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An Astonishing and Persistent Denial of Economic Reality


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2014 May 3, 10:56pm   12,725 views  69 comments

by smaulgld   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

The 1st Quarter 2014 GDP Number

15:27-18:20 The first quarter GDP was up just 0.1% in the first quarter and the weather was blamed for the poor economic performance. Cold weather can't derail an entire economy. Recent tornados in the south may also be blamed for a lack of 2nd quarter GDP growth, although Keynesians might argue that tornados might lead to economic growth as homes will need to be rebuilt. Discussion of the Fed and media spin on the poor numbers:

From CNBC:

"Yet the Fed statement did not reflect substantial concerns and in fact agreed with consensus from economists who believe the slowdown will be short-lived and growth will accelerate."

From the FOMC statement:

"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions."

Even though initial jobless claims are up, home sales are down, twenty percent of homes have no one employed , homeownership rates are down, there is a rise in food stamp usage, mortgage applications are down and new home construction is down, the media persists on peddling an economic "recovery" story.

From Reuters:

"U.S. consumer spending recorded its largest increase in more than four and a half years in March, cementing views the economy ended a dismal first-quarter on solid footing."

Podcast notes:

http://smaulgld.com/astonishing-persistent-denial-economic-reality/

http://www.youtube.com/embed/xtvKeivGjrs&feature=youtu.be

#housing

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15   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 3:56am  

indigenous says

smaulgld says

But how does one explain the inexplicable massive short selling dumps where a quarter of the annual mining supply gets naked short sold in an instant?

Manipulation and perception. But the big picture does not show inflation now.

Its hard to perceive a reason for the large naked short dumps
of gold and silver
The inflation argument is weakened by increase sales of gold
Price is driven or should be driven by supply and demand

16   Strategist   2014 May 4, 4:01am  

indigenous says

smaulgld says

But how does one explain the inexplicable massive short selling dumps where a quarter of the annual mining supply gets naked short sold in an instant?

Manipulation and perception. But the big picture does not show inflation now.

The federal reserve has clearly stated inflation is not a concern.
Gold needs inflation for a sustained price increase. You can have temporary jumps in price caused by world events, but the trend is clearly down. The only way I see that trend getting reversed is with another $4 trillion increase in money supply.

17   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2014 May 4, 4:03am  

A guy wrote a book about this several decades ago. It was called "Being There". A imbecile gardener becomes someone who is taken seriously after he describes positive/optimistic condition in growing plants, and eventually the media takes this as a metaphoric description of the economy.

The difference: The book was satire.

18   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2014 May 4, 4:05am  

dodgerfanjohn says

A guy wrote a book about this several decades ago. It was called "Being There". A imbecile gardener becomes someone who is taken seriously after he describes positive/optimistic condition in growing plants, and eventually the media takes this as a metaphoric description of the economy.

The difference: The book was satire.

Why are economic conservatives(ie me) consistently derided as being unintelligent when its the economic socialists who can't learn simple lessons from parables and satire?

19   Blurtman   2014 May 4, 4:07am  

The metrics used to measure a recovery are flawed, and so you can have increasing GDP, meager as it has been, but a continuing decline in the economic well being of the average citizen.

20   indigenous   2014 May 4, 4:08am  

smaulgld says

Its hard to perceive a reason for the large naked short dumps

of gold and silver

how does this work?

Things are always changing, if the banks start lending for instance.

But to me the overriding factor is the thing they are trying to solve with abenomics, which is demographics.

Add to that Moores law and tech gives us computers in everything, fracking and cheaper energy.

The only reason we have any inflation is that the economy is built on debt and expansion so the FED is fighting for it's Keynesian life.

21   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 5:27am  

Strategist says

The federal reserve has clearly stated inflation is not a concern.

Gold needs inflation for a sustained price increase. You can have temporary jumps in price caused by world events, but the trend is clearly down. The only way I see that trend getting reversed is with another $4 trillion increase in money supply.

gold does well against currencies that lose value via debasement due to an increase in their number.

22   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 5:29am  

indigenous says

Its hard to perceive a reason for the large naked short dumps


of gold and silver

how does this work?

Here is a decent explanation as to how the bullion banks hold down the price of gold and silver

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/01/17/hows-whys-gold-price-manipulation/

Here is what the German regulators have to say about it "WORSE THAN LIBOR RIGGING": http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-16/metals-currency-rigging-worse-than-libor-bafin-s-koenig-says.html

23   Strategist   2014 May 4, 5:38am  

smaulgld says

Strategist says

The federal reserve has clearly stated inflation is not a concern.

Gold needs inflation for a sustained price increase. You can have temporary jumps in price caused by world events, but the trend is clearly down. The only way I see that trend getting reversed is with another $4 trillion increase in money supply.

gold does well against currencies that lose value via debasement due to an increase in their number.

How would you explain a 35% drop in gold price from the peak, when $4trillion in added currency is still floating around?

24   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 5:51am  

Strategist says

How would you explain a 35% drop in gold price from the peak, when $4trillion in added currency is still floating around?

Here is a decent explanation as to how the bullion banks hold down the price of gold and silver

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/01/17/hows-whys-gold-price-manipulation/

Here is what the German regulators have to say about it "WORSE THAN LIBOR RIGGING": http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-16/metals-currency-rigging-worse-than-libor-bafin-s-koenig-says.html

25   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 7:48am  

dodgerfanjohn says

Why are economic conservatives(ie me) consistently derided as being unintelligent when its the economic socialists who can't learn simple lessons from parables and satire?

They control the universities and a large amount of political and bureaucratic offices- their livings depend upon defending government spending and intervention by people like themselves who claim to know best

26   MAGA   2014 May 4, 7:53am  

What amazes me are the increased number of sub-prime new car loans. Wonder how long it will take before they become repo cars?

27   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 8:18am  

jvolstad says

What amazes me are the increased number of sub-prime new car loans. Wonder how long it will take before they become repo cars?

It is amazing, car dealers will sell/loan to anyone

28   Blurtman   2014 May 4, 8:25am  

jvolstad says

What amazes me are the increased number of sub-prime new car loans. Wonder how long it will take before they become repo cars?

Yes, but the Fed buys up soured auto loan securities, and problem solved.

29   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 8:29am  

Blurtman says

Yes, but the Fed buys up soured auto loan securities, and problem solved.

and that is how they buy a recovery with money printed out of thin air.

30   Bubbabeefcake   2014 May 4, 8:36am  

smaulgld says

dodgerfanjohn says

Why are economic conservatives(ie me) consistently derided as being unintelligent when its the economic socialists who can't learn simple lessons from parables and satire?

They control the universities and a large amount of political and bureaucratic offices- their livings depend upon defending government spending and intervention by people like themselves WHO CLAIM THEY KNOW BEST

....5 Facts that will annoy your Keynesian economics professor

http://speaklibertynow.com/2012/05/25/5-facts-annoy-keynesian-economics-professor/

31   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 8:51am  

AF- I deleted your last post because it contained overt profanity.
I enjoy your off color humor and insights but had to respectfully delete it.

32   Blurtman   2014 May 4, 9:50am  

smaulgld says

Blurtman says

Yes, but the Fed buys up soured auto loan securities, and problem solved.

and that is how they buy a recovery with money printed out of thin air.

And that is how you keep a "recovery" going while the country continues to sink.

33   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 9:58am  

Call it Crazy says

Ha Ha.... I think he'll just ignore them...

or change them and put them in a chart

34   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 10:08am  

Blurtman says

And that is how you keep a "recovery" going while the country continues to sink.

while you keep telling everyone it's ok, it's just a touch of bad weather and a few holidays

35   Strategist   2014 May 4, 11:10am  

smaulgld says

Blurtman says

And that is how you keep a "recovery" going while the country continues to sink.

while you keep telling everyone it's ok, it's just a touch of bad weather and a few holidays

When all else fails, blame the weather.

36   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 11:28am  

Strategist says

When all else fails, blame the weather.

or Easter

37   Blurtman   2014 May 4, 11:31am  

smaulgld says

Blurtman says

And that is how you keep a "recovery" going while the country continues to sink.

while you keep telling everyone it's ok, it's just a touch of bad weather and a few holidays

How long can it continue?

38   Strategist   2014 May 4, 11:33am  

Blurtman says

smaulgld says

Blurtman says

And that is how you keep a "recovery" going while the country continues to sink.

while you keep telling everyone it's ok, it's just a touch of bad weather and a few holidays

How long can it continue?

Summer's coming, we can blame the heat.

39   smaulgld   2014 May 4, 11:37am  

Blurtman says

How long can it continue?

It has already lasted longer than I thought it would. They are very clever. If they announced in 2009 that they were going to print $4 trillion and still be printing in mid 2014 the dollar would have collapsed.

40   Blurtman   2014 May 4, 1:48pm  

smaulgld says

Blurtman says

How long can it continue?

It has already lasted longer than I thought it would. They are very clever. If they announced in 2009 that they were going to print $4 trillion and still be printing in mid 2014 the dollar would have collapsed.

The Fed cannot go bankrupt, can it?

41   smaulgld   2014 May 5, 12:01am  

Blurtman says

The Fed cannot go bankrupt, can it?

Not if it can bailout itself!

42   indigenous   2014 May 5, 12:05am  

smaulgld says

Not if it can bailout itself!

There are limits to that. Once the rest of the world gets wise to the FED shenanigans that will be it. It is all about confidence.

In our lifetimes we have seen this happen to the USSR and Argentina.

No country has ever survived fiat money.

43   smaulgld   2014 May 5, 12:46am  

indigenous says

smaulgld says

Not if it can bailout itself!

There are limits to that

of course, it can technically avoid bankruptcy but render itself irrelevant in the process

44   indigenous   2014 May 5, 2:34am  

smaulgld says

Here is a decent explanation as to how the bullion banks hold down the price of gold and silver

That is a long and complicated read, but I still have to say that we are in a deflationary period that is the driving force.

smaulgld says

Here is what the German regulators have to say about it "WORSE THAN LIBOR RIGGING"

Funny considering that the Germans are the main benefactors from the EU. Do you think shorting the Deutsche Bank is smart?

45   smaulgld   2014 May 5, 2:41am  

indigenous says

Funny considering that the Germans are the main benefactors from the EU. Do you think shorting the Deutsche Bank is smart?

Lots of strange things going on with Germany.

There are rumors that DB is illiquid.

More intriguing is that Germany's request to have their gold repatriated has gone unfulfilled and they haven't complained.

47   Strategist   2014 May 5, 6:12am  

Bubbabear says

America The Shrunken

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/05/04/opinion/sunday/bruni-america-the-shrunken.html?_r=0&referrer=

I had access to more education and opportunities then my parents had. My children have more opportunities and access to education then I had. I tell my children how lucky they are, and the hardships we had to go through.
My first job as a teen during Xmas was 2 hours 45 min. one way. I was glad to have it

48   smaulgld   2014 May 5, 6:21am  

Strategist says

I had access to more education and opportunities then my parents had. My children have more opportunities and access to education then I had. I tell my children how lucky they are, and the hardships we had to go through.

My first job as a teen during Xmas was 2 hours 45 min. one way. I was glad to have it

It varies but a college education costs more today and returns less

49   Rin   2014 May 5, 6:21am  

indigenous says

In our lifetimes we have seen this happen to the USSR and Argentina.

No country has ever survived fiat money.

Only problem is that all the major pairs: USD, Pound Sterling, Euro, & Yen forming most of the foreign exchanges, are fiat.

Thus, aside from PMs, there is no other place aside from mass devaluation of everyone.

50   smaulgld   2014 May 5, 6:25am  

Rin says

Thus, aside from PMs, there is no other place aside from mass devaluation of everyone.

That is true and even if you find a currency that is relatively sound even though fiat- like the Norwegian kroine or swiss fran you can bet that won't last as they won't want to be at an export disadvantage so they will devalue their own currencies to get in line with the others.

In that race only hard assets win. (PM's, commodities)

51   indigenous   2014 May 5, 6:28am  

Rin says

Thus, aside from PMs, there is no other place aside from mass devaluation of everyone.

One mitigating factor is deflation, despite the FED's best efforts demographics and technology have forced deflation.

But at some point there will have to be a reconciliation.

52   Strategist   2014 May 5, 10:06am  

smaulgld says

Strategist says

I had access to more education and opportunities then my parents had. My children have more opportunities and access to education then I had. I tell my children how lucky they are, and the hardships we had to go through.

My first job as a teen during Xmas was 2 hours 45 min. one way. I was glad to have it

It varies but a college education costs more today and returns less

Check this out:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101642878

53   smaulgld   2014 May 5, 10:35am  

Strategist says

Check this out:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101642878

Thanks a Fed pump as they want the borrowing to continue

54   smaulgld   2014 May 5, 11:27am  

smaulgld says

Strategist says

How would you explain a 35% drop in gold price from the peak, when $4trillion in added currency is still floating around?

Here is a decent explanation as to how the bullion banks hold down the price of gold and silver

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/01/17/hows-whys-gold-price-manipulation/

Here is what the German regulators have to say about it "WORSE THAN LIBOR RIGGING": http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-16/metals-currency-rigging-worse-than-libor-bafin-s-koenig-says.html

More: Banks Sued on Gold Price Fixing

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/05/05/banks-sued-on-claims-of-fixing-price-of-gold/?partner=socialflow&smid=tw-nytimesbusiness

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