patrick.net

Strategist says

Seattle will be the first to have a massive robot invasion. They are doomed.

Strategist says

Move over MMMARVEL, I'm coming to Texas.

Sorry, no room. However, Illinois or Michigan look like they might have room (or houses) to spare. Sorry, borders here are closed.

Rin says

The next wave is no more human labor. Everyone will be living in a VR
simulation and be b*ning models, like Raquel Welch & Sophia Lorens, living
in their fantasies.

And somehow, deep down, I get flashbacks of how humans were portraited in the movie Wall-E. Sitting in comfie chairs, sipping on big gulps, watching everything via virtual; meanwhile they are fat as pigs and pretty much unable to accomplish even menial tasks that require any kind of physical effort.

Strategist says

All industries and all occupations would have the same limit - zero.

Which you can then divide by. And you thought calculus was a waste of time.

mmmarvel says

Strategist says

Move over MMMARVEL, I'm coming to Texas.

Sorry, no room. However, Illinois or Michigan look like they might have room (or houses) to spare. Sorry, borders here are closed.

Never stopped the Mexicans.
Maybe the "border closed" sign should be in Spanish.

Grocery stores tried these kiosks. They work pretty well except that every 10 minutes or so, an idiot comes by and shows the system isn't, er, idiot-proof. The idiot doesn't know how to use a bar code, or won't click on the screen after they use their credit card, etc. So many stores yanked them out and went back to old fashioned checkout clerks.

Then there's the cost of maintaining the machines and keeping them up to date. As the IT sector discovered, those guys cost money. So they sought to import a million from India. And then we get healthcare.gov or as it's also known as: Error 404.

There's ALWAYS a need for labor. Don't let anyone fool you. The problem is that the oligarchs want CHEAP but also SKILLED labor (or at least labor that pretends to be skilled.) Democrats need new voters as working and middle class whites flee the genocidal policies of the left.

PolishKnight says

There's ALWAYS a need for labor.

That's cause software is still in the prior paradigm of the 80s/90s. Understand this, many Fortune 1000 firms still use Oracle Forms, the biggest joke for a front end GUI, where the default validation is still the tab function. So wherever you go, you'll find that an entire form is rejected, if ppl don't tab around between their entries. The lazy developers seldom change Oracle's default behavior. This is basically the world of the old MVS mainframe type of stupidity. So if that's corporate America, I wouldn't expect anything more from a checkout kiosk.

But fast forward to a time where robots pick up the groceries for you. Then, no more kiosks, no more checkout counters. It's then either a curbside pick or a home delivery.

Rin says

many Fortune 1000 firms still use Oracle Forms, the biggest joke for a front end GUI

Oracle APEX is much better.

zzyzzx says

Rin says

many Fortune 1000 firms still use Oracle Forms, the biggest joke for a front end GUI

Oracle APEX is much better.

Good to know, as something's got to replace that legacy garbage.

Rin says

Is no one worried? Or has everyone accepted my prognostication?

Just because accountants and possibly actuaries (although I question the latter more) are somewhat superfluous in certain contexts (which really seems to be your chief example) doesn't mean that every job is. Carl Frey and Michael Osborne at Oxford who studies this suggest that accountants are indeed at very high risk, but other high paying jobs such as chemical engineers or dentists are not -- they created an index that evaluates various jobs for automation, and towards the top are telemarketers and Patnet's favorite, realtors:

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-less

In addition, the article points out that previous technological innovations has usually resulted in higher employment and higher wages after a period of adjustment.

People are made for work. If a job becomes so easy that one person can do it instead of ten, that frees up labor for different jobs that can tackle problems that were heretofore out of reach because of technical or workforce requirements. All that's really required for this to continue is a functioning system of economic rewards for productive labor, security, and resources.

As far as accountants go: I think they are a long long way from being obsolete. Auditors will always be needed to go over company and government finances. A good auditor will justify many, many times their salary in cost savings. A poor auditor will save at least ten times their wage. Why would you not hire someone with a productivity so high?

corntrollio says

high paying jobs such as chemical engineers

I've actually studied applied chemistry/chemical engineering and a lot of that training is based upon designing unit operations, primarily distillation towers. Aside from the day-to-day maintenance & retrofitting of such facilities, a lot of that design work has been computerized. That's reduced the actual need for ChemEs, dramatically since the 80s. Today, with the resurgence of the energy sector, they are primarily hired to help support fracking operations and transport but many alternate engineers: mechanical, civil, petroleum, geologist, etc are also involved there. The US has not build a new refinery since the late 70s. I'm hearing that there are plans on the drawing board but that's from a design firm, which had shed up to 80% of their headcount since the mid-80s. If these go through, great, some jobs for a decade but then what?

As for dentistry, that's heathcare and much of ancillary healthcare is about having ppl around. I think no one wants to enter a clinic and not see a PA or nurse but a machine. And lower paid dental hygienist are actually eating away at dentist's business over time, performing the routine fillings and cleanings, as not everyone needs a root canal or bridge, every quarter.

Quigley says

Auditors will always be needed to go over company and government finances. A good auditor will justify many, many times their salary in cost savings

Yes, but we already have these CPAs, bonded and licensed with the big three or independent. The field, however, currently has many more auditors than actually needed, once AI can churn through all the receipts and GL, within an 1/2 hour's worth of time. Then, the auditor's job is to put a human face at the end of the day and declare that the client's books are kosher.

Rin says

Quigley says

Auditors will always be needed to go over company and government finances. A good auditor will justify many, many times their salary in cost savings

Yes, but we already have these CPAs, bonded and licensed with the big three or independent. The field, however, currently has many more auditors than actually needed, once AI can churn through all the receipts and GL, within an 1/2 hour's worth of time. Then, the auditor's job is to put a human face at the end of the day and declare that the client's books are kosher.

I've dealt with auditors. A "good" auditor is a matter of definition. By the terms of the big auditing companies, a "good" auditor generates tons of work for the company being audited to justify their audits. Efficiency experts also seek to justify layoffs whether it makes the company more efficient or not. Lawyers sue companies not to make the companies more responsible and save consumers money, but rather to make a lot of money in legal fees.

Rin says

PolishKnight says

There's ALWAYS a need for labor.

That's cause software is still in the prior paradigm of the 80s/90s. Understand this, many Fortune 1000 firms still use Oracle Forms, the biggest joke for a front end GUI, where the default validation is still the tab function. So wherever you go, you'll find that an entire form is rejected, if ppl don't tab around between their entries. The lazy developers seldom change Oracle's default behavior. This is basically the world of the old MVS mainframe type of stupidity. So if that's corporate America, I wouldn't expect anything more from a checkout kiosk.

But fast forward to a time where robots pick up the groceries for you. Then, no more kiosks, no more checkout counters. It's then either a curbside pick or a home delivery.

Again, I've seen this attempted with home delivery here where I live. It's a great idea for seniors and such who can't drive but for most people, they like the idea of picking out their own fruits and vegetables and going though the milk counter to make sure they get the freshest milk (You know, take out the older milk in the front to get to the back.)

Walking through a supermarket, I can browse what's available more easily than on a web browser. I can look at the bread and make sure it's fresh. Or smells the way I like. I'm sure a virtual reality will eventually fix this, but for now, I think most people prefer old fashioned shopping when it comes to groceries and even clothes.

Rin says

zzyzzx says

Rin says

many Fortune 1000 firms still use Oracle Forms, the biggest joke for a front end GUI

Oracle APEX is much better.

Good to know, as something's got to replace that legacy garbage.

The same system that healthcare.gov was built on?

Sure, newer systems are great when they work and are built by qualified programmers and engineers who perform actual quality control on the work.

Yes, I've seen actual 33.3K modems used to transmit real estate orders to GSE enterprises. Most companies now communicate with those mainframes with the packets encapsulated over TCP/IP. Taxpayer money (30 million) was spent to port the tasks over to Java. After the money was sent to India, the port didn't work so they remained with the mainframe and outsourced it to CGI.

Sigh, that was 5 years ago. I remember back when 30 million was a lot of money...

PolishKnight says

es, I've seen actual 33.3K modems

That would be impressive. I've only ever seen 33.6K ones.

PolishKnight says

I've dealt with auditors. A "good" auditor is a matter of definition. By the terms of the big auditing companies, a "good" auditor generates tons of work for the company being audited to justify their audits. Efficiency experts also seek to justify layoffs whether it makes the company more efficient or not. Lawyers sue companies not to make the companies more responsible and save consumers money, but rather to make a lot of money in legal fees.

If that's your take on this, it sounds like you've only dealt with shitty CFOs who can't manage their auditors and shitty auditors, and also shitty General Counsels who can't manage outside law firms and shitty lawyers.

Rin says

Today, that's nearly 100% of the my job.

So yeah, Sales! Sales! Sales! I'm not the Wolf but perhaps, a Bobcat of Wall Street :-)

So if you're so awesome because you only deal with sales now, what's going to happen when there's no one to consume things, which seems to be the case according to your vision?

Rin says

Today, with the resurgence of the energy sector, they are primarily hired to help support fracking operations and transport but many alternate engineers: mechanical, civil, petroleum, geologist, etc are also involved there. The US has not build a new refinery since the late 70s. I'm hearing that there are plans on the drawing board but that's from a design firm, which had shed up to 80% of their headcount since the mid-80s. If these go through, great, some jobs for a decade but then what?

I think you misunderstood the use of the index. These are jobs that are less susceptible to automation. It doesn't dictate what depend for these jobs may or may not be in the future. However, the increasing pay of ChemE and petroleum engineers suggests that they're doing okay so far.

ask yourself this -- how many companies make products which are bought by robots?

I still don't see the endgame of total automation.

Most of our companies produce products for a vast global marketplace.

Smartphones, automobiles...

Much of that technology and industry is used either business to busines (B2B) or in the service of work (commuter cars on highways or rush hour trains).

Humans are not only the workers, but the consumers of that work. Even javascript coders are employed to serve millions who order clothing on Amazon. No paychecks, no millions...no e-commerce?

Or if Robots replace humans in building cars, then people don't have to drive cars to the factory where the cars are built.

And so on...

So is robotization really de-industrialization?

Solar, wind and hydrogen as an energy source falls into this category as well.

If we don't have to mine energy, or build equipment to mine it, then we don't need the gasoline to power the dump trucks and oil rigs.

What do we do all day, and how many of us, are the big questions.

corntrollio says

Rin says

Today, that's nearly 100% of the my job.

So yeah, Sales! Sales! Sales! I'm not the Wolf but perhaps, a Bobcat of Wall Street :-)

So if you're so awesome because you only deal with sales now, what's going to happen when there's no one to consume things, which seems to be the case according to your vision?

It's called an exit strategy. Very few ppl in the sort of prop trading/hedge fund world plans to do it till the golden years. It's about getting in, making a lot of cash while the going is good, and then, exiting for either full retirement or some sort of part-time consulting work.

I'm seeing myself as among the last batches of ppl, who'll be able to find work, as future generations will find more and more of the paying tasks automated.

corntrollio says

Rin says

Today, with the resurgence of the energy sector, they are primarily hired to help support fracking operations and transport but many alternate engineers: mechanical, civil, petroleum, geologist, etc are also involved there.

I think you misunderstood the use of the index. These are jobs that are less susceptible to automation. It doesn't dictate what depend for these jobs may or may not be in the future. However, the increasing pay of ChemE and petroleum engineers suggests that they're doing okay so far.

What makes you think that the current oil patch boom can't experience automation, as AI/vision processing algorithms improve? What geologists & petroleum engineers do is take samples and analyze the yield characteristics and production dynamics. In fact, when the computer science folks have a vision processing algo of the caliber it takes to make real-time analysis of the materials in the well, I could probably get together a team of engineers and help develop the rules so that the software could do that work, without having a major cast and crew surrounding the project. For my current job, that's sort of what I did with our risk assessment and audit tools, so that I could shift more into sales and client support. A business executive does not think about labor, he thinks about bring money to the table, and thus, if he's discovered that all he needed were 5 tech crew per well, as oppose to let's say 50, he'd pocket the difference. And given the kinds of salaries they make in the Dakotas, that 45 headcount is probably over $10M per year not including benefits and insurance/liability overhead.

Rin says

What makes you think that the current oil patch boom can't experience automation, as AI/vision processing algorithms improve? What geologists & petroleum engineers do is take samples and analyze the yield characteristics and production dynamics. In fact, when the computer science folks have a vision processing algo of the caliber it takes to make real-time analysis of the materials in the well, I could probably get together a team of engineers and help develop the rules so that the software could do that work, without having a major cast and crew surrounding the project.

You say so, but petroleum engineers' salaries keep going up for a reason. Are you saying that the CEOs aren't imaginative enough?

Also, I'm not saying it can't -- the index is saying it's less likely.

corntrollio says

You say so, but petroleum engineers' salaries keep going up for a reason. Are you saying that the CEOs aren't imaginative enough?

Also, I'm not saying it can't -- the index is saying it's less likely.

The salaries are high because the price of the barrel is high. We had an oil patch boom/bust cycle during my dad's peak working generation between the 70s and the early 80s. During the height of the bust, circa mid-80s, places like Houston & Dallas were in a major depression with energy companies shedding up to 40% of their respective headcounts. A lot of those folks re-located to the east coast, to work in hi-tech or local power generation/constructions, as their prior careers had imploded. Some of 'em were my dad's friends from earlier times.

In addition, right now, we're in a nascent phase of automation. At best, telephone switches are the best implementation of the prior era's nascent phase, as the need for live operators had crashed between the 1920s and 1960s, despite the meteoric growth of the telecom sectors. Likewise, as vision processing/AI improves and cost per CPU continue to go down, even more tasks will be automated.

And no, CEOs aren't that imaginative nor smart. They're just type A personalities with connections.

corntrollio says

es, I've seen actual 33.3K modems

That would be impressive. I've only ever seen 33.6K ones.

I was typing quickly (hit the 3 three times) but if that really matters, sure, it's 33.6K.

This kind of attention to inane detail reminds me of my dealing with security auditors. They worried about making sure the passwords were at least 8 characters long and changed every 3 months, but no concern for whether the stored passwords could get stolen in the first place.

Rin says

Likewise, as vision processing/AI improves and cost per CPU continue to go down, even more tasks will be automated.

I would love to see an irobot that can sort my socks from the laundry! :-)

There has been talk of robots eventually being able to pick lettuce and other agricultural duties that have been given to illegals for them to do for 20 years or so before they on welfare for the rest of their lives. Hopefully, the robots won't figure out that scam. :-)

All that said, it's not uncommon for people to overhype technology. Face recognition software has been around for a long time, but except for the sci-fi scenarios, I've not read of any fugitives getting nabbed by it yet. And the word "cloud" has replaced "hi-def" as a buzzword.

PolishKnight says

This kind of attention to inane detail reminds me of my dealing with security auditors.

Nice attempt to detract from your made-up anecdote, but okay -- I'm more than fine with having attention to detail.

corntrollio says

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-less

In addition, the article points out that previous technological innovations has usually resulted in higher employment and higher wages after a period of adjustment.

*** This is an absolutely wonderful article. Thanks for posting.
*** Wether you are a Bull, a Bear, or a Pig, I urge everyone to read it.

from the article:
"One of the worries Keynes admitted was a “new disease”: “technological unemployment…due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.” "

What worries me is the rate of technological change increasing at a faster clip. It could cause society a lot of problems. I would say international trade increasing too fast could cause similar problems. Nevertheless, I remain a strong supporter of both.

PolishKnight says

Face recognition software has been around for a long time, but except for the sci-fi scenarios, I've not read of any fugitives getting nabbed by it yet.

Give it 10-15 years. In fact, that type of security based software is highly sought after by law enforcement and security firms. The problem with let's call it the Minsky AI hype of the 80s, was that they were attempting to perform a carte blanche study of the human brain with limited software and hardware. Facial recognition software was also hampered by the need to use stereoscopic depiction with more than one camera for detailed analysis. In essence, that software was hokey for a single camera system until now.

Strategist says

What worries me is the rate of technological change increasing at a faster clip

And that's a big part of the issue. If you look at let's say the so-called average white collar job, what part of it is so unique, that only a person could do it? Plus, how often does a job become the same old, same old for the avg person? Usually, that happens within 3-4 years of employment.

And that's the major issue on the horizon. If you walk around, office to office, you could see that many tasks could be automated. When I'd first started in an R&D pilot plant, the ppl there thought that Excel was a database, because it had stored data. And these were scientists and engineers. They seldom even considered the idea that all of their pilot trials, could have automated data collection, sampling, etc, and have a type of semi-permanent existence on an Oracle server. Instead, there was a myriad of ppl hanging around, doing ordinary stuff. Once I began to slowly see that, as well as places where I'd consulted for in regular IT, like insurance, telecom, etc, I started getting worried.

I knew that ppl were not all that special and that this credo of *ppl are creative a/o some Leonardo DaVinci* type of free thinker *which will save our jobs*, are the exceptions to the rule and not the normal worker bee.

Rin says

When I'd first started in an R&D pilot plant, the ppl there thought that Excel was a database, because it had stored data. And these were scientists and engineers.

LOL, they probably used slide rules. A fifth grader armed with a calculator from the 99 cent store could replace them.

Strategist says

Rin says

When I'd first started in an R&D pilot plant, the ppl there thought that Excel was a database, because it had stored data. And these were scientists and engineers.

LOL, they probably used slide rules. A fifth grader armed with a calculator from the 99 cent store could replace them.

Hey, for them, they'd write the numbers down on a notepad and then, input it into an Excel spreadsheet.

Supposedly, their analysis of the data is what made 'em special but I saw similar patterns... yield, degradation, high molecular waste, and a few other important data points. All of that is learn-able by an undergrad student in the sciences.

Rin says

LOL, they probably used slide rules. A fifth grader armed with a calculator from the 99 cent store could replace them.

Hey, for them, they'd write the numbers down on a notepad and then, input it into an Excel spreadsheet.

Supposedly, their analysis of the data is what made 'em special

I know. I have nothing but the highest respect for scientists.
Thank you and keep up the good work. We need you.

Just so you know, I'm the messenger here.

I did not create the executive suites in America and thus, I don't have control on how CEOs and other C levels behave.

With that said, as many of us are technical staff... I'm a techie as well (who's now on the business side), the work we do will eventually be written down, recorded, and sent over to some machine learning algo. So while we may feel safe, temporarily, as expert system apps grow, our services will be rendered obsolete.

I'd spoken to a C level exec about audit automation, he himself being an experienced CPA with executive B-school (plus NYU law graduate) and even he concurred that up to 80%+ of audit jobs could be eliminated in time, if Watson or next gen "Google Brain" lives up to its potential as a correlation/causation type of service bureau. And yes, it'll be very disruptive to an entire generation of folks, studying to want to take the CPA exam in 20 years, as there probably won't be many jobs for them, since the ppl who'll survive the automation carnage, would be the most experience ppl in the field.

One pig in the python will be voice recognition (VR).

Either VR is asymptotically improving towards 100% recognition, or it's asymptotically improving towards 89% recognition. There's a reason video captioners, court reporters, and CART transcribers earn a good living: real-time VR is still a joke.

Turning the sound of the human voice into words, consistently and reliably, by computer, is extremely difficult.

Strategist says

I know. I have nothing but the highest respect for scientists.

Thank you and keep up the good work. We need you.

You might think you’re just a gear in the machine, but that’s not true. Gears are delicate, important, and expensive to replace.

Perfect For:

*Machinists with quirky senses of humor
*Workers who have nothing to lose but their chains, their salaries, their health insurance, their ability to support their families, their self-worth, and their reason to go on living
*Disaffected college students

http://www.despair.com/worth.html

New Renter says

You might think you’re just a gear in the machine, but that’s not true. Gears are delicate, important, and expensive to replace.

I advocate the notion of being independently wealthy and/or putting everyone on welfare, starting with the scientists.

New Renter says

You might think you’re just a gear in the machine, but that’s not true. Gears are delicate, important, and expensive to replace.

One malfunctioning gear could bring down a space shuttle.

Strategist says

could bring down a space shuttle.

Seems like it's happened twice.

Rin says

Strategist says

could bring down a space shuttle.

Seems like it's happened twice.

Its happened each and every time. Every shuttle ever launched has come down in one form or another.

Gears got nothing on gravity!

BTW, a lot of ppl have finally told me that they can afford their kids.

When they were young, dumb, and full of c`m, they thought having a family would be fun and romantic. Now that none of my crowd is in their 20s anymore, there are very few idealistic folks left.

New Renter says

Rin says

they thought having a family would be fun and romantic. Now that none of my crowd is in their 20s anymore, there are very few idealistic folks left.

In your mid-30s, if you haven't had kids or bought a house to make you cynical, there's always the alternative of liquor, empty career climbing, bored world travel, and having only each other to stare at every night.

Occasionally, in the throes of ennui, we will do things like make up combinations of our dog's name and the word "burrito", or secretly delete each other's DVR shows while the other is off mixing a drink in the dining room. When we are ultimately replaced by robots, we will have even more time for these desperate peccadillos.

Philistine says

, if you haven't had kids or bought a house to make you cynical

Well, I'd bought a home w/o kids and it feels great. I've got gym equipment, books, and computing components, all over the place minus the dining & kitchen areas. None of those meddling toys and silly stuff, which kids leave all over the place.

Philistine says

alternative of liquor, empty career climbing, bored world travel, and having only each other to stare at every night.

One can drink periodically, study the applied sciences, go to some of the world's finest broth#ls, and engage one's true interests in life as well.