patrick.net

Q: Is it possible to get Ebola from just being close to anybody, like on a plane, breathing the same air?
A: No. Unequivocally not. You must be a healthcare worker properly dressed in at least STAGE/LEVEL 4 bio-warfare clothing to get infected.
Q: And it has no genetic markers this time around?
A: Correct. That's why all the black people are dying and we'll soon find out how it works on Middle Eastern folks at the hajj. Plus if you were born in Hawaii, you're immune.
Q: Then I really don't have to worry?
A: No, you can take a sex-cation to western Africa and have all the unprotected sex, spit swapping and finger lickin' good foreplay you want.

Gee thanks, Mr Wizard.
Anytime, Billy.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-06/doctor-who-discovered-ebola-1976-fears-unimaginable-tragedy

Call it Crazy says

Levy said that his son is “not certain” when he got the disease, but believes that he could have gotten infected by some of the spray back that came when he was using chlorine to disinfect a car.

So your case is, he isn't certain, but he thinks he got it by "spray back". Just like the Spanish nurse's aid is "not certain", so the suit must have failed.

Ebola can travel by air on droplets of fluid but it is not considered an "airborne" virus. It doesn't dry out and drift on the wind at long distances. That may be splitting hairs, but the CDC, and even USAMRIID, don't outright classify it as airborne. It can have airborne transmissions in some instances, but they are far more rare than physical contact with "hot" virus.

Do research on this ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayinga_N'Seka

(Edit: Since you love the CDC as a source here:
http://whqlibdoc.who.int/bulletin/1978/Vol56-No2/bulletin_1978_56(2)_271-293.pdf
Page 227. The nurse traveling around, that's Mayinga.)

You will find that this is the Ebola Zaire strain we know of right now and that Mayinga spent two days traveling around in a high density area, while symptomatic, even going to an emergency clinic, before she finally accepted she had contracted Ebola and checked herself into quarantine.

Guess how many people she was around, contracted Ebola Zaire, by transmission from her thereafter?

Zero.

That's not the characteristics of an airborne virus, especially one that is as contagious in small viral loads as Ebola is.

Again, to the photos, show me where someone credible is saying that vomit was present and that was a cleanup effort? Even if that was a cleanup effort, risk is going to be on the lower side to pick it up, but I don't disagree that that would be a stupid way to clean up Ebola. Good thing no vomit was present, right? (Photos of someone cleaning the sidewalk, and a bunch of panicked internet articles, do not make facts.)

Call it Crazy says

The American journalist with Ebola who arrived at a Nebraska hospital today believes that he may have gotten infected when he got splashed while spray-washing a vehicle where someone had died from the disease.

Proof enough for me! We're all gonna die, and car wash guys will die first!

Call it Crazy says

You, I, nor anybody else can definitely say at this point until further research is completed. So for you to take that stand that it positively cannot be passed by airborne is pretty idiotic...

Negative. Not classified as airborne. Period. End. Done. It is not an airborne virus, though it can have airborne transmissions. I've never said it couldn't transmit through the air, I've said you power washing picture is crap and that the virus is not an airborne virus.

How does cleaning a car that had a victim of ebola in it have anything to do with a guy washing down a sidewalk?

Yes, important viruses are constantly studied for change, and the Ebola virus as we know it right now, is not and never has been classified as an "airborne" disease. That's not to say it cannot transmit that way, and people at risk of exposure don't protect themselves from that method of transmission, that is to say it is not a common or particularly effective method of transmission.

I think you will find aerosol and airborne are used almost interchangeably with regards to viruses propensity to transmit through the air.

My point is the classification is absolutely NOT airborne. That doesn't mean it doesn't spread that way, that means it is much harder/lower risk of transmission that way.

Take that versus Lassa or Hanta or any other typical airborne disease. We know Ebola. It's one of the scariest viruses on the planet and it is not an aggressive airborne transmitter.

The R0 rate for Ebola, it's replication and infections measure is right below Aids.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

Mostly because it hits so hard and fast it cannot hop around too much. It flares up, burns bright, and then typically goes back to the dark heart of Africa, in the caves and jungles it comes from.

All evidence we have, and all historical knowledge we have on this virus, says it will do the same here.

- Your power washing picture is garbage
- It's not airborne

Rew says

The R0 rate for Ebola, it's replication and infections measure is right below Aids.

This is for viruses studied from previous outbreaks. This one's R0 rate is not known, esp. since it may have mutated for a while now. Most of the data cited is pretty old by now. The simple fact that this one has spread so fast to so many (without changed habits) is a sure bet that the R0 rate this time is at least somewhat higher.

mell says

(without changed habits)

It's never before effected West Africans with a distrust of their government and burial rights involving touching the dead.

Edit: and it's a highly genetically similar strain of Ebola Zaire. WHO says so currently. Scientific America has a great article on why the fears over this going airborne (being more infectious) are more science fiction than science fact.

I don't argue that, honestly Ebola Zaire is one of the scariest "bugs" on the planet. My bone to pick here is people spreading internet garbage and playing into the panic our media will drum up. CiC claims he is on the same side, but I think he is not a genetically similar strain to me. ;)

Call it Crazy says

Yep, I'll do research

Look out, everyone: He's doin' research!

Bgamall, is that you?

Please share your controlled studies with us. Where will the contagion go next?

Call it Crazy says

Per WHO, this current outbreak is a variant of the ZAIRE strain...

Helping you with your emphasis. The reason being that means we already know a lot about the characteristics of this virus. It's not an unknown or new filovirus agent.

CiC claims : paraphrasing but says words to the effect of ... "some people like to bring politics into it" ... yet first replies here are all Obama-bash crap.

CiC claims he is just regurgitating what is reported on MSM, yet posts rumor mill BS power washing photos.

CiC says he thinks panic will be a worse result than any possible outbreak here (I agree), but originally has a "just you wait and see how fast this spreads" attitude. Continually now posts from a "it spreads faster and is worse" stance because this outbreak is more widespread than any before it.

Evidence is strongly suggesting that it is not because it is a "new strain" or having some new characteristics, but because it is the first time it has hit a large population, which likes to touch their dead, was slow to get awareness growing of what was happening, and has poor infrastructure and medical capacity with dense population centers.

Based on historical experience this should behave like the Zaire strands always have. Flare up, burn fast and bright, and are contained or burn themselves out as they go through all available hosts. Additionally, it will not take a strong hold in the US, Europe, or elsewhere for all the reasons that the societies, flow of information, infrastructure, and medical capabilities are different.

CiC, you can take the counter, but for Human kinds sake, you better be hoping I'm right. ;)

Call it Crazy says

1) Do you dispute the WHO chart I just posted?

Nope.

Call it Crazy says

2) Is it growing or slowing down in Western Africa?

Reported cases will be growing, but transmission rate is hard to measure. Unknown.

Call it Crazy says

3) Has it spread to any other countries besides the Western African ones?

Yes, but very limited and isolated.

Call it Crazy says

4) Is this outbreak larger or smaller than any other in the last decades?

Larger.

My turn:
1) Of all previous outbreaks has Ebola been contained?
2) Is this a new or known strain of Ebola with a close genetic history with well understood pathology and transmission?
3) Could the man cleaning the car just as easily have contracted Ebola by skin contact, poor suit removal, or any other typical touch contact?
4) Isn't it because West Africa has so many other fever like diseases, including Lassa, poor awareness of Ebola, mistrust of government, and burial practices involving touching dead bodies, the main contributing factors to why the Ebola outbreak is so bad in West Africa?
5) Is the strain airborne or known to be more infectious than any other previous strain of Ebola Zaire?
6) Why do you feel the need to post the half baked articles, and then when challenged, run to the WHO to argue over semantics?

Call it Crazy says

Do the reports from the MSM scare you when they report updated or changing information?

I'm STILL waiting on your response on this:

So far the media coverage is actually pretty positive in the direction of containment. So far, of all the travel and transmission cases, we have very little secondary outbreaks in the US and Europe ... so far (we need to see in a month). Of all the people Duncan came into contact only 9 were at high risk. That's pretty darn good, and we took quick action to quarantine. Additionally, right now, that travel and exposure case so mimics Mayinga and her bout with Ebola. No additional transmissions, lots of roaming in population centers, and visits to health facilities, with no additional transmissions.

Call it Crazy says

What about the Journalist who claimed he caught it from spray washing the car. Was he lying?

Lying no but he doesn't know his actual path of transmission. The same for the nurses aid in Spain and all the internet rabble about "the suit failure". This is also a side show defense for your concrete power washing photo post. It has no relation to how factual that was.

Call it Crazy says

There is no "historical experience" with this sized outbreak. Can you say "Normalcy Bias" if you think it will go the same way in these urban cities.

It goes the same way, on a bigger scale. More deaths, but eventually contained. One of the reasons Ebola's R0 is so low, is because of how lethal and fast it moves. I'm no virologist, but I believe it. If the virus was contagious when people were asymptomatic, or it was airborne, different story, but we know "this bug".

Call it Crazy says

Yep, they're different.... Should we review the Dallas case?

If you call 1 person, who picked up the virus from Liberia, and then traveled to die in the US the same as almost 4000 dead in West Africa ... you need a head check.

Call it Crazy says

I've never taken the counter, that's only been in your delusional brain. This is what my stance has been all along:

Good. We agree on that one thing. :) Panic will be worse. Seem's you may be doing your best to spread it though.

Call it Crazy says

We'll see... Nobody (including the experts) can say with certainty yet with this current outbreak (except for you)...

Certain, no. No one can be. Optimistic and confidant, yes.

You don't share that with me though, and I think your "facts" and posts are pretty well slanted toward the right wing panic and noise machine. Can you prove me wrong?

Rew says

Of all previous outbreaks has Ebola been contained?

A new word to add to the vernacular, endemic. The problem with endemic is that it gets that much more chance to mutate into an aerosol form.

Call it Crazy says

Yes I think this applies well, to threads you take over.

Call it Crazy says

It's reported by WHO as a variant, but since I'm not a scientist, I don't know how much it "varies" from the previous strains.

It's pretty darn close from what I can see. 1990s flavor, uptake into zoo, and then down to Humans now. They will narrow it even closer I'm sure. I'm sure this thing is in hundreds of labs right now.
http://epidemic.bio.ed.ac.uk/ebolavirus_phylogeny

Call it Crazy says

Lethal, yes a 50%+ CFR.... Fast??, it's incubation is longer that some other viruses... Fast only comes in after symptoms show and how quick you die.

Currently believed you have very low viral count and are not infectious while asymptomatic. Take AIDS instead, a really slow killer, but related. You sit undetected, spread like crazy, and then knock people over after a long time. That's actually a positive for why it is less likely to spread. Also it has really noticeable symptoms! Ebola starts popping up everywhere, you feel like you have soar throat and flu, you quarantine yourself. It's not stealthy.

Call it Crazy says

You're claiming First World healthcare and facilities here, but the Dallas case shows we aren't any better.

Because we couldn't cure an incurable disease picked up in a foreign country? Of course we can catch it ... but again, so far, no transmission. Let's see how well we do.

Call it Crazy says

I'm NOT optimistic that our medical professionals and facilities can handle multiple cases. That's based on first hand experience working in the healthcare field.

I'll repeat what I've already said: I'm NOT concerned about the actual Ebola virus at all.

I'm more concerned on the countries inability to handle multiple cases and the government's knee-jerk reactions to the fear and response to the outcry of the general public.

And you think regurgitating the MSM is helpful to that cause?

Call it Crazy says

The latest report from her was that she thinks she touched her glove to her face.

That's right. And look at what it was yesterday.

What do you think the car wash guy's reason is going to be tomorrow? It could be spray back, but odds are far better for contact.

And yes, beat a dead horse example above.

So just stop it CiC. Do your part.

BenghazebolaHusseinCabronObama says

Bgamall, is that you?

Best laugh I've had in a long time.

I with Patrick.net had the ability for a moderator, to close a thread. This one has become unwieldy and useless.

Vicente says

I with Patrick.net had the ability for a moderator, to close a thread. This one has become unwieldy and useless.

Translation:

I have been thoroughly beaten in this debate

"While you dorks worry about Federal Reserve or the price of milk...."

I think you've got that backwards!

Ironman says

Only in America, send a clean-up crew in to mop up high contagious Ebola vomit, give them a power washer so they can blow it all over the place. Oh, and don't give them any personal protection equipment....

But, some people here feel that the authorities have everything under control and there is no chance of it spreading...

Sure.....

*

Happy 2 year anniversary to the ebola powerwash hysteria, brought to us by our resident dipshit, CIC!!!

This ancient dweller in the blood never ceases to amaze.

Those reports of plagues being released by the perma frost melting in Siberia have been fascinating too. For our sake, I hope humans don't come into any more contact with super primitive diseases. As we tread over parts of the Earth we haven't been, or as parts of the Earth become re-exposed to potential human contact, things tend to not go very well for us in the infectious diseases department.

I'm sure the Trump administration will "win" if there was a flare up too. (gulp) They would be very willing to look at what Obama did, a massive success for the West African ebola response, and learn from that right? I mean, they wouldn't use a crisis of that type to stoke xenophobic fear and nationalism right?