patrick.net

And it starts again in the SFBA. Another rounds of tax payer money will be needed when this area blows up again for the 3rd time.

E-man says

HAI

HUA YI CO?

Nonsense! First time buyers just need to cash in some stock options and buy a 2m house, the hedge funds dont buy those to rent. They are being too cheap.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

And it starts again in the SFBA. Another rounds of tax payer money will be needed when this area blows up again for the 3rd time.

I'm not convinced the gov't will bail out anyone this time. If a crash does come, I anticipate it having different effects on different areas. Places like Inland Empire, or the Sacremento Suburbs have crashed pretty hard already. When you look at places like Vegas, they are at construction cost.

Places like the SFBA, and West LA will crash harder, but will the federal gov't bail out home owners in select bubble areas? I think these people are on their own.

Did anyone read Matt Taibbi's article in Rolling Stone about the on going stealth bail out of the banks and how the banks that were supposed to use the money to lend , refinance and reduce principle amounts continue to use it to stay afloat instead?

Out of the $40Billion allocated for foreclosure and principle reduction only about 10% or $4Billion has been made available.

Instead of whining about bay areas prices, why don't you guys just move? That place is a bizarro land for single nerds who spend 18 hours a day at the office.

Kevin says

Instead of whining about bay areas prices, why don't you guys just move? That place is a bizarro land for single nerds who spend 18 hours a day at the office.

Sir, I think that you are confused. People in Silicon Valley do not WORK. They INNOVATE. They are ushering in the future via web-ad revenue, something that has never before existed. Insert buzz-words: social, scalable, cloud, self-healing, relevant, semantic web. My argument is now irrefutable.

E-man says

Are you still arguing with the market? I recently made an offer on a property 12% over the highest comparable in the complex with no appraisal contingency, and they didn't even bother to counter me. They outright rejected my offer, and the property went pending.

Arguing, no. Complaining, yes. ;)

Kevin says

Instead of whining about bay areas prices, why don't you guys just move?

That's always peoples response to affordability.

How about the fact people grew up their and have family they want to spend time with?

Thedaytoday says

Kevin says

Instead of whining about bay areas prices, why don't you guys just move?

That's always peoples response to affordability.

How about the fact people grew up their and have family they want to spend time with?

Shit happens?

Thedaytoday says

Kevin says

Instead of whining about bay areas prices, why don't you guys just move?

That's always peoples response to affordability.

How about the fact people grew up their and have family they want to spend time with?

When a hurricane or war causes people to move away and prevents them from returning, it's called a disaster. Sometimes taxpayers even provide government relief. But when the government policy drives up housing costs, it's called "helping homeowners" (actually the FIRE sector of the economy and the politicians they control) and the taxpayers pay again. As with healthcare, housing is a sector where people want to be able to live their lives without their own government being used against them to inflate the price.

Kevin says

Thedaytoday says

Kevin says

Instead of whining about bay areas prices, why don't you guys just move?

That's always peoples response to affordability.

How about the fact people grew up their and have family they want to spend time with?

Shit happens?

The Amerian way eh!

curious2 says

Thedaytoday says

Kevin says

Instead of whining about bay areas prices, why don't you guys just move?

That's always peoples response to affordability.

How about the fact people grew up their and have family they want to spend time with?

When a hurricane or war causes people to move away and prevents them from returning, it's called a disaster. Sometimes taxpayers even provide government relief. But when the government policy drives up housing costs, it's called "helping homeowners" (actually the FIRE sector of the economy and the politicians they control) and the taxpayers pay again. As with healthcare, housing is a sector where people want to be able to live their lives without their own government being used against them to inflate the price.

The sfba isn't seeing any more government involvement than any random city in the rest of the country.

Its expensive because of all of the childless, drinks, single professionals, and tech money.

Same reasons why Manhattan is so expensive, just with engineers instead of bankers.

GTFO or suck it up. I recommend leaving. The weather isn't worth it.

Kevin says

The sfba isn't seeing any more government involvement than any random city in the rest of the country.

Not exactly true, when you consider the FHA loan limit for cities in CA, versus, say, IN. As it is, you've got the noble Hoosier subsidizing the nationally reviled Californian's appetites and ostentation.

E-man says

gregpfielding says

Arguing, no. Complaining, yes. ;)

Ah. I'm done complaining and trying to figure out a way of executing.

What's the matter, a guillotine isn't gory enough for you?

Thedaytoday says

Did anyone read Matt Taibbi's article in Rolling Stone about the on going stealth bail out of the banks and how the banks that were supposed to use the money to lend , refinance and reduce principle amounts continue to use it to stay afloat instead?

Out of the $40Billion allocated for foreclosure and principle reduction only about 10% or $4Billion has been made available.

So why are you supporting a president who has given the banksters all the bail out they wanted and not prosecuted a single one? Just because you don't like republicans? That would be nonsensical.

robertoaribas says

move to a small town in the midwest, and quit bitching about how expensive the bay area is...

Come on, Robert -- that's just a little insensitive. Moving to the Midwest isn't always an option for a guy (employment; aging parents; friends).

While I generally agree that the BA is overrated to the point of surreality, I think I understand the anguish of a 2nd or 3rd generation native whose had his blueprint for happiness shit on by waves of popped-collar'd speculator turds.

robertoaribas says

They escaped out of Cuba to NYC with nothing...

cost of living a tad high seems like an itty bitty thing.

Don't get me wrong, Rob -- I'm not comparing the plight of the American Indian to a guy who can't buy a 900 sq ft shanty in SF for less than 700K. I'm just sympathetic to being born too early/too late. I have been alive a long time, and I can see in vivid detail how the boomers fucked up a good thing.

The power of Monetary Policy, as the great Polanyi illustrated some 70 years ago in his book The Great Transformation, should not be underestimated. It rends and puts asunder everything from business concerns to marriages and household formation. It is truly a destructive force.

BTW -- I WILL live in Cuba one day...I WILL!!!

robertoaribas says

I knew Phoenix was hot when i moved here, so I just deal with it... like a man.

Spending the summers inside a nice 68F climate controlled A/V loaded playground of course.

JodyChunder says

BTW -- I WILL live in Cuba one day...I WILL!!!

Why?

New Renter says

Why?

I rode my bike down there from Texas the summer of '58 and loved it better than anyplace else on Earth -- despite a nasty hurricane and the turmoils unfolding at the time. This was just before the shit hit the fan down there.

Ever since, Cuba has never been far from my thoughts. And I will get back there before I keel, even if I have to pay a fine.

Kevin says

Its expensive because of all of the childless, drinks, single professionals, and tech money.

You neglected to mention, the rich expats from rich families from Asia.

bmwman91 says

Insert buzz-words

I thought it was, "leverage" buzz words.

E-man says

but it hurts because we're no where near the top of the market.

No no -- you are, pretty much...

Victorville on the other hand, is just getting started!

Kevin says

Its expensive because of all of the childless, drinks, single professionals, and tech money.

Same reasons why Manhattan is so expensive, just with engineers instead of bankers.

Agree. In Manhattan, when someone grew-up to have children and have resources is leaving to buy a house in suburban.

E-man says

LOL! Thanks for the laugh. You're funny uncle Jody. :)

That's Daddy Chunderâ„¢ -- and I wasn't joking. Victoriville is up 20% YOY, and things are looking good for the next several years before I finally offload this crap and retire. IOW, my cha-ching is bigger than your cha-ching!

https://www.evernote.com/shard/s1/sh/d5b94e7b-a9cf-4358-b828-1c12f950d72f/76287f41f73c48de4a9147392999d1f7

On the flip side, do you actually think you're going to experience linearly upward appreciation where you are? If so, what will drive it? And don't you goddamn dare say Chinese investors!

bmwman91 says

via web-ad revenue

na... much is still product / services in SW and HW. Ad Revenue is two small to make a difference... there is no unlimited ad revenue market worth trillions and trillions.

we do make what the customer needs, enterprise systems, much is for running business.

Kevin says

Its expensive because of all of the childless, drinks, single professionals, and tech money.

like it was back in the 70s 80s and 90s. Oh yea... NOT !

E-man says

Santa Clara County is up 28% YOY on SFHs and 30% YOY on condos.

It's primarily just a FED induced RE rally, though. Granted, it's the same thing driving prices up here in Victorville, but unlike SCC, Victorville actually hit a deep trough from which it is now surging (only to trough again, of course). I bought in the trough, and am enjoying the wave. Admit it! You wish you'd listened to me and bought yourself some desert parcels! FOOL! ; D

E-man says

The next market top is 2018-2020. :)

Did your crystal ball come with a user's manual? Did you ever read it? Minus the odd rally here and there, it's diminishing returns/consolidation/consumer deleveraging for the rest of your life, junior. I know the windows in the casino make it look like the party'll never end, but...I'm sorry...

E-man says

Looks like we have been adding quite a bit of jobs here in the Silicon Valley. The traffic is getting worse by the days.

That's a pretty folksy metric for job growth! The traffic was insane in Florida when I was there for a few weeks two years back and their unemployment was something like 12%!

I see a big difference between the parabolic growth in tech in the 90's and the growth we're seeing today. The overall compensation is still very competitive in order to attract talent, but it just doesn't go as far (gas in '99 was .87 cents). Besides, much of the really smart/savvy employees (typically the highest compensated) tend to split Siilycon Valley as soon as they can cash in their chips. That's because it's a boring ass city. I see this as a growing trend going forward. All that will be left aside from a few diehards are the also-rans and investor nerds.

E-man says

Uncle Jody,

DADDY! I've never been anybody's uncle!

I made an offer on a house in 2009 that ended up getting 80 offers. I made an offer on a house in 2010 that ended up selling for 35% over asking price.

26 offers? 10% over asking price? Big deal.

In SFBA: “No cash – no house amigo”.
Every broker I worked with, asked me how much cash I have.

REpro says

In SFBA: “No cash – no house amigo”.

The manipulation of consumer sentiment here is so transparent: the more expensive or exclusive you make something, the more covetous the consumer becomes. That's how you get dupe A into outbidding dupe B: by making the idea of slowly dying of boredom in a 60 year old 900 sq ft rambler in Nerdopolis seem like something downright exotic.

Victorville's looking better and better everyday, folks...

The Real estate "Bubble" isn't back, at least not for most of us. The problem with the Real Estate bubble in 2005 was all markets were way over priced, the supply shortage is mostly confined to the bay area, there certainly isn't 10 offers, with offers over assessed value for houses for sale in my area.

There is a big supply shortage being reported in every major us metro. People aren't selling.

Kevin says

There is a big supply shortage being reported in every major us metro. People aren't selling.

I drive down the street and see many "FOR SALE" signs on homes..especially on weekend..

But not listed on MLS anywhere... Pocket and Exclusive Listings.. a growing trend..

I suggest you look at if this is also true in your Metro.. I am sure you will find it true.

thomaswong.1986 says

I drive down the street and see many "FOR SALE" signs on homes..especially on weekend..

But not listed on MLS anywhere... Pocket and Exclusive Listings.. a growing trend..

I suggest you look at if this is also true in your Metro.. I am sure you will find it true.

I haven't seen this at all in my part of the East Bay.

robertoaribas says

move to a small town in the midwest, and quit bitching about how expensive the bay area is... or move to nevada or something. maybe reno, and you could fly back to the bay area, or even drive whenever you want to spend a weekend.

thats what business does.. move out of SFBA.. to North West... South West and Texas.

gregpfielding says

I haven't seen this at all in my part of the East Bay.

just saying... keep open mind about how complete these listings are.. no requirements.

thomaswong.1986 says

But not listed on MLS anywhere... Pocket and Exclusive Listings.. a growing trend..

Very true -- but this is a growing trend outside of California, too. Patrick once discussed why pocket listings were not advantageous for buyers, but I can't find the thread now.

Pocket listing is growing due to low inventory. Having own listing is like finding a golden egg now.