patrick.net

Bellingham Bill says

my thinking on that is we will only see higher interest rates -- courtesy of the Fed at least -- to combat wage inflation.

ie never, unless something exogenous happens

Here is the problem. Record low interest rates will continue to boost asset prices until it cannot. Of course,it has just started in Japan. But the problem here can happen before that, if the people get fed up of high debt, and the increasing gap between CPI and wage inflation.

gsr says

Record low interest rates will continue to boost asset prices until it cannot.

Japan's interest rates are 2% now. There's no reason the Fed can't pull that gun out.

Low interest rates are simply because our economy has too much money in it!

This is counter-intuitive, I know, but the more money gets pushed into the economy the lower interest rates will be pushed.

The only way to reverse this is to get some velocity --and wage inflation -- in the lower 95% of the economy.

But our economy is structured to pull money from the 95%, not keep money within that sphere.

gsr says

if the people get fed up of high debt

Debt vs. the LL's rent increase. That's the gauntlet the masses have to run this decade and next.

Darrell In Phoenix says

Don't be silly. ALL manmade items depreciate. ALWAYS.

Not in nominal terms. Inflation can and does outpace any depreciation.

Like i've said and demonstrated about 10 times to you already.

We don't really know how long modern houses in California can last. Plenty put up in the 1920s through 1940s are still soldiering on fine.

Where's the "depreciation"? The roof might last 30-40 years, carpets need replacing, paint needs redoing, all the appliances will certainly need replacing. But on the whole, houses in California are pretty durable. And inflation in land values can easily outpace any depreciation of they physical components.

Darrell In Phoenix says

But do try. It's quit entertaining to watch you

me and the rest of the planet, LOL

it's safe to say that you are the most bizarre person I've ever come across on the internet.

I happen to agree with you that real estate valuations are a "construct" of the system as-it-is and not fixed in stone.

Should mortgage interest rates rocket to 20%, taxes double, unemployment explode, and/or gasoline triple, all that will take a big bite out of present valuations.

But should present conditions continue as they are, inflation is the order of the day.

Bellingham Bill says

Japan's interest rates are 2% now. There's no reason the Fed can't pull that gun out.

Low interest rates are simply because our economy has too much money in it!

This is counter-intuitive, I know, but the more money gets pushed into the economy the lower interest rates will be pushed.

This is mainly due to similar problems in other countries, and our reserve currency status. No one should expect the Fed increase rate, given the increasing amount of debt.

The only way to reverse this is to get some velocity --and wage inflation -- in the lower 95% of the economy.

But our economy is structured to pull money from the 95%, not keep money within that sphere.

gsr says

if the people get fed up of high debt

Debt vs. the LL's rent increase. That's the gauntlet the masses have to run this decade and next.

And this is why I said it cannot stay that way forever. It will have a reset. It is hard to say when and how it will happen. Contrary to the popular belief, lower tax rate did not cause this, and increasing taxes on 5% won't cure this.

I disagree that it will stay this way for another decade. This is not Japan. People are less docile.

Darrell In Phoenix says

unless you suspend the 2nd law of thermodynamics.

That's the nutiest thing you've posted, but.....

Bellingham Bill says

it's safe to say that you are the most bizarre person I've ever come across on the internet.

Darrel is a very normal, and predictable troll.

You address him, or her, and she responds with an attempt to hijack the thread.

Some trolls are paid, others just have a screen up for amusement.

gsr says

I disagree that it will stay this way for another decade. This is not Japan. People are less docile.

yes, one thing is certain is that we are not Japan. They're in semi-crisis in that they posted a $6B trade deficit for September, even though their ~$3T net asset position brought in $12B to compensate it. (Our trade deficit is ~$50B/mo and we're the #1 debtor nation by far)

It is Japan who owns $1T+ of our national debt, not the other way around.

I cannot pretend to see our future AT ALL. I don't know what's going to happen next month or next year politically.

I do think I have some larger understanding of the general trends involved.

But what can happen should we allow it is a "virtuous" debt/print cycle taking hold, where we maintain some semblance of an economy via the $40B/mo QE3 accreting into more massive money creation as borrowing/spend/saving cycle counteracts the general deflation going on.

The government's upcoming baby boom payments are going to be massively stimulative! 80 million people getting $20,000+ in free money from the government! Yowza!

Darrell In Phoenix says

Kevin says

My mortgage is $1900 a month.

And you're monthly costs are twice that. Stop lying about it.

Huh? P+I is $1900. Taxes are $400. Insurance is $85.

Tax deductions save me $600. So my total comparison vs rent is $1700.

I spend less than $1000 a year on maintenance if you want to count that too.

Now put up or shut up. Where is the home I can rent for half the cost? If you can find a single home of comparable quality (even a much smaller one!) In a comparable neighborhood that is renting for half of that I will give you $100. Or buy you a two year premium membership. Or never post again. Your choice.

Hell, I'd be impressed if you could find one renting for less than my total monthly costs, never mind half the cost.

By the way, confusing depreciation with entropy is hilarious. As certain things become more rare they absolutely increase in value, even if they technically are rotting or eroding.

You're clearly just arguing for arguing sake. Reality doesn't agree with anything you say.

Bellingham Bill says

But what can happen should we allow it is a "virtuous" debt/print cycle taking hold, where we maintain some semblance of an economy via the $40B/mo QE3 accreting into more massive money creation as borrowing/spend/saving cycle counteracts the general deflation going on.

Remember, with each recession, the economy will require increasingly higher doses of "stimulus".

Currently, very few people have enough cash available to make a sizable down-payment. Investors have been buying up a lot of houses lately. Next, they will have to rent them to the so called 95%. This will cause oversupply of rental units, and they won't be able to get more than the market rate in the long run. Without wage inflation, it is virtually impossible to have a strict rent inflation. When this happens, there will be another "crisis".

Darrell In Phoenix says

Darrell In Phoenix says

And you're monthly costs are twice that. Stop lying about it.

And worse yet, you couldn't find a buyer for it for a fraction of what you paid.

K. Let me know when you actually see an account balance with more than $50 in it.

But hey..... I'll be happy to build you another retail product for $400/sq.

Send me your drawings.

rjb.sitecivil@gmail.com

I'd rather have someone who actually knows what they're talking about do it for $200.

gsr says

Without wage inflation, it is virtually impossible to have a strict rent inflation.

while I agree (rents in real terms went down quite a lot in the 1970s) the higher the proportion of the housing stock being rented the more market power the landlords have to squeeze more rent out of their tenants.

And demographically we have the peak of the baby boom echo turning 20 this year.

Darrell In Phoenix says

$20k replacing $60k in wages.... yeah. Mighty "stimulative".

No, SSA income is additional personal income in the national accounts.

Either people who retire leave that job for the next person, or still work and collect SS and Medicare benefits.

SSA checks (and Medicare) are going to be an IMMENSE flow into the consumer economy later this decade.

Bellingham Bill says

SSA checks (and Medicare) are going to be an IMMENSE flow into the consumer economy later this decade.

I don't see how it's a net positive. Every dollar that comes out just came out of somebody else's taxes. If it was coming out of useless marginal dollars that might be a different story, but given how regressive these taxes are it seems unlikely.

Darrell In Phoenix says

$20k replacing $60k in wages.... yeah. Mighty "stimulative".

LOL

I was thinking the same thing. I can't wait to see the geriatrics buying up the LCD TVs, and Maserati's on their fixed income from the government. Good times coming.

Kevin says

I don't see how it's a net positive. Every dollar that comes out just came out of somebody else's taxes. If it was coming out of useless marginal dollars that might be a different story, but given how regressive these taxes are it seems unlikely.

Exactly. Any dollar paid out by the government for old timer fixed incomes came from someone else, and is taken away from other spending.

If it was housing, where Obama and Bernanke keep trying to inject magically created liquidity, then that's a different story. Not so much with geriatric SSA payments.

And as for old people's "other income", good luck with that. The people who got most screwed by Bernanke were old people. Their interest accounts are practically losing value everyday.

@Mell, @Bellingham Bill, @Kevin I would encourage you guys to put him on ignore. He just draws people in and destroys the threads. I like hearing what you have to say, but arguing with him is pointless. He is like a bot generating topical bear comments with little behind them.

BG

The Professor says

The "dollar paid out" came from the "old timer"s withholdings throughout their working life.

Having said that I do not feel entitled to social security. It should be the safety net against old age poverty, not the depended on income.

That's true, but it's not some magical form of liquidity like that other poster was trying to imply, it came out of someone's paycheck (and I agree, old timers deserve to get what they paid into).

The cure for cancer, new robots, and viable fusion technology, yes that will expand the economy. SSA checks?

Not likely.

The Professor says

The "dollar paid out" came from the "old timer"s withholdings throughout their working life.

SS is a pay as you go plan. The money isn't put into the bank and then withdrawn. Current workers pay current retirees. The "trust fund" isn't that all that big at 2.7 trillion (about 3 years payouts) and only consists of IOU's from the government's general fund.

So any money going out in SS is being taken in with fica deductions. It's a wash.

Bellingham Bill says

Debt vs. the LL's rent increase. That's the gauntlet the masses have to run this decade and next.

love my rent controlled pad!

bob2356 says

SS is a pay as you go plan. The money isn't put into the bank and then withdrawn. Current workers pay current retirees. The "trust fund" isn't that all that big at 2.7 trillion (about 3 years payouts) and only consists of IOU's from the government's general fund.

That Trust fund took 20 years to build up, though. It's now time to spend it down as originally intended (FICA pay-ins aren't going away so we need to look at how long the surplus will actually last as a supplement to FICA).

If we just raise taxes on the lower 90% to pay off the bonds the whole Greenspan Commission thing will have been something of a scam to lower taxes on the wealthy by having the boomers (and Gen X) overpay their FICA and then have the boomer children (and Gen X) pay off the bonds now.

So I fully expect this is what's going to happen.

Goran_K says

The cure for cancer, new robots, and viable fusion technology, yes that will expand the economy. SSA checks?

we don't actually need to "expand the economy" to get things back in balance.

The top 5% clear 30%+ of the national income.

There's your problem, mate.

SS checks this decade and next are ~$2T pure redistribution if the top 10% pay up on their end of the Greenspan Deal over the next 15-20 years.

Just what the doctor ordered.

Kevin says

I don't see how it's a net positive. Every dollar that comes out just came out of somebody else's taxes. If it was coming out of useless marginal dollars that might be a different story

yes, I'm thinking higher taxes on non FICA-hit income. That's the only thing that would be "fair". And thus the least likely, LOL.

Also we can just print the payouts somehow. That's also possible, sigh.

Bellingham Bill says

Goran_K says

The cure for cancer, new robots, and viable fusion technology, yes that will expand the economy. SSA checks?

we don't actually need to "expand the economy" to get things back in balance.

The top 5% clear 30%+ of the national income.

There's your problem, mate.

SS checks this decade and next are ~$2T pure redistribution if the top 10% pay up on their end of the Greenspan Deal over the next 15-20 years.

Just what the doctor ordered.

Only accurate if SS is fixed to no longer be a regressive tax (maybe we quit the current charade and just fold it into income tax). The top 10% pay significantly less as a percentage of income in SS than the regular folks.

Bellingham Bill says

That's the only thing that would be "fair". And thus the least likely, LOL.

Just remove the cap and it'd have a big impact. If you move a marginal dollar from someone who wasn't spending it (or wasn't spending it efficiently anyway), and give it to someone who must spend every dollar that they get, you'll stimulate the economy.

SS taxes at present just take dollars from people who need them (those making under $115k/year or thereabouts) and gives them to people who need them slightly more.

Bellingham Bill says

Goran_K says

The cure for cancer, new robots, and viable fusion technology, yes that will expand the economy. SSA checks?

we don't actually need to "expand the economy" to get things back in balance.

The top 5% clear 30%+ of the national income.

There's your problem, mate.

SS checks this decade and next are ~$2T pure redistribution if the top 10% pay up on their end of the Greenspan Deal over the next 15-20 years.

Just what the doctor ordered.

All of that money is just going to keep a huge geriatric boomer population (the largest percentage of old timers in U.S history) alive, and off the streets. I'm not sure how that helps your point.

Goran_K says

I'm not sure how that helps your point.

the 95%'s economy needs velocity (spending).

old people need more paid labor, which results in wage income. Every dollar of pension income -- and medicare-paid expenses -- just get passed right into the private economy.

This is going to be a TWO TRILLION PLUS flow into the private economy by 2030.

This dynamic is also why I'm not terribly bearish on Japan. They don't have much of a boomer population (compared to us) but their support burden is going to rise a lot as their working age population declines.

But this "support burden" actually translates into a much tighter job market.

Kevin says

SS taxes at present just take dollars from people who need them (those making under $115k/year or thereabouts) and gives them to people who need them slightly more.

I agree with your other point (that the top 10% needs to kick in the money that's paying down the SSTF) but this wealth-transfer aspect of SSA is sheer elegance.

Payroll taxes are a great way to sequester income for necessities so that we don't use all our disposable incomes to bid up rents and home values.

Regressive taxes come out of rents!

At any rate, the less we tax the masses the more the landlords can jack up their rents, and the more we all just bid up the cost of housing.

I *really* wish I had understood this back in 2001 as the Bush tax cuts were going down, sigh.

Bellingham Bill says

This is going to be a TWO TRILLION PLUS flow into the private economy by 2030.

This dynamic is also why I'm not terribly bearish on Japan. They don't have much of a boomer population (compared to us) but their support burden is going to rise a lot as their working age population declines.

But this "support burden" actually translates into a much tighter job market.

Yes $2T in SSA payments, but many times that lost since many of the boomer population will no longer be working, or very productive. Yes the support structure for those industries may experience some growth, but I don't see how that will stabilize the economy in the theory you have put forth.

Goran_K says

but many times that lost since many of the boomer population will no longer be working,

this is a good thing since Gen Y is just now moving into working age.

If Gen Y is 1982 to 2000 they are aged 12 to 20 right now and they will take over from their parents wrt jobs.

Goran_K says

but I don't see how that will stabilize the economy in the theory you have put forth.

I'm just saying the boomer retirement has some under-appreciated upsides.

If taxes are raised on the lower 95% to cover the rising cost of the boomer support, then, no, it won't be all that hot.

But the top 10% cleared $3.3T in AGI in 2010 and paid $610B in taxes. If we doubled taxes on corporations ($300B) and doubled taxes on the top 10% ($600B) and redirected $300B of our defense outlays into health expansion, we'd have a balanced budget and a much more symmetrical wealth distribution arrangement.

Or we can just print it, LOL. That's the most likely outcome I think. Who needs pain when you've got a printer.

We are not definitely Japan.

But, last 5 years or so, we have been Japan who did not really reckon with problems for last 2 decades. They did it with 90% domestic debt.
So in fact, Japan could do it quite well without foreign debts.
We did it Japan style (not Gangnam Style), only worse is with foreign debts.

It's time now. Are we going to finally reckon with the problem that are worsened last 5 years ?

Are we really NOT Japan ?

Darrell In Phoenix says

Housing demand is at 16 year lows.... and falling.

what a bizarre assertion to make when the baby boom echo peaked exactly 20 years ago!

Population growth overall is slowing -- the population aged 25 to 64 grew ~20% in the 1980s but only 11% in the 2000s and will "only" grow 6% in this decade, but that's still growth, LOL.

Here in my Realtor Realityâ„¢ the population of age 25-34 yos grew 14% in the 1980s, actually fell 8% in the 1990s, grew 5% in the 2000s, and is going to grow 9% this decade, 2% in the 2020s, and 8-9% (per-decade) again in the 2030-2050 period.

Listening to Schiff?

LOL

Darrell In Phoenix says

Housing Demand is at 16 year lows

Do you have a link for that?

Darrell In Phoenix says

Wait a second.

Your my pet project, why ignore you.

Link, please.

Darrell In Phoenix says

little troll

Link.

You either have a link to support your absurd assertion, or go away.

You've once again mirepresented what I've said, so I'll probably want a link for that also.

The Professor says

Ignore him or ignore him.

Oh, alrighty.

David Losh says

Darrell In Phoenix says

Housing Demand is at 16 year lows

Do you have a link for that?

Darrel doesn't do links - he just says.

Bellingham Bill says

this is a good thing since Gen Y is just now moving into working age.

If Gen Y is 1982 to 2000 they are aged 12 to 20 right now and they will take over from their parents wrt jobs.

I'm sorry but that theory doesn't make any sense. The retiring boomers are leaving behind mid-level to senior positions, Gen Y isn't going to be able to just walk into these jobs and take over. They are trying to get entry level positions, unfortunately, many of these jobs (if you keep up with hiring forecast) simply aren't there. Either more experienced mid-level types in their 30s and 40s are taking them, or the positions don't even exist anymore as many of them have been shipped over seas. It's one of the biggest worries for new grads these days, and more and more of them are simply not entering the job market and either 1) going back to school, or 2) moving back home and taking partial employment.

I do agree that the boomer retirement saga will have many upsides (as they die off, we can finally have some form of austerity instead of hegemonic cold war era entitlement), but SSA checks bolstering the economy just seems like a huge stretch to me.

Goran_K says

The retiring boomers are leaving behind mid-level to senior positions, Gen Y isn't going to be able to just walk into these jobs and take over.

of course not, but every hole at the top will leave a hole at the bottom as people move up.

Goran_K says

or the positions don't even exist anymore as many of them have been shipped over seas

sure, that's a problem, but that's orthogonal to the baby boom retiring en masse as they are starting to now. There were 4 MILLION boomers born every year during the boom years of 1952-1964.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005067.html

Goran_K says

but SSA checks bolstering the economy just seems like a huge stretch to me.

it's going to be a nice tailwind, that's all. Kinda like "helicopter money". The boomers have been allegedly saving for decades, and now they finally get to spend their money!

The more this spending is being funded from the top 5-10%, the better net stimulus it will be. Hell, we can probably even print some of it if we need to. . .

Bellingham Bill says

The more this spending is being funded from the top 5-10%, the better net stimulus it will be. Hell, we can probably even print some of it if we need to. . .

It's just not going to happen. Printing money to support a SS short fall with a little socialism thrown in for flavor? I honestly hope you're not being serious.