patrick.net

thunderlips11 says

Yep, Strategist, We must have low wages at any cost - no matter how many other problems they might create!

There should be a lower minimum wage for teenagers. We don't want them on the streets. They belong in school or at work.

Save the buggy whip makers!

Automan Empire says

Save the buggy whip makers!

Nice historical reference.

I guess it does apply. Personally I'd rather use a machine to order food than try to make it clear to the ESL trainee who will then screw it up out of spite because we couldn't understand each other.

Certain jobs should go away. Especially the sort which people don't enjoy. The problem comes in finding employment for people, and training them for it. Te capitalist market seems remarkably poor at accomplishing this, especially in a world of rapidly changing technology. Jobs that were critical one year can be obsolete in two more. And everyone wants someone with experience in whatever brand new tech is all the current rage.

Strategist says

The robots will be even more cost effective the moment $15.00 per hour becomes a reality.

Many corporations will continue to use humans out of goodwill and because there will be peer pressure to be good corporate citizens, for the sake of the demand side of our economy.

It will also be done because as things become more automated, going to a fast food restaurant where you get service from a person will be seen as a plus that justifies the additional cost.

This is true for many other businesses too, and this is why so many people are greatly overestimating the amount of jobs that will be lost to automation.

(not to suggest that the job losses due to continued automation won't be significant)

My first job in high school was selling tools at Sears. I made 8% commission and averaged $15/hour. That was big bucks way back in 1994--especially for a high school chump. But I hussled and knew my shit and treated customers with care.

You walk into a Coffee Bean today and the schlub-o behind the counter speaks with no detectable grammar, screws up your order, and can't even make eye contact. I'm just not sure paying him $15/hour is going to fix any of that.

Philistine says

You walk into a Coffee Bean today and the schlub-o behind the counter speaks with no detectable grammar, screws up your order, and can't even make eye contact. I'm just not sure paying him $15/hour is going to fix any of that.

He also doesn't make a commission, hell he doesn't even get the same hours each week, they can go from 40 to 15 and back again. Surprise! He's stressed and surly.

Once upon a time most service people either worked at a family business, or made a commission. Surprise! Commissioned staff have a bigger stake in selling, so they are more helpful.

marcus says

Many corporations will continue to use humans out of goodwill and because there will be peer pressure to be good corporate citizens, for the sake of the demand side of our economy.

Huh? Peer pressure, this is corporate America, not the hallway in some high school.

I am directly under the principal senior partners and there is no talk about adding employees for the sake of appearances. It's more that our existing crew, fits the profile of the image which our firm projects. Thus, if we can do it all with only 30-40 employees, as oppose to 100, then that's best. We're lean & thus, have more profits to share to our clients. Granted, it's a half-truth, as the traders get a bigger slice, when all is said and done, but the gimmick does work.

Likewise, until the customer base starts to go ape sh*t on the robots, corporate America will not revert back to human labor, esp once strong AI becomes cheap & mainstream and no longer acts or sounds like Stephen Hawking's wheelchair chatterbox.

marcus says

Strategist says

The robots will be even more cost effective the moment $15.00 per hour becomes a reality.

Many corporations will continue to use humans out of goodwill and because there will be peer pressure to be good corporate citizens, for the sake of the demand side of our economy.

It will also be done because as things become more automated, going to a fast food restaurant where you get service from a person will be seen as a plus that justifies the additional cost.

This is true for many other businesses too, and this is why so many people are greatly overestimating the amount of jobs that will be lost to automation.

(not to suggest that the job losses due to continued automation won't be significant)

You forget....profits come first, not charity.
Any charity is no different then advertising to put lipstick on a pig

Stock market has a dichotomy - it cheers on an idividual company basis when company lays people off but also cheers when the economy adds jobs in aggregate.

dublin hillz says

Stock market has a dichotomy - it cheers on an idividual company basis when company lays people off but also cheers when the economy adds jobs in aggregate.

Yes, a lay off is interpreted as a lean & mean company, a microeconomics perspective of efficiency and productivity.

Aggregate job loss, however, is the macroeconomics of an overall contracting market.

marcus says

Strategist says

The robots will be even more cost effective the moment $15.00 per hour becomes a reality.

Many corporations will continue to use humans out of goodwill and because there will be peer pressure to be good corporate citizens, for the sake of the demand side of our economy.

It will also be done because as things become more automated, going to a fast food restaurant where you get service from a person will be seen as a plus that justifies the additional cost.

This is true for many other businesses too, and this is why so many people are greatly overestimating the amount of jobs that will be lost to automation.

(not to suggest that the job losses due to continued automation won't be significant)

Tee hee.

Such a idealistic simpleton.

It's already happening and won't stop. Self checkout at stores has bugs at the moment, but that won't last long. Dopes vote contracts leading to their demise. Hope every grocery Bagger is going to college or trade school. Or formulates an awesome plan to win the lotto.

Downtown LA parking attendents must know what the dinosaurs felt like. Two years ago there were hundreds of em. Now there's just a handful and a plethora of automated machines. All those jobs...poof.

dodgerfanjohn says

It's already happening and won't stop. Self checkout at stores has bugs at the moment, but that won't last long.

In twenty years, the store itself may be fully automated, like Amazon's warehouses are slowly becoming. Busy ppl will order their groceries from their tablets/smart phones and when they arrive curbside, a robot will bring their bags to the car.

Rin says

dodgerfanjohn says

It's already happening and won't stop. Self checkout at stores has bugs at the moment, but that won't last long.

In twenty years, the store itself may be fully automated, like Amazon's warehouses are slowly becoming. Busy ppl will order their groceries from their tablets/smart phones and when they arrive curbside, a robot will bring their bags to the car.

The drones will deliver them in 10 min
No tip required.
They also have technology where everything in a cart can be priced all at once.

Strategist says

The drones will deliver them in 10 min

No tip required.

They also have technology where everything in a cart can be priced all at once.

Ok, so there you have it, even more efficient than an old fashion store. It's wholesale to customer direct.

Rin says

Strategist says

The drones will deliver them in 10 min

No tip required.

They also have technology where everything in a cart can be priced all at once.

Ok, so there you have it, even more efficient than an old fashion store. It's wholesale to customer direct.

So where will the jobs be?

Strategist says

So where will the jobs be?

Read all about it on my thread here ...

/?p=1243034

Millennials will be the 1st generation to see the end of work

The primary thing which defines the WWII & Boomers was that they were the generations which had actually experienced an era where one's labor was of value to society. And this, coupled with a proliferation of infrastructure and widespread use of technologies, gave them the greatest opportunities in life.

Then, something changed ... the development of information technologies and the automation of work. In the beginning, it was small stuff like calculators replacing slide rulers but then, it had expanded all over the place. Today, Gen X, as it's entering full adulthood, will be seeing many jobs disappear by retirement. In fact, I'm convinced that if one doesn't make money in the next 20 to 30 years, it's game over.

Thus, Millenials despite all their adoration for smart phones and automation tools, will see that their actual work is of no value. A certain percent of them, like 1% to 3%, will be architects of high end robots/AI tools but a vast majority, will be getting laid off, in place of automated systems, which can do former white collar tasks like market analysis and portfolio management.

My hope is that I'm safely tucked away in some New England town, with robot sentries, guarding my residence. I suspect that Millenials will be wanting to rob me, since it'll be clear to them, that I'm one of those, who'd survived the age of automation to retire comfortably.

dodgerfanjohn says

Downtown LA parking attendents must know what the dinosaurs felt like. Two years ago there were hundreds of em. Now there's just a handful and a plethora of automated machines. All those jobs...poof.

Yay! Growing population, less jobs, and resistance to basic income. Sounds like a recipe for happiness and the greatest good.

Strategist says: The drones will deliver them in 10 min
Ever been hit by a six pack dropped from 400 feet? I have more faith that they'll be delivered by an autonomous, driveless vehicle on the roads.

Rin says

Ok, so there you have it, even more efficient than an old fashion store. It's wholesale to customer direct.

Yeah, and it cuts out the union thugs that currently do the deliveries!

In other (completely unrelated) news, Homeland Security places an order for 1.6 billion rounds of .40 caliber bullets.

zzyzzx says

Rin says

Ok, so there you have it, even more efficient than an old fashion store. It's wholesale to customer direct.

Yeah, and it cuts out the union thugs that currently do the deliveries!

UPS workers are union?

Rin says

My hope is that I'm safely tucked away in some New England town, with robot sentries, guarding my residence. I suspect that Millenials will be wanting to rob me, since it'll be clear to them, that I'm one of those, who'd survived the age of automation to retire comfortably.

I just want to make sure my kids are OK.

EBGuy says

Strategist says: The drones will deliver them in 10 min

Ever been hit by a six pack dropped from 400 feet? I have more faith that they'll be delivered by an autonomous, driveless vehicle on the roads.

ha ha ha. Back to the drawing board.
How bout a little parachute?

If something is not done soon, from a political action p.o.v., we will have a complete dystopia come 2040.

My sentries will have to open fire on intruders or at least taser them.

I keep thinking of that scene from Aliens where the remote machine gun runs out of Ammo. Hunger makes people go apeshit. On the other hand, I guess they'll keep the food stamps.

Rin says

If something is not done soon, from a political action p.o.v., we will have a complete dystopia come 2040.

My sentries will have to open fire on intruders or at least taser them.

If the milleniums can penetrate national defenses, they can easily penetrate yours. Your sentries could turn against you.
Hope you have a plan B.

Bubbabear says

Robots Replacing Warehouse Workers And Fast Food Employees

Yes, and in the no-so-distant future, the masses will be able to buy robotic food preparers and no one will have to go to McDonald's again for fast food, or better yet, real food.

Technology available to corporations today will be available to consumers tomorrow.

Rin says

If something is not done soon, from a political action p.o.v., we will have a complete dystopia come 2040.

My sentries will have to open fire on intruders or at least taser them.

The politicians are the ones creating the dystopia.

Rin says

dublin hillz says

Stock market has a dichotomy - it cheers on an idividual company basis when company lays people off but also cheers when the economy adds jobs in aggregate.

Yes, a lay off is interpreted as a lean & mean company, a microeconomics perspective of efficiency and productivity.

Aggregate job loss, however, is the macroeconomics of an overall contracting market.

It sounds a lot like Keynes' paradox of thrift. An individual company that cuts staff without losing productivity is a virtue. A whole economy of them and there's trouble.

Strategist says

Rin says

If something is not done soon, from a political action p.o.v., we will have a complete dystopia come 2040.

My sentries will have to open fire on intruders or at least taser them.

If the milleniums can penetrate national defenses, they can easily penetrate yours. Your sentries could turn against you.

Hope you have a plan B.

I agree. Hacktivists, not activists, are the real hope for the 21st century. For me, this is where the Millennial's promise shines through.

thunderlips11 says

He also doesn't make a commission

That's my point. If people want better wages, they need to move on from the McDo's burger clerking job--or accept that they are not capable/don't want to. Just asking for a 40% pay raise doesn't mean you are going to get it.

You might have been surprised how many slackers I worked that first high school job with. Even on commission they hung out in the stockroom for their min wage draw until they got canned for "performance". They had no more fire than that Coffee Bean slinger does today. Wages and productivity are a two-way street.

Philistine says

They had no more fire than that Coffee Bean slinger does today.

A 12oz package of coffee can easily last me for 2 weeks. Why the heck would I pay the "slinger's" company a hefty premium to make it for me when all I gotta do is brew it for a few minutes in french press and transfer it to reusable container on my way out in the morning?

Philistine says

That's my point. If people want better wages, they need to move on from the McDo's burger clerking job--or accept that they are not capable/don't want to. Just asking for a 40% pay raise doesn't mean you are going to get it.

I hear you. My point is that there's very few commission-based jobs available, and certainly not enough based on the population.

We're still laboring under a 1950s regime that says if you pick up a few courses at night school, keep your feodora clean, and go to the boss ready to do a fair day's work, the sky's the limit. We simply aren't creating enough middle class jobs for those who are keeping their fedora clean.

We're already at the point where jobs that were open to the barely literate 30-40 years ago, like answering phone calls or selling used cars, are now demanding Bachelor's degrees. Our own commitment to education has resulted in the educated becoming less valuable due to supply outmatching demand.

Rin says

Huh? Peer pressure, this is corporate America, not the hallway in some high school.

Call it peer pressure, or political pressure or PR even. It's sort of like the pressure that companies feel not to cheat around EPA regulations in ways that would be devastating to the environment (just because it would be profitable), but also devastating to their reputation if they got caught, for example dumping toxic waste in a local clean river or lake.

Once it's understood that decreasing employment is bad for the economy, corporations will feel obliged to do their part. Not hiring as charity, but simply not going to the extreme with automation.

Strategist says

You forget....profits come first, not charity.

I addressed this above.

But the other thing that will happen is that companies will often choose people to the extent that they need to for their business. For example the degree to which corporate operators have been replaced by automated systems and menus has already reached it's peak.

When I call in to a company for whatever, I often want to speak to a person, to discuss my very specific issue, and not wade through 7 layer of menus to not even get my question or issue death with. IT's inefficient.

People like dealing with people for many things, especially services that are complicated and or that require individualized attention.

dublin hillz says

Philistine says

They had no more fire than that Coffee Bean slinger does today.

A 12oz package of coffee can easily last me for 2 weeks. Why the heck would I pay the "slinger's" company a hefty premium to make it for me when all I gotta do is brew it for a few minutes in french press and transfer it to reusable container on my way out in the morning?

Ya, the way that people "save time" by spending fifteen minutes at Starbucks each morning instead of taking three to brew their own, and pay so much more, just makes me scratch my head.
I get a perfectly great cup of coffee by pouring grounds into the k-cup thing and pressing "start." Add milk and some stevia and hit the road!

Quigley says

Ya, the way that people "save time" by spending fifteen minutes at Starbucks each morning instead of taking three to brew their own, and pay so much more, just makes me scratch my head.

I've got you all beat, I wake up, pop a NoDoz, do a few pushups, shower, and head for the office.

Got my caffeine ingestion down to 2-3 sec.

marcus says

For example the degree to which corporate operators have been replaced by automated systems and menus has already reached it's peak.

We're still living in a pre-strong AI world and thus, most technologies will have a present day saturation point.

The IBM Watson server, applied to let's say actuarial support, will be a starting point towards the tipping point where you don't need most ppl in white collar types of occupations.

Eventually, via analyzing the conversations of hundreds of millions of calls, from the database of recordings which are being formed today, it'll learn how to solve 99% of ppl's requests, w/o needing to transfer to a live person. That phenomena is only some 15 to 20 years away.

Rin says

The IBM Watson server, applied to let's say actuarial support, will be a starting point towards the tipping point where you don't need most ppl in white collar types of occupations.

I don't question whether it will become technologically possible to replace most white collar jobs with computers, and profitably (in the short term).

What I'm thinking is that somehow, this may become taboo in a sense, right around the time of that tipping point, or shortly before. One way this could occur would be if people choose to do business with companies simply because they use people. Even to pay a premium for that.

Even companies that mostly do business with other companies, if they know that ultimately demand can be traced down to the human level, and if they know that demand is needed for the economy to function, then they can agree in much the same way that people agree that polluting the local water supply is not cool, to use people even when automation is cheaper.

Who knows. Maybe it will even need to become law, as bizarre as that sounds. Everyone does their share to keep the people employed. It will be seen as better (and cheaper) than paying taxes to put everyone on the dole. Especially since without demand, they can't even make the money to pay those taxes.

The alternative would be to let the government solve the problem by having a sufficient number of government jobs to pick up the slack. I'm working under the assumption that the corporations might be able to make better use of the people. That assumption may be wrong.

Rin says

Then, something changed ... the development of information technologies and the automation of work. In the beginning, it was small stuff like calculators replacing slide rulers but then, it had expanded all over the place. Today, Gen X, as it's entering full adulthood, will be seeing many jobs disappear by retirement. In fact, I'm convinced that if one doesn't make money in the next 20 to 30 years, it's game over.

Changing technology has been with us ever since they invented the wheel. Workers in dying technologies will always be susceptible to being laid off, retraining and retirement. New generations come in and learn new skill and get jobs that never existed before. The real PROBLEM from my POV is the speed at which new technologies displace old ones. If the speed is slow enough or new skills are easily learnt the damage is contained. If not, we as a society are in trouble. We need an emphasis in job retraining, cutting back the work week and early retirement as they do in Europe to provide more opportunities to more people.

Strategist says

cutting back the work week and early retirement as they do in Europe to provide
more opportunities to more people.

That would require that pensions in the private sector return. However, currently only 18% of private sector employees have one. 401Ks are not even eligible to be withdrawn without penalty b4 age 59.5 so they are at best a bridge until social security for the early retirement purposes.