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Housing Inventory Ghost Town


               
2012 Nov 27, 3:01pm   42,846 views  130 comments

by tannenbaum   follow (0)  

http://loganmohtashami.com/2012/06/11/orange-county-ca-housing-inventory-ghost-town/

This post, somewhat ironically coming from a loan officer in Orange County, CA, is several months old, but remains equally relevant today and succinctly explains the completely dysfunctional real estate market of 2012.

#housing

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29   CDon   2012 Nov 29, 6:50am  

robertoaribas says

cdon just wrote a very cogent explanation of the market... and immediately gets a dislike...
see, that is what starts to set some people (like me) off on this site. His response was frankly one out of a hundred in terms of quality on this blog; If you don't like his premises or conclusions, explain how you see the world differently...

Ive always found that strange too. Construct a decent argument and (other than ELC who had a thoughtful one) get nary a peep in response other than a bunch of dislikes.

If there was a agree/disagree button, that would make a bit more sense - almost like "I disagree with what you are saying, but I dont have the time or energy to pen a response". And maybe in fact that is what people are trying to say.

Still, the more time I spend here, the more I see a common theme emerging. Many of the posts here are made with a surprising amount of emotion and more often than not that emotion is fear and or anger. So my guess is more often then not the dislike is either:

"I dont like what you are saying. I think you are wrong, but I dont have the ability to debate you on the merits, so let me stick out my tounge and run away"

or

"I actually think you could be right - but I dont want to admit that, and I dont like that you are telling me something I dont want to hear...so let me stick out my tounge and run away"

Either way, its rather disappointing. Incidentally, I won der how many dislikes this post about the nature of dislikes will get?

30   ELC   2012 Nov 29, 9:21am  

CDon says

Still, the more time I spend here, the more I see a common theme emerging. Many of the posts here are made with a surprising amount of emotion and more often than not that emotion is fear and or anger.

I find it that way on all forums where it's free to join and you can post anonymously with little moderator interference. Emotions are purposely exagerated to elicit a response. That's why when you compose a serious down to earth post you seem to be ignored. It's the way Internet discussions have always been. I assure you very few are actually angry. In fact they're probably watching TV and talking with their spouse at the same time they're typing. Others have a whiskey in one hand and are typing with the other. Don't take it to heart.

31   nope   2012 Nov 29, 9:30am  

I *only* use message boards while drinking

32   MsBennet   2012 Nov 29, 4:43pm  

Roberto, I was really admiring you for being ahead of the curve and daring to buy a bunch of homes and rent them out. But your need for adoration is quite puzzling. By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

33   bmwman91   2012 Nov 29, 5:01pm  

MsBennet says

Roberto, I was really admiring you for being ahead of the curve and daring to buy a bunch of homes and rent them out. But your need for adoration is quite puzzling. By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

He just needs to put the douchebears on ignore. I did, and Pnet sure seems a lot cleaner to me!

34   Goran_K   2012 Nov 30, 1:14am  

Roberto, I agree with bmwman. Use the ignore button. I think your post are pretty informative from the landlord perspective, but getting into flame wars where you're calling people "morons, little girls, etc" and talking about buying exotic private islands kind of makes you a catch 22 sometimes.

35   Goran_K   2012 Nov 30, 1:36am  

Man, I was in the Philippines a while back when I used to work for Goldman sachs. All I remember is that metro Manilla was brutal. The heat, the smog, the traffic. I'm guessing whereever you're moving isn't near there.

36   CDon   2012 Nov 30, 1:53am  

Billybigrig says

you may have received one dislike but did anyone once use a condenseding retort

Only mildly. But still, fair point.

Billybigrig says

the only thing this guy is doing is trying to say a few hail Mary's and thinks everthing will be all warm and fuzzy again...
In my neck of the woods we call it backpeddling...

Not sure I understand. What "guy"?

ELC says

Emotions are purposely exagerated to elicit a response. That's why when you compose a serious down to earth post you seem to be ignored. It's the way Internet discussions have always been. I assure you very few are actually angry.

Probably true as im relatively new to blogging. Still seems like a waste of time to mostly log in to hurl insults, but obviously, im in the minority.

robertoaribas says

and talking about buying exotic private islands kind of makes you a catch 22 sometimes.
It was liarwhaterver that started that "buying exotic private islands..."
I intend to RETIRE to an exotic non private island... why the hell would I want a private island? where would I go out to eat? do yoga? hang out in coffee shops playing on the internet? find friends to kayak and mountain bike with?

Completely OT, but I happen to know a guy who bought a private island...Big Mistake.

Theyre actually kinda cheap so the guy (who had IBM ground floor money) bought it on a lark. The reason they are so cheap however is they are undeveloped - and development costs a FORTUNE. Had to build a mini wastewater treatment facility to get enough drinking water. For the pouring of the slab, it was actually cheaper to build a facility & manufacture the concrete on site, than it was to ship in fully loaded cement trucks from the nearest islands. Insurance was sky high as risks like "piracy" were built into the policy. He had to contract with the Govt to ensure they would defend his island if it were invaded. Overall it was a nightmare.

37   coriacci1   2012 Nov 30, 8:02pm  

MsBennet says

By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

somethings are best said in italian: ce l’ ha piccolo!

38   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Nov 30, 8:19pm  

robertoaribas says

pazuzu says

"Roberto is in it too deep to have an open mind. If he had an open mind he wouldn't be able to sleep at night."

That's what the bottle is for.

yes, with 13 homes and 5 mortgages, I feel really nervous. I mean, I only take in $13,000 a month in rent, and I have to pay $7000 in bills including the home I live in... Hell, if things turned really bad, i'd actually have to use some of my salary for living expenses. Oh the horror!

Quick, look over here! Look at how great I am! Roberto, if you only knew the kind of lot that many readers on here are carrying. Your Phoenix empire would barely carry the monthly cost for a regular 2bd condo in many metro areas. Give it a rest. Go help your students skip a grade. That would be more honorable than calling people names over and over on this site.

39   RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks   2012 Nov 30, 8:27pm  

bmwman91 says

MsBennet says

Roberto, I was really admiring you for being ahead of the curve and daring to buy a bunch of homes and rent them out. But your need for adoration is quite puzzling. By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

He just needs to put the douchebears on ignore. I did, and Pnet sure seems a lot cleaner to me!

touche

40   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 2:33am  

robertoaribas says

I teach college not grade school

Jr College :)

41   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 2:34am  

When did this become a censored forum?

42   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 3:54am  

I did none of those things. I had a dispute with one other user.

43   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 4:07am  

You are the one responding and saying censorship is ok with you.

44   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 4:09am  

I am betting you would change your toon if you got deleted.

Funny a liberal fighting for censorship.

45   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 4:28am  

Free Speech 1
Duckface 0

46   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 4:42am  

yup1 says

Sounds a little like church.

Or the tea party

47   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 6:19am  

robertoaribas says

I do not mark insulting names or words at me as spam, because i don't care about insults. I do mark calling me a liar as spam, because unless someone cares to back it up with facts, in any other non anonymous forum that would be considered libel, and thus I don't think it should be tolerated here.

If you don't consider your linked blog having posts by you saying

Evidence piling up that the Phoenix Arizona Housing Market is in big trouble.
Posted on September 16, 2010

Why am I still bearish, when there has been good news on some housing fronts?
Posted on October 16, 2010 by robertoaribas

and here is you Oct 31 2012 post
You gave Phoenix as an example. I have 3 condos under contract today, that are selling at 80%+ off of peak prices. They are not even in the worst areas, though certainly not luxury. 30K for a 3/2 2 car garage 1450 square feet, near metro rail and freeways... rents for $800. This isn't 2000 pricing, this isn't 1990 pricing, this is NEVER pricing, they sold new for 60's in 1982.

Told your blog followers you are a bear on Oct 16, 2010.
Told this forum you are in contract to buy Oct 31, 2010.

Maybe it isn't a lie, it is pretty damn close.

48   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 6:25am  

So you are basically saying that from Oct 16, 2010 to Oct 31, 2010 you went from being a "bear" to being in contract to buy. Holy F*** that is one massive change of heart, mind, and soul.

I noticed you did not tell your blog of your actions until Aug 17, 2012. Of course you even told half truths at that time "Full disclosure, I began buying properties 18 months ago" That is a half truth because you actually started on Oct 31, 2010 not in March 2011 like you claim.

Now you come on hear and toot your own horn on a hourly basis.

49   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 6:30am  

And now robertoaribas will promptly meltdown, start calling me names, and cry to Patrick to have me banned. Even though I have not called him a liar, and have backed up his statements with his own statements. How did you put it

robertoaribas says

because unless someone cares to back it up with facts

Backed it up with facts! In fact in your own words.......

50   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 8:41am  

yup1 says

So you are basically saying that from Oct 16, 2010 to Oct 31, 2010 you went from being a "bear" to being in contract to buy. Holy F*** that is one massive change of heart, mind, and soul.


I noticed you did not tell your blog of your actions until Aug 17, 2012. Of course you even told half truths at that time "Full disclosure, I began buying properties 18 months ago" That is a half truth because you actually started on Oct 31, 2010 not in March 2011 like you claim.


Now you come on hear and toot your own horn on a hourly basis.

And there you have it no response from robertoaribas!

51   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 10:10am  

yup1 says

And now robertoaribas will promptly meltdown, start calling me names, and cry to Patrick to have me banned.

Looks like you did as predicted, again.....

robertoaribas says

obsessive little bitch ass

robertoaribas says

A smarter person than you

robertoaribas says

Now, I know your blind rage at me, or perhaps your general nature precludes much in the way of thinking.

robertoaribas says

Now, I know since you have your proctology headlite on, and are attempting to look straight up my rectum

robertoaribas says

You are extremely jealous of me, and will go to obsessive lengths to take me on, on here.

You attempt to weasel out with "I quit my blog" LOL

I wonder home many properties you had when you started posting again on Aug 17, 2012? I am gonna guess you had already purchased ALL of the properties you bought.

You are the equivalent of a wall street slimeball telling his clients to buy the same crap he is selling, and to sell the same crap he is buying. I mean you are selling yourself on your website as a professional.

"Roberto Ribas Realtor and Mathematics Professor.
I’ve been investing and working in real estate for over a decade. My background in mathematics enabled me to see the bubble coming. I have been researching housing bubbles and markets for many years now."

"Phoenix Finance and Home Buying Economics"

Nice advice you gave your readers on your website.

You are Realtard Scum!

52   ELC   2012 Dec 1, 10:36am  

yup1 says

My background in mathematics enabled me to see the bubble coming. I have been researching housing bubbles and markets for many years now."

I bet it had nothing to do with math. He was probably reading Dr. Housing Bubble's blog. That blog laid it out very concisely.

53   Bigsby   2012 Dec 1, 10:43am  

yup1 says

You attempt to weasel out with "I quit my blog" LOL

I wonder home many properties you had when you started posting again on Aug 17, 2012? I am gonna guess you had already purchased ALL of the properties you bought.

You are the equivalent of a wall street slimeball telling his clients to buy the same crap he is selling, and to sell the same crap he is buying. I mean you are selling yourself on your website as a professional.

"Roberto Ribas Realtor and Mathematics Professor.
I’ve been investing and working in real estate for over a decade. My background in mathematics enabled me to see the bubble coming. I have been researching housing bubbles and markets for many years now."

"Phoenix Finance and Home Buying Economics"

Nice advice you gave your readers on your website.

You are Realtard Scum!

You are complaining about his insults, and yet, you are also insulting him.
He's given you a perfectly cogent explanation of what he did, including a relevant link, so why are you continuing with this?

54   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 10:43pm  

Bigsby says

You are complaining about his insults, and yet, you are also insulting him.

I called him Realtard Scum and you consider that an insult? He is a realtard which by definition means he is scum.

55   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 10:48pm  

robertoaribas says

yup1, here is a link to get you started to dealing with your envy in a more healthy manner.

Why is it you think anyone would be envious of you?

I have no desire to be a slumlord. I have no desire to collect rents from the less fortunate. I have no desire to be a realtard and lead people to the path of debt slavery. I have no desire to be a junior college teacher leading those young minds to a life of debt slavery.

You obviously think very highly of yourself. Maybe you should reconsider.

56   Bigsby   2012 Dec 1, 10:55pm  

yup1 says

Bigsby says

You are complaining about his insults, and yet, you are also insulting him.

I called him Realtard Scum and you consider that an insult? He is a realtard which by definition means he is scum.

It's an insult, so quit complaining about being insulted. If you want to dish it out...

57   Bigsby   2012 Dec 1, 10:57pm  

yup1 says

I have no desire to be a slumlord. I have no desire to collect rents from the less fortunate. I have no desire to be a realtard and lead people to the path of debt slavery. I have no desire to be a junior college teacher leading those young minds to a life of debt slavery.

Damn, that's a lot of crap in one paragraph. And how does it make you feel belittling someone for being a teacher?

58   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 11:16pm  

Bigsby says

It's an insult, so quit complaining about being insulted. If you want to dish it out...

Are you his little bitch?

Bigsby says

And how does it make you feel belittling someone for being a teacher?

Makes me feel just fine. Unlike you media programmed fucktards I do not believe that every teacher comes directly from heaven. In fact this little scunbag realtard and jc teacher says he left ASU to become a jc teacher for more pay, ROFL.

59   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 11:28pm  

robertoaribas says

yup1 says



I have no desire to collect rents from the less fortunate.


The college students and young professionals who rent my places would have a serious issue with your characterizations... until they realize it is just haphazard insults from somebody terribly bitter with envy!

Oh you actually think you are providing a valuable service. Collecting rents from others is a valuable service for you, not for them.

60   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 11:35pm  

robertoaribas says

all you can do is come on here and attack me!!!!

Attack, if you call pointing out what you have posted on here and your blog attacking you. I pointed out your deception on your blog. I pointed out your bragging about yoga classes. The truth hurts.

61   Bigsby   2012 Dec 1, 11:36pm  

yup1 says

Bigsby says

It's an insult, so quit complaining about being insulted. If you want to dish it out...

Are you his little bitch?

Why are you spending your time pissing and moaning about being insulted whilst simultaneously insulting others? You come across as a complete dick.
yup1 says

Makes me feel just fine. Unlike you media programmed fucktards I do not believe that every teacher comes directly from heaven. In fact this little scunbag realtard and jc teacher says he left ASU to become a jc teacher for more pay, ROFL.

Who said every teacher came directly from heaven? But you decided to disparage a profession rather than directly address the person. I guess you are just a very important person with a very important job rather than the douche bag you come across as.

62   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 11:37pm  

robertoaribas says

I take yoga at a hot yoga studio... You should try yoga, the meditative aspects might help you with your obvious envy and hatred.

The only envy here is your envy for more of you.

Why don't you log into Bigsby now and use him to defend you, again.

63   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 11:38pm  

Sorry a little late on that one. HERE COMES BIGSBY/ROBERTO

64   Bigsby   2012 Dec 1, 11:39pm  

yup1 says

robertoaribas says

I take yoga at a hot yoga studio... You should try yoga, the meditative aspects might help you with your obvious envy and hatred.

The only envy here is your envy for more of you.

Why don't you log into Bigsby now and use him to defend you, again.

Perhaps because we are two different posters.

65   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 11:41pm  

robertoaribas says

yup1 says



The truth hurts.


it hurts you, that much is clear for everyone to see. You must not have any life at all, to spend so much time following me around here! Are you in love with me? face it, you have a homosexual crush on me, that is why you spend your days researching me! Notice I know nothing, and care nothing for you!


Now, go get yourself some help!

Again you think way too much of yourself. Kind of creepy dude. Are you going to all male yoga classes?

66   Bigsby   2012 Dec 1, 11:43pm  

yup1 says

Again you think way too much of yourself. Kind of creepy dude. Are you going to all male yoga classes?

Nice. Adding a bit of homophobia to the mix. Classy stuff.

67   yup1   2012 Dec 1, 11:45pm  

Bigsby says

You come across as a complete dick.

You are a dick.

68   Bigsby   2012 Dec 1, 11:45pm  

yup1 says

Bigsby says

You come across as a complete dick.

You are a dick.

Oooohh, I'm hurt.

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