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Failure of Keynesnian Policys to Keep Jobs, Create Sensible Loan Policies


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2015 Apr 29, 2:54pm   39,596 views  94 comments

by Entitlemented   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2172549

Yes, it did. We use exogenous variation in banks incentives to conform to the standards of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) around regulatory exam dates to trace out the effect of the CRA on lending activity. Our empirical strategy compares lending behavior of banks undergoing CRA exams within a given census tract in a given month to the behavior of banks operating in the same census tract-month that do not face these exams. We find that adherence to the act led to riskier lending by banks: in the six quarters surrounding the CRA exams lending is elevated on average by...

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25   Bellingham Bill   2015 Apr 30, 9:58pm  

tatupu70 says

Bailout or no bailout, why would bank owners choose to lose lots of money?

Three words . . . O P M

26   Bellingham Bill   2015 Apr 30, 10:00pm  

bob2356 says

CRA didn't affect the housing bubble

conservatives and trolls roll CRA out like a second soccer ball at a kids' game

it is inconceivable to them that the private business could elect to engage in outright fraud in the trillions, when unregulated.

well, they probably understand this perfectly but can't admit it because ideology.

27   bob2356   2015 May 1, 4:11am  

Bellingham Bill says

tatupu70 says

Bailout or no bailout, why would bank owners choose to lose lots of money?

Three words . . . O P M

Bank owners didn't choose anything. Banks are corporations. Bank executives chose to take high levels of risk in order to get high levels of compensation without understanding what the true risks were.

28   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 4:29am  

bob2356 says

Bank owners didn't choose anything. Banks are corporations. Bank executives chose to take high levels of risk in order to get high levels of compensation without understanding what the true risks were.

I agree and that's a big part of the problem. When the owners don't have power over the executives, stuff like this happens.

29   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 4:30am  

Entitlemented says

Looks like these REPCONTEAS did warn that loans and banks could get into trouble. Austrians saw the cause and effect in 1995-1997, DEMLOBBYLAWYERMBAS cant see it even now.

As the CRA had nothing to do with the housing bubble and bust, I'll add that warning as another example of Rep/Con/Teas getting it wrong on the economy. It's a long list.

30   bob2356   2015 May 1, 6:01am  

tatupu70 says

I agree and that's a big part of the problem. When the owners don't have power over the executives, stuff like this happens.

What are you talking about? Corporations don't work that way. How could they? Are all the stockholders going to get together to vote on business decisions? That's what the directors are for, to provide guidance and make sure that risks are reasonable. Unfortunately boards have become a tangle of interlocking ceo's patting each other on the back.

Funny that this "stuff" didn't happen from WWII until the reagan era, a period of strong corporate regulation and very progressive personal/corporate taxes. American corporations had unbelievable growth with manufacturing reaching it's peak in american history.

31   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 6:23am  

bob2356 says

What are you talking about? Corporations don't work that way. How could they? Are all the stockholders going to get together to vote on business decisions? That's what the directors are for, to provide guidance and make sure that risks are reasonable. Unfortunately boards have become a tangle of interlocking ceo's patting each other on the back.

I'm talking about exactly what you said. Directors are supposed to represent owners' interest and make sure executives are making decisions that are in the best interest of the corporation (and its owners). They no longer serve this function.

bob2356 says

Funny that this "stuff" didn't happen from WWII until the reagan era, a period of strong corporate regulation and very progressive personal/corporate taxes. American corporations had unbelievable growth with manufacturing reaching it's peak in american history.

Agreed.

32   indigenous   2015 May 1, 6:26am  

bob2356 says

Funny that this "stuff" didn't happen from WWII until the reagan era, a period of strong corporate regulation and very progressive personal/corporate taxes.

Banks became centralized in the 80s with deregulation. The framers wanted banks to be decentralized because of their fear of banks getting too much power. But this made bank too prone to one market place as all of their loans would be dependant on one area. Centralizing the banks made them more stable.

Until that is that the Fed had to approve M & As. To achieve this the banks had to prove the were "good citizens", this was accomplished by social organizations vouching for their "character", in return the banks would donate lots of money to these organizations, IIRC around 2 something trillion dollars to them over the past few decades.

The perversion of the (under Clinton, AKA Captain Corruption) CRA was an offshoot of this process and helped to create this sort of thinking. Along with backstopping bad loans was persuasive in this mentality.

33   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 6:41am  

indigenous says

Until that is that the Fed had to approve M & As. To achieve this the banks had to prove the were "good citizens", this was accomplished by social organizations vouching for their "character", in return the banks would donate lots of money to these organizations, IIRC around 2 something trillion dollars to them over the past few decades.

The perversion of the (under Clinton, AKA Captain Corruption) CRA was an offshoot of this process and helped to create this sort of thinking. Along with backstopping bad loans was persuasive in this mentality.

I have to give you credit for tenacity. You won't give up on the CRA no matter what data and proof is shown that it had no bearing on the financial crisis, huh?

Although I will give you credit for creativity. Your theory is that charitable donations led to financial crisis? That's a new one.

34   indigenous   2015 May 1, 6:43am  

tatupu70 says

You won't give up on the CRA no matter what data and proof is shown

That is a two way street.

35   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 6:46am  

indigenous says

That is a two way street.

OK great--I'm ready to see all of your data showing exactly how the very small % of loans made in CRA areas caused banks to make bad loans everywhere else.

36   indigenous   2015 May 1, 6:48am  

tatupu70 says

OK great--I'm ready to see all of your data showing exactly how the very small % of loans made in CRA areas caused banks to make bad loans everywhere else.

Buy the book "Fragile by Design", and you will see all of the data.

37   Blurtman   2015 May 1, 6:56am  

tatupu70 says

To be clear--bailout = loan that must be repaid with interest. Is that a reward?

You are insolvent. Your credit rating is in the toilet. You are allowed to borrow at ridiculously low interest rates, essentially given a money machine. The head of your cartel keystrokes money into your account. The head of your cartel buys your toxic assets at face value. Neither you nor any of your cronies face criminal charges for massive fraud which brings down the economy.

Yes, that is how it works for every business.

38   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 7:51am  

indigenous says

Buy the book "Fragile by Design", and you will see all of the data.

If you have the book, why not just detail the relevant passages?

39   indigenous   2015 May 1, 7:54am  

tatupu70 says

If you have the book, why not just detail the relevant passages?

I don't have it, I want you to buy it and read it and explain it to me. Besides you ask endless questions that are a nuisance.

40   bob2356   2015 May 1, 8:00am  

indigenous says

Buy the book "Fragile by Design", and you will see all of the data.

Oh yes, fragile by design. I looked at that once in a bookstore, a brief peruse told me it was just crap. Here's what one of the really nice reviewers said about it, many other reviews were considerably less kind.


Fragile By Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit is a tour de force, and not in a good way. The book’s history of U.S. banking is troubling. The narrative covering the period from the Civil War until the 1990s is highly selective and misleading. Worse, the section that covers U.S. banking over the past 25 years is a set of distortions and falsehoods that should be obvious to anyone with a basic knowledge of the recent financial crisis.

Yet you think it's up there with the holy grail. Amazing. Are you so brainwashed that objective thinking isn't possible at all or do you simply lack any basic knowledge? Maybe, just maybe everyone else isn't wrong.

41   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 8:07am  

Blurtman says

You are insolvent. Your credit rating is in the toilet. You are allowed to borrow at ridiculously low interest rates, essentially given a money machine. The head of your cartel keystrokes money into your account. The head of your cartel buys your toxic assets at face value. Neither you nor any of your cronies face criminal charges for massive fraud which brings down the economy.

OK let's analyze these point by point. First--the bailout did allow companies to borrow money at below market rates. This money was used to make them solvent and fund operations. Not sure how this was a money machine, however, unless you are saying their normal operations created lots of profit.

If you are saying that banks borrowed from the Fed overnight window to make money on the spread, I've seen no evidence this happened. In fact, the data I've seen showed very little domestic activity at the Fed window. If you have other data, please share.

I'm not a big fan of the toxic asset purchases. And I would like nothing more than for bank execs to face criminal charges, but I fear the burden of proof would be tough and we'd be spending more money on the prosecutions that lead to nothing.

42   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 8:08am  

indigenous says

I don't have it, I want you to buy it and read it and explain it to me. Besides you ask endless questions that are a nuisance.

Yes, I know. Asking you to support your assertions is a nuisance, isn't it?

43   mell   2015 May 1, 8:23am  

tatupu70 says

OK let's analyze these point by point.

There's nothing to analyze, if you're insolvent, you go through BK procedures and reorganize or dissolve. If you commit fraud, you go to jail (proof will be established during the prosecution and trial phase). What happened here was the abolition of the rule of law. Repeatedly.

44   indigenous   2015 May 1, 8:23am  

bob2356 says

Yet you think it's up there with the holy grail. Amazing. Are you so brainwashed that objective thinking isn't possible at all or do you simply lack any basic knowledge? Maybe, just maybe everyone else isn't wrong.

I use you as a touchstone, if you believe it is bad that is a sure fire sign that it is good.

Gee you see a bad review in glib general overtones and you decide it is garbage. IOW you found something that agrees with your religious views.

BTW I have yet to see you make an origination about anything just more of the same carping with little to "enlighten" anyone.

I will say however that that comment the other day about Rockefeller having a crony advantage by taxation was indeed enlightening.

45   Entitlemented   2015 May 1, 8:40am  

This CRA was not "Capitolism" nor were the mimicks that followed. The banks were forced to make innovative and creative loans, at the risk of Bill Clinton and his minions stipping the bank of their FDIC status.

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-1998-12-01/pdf/98-31152.pdf

This shows unequivically that unless these local banks would knuckle down to CRA ponzi rules, the banks would be closed. This is effectively political extortion, and is 180 degrees away from any measure of capitolistic behavior.

46   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 8:46am  

Entitlemented says

This CRA was not "Capitolism" nor were the mimicks that followed. The banks were forced to make innovative and creative loans, at the risk of Bill Clinton and his minions stipping the bank of their FDIC status.

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-1998-12-01/pdf/98-31152.pdf

This shows unequivically that unless these local banks would knuckle down to CRA ponzi rules, the banks would be closed. This is effectively political extortion, and is 180 degrees away from any measure of capitolistic behavior.

Even if what you say is true (which it isn't), it doesn't matter. The CRA didn't CAUSE anything. You're arguing that banks were forced to make slightly riskier loans to borrowers in specific areas. So what?? Those loans has absolutely NOTHING to do with the bubble and bust.

47   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 8:49am  

mell says

There's nothing to analyze, if you're insolvent, you go through BK procedures and reorganize or dissolve. If you commit fraud, you go to jail (proof will be established during the prosecution and trial phase). What happened here was the abolition of the rule of law. Repeatedly.

You're very dramatic. Yes, if you commit fraud, you should go to jail. But, if you MAY have committed fraud, it's up to the prosecutor to determine whether or not to prosecute. That is the rule of law. Just because you think someone committed fraud, doesn't mean the AG has enough evidence to prove it in a court of law.

48   Entitlemented   2015 May 1, 8:50am  

Further more, it is clear that after seeking opinions of banks, that the Fed Register document was written by lobbyists and lawyers who sought to end run good faith and softly deny the claims that the banks said the law would have, for example:

"The commenters do not feel that banks
should now be subject to requirements the FDIC did not originally impose.Moreover, the commenters point outt hat the FDIC and state banking authorities routinely review investment portfolios as part of the supervisory process and can address any deficiencies on a case-by-case basis."

How can any due diligence be surmized when broad sweeping statements on FDICs, investment portfolios of MBS, deficiency checking on case by case basis.

We now know that the opposite happened, - all of the due diligence was reduced.

49   Entitlemented   2015 May 1, 9:16am  

In fact those who overturned the banks inputs broke the law in multiple ways. An act to create more credit to people who had issues maintaining good credit surely must violate dozens of established laws and standards. A sweeping credit law change of this magnitude should have been voted on or had a minimum of due diligence. Slick Willie knew it could not pass through legitimate means, because this law is not sound.

Now many of the poorer people already shambled by Clintons NAFTA and the Giant job losses, have their credit ruined.

I wonder how many of the poor lost their homes, and what the total value of the losses were, and whether this CRA actually locked these lower income citizens into poverty for perpetuity? How many will ever have a home now?

Bill Clinton and his cronies should stand trial for this sham - but wait, all his cronies have been paid, and his Lawyer associated runs the US - they ran out Jobs with NAFTA and are now doing another Pan Pacific NAFTA mimic which will most likely amplify the effects.

50   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 9:20am  

Entitlemented says

In fact those who overturned the banks inputs broke the law in multiple ways. An act to create more credit to people who had issues maintaining good credit surely must violate dozens of established laws and standards. A sweeping credit law change of this magnitude should have been voted on or had a minimum of due diligence. Slick Willie knew it could not pass through legitimate means, because this law is not sound

Wow--you have no clue how the world works. This was not a sweeping credit law change. It was a very small, very minor Act that had almost no measurable effect on anything.

Entitlemented says

I wonder how many of the poor lost their homes, and what the total value of the losses were, and whether this CRA actually locked these lower income citizens into poverty for perpetuity? How many will ever have a home now?

I wonder how many poor were able to buy homes that they wouldn't have been able to in the past and were able to build equity and enjoy the benefits of home ownership.

51   Blurtman   2015 May 1, 10:43am  

tatupu70 says

I've seen no evidence this happened.

tatupu70 says

Not sure how this was a money machine

C'mon now. Money be fungible. My cocaine buying account is empty and I need to keep $100k in the Save the Choodren account. But you have given me $100k to save the choodren. You know what that means.

52   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 10:50am  

Blurtman says

C'mon now. Money be fungible. My cocaine buying account is empty and I need to keep $100k in the Save the Choodren account. But you have given me $100k to save the choodren. You know what that means.

Again--what are you implying? The banks didn't take any money from the Fed window so there was nothing to move around.

53   MisdemeanorRebel   2015 May 1, 12:09pm  

Arguing that CRA lead to the financial crisis has now become a "Crank Red Flag"

54   MisdemeanorRebel   2015 May 1, 12:20pm  

The financial crisis was caused by all of Real Merikin's money going to loans for the Nigres and the Spics!!!!!

(From the AEI website, unsurprisingly: http://www.aei.org/publication/moving-the-market-forward-principles-for-returning-fha-to-its-traditional-mission/ )

55   bob2356   2015 May 1, 1:44pm  

indigenous says

Gee you see a bad review in glib general overtones and you decide it is garbage. IOW you found something that agrees with your religious views.

No, the name of the book rang a bell. I'm pretty sure it was the one I looked at and said this is bullshit. Since you are holding it up as the holy grail I looked up reviews to see what other people thought. They all thought it sucked also. I didn't see one positive review. I guess a lot of other people attend my church. Here I'll save the the next comment, pretty much everyone other than you and entilted are mutts who don't know what you meme.

56   bob2356   2015 May 1, 1:44pm  

tatupu70 says

But, if you MAY have committed fraud, it's up to the prosecutor to determine whether or not to prosecute. That is the rule of law. Just because you think someone committed fraud, doesn't mean the AG has enough evidence to prove it in a court of law.

Especially when they don't look for any.

57   bob2356   2015 May 1, 1:48pm  

thunderlips11 says

Inconvenient facts like this don't matter. It's what people thought based on what people didn't say based on the assumptions made based on the atmosphere of the implication that is the irrefutable evidence.

58   indigenous   2015 May 1, 4:42pm  

bob2356 says

I guess a lot of other people attend my church.

IOW it was reviewed on Mother Jones or NBC or similiar.

59   MisdemeanorRebel   2015 May 1, 5:20pm  

Soooooo, indigenous, what is your explanation for the declining share of CRA loans made over the dozenish years prior to the peak Bubble era?

60   indigenous   2015 May 1, 5:24pm  

thunderlips11 says

Soooooo, indigenous, what is your explanation for the declining share of CRA loans made over the dozenish years prior to the peak Bubble era?

You are assuming that what I'm talking about and actual CRA loans made correlate.

61   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 5:38pm  

indigenous says

You are assuming that what I'm talking about and actual CRA loans made correlate.

I get it. It makes total sense. What happened is:

The government FORCED banks to make loans that they didn't want to make. This caused them to not only make these few loans against their will, but then caused them to make many, many times more loans freely with no government rules at all.

It makes perfect sense. If your boss makes you work Saturday even though you had plans, you will naturally work not only the required Saturday, but will volunteer to work Saturdays for the rest of the year. That's how it works.

62   indigenous   2015 May 1, 5:45pm  

tatupu70 says

I get it.

No you don't. People follow their own interest, which means loan brokers are going to make as many loans as they can. The lower CRA standards were used to lower the standards across the board and with the government backstopping the loans the bubble mentality took off.

63   bob2356   2015 May 1, 6:51pm  

indigenous says

bob2356 says

I guess a lot of other people attend my church.

IOW it was reviewed on Mother Jones or NBC or similiar.

No reviewer would meet your approval that didn't agree with you. All the reviews I read said it was a great book but the chapters on the bubble and crisis were at best not convincing. Even the NY Times which called the book brilliant probably said it best.

If your goal is to understand the origins of the recent financial crisis, “Fragile by Design” is probably not the book to read.

64   indigenous   2015 May 1, 6:54pm  

bob2356 says

Even the NY Times which called the book brilliant probably said it best.

Even the NY Times, as if that were the most conservative publication, funny stuff...

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