patrick.net

You shouldn't be buying individual or even sector stocks, unless it's for entertainment value.

Carefully consider the definition of the term "fool's errand".

Why not play craps at your local casino?

I totally understand the concept, buy low/sell high which is a skilled trade. lol

Oil will turn around however true credit fundamentals are not on it's side and it will take considerable time to work it's way out. Fundamentals don't support a buy nor does price itself.

bgamall4 says

I know, but if we can buy stuff near it's bottom at some future point in time (probably next year?) that is what I am potentially looking to do.

That part wasn't from me and it's all about price and timing.

Examples:
5 9:15am Thu 3 Jul 2014 Share Quote Permalink Like (1) Dislike Edit Delete

For what ever it's worth in short form
I'm more of an odds player and my numbers say gold has not yet seen its low along with the interest rates heading lower... The $$$ has high probability of getting stronger then most will be prepared for once the S&P actually goes into a real retest mode ($2070). If the facts (price) in that process hold true to my #s and concept the mining companies will follow gold less than $1000 along with silver @ 13-14…. Money flow from the equities will go straight into $$$ cash…. Once that process is over Gold and Silver and mining companies will be ripe to buy…

9 10:22pm Sun 6 Jul 2014 Share Quote Permalink Like (1) Dislike Edit Delete

Facebooksux says

WHat do you guys think of GDJX?

If you pull the charts (5yr+)up on GDJX and consider the volume sense the beginning of the year the volume has risen considerably yet price has stayed tight for the most part with no real momentum. There is short and long term resistance just above the last high and due to the environment of the equities market I give GDJX a low probability of breaking to the upside 33% +/- the same odds I put on gold itself.

I would need considerable confirmation of price heading higher before I would risk locking my capitol up. I don't see anything technically or fundamentally that would give the momentum to break above in this environment although it certainly could happen.

In that case I would be seriously looking for a reason to close at 50+/-, if upside is on the plate it needs to do it soon or the odds of that happening becomes less and less. The dollars to accomplish that momentum are still in the equities and locked up in the RE investment market and it will take many of those dollars to get the job done. Not to mention of coarse those equities/RE investments "will be going" dollars prior to becoming gold investments.

I do believe gold is at tangent in general and we will know if I'm right or wrong very soon.

My best advice is build skill in acceptance when your wrong. This is a traders market if you don't have that skill then the best odds you have are very very marginal to make any money much less any serious money.

Graybox says

That part wasn't from me and it's all about price and timing.

Of coarse it takes some sort of confirmation of price to base a move. Calculating relative information, planning and exaction in and out, what ever price gives you.

Didn't Kurzweil predict that solar will cover our energy needs in 15yrs?

At least we are coming out of a period where it was seen as THE bottleneck commodity of the 21st century.

Oil could become definitively much lower.

Draw the lines in the sand for the future. However, the question. was.

zzyzzx says

Oil related stocks seem to be on sale at the moment, and I am wondering what you think of some of the oil stocks.

We are speaking about now not 15yrs. from now. The answers are in the relevant questions.

Graybox says

We are speaking about now not 15yrs. from now. The answers are in the relevant questions.

There is plenty of oil now which is why prices are going down.
The question is: are oil stocks going back up?

When the 2017 depression starts in earnest, will oil go back up?

When electric cars start multiplying on the road and panels on houses, what will be the outlook then?

The answer for now is "no".
Can money be made in oil now "yes".

You contribute nothing to the question in "real value" terms.
The questions and statements you make are no more than to fill your need to post something to the board.

So please quantify with benefit what you are trying to say. How is your comments beneficial to zzyzzx question?

zzyzzx says

Oil related stocks seem to be on sale at the moment, and I am wondering what you think of some of the oil stocks.

The bigger question for me has always how an oil company performs in the face of peak oil. You get higher prices, but reserves are harder to come by.

EBGuy says

The bigger question for me has always how an oil company performs in the face of peak oil. You get higher prices, but reserves are harder to come by.

I would assume that oil companies would at that point also be investing in synthetic alternatives.

OPEC has answered that question.

indigenous says

OPEC has answered that question.

So clarify what your point is. How is that 1 sentence a value.

Personally I'm slowly accumulating a position in COP. They have a good dividend and have some of the lowest shale costs of production in the industry. Which makes them well prepared to make money in a low oil price environment. I plan on holding long term

Graybox says

So clarify what your point is. How is that 1 sentence a value.

They did not slow down production, i.e. they are betting that the price will revert to the mean.

What is the mean value of oil?

100 per barrel or so

Trindigenous says

100 per barrel or so

Try $59.57

You mean the current price

True definition of mean pricing. I'm sure there are more significant logical price points below or above 59.57 I could find if I wanted to put some real effort.

Don't know what you are talking about, OPEC is betting the price will go back up to around 100

http://www.hark.com/clips/tkmgmsqppw-dragnet87

65.02 is also a "mean" price. Those 2 price currently are more powerful then OPEC and their bets and wishes.

Price is in the process of testing mean starting yesterday when it hit 63.72.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$WTIC

Graybox says

65.02 is also a "mean" price. Those 2 price currently are more powerful then OPEC and their bets and wishes.

Ceptin that oil is sort of like gold in that it will sooner or later (probably sooner) revert to the mean of the past.

Are you an options trader?

indigenous says

eptin that oil is sort of like gold in that it will sooner or later (probably sooner) revert to the mean of the past.

Your absolutely correct.

The mean for gold is 1150 so you are absolutely correct just a little late for the party. lol

Actually 1150-60 is the current "mean" on the table being tested.

Longer term is in the 825 area.

I have no idea what you are talking about, if you are trying to be esoteric, congratulations...

indigenous says

Are you an options trader?

No, I'm not. I'm a trader mostly on the spot market due to the liquidity factor (volatility).

Mean

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FMean&ei=9zV-VPKPHZe0oQSm9oLoCA&usg=AFQjCNFyEepczXwDfWqRqAgyowRNzlS52g&sig2=2UiXCRcd7HMOaTfec_Msnw&bvm=bv.80642063,d.cGU

drudometkin says

Personally I'm slowly accumulating a position in COP. They have a good dividend and have some of the lowest shale costs of production in the industry. Which makes them well prepared to make money in a low oil price environment. I plan on holding long term

Just bought 100 shares.

Oil is possibly bottoming out for some short-intermediate trades.
I would have a plan for risk management, exaction in and out and wait for a confirmation of price before execution. My target would be in the 90 range to take profit.

Participate at your own risk, only you are responsible for your trades.

Mean Reversion
DEFINITION OF 'MEAN REVERSION'
A theory suggesting that prices and returns eventually move back towards the mean or average. This mean or average can be the historical average of the price or return or another relevant average such as the growth in the economy or the average return of an industry.

zzyzzx says

Oil related stocks seem to be on sale at the moment, and I am wondering what you think of some of the oil stocks.

Oil stocks are way too easy to get burned on. I have invested quite nicely in oil exploration stocks in the past. If oil really crashes and exploration comes to a halt these stocks crash big time. The oilfield companies lag the oil price and bottom out after oil prices start back up. It's much easier to see a clear trend and the investments involved means the trend moves pretty slowly. There are a number of funds that do oil exploration stocks. Go back and look at these funds in the 90's to see the price of oil vs the price of exploration funds.

What in that post bugged you bgamall4?

You did see that was 6mo. ago? right
9:15am Thu 3 Jul 2014

No I don't know anybody...lol I row my own canoe across the pond. I trade price... Yes I do try and identify and follow money flow. Do you know of a better way please tell me.

I count the cards, play the odds and draw my lines in the sand, plan and then execute the plan. The plan includes approx. 20% being wrong which I don't have to worry about cause its already a part of the plan and keeps me in the for game for the long term.

I listen to the fundamentals as background music and there is no question it's all manipulated.

Friendly reminder:
I am expecting a ton of tax loss selling in oil stocks as we get closer to the end of the year!

BP already below $35/sh!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-plunges-five-half-low-003929338.html
U.S. crude (CLc1) was down 0.3 percent in early Asian trade at $55.73 a barrel, after touching a fresh May 2009 low of $55.02 on Monday.