patrick.net

robertoaribas says

not worth the read... kid went to work in mom and dad's mortgage business. and that makes him a freaking economist?

In other words, you can't necessarily discredit what he is saying, so you discredit him? Where does he claim to be an economist? BTW, it doesn't take an "economist" to observe the obvious.

robertoaribas says

As this interesting time in housing continues, it becomes more and more clear how I sold before the bubble, and bought so much at the bottom, and have now made and will continue to make so much money: My compitetion, people like Yupsuck and tanyerbottom are so much less intelligent than me!

thanks for being you, it makes being me easier!

You can enjoy your success and make your points Roberto, but there's no need to be an asshole about it. Buying a bunch of cheap homes in Phoenix doesn't magically transform you into a raging intellectual. You might be, but not for that reason.

As far as the hysterical shrieking of Robertoaribas goes .. always consider this....

"Opinions founded on prejudice are always sustained with the greatest violence"

Oscar Wilde

Yup says

I believe that my 144 IQ would trounce you.

Roberto is in it too deep to have an open mind. If he had an open mind he wouldn't be able to sleep at night.

ELC says

Yup says

I believe that my 144 IQ would trounce you.

Roberto is in it too deep to have an open mind. If he had an open mind he wouldn't be able to sleep at night.

Oh come on. He's bought a bunch of cheap houses in Phoenix and is renting them out for far more than his PITI. He's quids in. It would hardly make any difference to him if prices collapsed in Phoenix (and considering they are still relatively cheap even with recent rises, it doesn't exactly look likely). If you really think he should be having sleepness nights given his situation, then you are living in la-la land.

Bigsby says

robertoaribas says

As this interesting time in housing continues, it becomes more and more clear how I sold before the bubble, and bought so much at the bottom, and have now made and will continue to make so much money: My compitetion, people like Yupsuck and tanyerbottom are so much less intelligent than me!

thanks for being you, it makes being me easier!

You can enjoy your success and make your points Roberto, but there's no need to be an asshole about it. Buying a bunch of cheap homes in Phoenix doesn't magically transform you into a raging intellectual. You might be, but not for that reason.

Wow...resorting to a bunch of unwarranted childish name-calling, being an arrogrant prick (may as well return the name-calling) and taking pleasure in the supposed misfortune of people you don't even know or ever will know? All in the same post?Roberto clearly has issues. Not to mention no class whatsoever. I'd hate to be one of his tenants.

Just remember - karma. And the fact that Roberto can purchase all of Maricopa County and beyond, but he ultimately "can't take it with him". You don't see Warren Buffett going around boasting about his fortunes, although he certainly could - it's called humility and class.

Roberto: This post wasn't about nor intended to be all about your vast real estate holdings in greater Phoenix. I certainly wasn't inquiring about them and really could not care less. You have already established your legendary status in your own mind, been the star of far too many of your own posts and have hijacked too many others, including this one.

robertoaribas says

Low inventory relative to demand leads to price increases, PERIOD. It doesn't matter why the inventory is low, the result is the same.

You continue to repeat this over and over again without any explanation of what you believe the upper bounds of that price increase are.

Of course the answer is that prices will rise until its profitable to built again.

In otherwords, there is an upper cap on where prices will rise to(or at least the speed at which prices rise).

However the way you state it....theres another phrase for that....

"Buy now or be priced out forever".

Which is quite hillarious since you were arguing against that exact same thing five years ago.

*in the confines of the Phoenix metro area.

Right on Roberto! It doesn't matter if the RE market is fake or manipulated. Like the stock market isn't? Like gov grants and college grants and section 8 and food stamps and free medical are not? the entire economy is fake, has been fake and probably will be for a very long time.
it matters where it is and what it is. U did great and have been ahead of the curve for years. Make your money and let the others debate the reasons.Keep laughing all the way to the bank.

the bears bet on the RE market and lost. The bulls have won. always ainner and loser in any economic investment.

mike2 says

Right on Roberto! It doesn't matter if the RE market is fake or manipulated. Like the stock market isn't? Like gov grants and college grants and section 8 and food stamps and free medical are not? the entire economy is fake, has been fake and probably will be for a very long time.
it matters where it is and what it is. U did great and have been ahead of the curve for years. Make your money and let the others debate the reasons.Keep laughing all the way to the bank.

the bears bet on the RE market and lost. The bulls have won. always ainner and loser in any economic investment.

Yeah great job Roberto! The problem is I don't frankly give a damn about Roberto or what the market is doing in Phoenix and I suspect the majority here don't really care either - yet here he is tooting his horn day after day. Look at me! Look at me! Aren't I awesome?! Aren't I special?! Give it a rest already.

robertoaribas says

tannenbaum says

The problem is I don't frankly give a damn about Roberto or what the market is doing in Phoenix and I suspect the majority here don't really care either - yet here he is tooting his horn day after day. Look at me! Look at me! Aren't I awesome?! Aren't I special?! Give it a rest already.

and yet here you are, reading my posts, quoting them... getting your little girl panties all bunched up about them... but you don't care!

Your posts have hijacked this thread that *I* started. I have no choice but to suffer through your insufferable insights. I purposely avoid your threads, but apparently, like a moth to a flame, you can't get enough of this one that I started.

I have an idea- why not ask Patrick change this entire website to the "isn't it great to be Roberto" website since that is what it has sadly devolved into being...

robertoaribas says

My first comment was on the poor economic analysis in the article you quoted. You had to make it personal about me...

p>

I'm sorry that you missed your chance to buy, however, taking your jealousy and rage out on me is not very healthy for you... now quit posting and get back to your job, work hard, while I take a nice easy day of walking my dog and doing yoga! you have to pay your rent after all!

.

Reading comprehension isn't a strong suit of yours is it? My initial comment to you after criticizing my link wasn't personal at all, then you proceed to call me a nitwit, etc.

WRONG AGAIN buddy! You couldn't be more wrong about me if you tried. I can do this all day. Just read what you have written above. You are a complete sociopath.

tannenbaum says

Just read what you have written above. You are a complete sociopath.

Classic delusions of granduer IF he's serious and not just yanking your chain.

Oh I get it...I'm supposed to engage in meaningful discussion with someone after they have called me names with your latest telling me to "piss off, loser" before you promptly edited your post. No thanks.

"Roberto is in it too deep to have an open mind. If he had an open mind he wouldn't be able to sleep at night."

That's what the bottle is for.

Economist, interesting take on things.

Would you care to ask this kid a question, who worked for Mommy and Daddy

mike2 says

Right on Roberto! It doesn't matter if the RE market is fake or manipulated. Like the stock market isn't? Like gov grants and college grants and section 8 and food stamps and free medical are not? the entire economy is fake, has been fake and probably will be for a very long time.

That's a ridiculous generalization. What's important is HOW and WHY each individual market is manipulated. Roberto got out two years too soon in '05 and is getting in two years too early now. As a result of playing it safe he's going to get to keep his shirt but he will be crying in his rice and beans.

I just feel bad for the poor kids in his classes.
Little Juan: "But Mr. aribas, you just said that 17 was a prime number last week! How did that change?"
RA: "When you've got seven houses in this town you can question me!"

Yup says

Bubbaariba's if you knew anything about markets and how they function you would understand that when anyone artificially manipulated supply or demand you have a dysfunctional market that can not set a proper price.

Actually, over time, manipulation is built in and becomes the new normal. For example, certain ag products such as milk prices have been manipulated (and sometimes heavily manipulated) for the last 70+ years. Yet, very few are waiting for the manipulation to end before they buy some milk.

CDon says

milk prices have been manipulated (and sometimes heavily manipulated) for the last 70+ years. Yet, very few are waiting for the manipulation to end before they buy some milk.

So invest in housing because milk has been manipulated and people still buy milk. With that sort of genius you might just become the next NAR president!

"Housing does a body good."

Logan Mohtashami says

Would you care to ask this kid a question, who worked for Mommy and Daddy

I would think growing up in the business would give you more insight than someone who walked in off the street. Don't mind Roberto. That's his way of whistling past the graveyard. Welcome.

tannenbaum says

Just remember - karma. And the fact that Roberto can purchase all of Maricopa County and beyond, but he ultimately "can't take it with him".

Roberto is clearly not here to learn. He knows it all. He's staying on a bearish forum when he's clearly a bull now. Is it mature to try to change a bunch of bears into bulls by insulting and belittling them? Somebody is a few tacos short of a combo platter. Now why would someone like that be here?

Successful, healthy people surround themselves with people who are supportive of what they're doing.

Bigsby says

If you really think he should be having sleepness nights given his situation, then you are living in la-la land.

If he can't keep his places rented and the rents drop yet his expenses stay the same he's going to need to sell. Oh but wait, the market has declined and he can't sell without a loss...

Can't happen. "La la land." Just watch.

robertoaribas says

I teach calculus... Maybe that is the problem i have on here, is that I'm used to speaking to people that have some intelligence and ability to learn.

hey patrick, this element could stand a good ole delete hisself.

ELC says

So invest in housing because milk has been manipulated and people still buy milk. With that sort of genius you might just become the next NAR president!

Not at all. The point was a very limited one refuting the contention that due to manipulation, you will have a "dysfunctional market that can not set a proper price." You absolutely can if the manipulation continues for so long that it becomes part of the market.

So the question as to when to "invest" (and I actually kinda hate that word in this context as many here simply want to buy a place and get on with life w/o fear there is another monumental drop dead ahead) is when do you see the purported "manipulation" ending and how? Will it be quick and maybe cause a dislocation? Or will it be drawn out into a huge nothing burger?

Now the question as to the particular "artificial" condition of underwater sellers holding out causing a dearth of inventory - had you really thought about it in 07 & 08, how else would one expect a bottom to form? Fact of the matter is, prices in some areas will not hit nominal highs for 10-20 years, meaning underwater homeowners will be a way of life for some markets for at least that long.

And now that the powers that be have been manipulating more heavily since TARP, QE, etc. have seen the results of their manipulation turn a scorching downturn into years of stagnation, why would they suddenly change course? In essence why would they suddenly rip the band aid off, potentially destroying the stagnation they worked so hard to create in the first place?

So the question now is what will these underwater homeowners do going forward? Absent a black swan type event, (which is a potential factor now, 10 years from now, and every other moment of our lives) will they suddenly, en masse decide that they cant take it any more, puke up short sale inventory in droves, potentially driving prices back to the stone age...

or

Will they do what they did to cause a bottom in the first place, which is individually, and agonizngly slowly make non-uniform decisions. To wit - some will give up, some will hold out just a bit longer, and some will vascilate - basically the same decisions they individually have been making since the beginning of the bursting in 07, the arresting of the downward momentum in 09, and the stagnation of the last 3 years.

The answer to me seems obvious - meaning the forecast is years of stagnation to (at best) a market that rises lower than the rate of inflation while the remaining excesses are worked off.

So if you are investing, you better do it for rents - and if places dont pencil out in your area, dont invest in homes.

And if you are waiting to buy a place to live in, do so, only because you need to get your down payment or other financial affairs in order first - or because you just arent ready. There clearly is no need to rush.

Still if your reason to wait is because you see TPTB suddenly ripping the band aid off, and underwater homeowners capitulating en masse, creating a fantasy land of manna from heaven inventory levels and stone age prices, well, I dont know what to tell you.

CDon says

To wit - some will give up, some will hold out just a bit longer, and some will vascilate

I think they will follow herd mentality as usual and at a certain point all give up.

BTW, great post.

CDon says

The answer to me seems obvious - meaning the forecast is years of stagnation to (at best) a market that rises lower than the rate of inflation while the remaining excesses are worked off.

Like the saying goes, "the market abhors a vacuum." No one makes money in stagnation. It won't be tolerated for long. If the efforts to create a bubble fail you will see a push to create a crash.

The Government is going to run out of the juice it will take to create a bubble. And really what it will take is going back to no-doc loans and the lifting of buyback clauses, and I don't see that happening soon.