3
0

An Astonishing and Persistent Denial of Economic Reality


 invite response                
2014 May 3, 10:56pm   12,679 views  69 comments

by smaulgld   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

The 1st Quarter 2014 GDP Number

15:27-18:20 The first quarter GDP was up just 0.1% in the first quarter and the weather was blamed for the poor economic performance. Cold weather can't derail an entire economy. Recent tornados in the south may also be blamed for a lack of 2nd quarter GDP growth, although Keynesians might argue that tornados might lead to economic growth as homes will need to be rebuilt. Discussion of the Fed and media spin on the poor numbers:

From CNBC:

"Yet the Fed statement did not reflect substantial concerns and in fact agreed with consensus from economists who believe the slowdown will be short-lived and growth will accelerate."

From the FOMC statement:

"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions."

Even though initial jobless claims are up, home sales are down, twenty percent of homes have no one employed , homeownership rates are down, there is a rise in food stamp usage, mortgage applications are down and new home construction is down, the media persists on peddling an economic "recovery" story.

From Reuters:

"U.S. consumer spending recorded its largest increase in more than four and a half years in March, cementing views the economy ended a dismal first-quarter on solid footing."

Podcast notes:

http://smaulgld.com/astonishing-persistent-denial-economic-reality/

http://www.youtube.com/embed/xtvKeivGjrs&feature=youtu.be

#housing

« First        Comments 31 - 69 of 69        Search these comments

31   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 8:51am  

AF- I deleted your last post because it contained overt profanity.
I enjoy your off color humor and insights but had to respectfully delete it.

32   Blurtman   2014 May 4, 9:50am  

smaulgld says

Blurtman says

Yes, but the Fed buys up soured auto loan securities, and problem solved.

and that is how they buy a recovery with money printed out of thin air.

And that is how you keep a "recovery" going while the country continues to sink.

33   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 9:58am  

Call it Crazy says

Ha Ha.... I think he'll just ignore them...

or change them and put them in a chart

34   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 10:08am  

Blurtman says

And that is how you keep a "recovery" going while the country continues to sink.

while you keep telling everyone it's ok, it's just a touch of bad weather and a few holidays

35   Strategist   2014 May 4, 11:10am  

smaulgld says

Blurtman says

And that is how you keep a "recovery" going while the country continues to sink.

while you keep telling everyone it's ok, it's just a touch of bad weather and a few holidays

When all else fails, blame the weather.

36   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 11:28am  

Strategist says

When all else fails, blame the weather.

or Easter

37   Blurtman   2014 May 4, 11:31am  

smaulgld says

Blurtman says

And that is how you keep a "recovery" going while the country continues to sink.

while you keep telling everyone it's ok, it's just a touch of bad weather and a few holidays

How long can it continue?

38   Strategist   2014 May 4, 11:33am  

Blurtman says

smaulgld says

Blurtman says

And that is how you keep a "recovery" going while the country continues to sink.

while you keep telling everyone it's ok, it's just a touch of bad weather and a few holidays

How long can it continue?

Summer's coming, we can blame the heat.

39   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 11:37am  

Blurtman says

How long can it continue?

It has already lasted longer than I thought it would. They are very clever. If they announced in 2009 that they were going to print $4 trillion and still be printing in mid 2014 the dollar would have collapsed.

40   Blurtman   2014 May 4, 1:48pm  

smaulgld says

Blurtman says

How long can it continue?

It has already lasted longer than I thought it would. They are very clever. If they announced in 2009 that they were going to print $4 trillion and still be printing in mid 2014 the dollar would have collapsed.

The Fed cannot go bankrupt, can it?

41   smaulgld   2014 May 5, 12:01am  

Blurtman says

The Fed cannot go bankrupt, can it?

Not if it can bailout itself!

42   indigenous   2014 May 5, 12:05am  

smaulgld says

Not if it can bailout itself!

There are limits to that. Once the rest of the world gets wise to the FED shenanigans that will be it. It is all about confidence.

In our lifetimes we have seen this happen to the USSR and Argentina.

No country has ever survived fiat money.

43   smaulgld   2014 May 5, 12:46am  

indigenous says

smaulgld says

Not if it can bailout itself!

There are limits to that

of course, it can technically avoid bankruptcy but render itself irrelevant in the process

44   indigenous   2014 May 5, 2:34am  

smaulgld says

Here is a decent explanation as to how the bullion banks hold down the price of gold and silver

That is a long and complicated read, but I still have to say that we are in a deflationary period that is the driving force.

smaulgld says

Here is what the German regulators have to say about it "WORSE THAN LIBOR RIGGING"

Funny considering that the Germans are the main benefactors from the EU. Do you think shorting the Deutsche Bank is smart?

45   smaulgld   2014 May 5, 2:41am  

indigenous says

Funny considering that the Germans are the main benefactors from the EU. Do you think shorting the Deutsche Bank is smart?

Lots of strange things going on with Germany.

There are rumors that DB is illiquid.

More intriguing is that Germany's request to have their gold repatriated has gone unfulfilled and they haven't complained.

47   Strategist   2014 May 5, 6:12am  

Bubbabear says

America The Shrunken

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/05/04/opinion/sunday/bruni-america-the-shrunken.html?_r=0&referrer=

I had access to more education and opportunities then my parents had. My children have more opportunities and access to education then I had. I tell my children how lucky they are, and the hardships we had to go through.
My first job as a teen during Xmas was 2 hours 45 min. one way. I was glad to have it

48   smaulgld   2014 May 5, 6:21am  

Strategist says

I had access to more education and opportunities then my parents had. My children have more opportunities and access to education then I had. I tell my children how lucky they are, and the hardships we had to go through.

My first job as a teen during Xmas was 2 hours 45 min. one way. I was glad to have it

It varies but a college education costs more today and returns less

49   Rin   2014 May 5, 6:21am  

indigenous says

In our lifetimes we have seen this happen to the USSR and Argentina.

No country has ever survived fiat money.

Only problem is that all the major pairs: USD, Pound Sterling, Euro, & Yen forming most of the foreign exchanges, are fiat.

Thus, aside from PMs, there is no other place aside from mass devaluation of everyone.

50   smaulgld   2014 May 5, 6:25am  

Rin says

Thus, aside from PMs, there is no other place aside from mass devaluation of everyone.

That is true and even if you find a currency that is relatively sound even though fiat- like the Norwegian kroine or swiss fran you can bet that won't last as they won't want to be at an export disadvantage so they will devalue their own currencies to get in line with the others.

In that race only hard assets win. (PM's, commodities)

51   indigenous   2014 May 5, 6:28am  

Rin says

Thus, aside from PMs, there is no other place aside from mass devaluation of everyone.

One mitigating factor is deflation, despite the FED's best efforts demographics and technology have forced deflation.

But at some point there will have to be a reconciliation.

52   Strategist   2014 May 5, 10:06am  

smaulgld says

Strategist says

I had access to more education and opportunities then my parents had. My children have more opportunities and access to education then I had. I tell my children how lucky they are, and the hardships we had to go through.

My first job as a teen during Xmas was 2 hours 45 min. one way. I was glad to have it

It varies but a college education costs more today and returns less

Check this out:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101642878

53   smaulgld   2014 May 5, 10:35am  

Strategist says

Check this out:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101642878

Thanks a Fed pump as they want the borrowing to continue

54   smaulgld   2014 May 5, 11:27am  

smaulgld says

Strategist says

How would you explain a 35% drop in gold price from the peak, when $4trillion in added currency is still floating around?

Here is a decent explanation as to how the bullion banks hold down the price of gold and silver

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/01/17/hows-whys-gold-price-manipulation/

Here is what the German regulators have to say about it "WORSE THAN LIBOR RIGGING": http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-16/metals-currency-rigging-worse-than-libor-bafin-s-koenig-says.html

More: Banks Sued on Gold Price Fixing

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/05/05/banks-sued-on-claims-of-fixing-price-of-gold/?partner=socialflow&smid=tw-nytimesbusiness

55   Strategist   2014 May 5, 11:41am  

smaulgld says

More: Banks Sued on Gold Price Fixing

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/05/05/banks-sued-on-claims-of-fixing-price-of-gold/?partner=socialflow&smid=tw-nytimesbusiness

Those so called price fixes were merely designed to follow the market in a non computer era. Today, the futures are traded virtually 24 hours a day, with such a huge market that manipulating the price of gold by any one entity, for a length of time is impossible.
Also the price of gold went up to $2,000. Was that manipulation? Now, it has declined by 35%. Those oily, greasy bankers in their pinstripes can't determine anything. They get paid to do shit.

56   smaulgld   2014 May 5, 10:51pm  

indigenous says

Add to that Moores law and tech gives us computers in everything, fracking and cheaper energy.

The only reason we have any inflation is that the economy is built on debt and expansion so the FED is fighting for it's Keynesian life.

Here is a good chart showing what prices go up and what pries go down
https://twitter.com/TheBubbleBubble/status/463431980860706816/photo/1

57   indigenous   2014 May 5, 10:59pm  

smaulgld says

Here is a good chart showing what prices go up and what pries go down

Good thing they throw in hedonic pricing or inflation would be nil, good thing we have those nice fellers looking out for us...

58   indigenous   2014 May 6, 12:11am  

Facebooksux says

The GDP was just revised to -0.6% today.

Yet there were 288,000 new jobs created last month.

That don't pass the smell test.

59   smaulgld   2014 May 6, 12:17am  

indigenous says

Yet there were 288,000 new jobs created last month.

That don't pass the smell test.

a lot of low paying jobs supposedly created and some construction jobs

60   smaulgld   2014 May 6, 3:58am  

Facebooksux says

The GDP was just revised to -0.6% today.

Where did you see that. was that an analyst estimate at a revision?

61   smaulgld   2014 May 6, 11:44am  

Call it Crazy says

You forgot to add in the 800,000+ people that were "vaporized" from the workforce... I guess the personal (lack of) spending by these people helped the GDP number (go down)...

92 million people not working and they call it a "recovery"

62   Bubbabeefcake   2014 May 6, 11:57am  

smaulgld says

Call it Crazy says

You forgot to add in the 800,000+ people that were "vaporized" from the workforce... I guess the personal (lack of) spending by these people helped the GDP number (go down)...

92 million people not working and they call it a "recovery"

92 million people not working is a catastrophy waiting to happen
http://usawatchdog.com/catastrophic-meltdown-coming-to-america-doug-casey/

63   smaulgld   2014 May 6, 12:03pm  

Facebooksux says

Also:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/05/merrill-q1-gdp-now-tracking-negative-04.html

And calculated risk blog is a Krugmanite Obama water carrying blog

64   Bubbabeefcake   2014 May 6, 12:14pm  

smaulgld says

Facebooksux says

Also:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/05/merrill-q1-gdp-now-tracking-negative-04.html

And calculated risk blog is a Krugmanite Obama water carrying blog

Spot on....they sold their souls to the Devil

65   Blurtman   2014 May 6, 12:18pm  

smaulgld says

Facebooksux says

Also:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/05/merrill-q1-gdp-now-tracking-negative-04.html

And calculated risk blog is a Krugmanite Obama water carrying blog

Agreed! The blog got it wrong on the labor force participation rate, and continues to pretend that Moody's and Standard and Poor's ratings are A-OK, as if nothing happened. Ignores financial fraud and acts as if nothing happened. A toadie for the RE and financial industries.

66   smaulgld   2014 May 7, 7:15am  

Case in point: Yellen today

The economy paused in Q1 but clearer skies ahead!

http://www.forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2014/05/07/yellen-economy-paused-in-q1-but-clearer-skies-ahead/

“I see that pause as mostly reflecting transitory factors, including the effects of the unusually cold and snowy winter weather,”

“With the harsh winter behind us, many recent indicators suggest that a rebound in spending and production is already under way, putting the overall economy on track for solid growth in the current quarter.”

67   indigenous   2014 May 7, 9:26am  

New talking head but the same old horseshit.

68   smaulgld   2014 May 7, 9:39am  

indigenous says

New talking head but the same old horseshit.

The weather lady

69   indigenous   2014 May 7, 9:51am  

smaulgld says

The weather lady

At least the weather lady is hot.

« First        Comments 31 - 69 of 69        Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions