patrick.net

and because I knew this was going to be the case....

2010

“The longer term consequences of an unstable residential real estate market may be more serious than just the destruction of individual wealth. The ideal of middle class home ownership may be at stake. The census bureau reported a 7% decline in national rental vacancy rates in 2010, along with an overall decline of 0.7% in home ownership rates compared to a year ago. There were fewer “organic” buyers, more renters and more investment buyers in the market in 2010 and I expect this trend to continue into 2011. Are we at the beginning of a sociological movement away from middle class home ownership and towards a cultural split between the investment property landlords and their renters both of whom may have less personal investment in neighborhood security, local schools and shared public facilities compared to primary homeowners.”

I knew the tight lending myth will be created as has happened... these people Zandi, Goodman, Yun... very predictable if you read their sentence structure... like Yellen as well

Check this out:
The unemployment trend is one helluva predictor of housing.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Strategist says

Check this out:

The unemployment trend is one helluva predictor of housing.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Housing is a process ... it doesn't track 1 to 1 on economic model numbers in a cycle...

Low unemployment
Low Rates

Even in 2015 ... if you take out the excess cash buyers in the system in year 7 of the economic ... you're barley over the Great Recession Lows on demand from main street which are heavy ended on the wealthy Americans as well.

Goodness..

LEI is a good indicator to track

For housing Prime working age is what matters

Forget 16-24
Forget 55- and up

Move the demand age curve to age 29 and up and that group is starting to grow again employment to population

That is the key

Labor Participation rates for Prime working age is over 80% ....

Strategist says

If those upside down end up selling when they get their money back, will they be moving out of the area? If they start renting, you will be competing with them if you sell your home.

If the population is increasing - Buy homes.

If the population is decreasing - Sell homes.

If the population is steady - Compare PITI to rents

here population is decreasing steadily. Not massive, but steady tide out. I myself am thinking of moving out-looking OR/AZ but am talking to a few people in new England too(never been in that area, so it intrigues me, maybe can spend a few years there.) The scenery is great and not much colder than where I am. So which is why I am thinking of selling and taking my tiny profit!!)

Key right here for housing demand

^^^^this. Strat cites millenials buying in the next decade.

There's a reason DTLA is experiencing the only growth in new housing in the Los Angeles area. There's a paradigm shift and it's not towards families and kids.

dodgerfanjohn says

There's a paradigm shift and it's not towards families and kids.

Birth rate climbs for the first time since the recession

Key always is college educated dual income household having kids, more 2020-2024 ....

Hmmm...

What happens when we hit another recession?

dodgerfanjohn says

What happens when we hit another recession?

A recession most likely will happen in the next 2-4 years.. but since we didn't have a real boom the down turn will be much less dramatic

But thinking in bigger terms.. age group 23, 24 25 are the biggest in America, laws of bigger numbers coming in play years 2020-2024... even if college educated graduation rates stay the same, you will just have more supply of young Americans in this group.

We had a good run om demographics from 1996-2007 these few years just wasn't as strong

The X factor going out is how much $$$$ are kids going to spend on their parents housing cost going forward the next 40 years.

That's something that data can't get a grasp on and what I am trying to get a handle on now

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

When unemployment is on a down trend

I hate to tell you, just because the "official" (artificial) published UE rate is down, doesn't mean everyone is working or has quality jobs. And those who are considered to be employed (even when they only work an hour or two a week) aren't going to ramp up home sales...

Cut back on the kool-aid....

It's not kool-aid. It's fine wine.