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He's right, you can google the relevant recent studies yourself.
You seem to have a newer version of google than I do.
which references this study:
http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/179/Supplement_1/S36.long
Vicente
2014 Oct 4, 9:30am
BTW, what happened to the "Obama plays golf" outrage?
Teabaggers and Freepers don't have time for that any more.
They are too busy trembling in fear that anyone they touch might have Ebola, and pounding on keyboards about how Obama is clearly not qualified to handle the greatest threat the Republic has ever faced.
"We should man up and nuke Liberia...." is how Republicans show their humanitarian concern. They are all about alleviating suffering. Bonus points for brown people.
It's too much to expect the usual pleasantries.
HydroCabron
2014 Oct 4, 10:19am
which references this study:
http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/179/Supplement_1/S36.long
Which says jack-all about the transmission of Ebola by infected, yet asymptomatic people. It even reinforces the current consensus with this statement:
A study showed that direct physical contact with an infected person during the clinically apparent phase of illness was the most important risk factor for secondary household transmission of EHF during the Kikwit outbreak
"During the clinically apparent phase of illness" means when symptoms are present.
The study is about detection through skin antigens.
The finding of abundant viral antigens and particles in the skin of EHF patients suggests an epidemiologic role for contact transmission.
Was this the purple passage? It says nothing about when, in the cycle of infection, an infected person is contagious.
Which says jack-all about the transmission of Ebola by infected, yet asymptomatic people. It even reinforces the current consensus with this statement:
5 were asymptomatic for Ebola (they may have had other symptoms)
Was this the purple passage? It says nothing about when, in the cycle of infection, that the patient is contagious.
It's a risk, albeit low. Nothing else was claimed. Hence the recommendation in the first article to avoid close contact with infected (not just symptomatic) people. No reason to panic, but claiming that it cannot be transmitted until the patient is clearly sick is plain false.
HydroCabron
2014 Oct 4, 11:20am
5 were asymptomatic for Ebola (they may have had other symptoms)
They had ebola. They were dead - 18 of 19 of them. The paper says nothing about who they transmitted ebola to, or if there is any evidence that they did, or who transmitted ebola to them, and whether or not those people were symptomatic.
but claiming that it cannot be transmitted until the patient is clearly sick is plain false.
It may indeed be false. Got any evidence that it is?
John Bailo
2014 Oct 4, 4:44pm
I really want to worry about Ebola...but I smelled this horrible chemical smell coming through my bedroom window. Thinking it was my neighbors pouring something like carpet cleaner down the drain, I went out to inspect and yes it was in the air.
Then to catch a freeze breeze I took a drive around the neighborhood and it was everywhere. A chemical, acrid fume, suffused in light fog, that burned my eyes and throat. I had to travel around a mile to get away from it.
By the time I got back, 20 minutes later it had kind of dispersed but I still taste it.
The thing is, I experience pollution like this all the time, even on normal days. There is no way to complain, and no one to complain to. It must be some large entity dumping something, but how to find it. And raise your hands if you think that should I find it, someone would ever do anything about it.
When I hear about "international global crises" that may or may not affect me by some long odds, or some doomsday prophecy that we have no way of preventing even it were to happen, I have to say, "yes, but what about today, and the the here and now. What about fixing the things that should be fixed, and that make life worth living".
Put another way, when you live on a dung heap, you rarely worry about a skunk walking by.
Wow. That's some cutting-edge virological research there. Large sample, high-correlation, with solid t-values. Publish that in Nature!
The phrase "you would think" superceeds all scientific research for a certain subset of posters.
I think I'll concentrate on worrying about real risks. Like being hit by lightning while fighting off a shark attack.
PeopleUnited
2014 Oct 5, 1:48am
Rew said: "I think it's fine to keep one eye on the news, but I also realize the agendas and general propensity to sell a big load of sensationalism out there. The last time we were close to this level of fear was with this incident ..."
Too bad more people don't apply this reasoning to the climate change scare tactics as well.
HydroCabron
2014 Oct 5, 2:27am
Too bad more people don't apply this reasoning to the climate change scare tactics as well.
Yes: for now you can equate the two issues.
You shouldn't sweat global warming at this point. You will understand these things better later on, when you finish high school.
HydroCabron
2014 Oct 5, 4:06am
when you finish high school
Said the mutt...
You should be nicer to people with normal-sized family trees and four distinct grandparents. I know your family looks down on us - an understandable defense mechanism - but there are a lot of us, and we enjoy advantages like a full set of fingers and a chin.
indigenous
2014 Oct 5, 4:12am
You should be nicer to people with normal-sized family trees and four distinct grandparents. I know your family looks down on them - an understandable defense mechanism - but there are a lot of us, and we enjoy advantages like a full set of fingers and a chin.
Said the mutt,
BTW being a mutt has nothing to do with genetics, it has to do with swallowering the kool aid, without the slightest nod to validity.
Rew
2014 Oct 6, 5:54am
Rew said: "I think it's fine to keep one eye on the news, but I also realize the agendas and general propensity to sell a big load of sensationalism out there. The last time we were close to this level of fear was with this incident ..."
Too bad more people don't apply this reasoning to the climate change scare tactics as well.
Current Ebola Outbreak - Affecting individuals and small populations, killing currently 3000+ people. There are visible health affects that can directly be attributed to the disease and direct action being taken to control and stop the disease. There is a wide held, general plan, for containing and addressing the threat.
Climate Change/Global Warming - Potentially causes extinction of the Human race or dramatically degrades our way of life. Current symptoms are climate trend data and more extreme weather phenomena, and these effects are not personally immediate or as tangible. Lots of talk but only slight action being taken by individuals or a few countries. There is no general widely approved plan to deal with the threat.
No need to garner panic in either, but that's not an apples to apples comparison. Global warming and climate change, because it is a slow build up threat, with no current plan for sustained action to combat it, needs much more evangelism and pushing. Maybe a more fare comparison would be something like if everyone on the planet had heart disease and we could only cure each other by mass coordinated action.
MisdemeanorRebel
2014 Oct 6, 6:04am
Wait, the Freepers/Teabaggers have the balls to go after Obama golfing?
Wasn't there a recent President who racked up the all-time record for Presidential vacations?
HydroCabron
2014 Oct 6, 6:07am
Wait, the Freepers/Teabaggers have the balls to go after Obama golfing?
Yep. "Hypocrisy" is not an entry in the English-to-Teabagger dictionary, because they don't grock the concept.
The golf outrage replaced the teleprompter jokes that were no longer polling well in the Luntz focus groups. Interesting that the teleprompter was also a crutch of St. Reagan, no?
Tenpoundbass
2014 Oct 6, 6:18am
Wait, the Freepers/Teabaggers have the balls to go after Obama golfing?
Yep. "Hypocrisy" is not an entry in the English-to-Teabagger dictionary, because they don't grock the concept.
Nuttin' for Nuttin' but I don't remember Bush running on "Change".
"Yes we can say we will"
HydroCabron
2014 Oct 6, 6:33am
but I don't remember Bush running on "Change".
Ja: He ran on restoring honor and dignity to the White House, as well as an end to nation-building, and the creation of an Ownership Society.
Current Ebola Outbreak - Affecting individuals and small populations, killing currently 3000+ people. There are visible health affects that can directly be attributed to the disease and direct action being taken to control and stop the disease. There is a wide held, general plan, for containing and addressing the threat.
Climate Change/Global Warming - Potentially causes extinction of the Human race or dramatically degrades our way of life. Current symptoms are climate trend data and more extreme weather phenomena, and these effects are not personally immediate or as tangible. Lots of talk but only slight action being taken by individuals or a few countries. There is no general widely approved plan to deal with the threat.
The problem with this comparison is that you can debate all day long whether deaths linked to a temporary climate phenomenon are actually due to global warming vs natural occurring. In the case of Ebola you can be sure that if you tackle Ebola you will prevent future deaths due to Ebola.
Tenpoundbass
2014 Oct 6, 7:35am
He ran on restoring honor and dignity to the White House, as well as an end to nation-building, and the creation of an Ownership Society.
Well you do have to admit he certainly has no problem taking ownership of all that happened on his watch. He's never even once in hind sight put the finger on someone else for the outcomes of his exploits.
HydroCabron
2014 Oct 6, 8:03am
He's never even once in hind sight put the finger on someone else for the outcomes of his exploits.
He blamed Clinton for the economy in his first years in office, blamed Clinton for 9/11 and blamed Kerry for "talking down the economy" (how does one do that?) during the 2004 campaign.
Anyhoo, getting back to the main point: the true measure of presidential performance is whether a president blames someone else for his fuck-ups?
Sounds as if Fox has moved the goalposts to whatever place Bush can kick the ball again.
Tenpoundbass
2014 Oct 6, 8:08am
I don't know what has Fox told you?
Everyone blamed Clinton, don't forget I was a very small minority with the Dixie Chicks and Richard Gere, when everyone was screaming "USA! USA! USA!" I was one of the few, that had a low sinking feeling in my gut.
He talked smack about a rival in an election year, color me shocked?!
When did he George W. Bush ever once use his SOTU address, to bash previous presidents? At least George Bush gave regular State of the union addresses.
HydroCabron
2014 Oct 6, 8:24am
Do you REALLY want to go there?
And we have a winner!
Enlighten me: What have you been told to think this week? What're the latest outrages?
Rew
2014 Oct 6, 8:35am
The problem with this comparison is that you can debate all day long whether deaths linked to a temporary climate phenomenon are actually due to global warming vs natural occurring. In the case of Ebola you can be sure that if you tackle Ebola you will prevent future deaths due to Ebola.
Yes, that's this part ...
and these effects are not personally immediate or as tangible.
... but I'd argue no less real, or needing attention. Ebola is an immediate priority one issue to address and control, but there will always be something like that for us. We better make climate change a strong second priority, in relation to all the priority ones, because it looks like doing nothing is potentially fatal for everyone. (If we ignore Ebola, do we all die? Doubtful. Would be horrible though, yes!)
Yep, we can go with speculation (global warming) or we can go with verifiable data (Ebola deaths, counting bodies)...
You can choose....
What you call speculation, the rest of the world calls proven scientific fact (hypothesis made, tested, and conclusion found).
Yes ...
Ebola : a diseases with immediate effect, and currently 3000+ people dead.
Climate change : global warming trends, rising sea level, more extreme weather events, and potentially ends the race as we know it.
It takes a longer vision and action, something frankly only Humans could actually comprehend doing, to act against climate change. Any other "animal" will only consider short term, immediate, and instinctual needs. Then again, I'd argue the chief Human survival tactic, and why we are so successful is, because we can alter our environment (fire/clothes/houses/AC) to be more hospitable to us as a species.
If we fail to take a longer term views on custodian ship of the planet, and just in general, how we are living and setting up our children's, children's, children to live ... I think eventually we cease to be as a species. The bacteria and insects will rise to dominance then, unless you are one who already considers this planet ruled by bacteria now (a good case can be made!).
CiC : How's the validation coming with your vomit power washing picture? Looking any more credible today?
Rew
2014 Oct 6, 10:00am
CiC : How's the validation coming with your vomit power washing picture? Looking any more credible today?
I think you should stop over there and go lick the sidewalk and report back to us and let us know if it gets your seal of approval.
So that would be a no?
So that would be a no?
That would be the CIC duck and slide version of disco fever. It's the NJ version of ebola fever
ChapulinColorado
2014 Oct 7, 3:16pm
Q: Is it possible to get Ebola from just being close to anybody, like on a plane, breathing the same air?
A: No. Unequivocally not. You must be a healthcare worker properly dressed in at least STAGE/LEVEL 4 bio-warfare clothing to get infected.
Q: And it has no genetic markers this time around?
A: Correct. That's why all the black people are dying and we'll soon find out how it works on Middle Eastern folks at the hajj. Plus if you were born in Hawaii, you're immune.
Q: Then I really don't have to worry?
A: No, you can take a sex-cation to western Africa and have all the unprotected sex, spit swapping and finger lickin' good foreplay you want.
Gee thanks, Mr Wizard.
Anytime, Billy.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-06/doctor-who-discovered-ebola-1976-fears-unimaginable-tragedy
Rew
2014 Oct 8, 4:50am
Levy said that his son is “not certain†when he got the disease, but believes that he could have gotten infected by some of the spray back that came when he was using chlorine to disinfect a car.
So your case is, he isn't certain, but he thinks he got it by "spray back". Just like the Spanish nurse's aid is "not certain", so the suit must have failed.
Ebola can travel by air on droplets of fluid but it is not considered an "airborne" virus. It doesn't dry out and drift on the wind at long distances. That may be splitting hairs, but the CDC, and even USAMRIID, don't outright classify it as airborne. It can have airborne transmissions in some instances, but they are far more rare than physical contact with "hot" virus.
Do research on this ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayinga_N'Seka
(Edit: Since you love the CDC as a source here:
http://whqlibdoc.who.int/bulletin/1978/Vol56-No2/bulletin_1978_56(2)_271-293.pdf
Page 227. The nurse traveling around, that's Mayinga.)
You will find that this is the Ebola Zaire strain we know of right now and that Mayinga spent two days traveling around in a high density area, while symptomatic, even going to an emergency clinic, before she finally accepted she had contracted Ebola and checked herself into quarantine.
Guess how many people she was around, contracted Ebola Zaire, by transmission from her thereafter?
Zero.
That's not the characteristics of an airborne virus, especially one that is as contagious in small viral loads as Ebola is.
Again, to the photos, show me where someone credible is saying that vomit was present and that was a cleanup effort? Even if that was a cleanup effort, risk is going to be on the lower side to pick it up, but I don't disagree that that would be a stupid way to clean up Ebola. Good thing no vomit was present, right? (Photos of someone cleaning the sidewalk, and a bunch of panicked internet articles, do not make facts.)
HydroCabron
2014 Oct 8, 8:19am
The American journalist with Ebola who arrived at a Nebraska hospital today believes that he may have gotten infected when he got splashed while spray-washing a vehicle where someone had died from the disease.
Proof enough for me! We're all gonna die, and car wash guys will die first!
Rew
2014 Oct 8, 9:41am
You, I, nor anybody else can definitely say at this point until further research is completed. So for you to take that stand that it positively cannot be passed by airborne is pretty idiotic...
Negative. Not classified as airborne. Period. End. Done. It is not an airborne virus, though it can have airborne transmissions. I've never said it couldn't transmit through the air, I've said you power washing picture is crap and that the virus is not an airborne virus.
How does cleaning a car that had a victim of ebola in it have anything to do with a guy washing down a sidewalk?
Yes, important viruses are constantly studied for change, and the Ebola virus as we know it right now, is not and never has been classified as an "airborne" disease. That's not to say it cannot transmit that way, and people at risk of exposure don't protect themselves from that method of transmission, that is to say it is not a common or particularly effective method of transmission.
I think you will find aerosol and airborne are used almost interchangeably with regards to viruses propensity to transmit through the air.
My point is the classification is absolutely NOT airborne. That doesn't mean it doesn't spread that way, that means it is much harder/lower risk of transmission that way.
Take that versus Lassa or Hanta or any other typical airborne disease. We know Ebola. It's one of the scariest viruses on the planet and it is not an aggressive airborne transmitter.
The R0 rate for Ebola, it's replication and infections measure is right below Aids.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
Mostly because it hits so hard and fast it cannot hop around too much. It flares up, burns bright, and then typically goes back to the dark heart of Africa, in the caves and jungles it comes from.
All evidence we have, and all historical knowledge we have on this virus, says it will do the same here.
- Your power washing picture is garbage
- It's not airborne
The R0 rate for Ebola, it's replication and infections measure is right below Aids.
This is for viruses studied from previous outbreaks. This one's R0 rate is not known, esp. since it may have mutated for a while now. Most of the data cited is pretty old by now. The simple fact that this one has spread so fast to so many (without changed habits) is a sure bet that the R0 rate this time is at least somewhat higher.
Rew
2014 Oct 8, 10:12am
(without changed habits)
It's never before effected West Africans with a distrust of their government and burial rights involving touching the dead.
Edit: and it's a highly genetically similar strain of Ebola Zaire. WHO says so currently. Scientific America has a great article on why the fears over this going airborne (being more infectious) are more science fiction than science fact.
I don't argue that, honestly Ebola Zaire is one of the scariest "bugs" on the planet. My bone to pick here is people spreading internet garbage and playing into the panic our media will drum up. CiC claims he is on the same side, but I think he is not a genetically similar strain to me. ;)
HydroCabron
2014 Oct 8, 11:17am
Yep, I'll do research
Look out, everyone: He's doin' research!
Bgamall, is that you?
Please share your controlled studies with us. Where will the contagion go next?
Rew
2014 Oct 8, 12:55pm
Per WHO, this current outbreak is a variant of the ZAIRE strain...
Helping you with your emphasis. The reason being that means we already know a lot about the characteristics of this virus. It's not an unknown or new filovirus agent.
CiC claims : paraphrasing but says words to the effect of ... "some people like to bring politics into it" ... yet first replies here are all Obama-bash crap.
CiC claims he is just regurgitating what is reported on MSM, yet posts rumor mill BS power washing photos.
CiC says he thinks panic will be a worse result than any possible outbreak here (I agree), but originally has a "just you wait and see how fast this spreads" attitude. Continually now posts from a "it spreads faster and is worse" stance because this outbreak is more widespread than any before it.
Evidence is strongly suggesting that it is not because it is a "new strain" or having some new characteristics, but because it is the first time it has hit a large population, which likes to touch their dead, was slow to get awareness growing of what was happening, and has poor infrastructure and medical capacity with dense population centers.
Based on historical experience this should behave like the Zaire strands always have. Flare up, burn fast and bright, and are contained or burn themselves out as they go through all available hosts. Additionally, it will not take a strong hold in the US, Europe, or elsewhere for all the reasons that the societies, flow of information, infrastructure, and medical capabilities are different.
CiC, you can take the counter, but for Human kinds sake, you better be hoping I'm right. ;)
Rew
2014 Oct 8, 2:17pm
1) Do you dispute the WHO chart I just posted?
Nope.
2) Is it growing or slowing down in Western Africa?
Reported cases will be growing, but transmission rate is hard to measure. Unknown.
3) Has it spread to any other countries besides the Western African ones?
Yes, but very limited and isolated.
4) Is this outbreak larger or smaller than any other in the last decades?
Larger.
My turn:
1) Of all previous outbreaks has Ebola been contained?
2) Is this a new or known strain of Ebola with a close genetic history with well understood pathology and transmission?
3) Could the man cleaning the car just as easily have contracted Ebola by skin contact, poor suit removal, or any other typical touch contact?
4) Isn't it because West Africa has so many other fever like diseases, including Lassa, poor awareness of Ebola, mistrust of government, and burial practices involving touching dead bodies, the main contributing factors to why the Ebola outbreak is so bad in West Africa?
5) Is the strain airborne or known to be more infectious than any other previous strain of Ebola Zaire?
6) Why do you feel the need to post the half baked articles, and then when challenged, run to the WHO to argue over semantics?
Do the reports from the MSM scare you when they report updated or changing information?
I'm STILL waiting on your response on this:
So far the media coverage is actually pretty positive in the direction of containment. So far, of all the travel and transmission cases, we have very little secondary outbreaks in the US and Europe ... so far (we need to see in a month). Of all the people Duncan came into contact only 9 were at high risk. That's pretty darn good, and we took quick action to quarantine. Additionally, right now, that travel and exposure case so mimics Mayinga and her bout with Ebola. No additional transmissions, lots of roaming in population centers, and visits to health facilities, with no additional transmissions.
What about the Journalist who claimed he caught it from spray washing the car. Was he lying?
Lying no but he doesn't know his actual path of transmission. The same for the nurses aid in Spain and all the internet rabble about "the suit failure". This is also a side show defense for your concrete power washing photo post. It has no relation to how factual that was.
There is no "historical experience" with this sized outbreak. Can you say "Normalcy Bias" if you think it will go the same way in these urban cities.
It goes the same way, on a bigger scale. More deaths, but eventually contained. One of the reasons Ebola's R0 is so low, is because of how lethal and fast it moves. I'm no virologist, but I believe it. If the virus was contagious when people were asymptomatic, or it was airborne, different story, but we know "this bug".
Yep, they're different.... Should we review the Dallas case?
If you call 1 person, who picked up the virus from Liberia, and then traveled to die in the US the same as almost 4000 dead in West Africa ... you need a head check.
I've never taken the counter, that's only been in your delusional brain. This is what my stance has been all along:
Good. We agree on that one thing. :) Panic will be worse. Seem's you may be doing your best to spread it though.
We'll see... Nobody (including the experts) can say with certainty yet with this current outbreak (except for you)...
Certain, no. No one can be. Optimistic and confidant, yes.
You don't share that with me though, and I think your "facts" and posts are pretty well slanted toward the right wing panic and noise machine. Can you prove me wrong?
indigenous
2014 Oct 8, 2:23pm
Of all previous outbreaks has Ebola been contained?
A new word to add to the vernacular, endemic. The problem with endemic is that it gets that much more chance to mutate into an aerosol form.
Rew
2014 Oct 8, 3:22pm
It's reported by WHO as a variant, but since I'm not a scientist, I don't know how much it "varies" from the previous strains.
It's pretty darn close from what I can see. 1990s flavor, uptake into zoo, and then down to Humans now. They will narrow it even closer I'm sure. I'm sure this thing is in hundreds of labs right now.
http://epidemic.bio.ed.ac.uk/ebolavirus_phylogeny
Lethal, yes a 50%+ CFR.... Fast??, it's incubation is longer that some other viruses... Fast only comes in after symptoms show and how quick you die.
Currently believed you have very low viral count and are not infectious while asymptomatic. Take AIDS instead, a really slow killer, but related. You sit undetected, spread like crazy, and then knock people over after a long time. That's actually a positive for why it is less likely to spread. Also it has really noticeable symptoms! Ebola starts popping up everywhere, you feel like you have soar throat and flu, you quarantine yourself. It's not stealthy.
You're claiming First World healthcare and facilities here, but the Dallas case shows we aren't any better.
Because we couldn't cure an incurable disease picked up in a foreign country? Of course we can catch it ... but again, so far, no transmission. Let's see how well we do.
I'm NOT optimistic that our medical professionals and facilities can handle multiple cases. That's based on first hand experience working in the healthcare field.
I'll repeat what I've already said: I'm NOT concerned about the actual Ebola virus at all.
I'm more concerned on the countries inability to handle multiple cases and the government's knee-jerk reactions to the fear and response to the outcry of the general public.
And you think regurgitating the MSM is helpful to that cause?
The latest report from her was that she thinks she touched her glove to her face.
That's right. And look at what it was yesterday.
What do you think the car wash guy's reason is going to be tomorrow? It could be spray back, but odds are far better for contact.
And yes, beat a dead horse example above.
So just stop it CiC. Do your part.
Vicente
2014 Oct 9, 1:46am
I with Patrick.net had the ability for a moderator, to close a thread. This one has become unwieldy and useless.
indigenous
2014 Oct 9, 1:49am
I with Patrick.net had the ability for a moderator, to close a thread. This one has become unwieldy and useless.
Translation:
I have been thoroughly beaten in this debate
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While you dorks worry about Federal Reserve or the price of milk....
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/20/ebola-west-africa_n_5515140.html