not have been optima for a couple of years, the long term strategy of investing in precious metals and asian markets (other than china and japan) seems sound and, compared to the countless other hedge funds that actually blew up he is still in business and seemingly doing well.

mell says

We have massive inflation

Just because you say it doesn't make it true. Inflation is not 'massive', even if you go by the shadowstats numbers.

Schiff's investment record is mixed to negative. He makes far more money from his non investment activities than he ever made running EPC. His EPC clients lost their asses in 2008 / 2009 but he got paid management fees anyway.

Schiff is great at making money for himself. So is Suze Orman. Neither of them are providing advice that will actually help you.

If you want to make money from investing, follow people with a long-term proven track record like Warren Buffet, not people trying to sell an image.

Kevin says

If you want to make money from investing, follow people with a long-term proven track record like Warren Buffet, not people trying to sell an image.

I think it is generally a bad idea to follow anybody - esp. if you trade stocks and I have my own realm. I read about some dissatisfied EPC clients but I am not sure to what extend and if they still would maintain their stance should they have stayed with EPC. First rule of a hedge fund is to not blow up by hedging and then to make decent returns for its clients in the long run (averaged). Buffet has been around forever and IMO trades mostly on insider knowledge and influence lately, not that hard once you've become the 'oracle' and - more important - the president's buddy. But yeah, he started out small and his overall track record is def impressive. But as we all know, past performance does not guarantee future performance.

There aren't very many experts who have a better track record than Schiff. Nobody is perfect and trying to time an event is difficult for all economists. Everyone was calling gold a bubble for many years and now it's over 1,700 (was over 1,900). Schiff has been telling everyone to buy gold for the longest time.

We all know the economy is going to hit the fan within a couple of years. All this money printing and deficit spending is not going to have a soft landing.

Mark D says

he has been selling gold for the past few decades and he invests his clients' money oversea. what do think he would say? the negative news or the positive news?

So debate his ideas.

Why are you personally attacking him instead of the point he's making in the video?

He's painting a scenario where housing will crash based on the following factors:
- Weak employment figures
- Very weak hiring forecast
- Lower than expected earnings reports
- Dollar being devalued
- Fiscal cliff coming
- Taxes rising

Why do you think housing won't crash?

Goran_K says

Mark D says

he has been selling gold for the past few decades and he invests his clients' money oversea. what do think he would say? the negative news or the positive news?

So debate his ideas.

Why are you personally attacking him instead of the point he's making in the video?

He's painting a scenario where housing will crash based on the following factors:

- Weak employment figures

- Very weak hiring forecast

- Lower than expected earnings reports

- Dollar being devalued

- Fiscal cliff coming

- Taxes rising

Why do you think housing won't crash?

personally attacked? when?

i already "debated" his ideas. "a broken clock is right twice a day." that's all that was needed to reveal his fraudulent scheme.

so you believe him? did you buy any gold? can we see some purchase receipts? no?

ah that's right you doubt him too. just like everyone here! understand!

housing ALWAYS crashes, if you give it enough time...see what i mean?

I don't think that anyone on here actually thinks that the synthetic boom that the Fed and the government is creating will last, or end well. The thing is that nobody knows how long this game of musical chairs will go on for. I am pretty sure that they can keep the old gravy train running for a lot longer than many bears think. So what if it is a bad idea and bad policy? Nobody can do shit about it. Most of America is made up of house owners or people that have some stake in housing, and as such most of America wants the bubble to return.

Or maybe the economy really isn't as fucked as you doom and gloomers think and we're simply ending a recession.

Kevin says

Or maybe the economy really isn't as fucked as you doom and gloomers think and we're simply ending a recession.

Possible too. The numbers just don't make any damn sense, but I guess that being the world's reserve currency does allow more leeway in printing cash to pay our debts. We won't really know for another 10 years or so when a really big percentage of baby boomers start trying to retire on under-funded pensions and insolvent SS/medicare.

Given the fact that the interest on our debt alone outstrips tax revenue, I'd say that something needs to change. As of now, I am pretty sure that we won't see tax increases or spending cuts. The can will be kicked down the road. Maybe we'll get lucky and everyone will just quietly accept a lower standard of living and we won't have some sort of big bad financial event. Nobody knows for sure. Based just on the numbers though, things look pretty hairy. It'll be fun to see what sort of financial wizardry is unleashed to "fix" our problems.

bmwman91 says

Kevin says

Or maybe the economy really isn't as fucked as you doom and gloomers think and we're simply ending a recession.

Possible too. The numbers just don't make any damn sense, but I guess that being the world's reserve currency does allow more leeway in printing cash to pay our debts. We won't really know for another 10 years or so when a really big percentage of baby boomers start trying to retire on under-funded pensions and insolvent SS/medicare.

But a million other things could be different then.

Unless you've figured out a good way to take advantage of the negative stuff, and can time it, just being negative all the time does nothing but put you further and further behind financially. I guess you could sell books like some people but that's pretty hard.

If you believe what Schiff is saying, put your money where your mouth is. Short stocks. Buy gold. Invest in canned meat and handguns. Whatever.

If you don't, buy a house, buy some stocks, maybe take a vacation and enjoy life.

Most of the doom and gloomers around here just seem to be people who have no money and are trying to justify their inability to make any financial investments. They're saying the same things today that they were saying when I first created my account 3 and a half years ago, despite the whole world having changed so rapidly.

I agree with Schiff's general message, but as some have said, a broken clock is right twice a day. I am suspicious of anyone that starts claiming timelines for this stuff. Something is going to have to happen to settle the budget, but the can can be kicked down the road for longer than most perma-bears think.

Being bearish on the economy certainly does not guarantee that one will be behind financially. You just invest in different things, generally things like your own skills and education. I stay out of stocks and RE because I see it as the exact same thing as going to Las Vegas and plunking cash down on red. I do max out 401k contributions since my employer matches handsomely, but I have stuff allocated in large funds that are professionally managed because I have better things to do with my time than manage money. Living life, as you say, is top priority. My wife and I stash away almost 70% of our monthly net income, after 401k contributions. When we want vacations, toys, whatever, we pay cash. When we decide to get a house, we will be putting at least 50% down. People call having cash savings and no debt foolish because of inflation. The fact that this mentality is so rampant is all the reason I need to stay out of the "smart" investments. I COULD do what some on here are doing and buy up residential RE to rent out, but that would be a full time job. I already have one that pays a hell of a lot more than that, and knowing that I will not be able to maintain my income to the same age that someone with a bunch of house rentals will, I stash most of it away since I'll need it later in life. Same net effect, different approach.

Cash might be getting boned by inflation right now, but equities are too risky too, in my opinion. The market is heavily manipulated, and over-valued in my opinion. I make enough money right now that I don't really give a shit anyway. I could quit working and live off of my cash for the next 5-7 years if I wanted to with no changes to my quality of life. That's not part of the plan though.

I'd love to have a house (actually, just a garage). Woodworking, metalworking, speaker building, engine builds, beer brewing, etc would all be much easier to do in a house. Not having shared walls is sort of a big deal given my interest in building audio equipment too. But, I look around this place that I grew up and I refuse to be a part of the insanity that is rampant here again. Boom and bust, same shit different day. I'll continue hoarding cash and make my move when the time is right. The right time is certainly not now, and probably not for another 5 years with the way things are picking up. I have enough family in the area, with full machine shops and wood shops, that I can keep renting on the cheap while getting to partake in all of my hobbies while spending quality time with those that I care about. The rest of my generation can run around with their pants on fire having money-spending battles to buy overvalued houses over the next few years, and I'll either pick one up during the next bust or move elsewhere. My wife and I weren't ready to make a move 12 months ago and we obviously missed the bottom here. I fully intend to be self-employed in the next 10 years since that's a type of investment that is directly impacted by my own hard work and effort, unlike stocks and an overpriced house, so I have that to focus on anyway.

Being bearish about the economy does not mean that one doesn't have a good time in life. Some bears are miserable bitches, but so are lots of bulls that are constantly "managing their money."

Mark D says

i already "debated" his ideas. "a broken clock is right twice a day." that's all that was needed to reveal his fraudulent scheme.

That's not debating his ideas. That's simply being dismissive.

See, as much as you accuse others of being"doomers", you can't even properly address one single point of Schiff's theory in an intelligent manner.

What does that make you?

robertoaribas says

HousingBoom says

There aren't very many experts who have a better track record than Schiff.

ridiculous statement. In just 1 minute on youtube I posted 2 videos above with him making specific statements with dates. 100% wrong in both cases. Anybody who invested based on his advice got reamed.

I bought silver since 2009 because of Schiff. I am up over 100%. ;-)

HousingBoom says

lol. It was at $49 before it corrected. I'm still up over 100% as of today. Schiff is not a trader. Silver has been my first and only investment so far. Not very many people can say that they are up over 100%. Thank you Mr. Schiff

I'm also a silver investor.

+1 for not being a dumb sheep holding worthless fiat currency.

robertoaribas says

2002 full of shiff says dow below 2000... yeah... interest through the roof...

how well did any investor listening to this dipstick in 2002 do?

I did very well with gold and silver. WTF ar you talking about?

Billybigrig says

Even if he is off by one year lets say, there is still a lot risk to hang on until that last year.

What if he's off by 20? What if he's just totally wrong like he has been in every prediction except for one?

Goran_K says

He's painting a scenario where housing will crash based on the following factors:
- Weak employment figures
- Very weak hiring forecast
- Lower than expected earnings reports
- Dollar being devalued
- Fiscal cliff coming
- Taxes rising

In 2006 we had:

1. Low unemployment and it was trending lower as we approached 2007
2. Higher than expected earnings, with stocks trending higher as we approached 2007
3. Historically low taxes

2006 was also the peak for C/S.

Is the time to buy when everything is peaches and rosy?

Greenspan handed out plums to get people to plant carrots. Now benjamin bunny harvests their carrots while they get food stamps. Maybe he will use the carrots to motivate some smart new rabbits to do something interesting. Or feed the old rabbits so they don't off him. Most likely the carrots are rotting while he hoards them. I think they euphemistically refer to it as giving them 'the business cycle'.

Goran_K says

Mark D says

i already "debated" his ideas. "a broken clock is right twice a day." that's all that was needed to reveal his fraudulent scheme.

That's not debating his ideas. That's simply being dismissive.

See, as much as you accuse others of being"doomers", you can't even properly address one single point of Schiff's theory in an intelligent manner.

What does that make you?

doesn't look like you understood what was said. lets see some receipts first and we'll talk.

HousingBoom says

robertoaribas says

HousingBoom says

There aren't very many experts who have a better track record than Schiff.

ridiculous statement. In just 1 minute on youtube I posted 2 videos above with him making specific statements with dates. 100% wrong in both cases. Anybody who invested based on his advice got reamed.

I bought silver since 2009 because of Schiff. I am up over 100%. ;-)

you forgot to mention that he advised people to buy gold at $1900 as well.

Mark D says

HousingBoom says

robertoaribas says

HousingBoom says

There aren't very many experts who have a better track record than Schiff.

ridiculous statement. In just 1 minute on youtube I posted 2 videos above with him making specific statements with dates. 100% wrong in both cases. Anybody who invested based on his advice got reamed.

I bought silver since 2009 because of Schiff. I am up over 100%. ;-)

you forgot to mention that he advised people to buy gold at $1900 as well.

I think you're just jealous that I bought silver at $13 =) Keep hating!

HousingBoom says

Mark D says

HousingBoom says

robertoaribas says

HousingBoom says

There aren't very many experts who have a better track record than Schiff.

ridiculous statement. In just 1 minute on youtube I posted 2 videos above with him making specific statements with dates. 100% wrong in both cases. Anybody who invested based on his advice got reamed.

I bought silver since 2009 because of Schiff. I am up over 100%. ;-)

you forgot to mention that he advised people to buy gold at $1900 as well.

I think you're just jealous that I bought silver at $13 =) Keep hating!

no i'm not jealous. good for you if you made money on silver. but if you are a Schiff regular listener (I used to), you can't honestly say that you would make any money if you followed his advice 100% of the time. can you?

zesta says

In 2006 we had:

1. Low unemployment and it was trending lower as we approached 2007
2. Higher than expected earnings, with stocks trending higher as we approached 2007
3. Historically low taxes

2006 was also the peak for C/S.

Is the time to buy when everything is peaches and rosy?

So put it together zesta. 2006 lead to the biggest crash in RE history because of bubble pricing, and artificially giving away easy credit. 2012 has a dying economy, and the government is artificially propping up the credit markets by buying MBS.

Both booms, the big one, and the current mini-one were fueled by cheap money. Except a crash this time would be worse (as Peter points out) because of our weakened economy.

You're actually arguing Peter's point for him.

Mark D says

no i'm not jealous. good for you if you made money on silver. but if you are a Schiff regular listener (I used to), you can't honestly say that you would make any money if you followed his advice 100% of the time. can you?

I never listened to Schiff on a daily basis but from what I do know, he likes to invest against the US dollar. His investments will lose if the US dollar rallies.

HousingBoom says

I never listened to Schiff on a daily basis but from what I do know, he likes to invest against the US dollar. His investments will lose if the US dollar rallies.

Pretty much. That's why his gold call was so successful in early 2000. The U.S has been devaluing the dollar for over a decade.

Goran_K says

Both booms, the big one, and the current mini-one were fueled by cheap money. Except a crash this time would be worse (as Peter points out) because of our weakened economy.

So if you believe cheap money is the reason that you're predicting crash, then argue that point.

Obviously unemployment figures, hiring rates, corporate profits, tax rates don't have any bearing on which way you believe housing is going; you and Schiff are bearish either way.

zesta says

So if you believe cheap money is the reason that you're predicting crash, then argue that point.

Hey genius, that's SCHIFF's entire theory, not mine (though I agree with a lot of what he said). He thinks 1) There wil be a crash because of cheap money fueling home prices just like in 2006, AND 2)the crash will be WORSE because of those weak economic factors compared to 2006 (when the economy was relatively stronger). What about his theory do you agree/disagree with?

Did you even take the time to listen to the video, or did you just come in here to flirt with me?

Obviously unemployment figures, hiring rates, corporate profits, tax rates don't have any bearing on which way you believe housing is going; you and Schiff are bearish either way.

Unemployment has been high for 4 years, earnings reports are down, and taxes are rising.

Where DO YOU think that puts the housing market's future?

It just means the bailout will be even bigger this time.

Peter P says

It just means the bailout will be even bigger this time.

I highly doubt that. We would have a full on revolution if that happened. The first bailout lead to the Occupy Movement. A second might result in nation wide rioting.

Goran_K says

HousingBoom says

I never listened to Schiff on a daily basis but from what I do know, he likes to invest against the US dollar. His investments will lose if the US dollar rallies.

Pretty much. That's why his gold call was so successful in early 2000. The U.S has been devaluing the dollar for over a decade.

it's certainly stupid to believe in a guy who has been wrong every year since the crash. there have always bad news in the economy for past few years but do they lead to a crash as Schiff predicted every year? it's common sense.

if you actually listen to his show you can certainly tell he dumbs down his audience by telling them half truths most of the time. of course most of his audience do not realize that.

how there is a small chance that he may get it right this time, but that's only he's throwing out gloom & doom predictions every year so eventually he gets one right. it doesn't mean he has Nostradamus power.

now why would anyone believe in gloom & doom predictions from a long time GOLD SELLER is beyond me.

Are you actually going to address his points in the video or are you going to just trash the guy because he doesn't support your agenda of boosting housing?

Try to inject some intellectual thought into your post. What you're doing now is the equivalent to "we don't take kindly to your kind in these parts" for Patrick.net.

Goran_K says

Are you actually going to address his points in the video or are you going to just trash the guy because he doesn't support your agenda of boosting housing?

Try to inject some intellectual thought into your post. What you're doing now is the equivalent to "we don't take kindly to your kind in these parts" for Patrick.net.

i could say the same thing about you, you are trumping him up because he supports your housing agenda. see the irony?

you need to be able to comprehend what people have been saying before you can engage in any intelligent debate. it's hard to take you seriously when you keep missing the point: why would he be right this year when he has been wrong every single year since the crash? address that. show you are capable of an intelligent discussion.

Schiff is the typical anti-government nitwit and that ideological position is preventing him from understanding reality.

The reality of our situation is that the Feds have an IMMENSE amount of power to draw this process out a very very long time. I can't begin to describe all the BS they can bring to bear.

Note I didn't say "fix this". To do that will require the American people giving up this idea that we can get $6.5T in government spending with only $5T in taxes, and that's not a dream that's going to die easy.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=d5d

Complicating matters is that nearly all of the ROW is as screwed up as we are.

Even Germany is screwed in its own special way.

People think Japan is screwed but who the hell really knows. They had a $6B trade deficit last month -- something of a new experience for them -- but also had $12B net income from their foreign investments to pay for it. That's a tough problem to have, more money coming in than you know what to do with.

Bellingham Bill says

Schiff is the typical anti-government nitwit and that ideological position is preventing him from understanding reality.

exactly. this is what his listeners didn't take into account. if they looked up his family history they'll know why he's so anti-gov.

here's one example of his bias: go back to his podcasts during the last two weeks, find the one where he talks about Australia and Japan devaluing their currencies and listen to his spin on that. he's saying that they did that because they "felt bad" for the U.S when the reality was that they wanted to keep/boot their exports.

his position has always been that; the U.S gov is the most horrible gov on earth, the economy is facing an eminent crash (every year) and everywhere else is so much better.

i too was impressed by his prediction of the housing crash but the more one listens to his show, the more they can see his biases against the U.S.