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An Astonishing and Persistent Denial of Economic Reality


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2014 May 3, 10:56pm   12,749 views  69 comments

by smaulgld   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

The 1st Quarter 2014 GDP Number

15:27-18:20 The first quarter GDP was up just 0.1% in the first quarter and the weather was blamed for the poor economic performance. Cold weather can't derail an entire economy. Recent tornados in the south may also be blamed for a lack of 2nd quarter GDP growth, although Keynesians might argue that tornados might lead to economic growth as homes will need to be rebuilt. Discussion of the Fed and media spin on the poor numbers:

From CNBC:

"Yet the Fed statement did not reflect substantial concerns and in fact agreed with consensus from economists who believe the slowdown will be short-lived and growth will accelerate."

From the FOMC statement:

"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions."

Even though initial jobless claims are up, home sales are down, twenty percent of homes have no one employed , homeownership rates are down, there is a rise in food stamp usage, mortgage applications are down and new home construction is down, the media persists on peddling an economic "recovery" story.

From Reuters:

"U.S. consumer spending recorded its largest increase in more than four and a half years in March, cementing views the economy ended a dismal first-quarter on solid footing."

Podcast notes:

http://smaulgld.com/astonishing-persistent-denial-economic-reality/

http://www.youtube.com/embed/xtvKeivGjrs&feature=youtu.be

#housing

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2   indigenous   2014 May 4, 1:34am  

TLTR

Recovery in Spain funny stuff...

3   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 1:58am  

indigenous says

TLTR

Recovery in Spain funny stuff...

"Recovery" is now the permanent state of all economies
Its code for doing poorly ( but recovering)

4   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 2:21am  

The Professor says

Everybody knows that the Fed has no effect on our economy.

All the Fed does is bailout its shareholders -the too big to fail banks with money they print out of thin air- and create market distortions

5   indigenous   2014 May 4, 2:47am  

smaulgld says

"Recovery" is now the permanent state of all economies

Its code for doing poorly ( but recovering)

Where is the 12 step program?

6   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 2:58am  

indigenous says

smaulgld says

"Recovery" is now the permanent state of all economies

Its code for doing poorly ( but recovering)

Where is the 12 step program?

First you have to identify the economic recovery addict before you can treat him

http://smaulgld.com/how-to-spot-an-economic-recovery-addict/

7   indigenous   2014 May 4, 2:59am  

smaulgld says

First you have to identify the economic recovery addict before you can treat him

De Nile is not just a river?

8   Strategist   2014 May 4, 3:05am  

smaulgld says

indigenous says

TLTR

Recovery in Spain funny stuff...

"Recovery" is now the permanent state of all economies

Its code for doing poorly ( but recovering)

If Spain is recovering, we must be already recovered.

9   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 3:12am  

indigenous says

smaulgld says

First you have to identify the economic recovery addict before you can treat him

De Nile is not just a river?

It's next to Lethe in Hades

10   indigenous   2014 May 4, 3:33am  

I listened to part of your show.

I disagree a little to the gold manipulation thing.

The reason for gold staying down is that we don't have inflation. The banks are not lending for the most part, so the credit market has shrunk.

This combined with the tech reducing the cost of items.

This combined with shrinking demographics.

We have deflation.

11   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 3:35am  

There is an argument re gold not heading higher on fundamentals
But how does one explain the inexplicable massive short selling dumps where a quarter of the annual mining supply gets naked short sold in an instant?

Also gold sales in China are through the roof- they were a non player in the old market
Ten years ago
Retail sales at the US, Canadian, Perth and Austrian mints are also selling a lot more gold than a few years ago

12   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 3:38am  

Strategist says

smaulgld says

indigenous says

TLTR

Recovery in Spain funny stuff...

"Recovery" is now the permanent state of all economies

Its code for doing poorly ( but recovering)

If Spain is recovering, we must be already recovered.

Spain, a world leader in the recovery field

13   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 3:44am  

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

As long as one dollar is not vacuumed up by mortgage payments, America has no meaning.

America: Bring us your tired your poor, your mortgagees

14   indigenous   2014 May 4, 3:54am  

smaulgld says

But how does one explain the inexplicable massive short selling dumps where a quarter of the annual mining supply gets naked short sold in an instant?

Manipulation and perception. But the big picture does not show inflation now.

15   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 3:56am  

indigenous says

smaulgld says

But how does one explain the inexplicable massive short selling dumps where a quarter of the annual mining supply gets naked short sold in an instant?

Manipulation and perception. But the big picture does not show inflation now.

Its hard to perceive a reason for the large naked short dumps
of gold and silver
The inflation argument is weakened by increase sales of gold
Price is driven or should be driven by supply and demand

16   Strategist   2014 May 4, 4:01am  

indigenous says

smaulgld says

But how does one explain the inexplicable massive short selling dumps where a quarter of the annual mining supply gets naked short sold in an instant?

Manipulation and perception. But the big picture does not show inflation now.

The federal reserve has clearly stated inflation is not a concern.
Gold needs inflation for a sustained price increase. You can have temporary jumps in price caused by world events, but the trend is clearly down. The only way I see that trend getting reversed is with another $4 trillion increase in money supply.

17   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2014 May 4, 4:03am  

A guy wrote a book about this several decades ago. It was called "Being There". A imbecile gardener becomes someone who is taken seriously after he describes positive/optimistic condition in growing plants, and eventually the media takes this as a metaphoric description of the economy.

The difference: The book was satire.

18   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2014 May 4, 4:05am  

dodgerfanjohn says

A guy wrote a book about this several decades ago. It was called "Being There". A imbecile gardener becomes someone who is taken seriously after he describes positive/optimistic condition in growing plants, and eventually the media takes this as a metaphoric description of the economy.

The difference: The book was satire.

Why are economic conservatives(ie me) consistently derided as being unintelligent when its the economic socialists who can't learn simple lessons from parables and satire?

19   Blurtman   2014 May 4, 4:07am  

The metrics used to measure a recovery are flawed, and so you can have increasing GDP, meager as it has been, but a continuing decline in the economic well being of the average citizen.

20   indigenous   2014 May 4, 4:08am  

smaulgld says

Its hard to perceive a reason for the large naked short dumps

of gold and silver

how does this work?

Things are always changing, if the banks start lending for instance.

But to me the overriding factor is the thing they are trying to solve with abenomics, which is demographics.

Add to that Moores law and tech gives us computers in everything, fracking and cheaper energy.

The only reason we have any inflation is that the economy is built on debt and expansion so the FED is fighting for it's Keynesian life.

21   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 5:27am  

Strategist says

The federal reserve has clearly stated inflation is not a concern.

Gold needs inflation for a sustained price increase. You can have temporary jumps in price caused by world events, but the trend is clearly down. The only way I see that trend getting reversed is with another $4 trillion increase in money supply.

gold does well against currencies that lose value via debasement due to an increase in their number.

22   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 5:29am  

indigenous says

Its hard to perceive a reason for the large naked short dumps


of gold and silver

how does this work?

Here is a decent explanation as to how the bullion banks hold down the price of gold and silver

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/01/17/hows-whys-gold-price-manipulation/

Here is what the German regulators have to say about it "WORSE THAN LIBOR RIGGING": http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-16/metals-currency-rigging-worse-than-libor-bafin-s-koenig-says.html

23   Strategist   2014 May 4, 5:38am  

smaulgld says

Strategist says

The federal reserve has clearly stated inflation is not a concern.

Gold needs inflation for a sustained price increase. You can have temporary jumps in price caused by world events, but the trend is clearly down. The only way I see that trend getting reversed is with another $4 trillion increase in money supply.

gold does well against currencies that lose value via debasement due to an increase in their number.

How would you explain a 35% drop in gold price from the peak, when $4trillion in added currency is still floating around?

24   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 5:51am  

Strategist says

How would you explain a 35% drop in gold price from the peak, when $4trillion in added currency is still floating around?

Here is a decent explanation as to how the bullion banks hold down the price of gold and silver

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/01/17/hows-whys-gold-price-manipulation/

Here is what the German regulators have to say about it "WORSE THAN LIBOR RIGGING": http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-16/metals-currency-rigging-worse-than-libor-bafin-s-koenig-says.html

25   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 7:48am  

dodgerfanjohn says

Why are economic conservatives(ie me) consistently derided as being unintelligent when its the economic socialists who can't learn simple lessons from parables and satire?

They control the universities and a large amount of political and bureaucratic offices- their livings depend upon defending government spending and intervention by people like themselves who claim to know best

26   MAGA   2014 May 4, 7:53am  

What amazes me are the increased number of sub-prime new car loans. Wonder how long it will take before they become repo cars?

27   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 8:18am  

jvolstad says

What amazes me are the increased number of sub-prime new car loans. Wonder how long it will take before they become repo cars?

It is amazing, car dealers will sell/loan to anyone

28   Blurtman   2014 May 4, 8:25am  

jvolstad says

What amazes me are the increased number of sub-prime new car loans. Wonder how long it will take before they become repo cars?

Yes, but the Fed buys up soured auto loan securities, and problem solved.

29   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 8:29am  

Blurtman says

Yes, but the Fed buys up soured auto loan securities, and problem solved.

and that is how they buy a recovery with money printed out of thin air.

30   Bubbabeefcake   2014 May 4, 8:36am  

smaulgld says

dodgerfanjohn says

Why are economic conservatives(ie me) consistently derided as being unintelligent when its the economic socialists who can't learn simple lessons from parables and satire?

They control the universities and a large amount of political and bureaucratic offices- their livings depend upon defending government spending and intervention by people like themselves WHO CLAIM THEY KNOW BEST

....5 Facts that will annoy your Keynesian economics professor

http://speaklibertynow.com/2012/05/25/5-facts-annoy-keynesian-economics-professor/

31   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 8:51am  

AF- I deleted your last post because it contained overt profanity.
I enjoy your off color humor and insights but had to respectfully delete it.

32   Blurtman   2014 May 4, 9:50am  

smaulgld says

Blurtman says

Yes, but the Fed buys up soured auto loan securities, and problem solved.

and that is how they buy a recovery with money printed out of thin air.

And that is how you keep a "recovery" going while the country continues to sink.

33   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 9:58am  

Call it Crazy says

Ha Ha.... I think he'll just ignore them...

or change them and put them in a chart

34   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 10:08am  

Blurtman says

And that is how you keep a "recovery" going while the country continues to sink.

while you keep telling everyone it's ok, it's just a touch of bad weather and a few holidays

35   Strategist   2014 May 4, 11:10am  

smaulgld says

Blurtman says

And that is how you keep a "recovery" going while the country continues to sink.

while you keep telling everyone it's ok, it's just a touch of bad weather and a few holidays

When all else fails, blame the weather.

36   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 11:28am  

Strategist says

When all else fails, blame the weather.

or Easter

37   Blurtman   2014 May 4, 11:31am  

smaulgld says

Blurtman says

And that is how you keep a "recovery" going while the country continues to sink.

while you keep telling everyone it's ok, it's just a touch of bad weather and a few holidays

How long can it continue?

38   Strategist   2014 May 4, 11:33am  

Blurtman says

smaulgld says

Blurtman says

And that is how you keep a "recovery" going while the country continues to sink.

while you keep telling everyone it's ok, it's just a touch of bad weather and a few holidays

How long can it continue?

Summer's coming, we can blame the heat.

39   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 11:37am  

Blurtman says

How long can it continue?

It has already lasted longer than I thought it would. They are very clever. If they announced in 2009 that they were going to print $4 trillion and still be printing in mid 2014 the dollar would have collapsed.

40   Blurtman   2014 May 4, 1:48pm  

smaulgld says

Blurtman says

How long can it continue?

It has already lasted longer than I thought it would. They are very clever. If they announced in 2009 that they were going to print $4 trillion and still be printing in mid 2014 the dollar would have collapsed.

The Fed cannot go bankrupt, can it?

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