patrick.net

Raw says

I do think the index Shiller devised must have made him a lot of money.

Yeah, I just read it was sold to Fiserv and S&P. I figure that was a nice deal for him.

robertoaribas says

Case and Shiller wanted people to be able to hedge risk in real estate, like you do in anything else...

I wish I'd explained this more like you. Yours made more sense. I get confused about how much of his idea was aimed at industry and how much was aimed at individual investors.

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Fiserv,+Inc.+Acquires+Case+Shiller+Weiss,+Inc.%3B+Leading+Provider+of...-a085936347

FunTime says

"If someone had to pick -- all my money in the stock market or all my money in index bonds," Shiller says, "TIPS would win hands down.

I like stocks, but if I had to choose something in bonds, TIPS would be it.
With rates close to zero, rates cannot go anywhere else but up, which would spell a disaster for bonds. Ofcourse, Uncle Sam will be footing most of that bill when the time comes.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100431901

Raw says

He is brilliant when it comes to devising analytical tools and formulas, but when it comes to forecasting he is a disaster. Ask yourself, if he can accurately forecast why isn't he a billionaire?

actually he has done well $$$ writing about the irrational behavior of investors. and frankly his predictions did come true both to the stock and later home price bubble. Frankly, his book Irrational Exuberance i expect to be classic reading for decades to come but not as economics but behavior sciences.

"The behavioral finance school gained new credibility following the October 1987 stock market crash. Shiller's work included survey research that asked investors and stock traders what motivated them to make trades; the results further bolstered his hypothesis that these decisions are often driven by emotion instead of rational calculation. Much of this survey data has been gathered continuously since 1989, and is available at Yale's"

He did not create any tools that were not already there be they the Price to Earnings multiple for stocks or Home price to individual income multiple to home prices... its been around for decades for any individual to see.

If anything, Shillers tools is a simple question... Why do you believe you will get 20% appreciation on your home ? And let the emotions fly.....