patrick.net

If I can't live in style with no money amongst the vainglorious richfucks, freedom has no meaning.

Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

Waitup says

I think so too. I bid 600K on a house that was shortselling. My bid was rejected and later found out the house sold for 500K. I think the owner and the agent, both were in on it.

What reason would the owner have to accept $100K less??? That makes no sense.

The owner doesn't accept anything. It's the bank that determines the final sale price on a short sale.

Yup. Which is why you bribe the listing agent/owner. To gain their full cooperation in keeping other buyers willing to pay a lot more at bay.
Ofcourse, you don't call it a bribe.

PockyClipsNow says

WIth prices at these 2015 levels in coastal cali, does it make sense to 'wait out the new current bubble and buy at some future possible bottom'?

The OP just missed the last bottom!

And history will repeat itself and you will be sorry.
Prices are not determined by what anyone thinks they should be. They are determined by what buyers are willing to pay.
I think home prices in coastal California are too cheap.

Call it Crazy says

The owner doesn't accept anything. It's the bank that determines the final sale price on a short sale.

I missed where he said short sale. But, I don't think that's really true anyway--on a short sale the owner still accepts the offer.

You could try throwing a huge saw blade into your landlords car:

On short sale bank approves offers.
Owners and agents job is to collude so that they bank only see the offers from #1- the chosen buyer (who is either a friend or relative AND /OR kicking back $). and #2 - the bank also sees offers that are LOWER in price than the chosen offer.
So when you offer 600k, and the place sold for 500k - the bank never saw your offer.

This situation is whats called making money. In fact, I think its completely legal! RE listing contract (standard car form) says the listing agent must show all offers to the seller (who is not the bank) no one is required to submit all short sales offers to the bank. There may or may not be a 'short sale agreement' where you promise to submit all offers (ha!).

It used to be short sales were rare, done on hardship only, and mostly only when the bank couldnt realisticly forclose and make same or less money by foreclosing than allowing a short sale. And the bank had rules too like 'arms letgh transaction' (cant short sell to mom).

Now you can legally buy YOUR OWN short sale. and banks know about and allow it.

Anyway good luck waiting for another crash - it cannot happen again the same way without MAJOR job losses. Too many ways to hide inventory now, the whole RE market is now an experiment in Gov interventionism, no longer any kind of market forces.

PockyClipsNow says

On short sale bank approves offers.

Yes, but only AFTER the seller has accepted the offer.

"Even after you come to agreement with the seller to buy a short-sale property, the seller’s lender (or lenders, if there is more than one mortgage) has to approve the sale before you can close. When there is only one mortgage, short-sale experts say lender approval typically takes about two months. If there is more than one mortgage with different lenders, it can take four months or longer for the lenders to approve the sale."

http://realtormag.realtor.org/sales-and-marketing/handouts-for-customers/for-buyers/making-offer-short-sale-what-you-need-know

Now, in real life, realtors that do lots of short sales probably short circuit the process and take the seller out of the transaction as they usually only care about getting the sale done. But, the seller does accept the offer before it goes to the bank for their approval.

" I waited for FUCKING YEARS and NOW I AM LOSING EVERYTHING – HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE!?!?!?!"

You mean to tell me that Patrick was wrong that If I save all that money from rent, I would be able to buy the house in cash and come out way ahead? Patrick is a fine example that strategy is disastrous and burn that buy/rent calculator as it's a buy in the ghetto calculator.

Out of curiosity, have the gatling gun shacks in west Oakland being scooped up by overseas investors too?

To be fair, the feds changed the rules on Patrick.
He 'woulda coulda shoulda' been right, had all those bailouts, law chages, foreclosure help, harp, hamp, CA save your home, etc not been put in place.

The new rules will not go away. It takes 3 years now to foreclose in CA, it was 11-12 monthes pre 07.

In some ways, patrick WAS correct. For example it was thought house prices long term could only be at 'what the average occupant can afford to pay'.
HOWEVER this was ammended by the feds via ZIRP+mananging supply heavily into "House prices will only go to what the average occupant can afford to pay.....IN RENT TO A HEDGEFUND LANDLORD".

People are buying up crapshacks and condos to get 2-3% cap rates. Tons of money chasing rentals now. the 'mortgage market' is no longer the determinant of RE prices as much as 'the rental market'. So for the 'next crash' we need HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT to crash RE and not much else would do it.

SFace says

You mean to tell me that Patrick was wrong that If I save all that money from rent, I would be able to buy the house in cash and come out way ahead? Patrick is a fine example that strategy is disastrous and burn that buy/rent calculator as it's a buy in the ghetto calculator.

Well, if you invested the difference in the stock market starting in 2008, how much money would you have today?

Well, if you invested the difference in the stock market starting in 2008, how much money would you have today?

----------------

A big bank WFC
A big US automaker F
A big "tech" AAPL
A big grocer KR

Had anyone put their house savings, down payment from when patrick started the site ten years ago, they could afford to buy as nice a piece of American real estate as they'd like. Maybe not in SF, but what idiots give a fuck. Theres literally millions of better places to live

Save money, what is that? Some kind of cabalistic ritual?

Call it Crazy says

The seller's approval means NOTHING on a short sale, nada, zip.... It just means a contract was signed, but the amount means nothing. The bank determines the selling price along with any additional fees they want to tack on.

At this point I'm not sure what we're arguing. I've already posted how the process works. The seller accepts an offer and submits it to the bank for their approval. Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

the seller’s lender (or lenders, if there is more than one mortgage) has to approve the sale before you can close.

Do you even read the links you post? Once again, if you knew ANYTHING about the housing market, you would have known this!!

And that's what I've said all along. The seller accepts the offer and submits it to the bank for their approval. The bank doesn't accept the offer. It approves the short sale.

You said the bank accepts the offer which is technically incorrect. The bank approves the short sale. That was my only point.

This sad thread sums up the whole of the housing bubble/patrick.net bubble sitter blogoshpere.

Its over, no more declines in house prices will allowed going forward on any large scale, or nationally, or ever in coastal cali prime areas.

The bubble is back and this time its not going to deflate, my advice to the OP is to adopt his children out to some family that was lucky enough to buy in the good school district before 2012, or after 2008, but not in 2006 as they may still be underwater, but 2003 and earlier is OK, anytime in the early 90's is the best of course, but not 88-90 (as that was a bubble year) but of course 86 and earlier they would be set, unless they bought on the east side of the freeway, as that is now a ghetto.

Its really crazy now in coastal cali, at least the good news is people with children are fleeing the state. The bad news is the people replacing them have even more children....

My mistake--I shouldn't have responded to you. So, I won't after this one. Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

You said the bank accepts the offer which is technically incorrect.

No, I never said that, you're making things up now?

Call it Crazy says

The owner doesn't accept anything. It's the bank that determines the final sale price on a short sale.

The owner accepts the offer.

Call it Crazy says

and I said, the owner doesn't accept anything, he just signs the contract

What kind of nonsense is this. The buyer submits an offer and the owner accepts it. The signature is documentation of the acceptance. The bank approves it.

Call it Crazy says

Call it Crazy says

The bank determines the selling price along with any additional fees they want to tack on.

Once again, if you knew ANYTHING about the housing market, you would have known this!!

Again--technically, this isn't correct. The bank either accepts or denies the offer. In reality, the bank will often tell the owner or realtor what the minimum they will accept, but that doesn't change the actual order of events.

Think of it this way--the bank doesn't own the house so it cannot accept an offer for purchasing it. Only the owner can.

I want some mother fucking apologies from you azzhole bubble bears so I can resell it at 100% profit to the OP!!!!
COUGH ME UP AN APOLOGY NOW Mr Call It Crazy!!!

I hope the OP didn't load up on gold and oil in 08 with the proceeds of his house sale (terrible year to sell it too).
Please OP, post some more of your situation, like what city is you at?

The first step is to repent and admit that renting is not sticking it to the man, but instead that the landlord is part of the establishment. The second step is to acknowledge that good schools are a form of status symbol that results it rat race behavior akin to people buying certain brands to demonstrate success and/or fertility and they inevitably overpay. The focus should be on value and lowest long terms costs for the quality. What has happened is that for the most part rental parity has occurred due to rising rents not falling house prices and a lot of people were blindsided by this.

My advice, take your wife on a few dates. Date night helps a lot with relationship issues. That and talking with Her and rubbing her feet. Try that first. A United partnership is your first priority. Divorce will spell poverty for all parties.

Rents just go up and up and up for reasons that have nothing to do with the average, existing resident's ability to pay. It doesn't make sense, but fighting it doesn't either. At the end of the day, people who continue to drink the Kool Aid that says that real estate should only ever rise-- are right. It doesn't matter what mathematical model you hold up that disproves it. The Kool Aid drinkers are right because history says so. There is never going to be a time when you are going to be able to sweep in with your little down payment and scoop up a coastal California property for pennies on the dollar. The only people who got to take advantage of that brief scenario were NOT people who were financing the property to get a good deal on a place for them and their families to live. The people who got to take advantage of the momentary collapse were those who paid cash for the sole purpose of an immediate return. You won't ever get to the other side of this by complaining about how the rules aren't fair. You have to figure out how to play within the reality that exists... coastal California houses cost more than you can easily afford; coastal California houses sell on a global market; financing almost always means you will pay top dollar for the property; renting just means that you are paying someone who isn't a bank a lot of money; and many more I'm forgetting right now. Either accept the rules and play; or fight and wait for the elusive optimal buying opportunity that never seems to arrive.

Or just wait forever essentially, like me, banking a few thousand a month in savings on rent that was and is way cheaper than owning the same small house on a cash flow basis.

It's been a fine ride and I regret nothing since I was pretty diligent about saving and investing all that money. Seems to have come out about the same financially as owning. So they got the appreciation, but I got the savings and stock market gains.

And when you retire or move elsewhere @patrick you'll be able to afford the house of your dreams. The Bay Area is completely crazy, and an anomaly among real estate.

Or just wait forever essentially, like me, banking a few thousand a month in savings on rent that was and is way cheaper than owning the same small house on a cash flow basis.

It's been a fine ride and I regret nothing since I was pretty diligent about saving and investing all that money. Seems to have come out about the same financially as owning. So they got the appreciation, but I got the savings and stock market gains.

Most people don't and can't save. They can't even help charging up their credit cards.
Stocks outperform real estate when inflation is falling. Vice Versa when inflation is steadily rising.

Call it Crazy says

We're not getting any appreciation here, and I knew that was going to be the case based on the direction of the market here. But, I took the money I was going to put into the house, and instead of getting 0% appreciation on it with it tied up in the house, I got a sub 4% mortgage, and put the money in my Vanguard account. It was up 14% last year. Plus, I get the MID and high property tax deduction on my taxes. My mortgage payment is same as what my rent payment was.

So, all in all, I'm not at mercy to a landlord and can do what I want on my property, and making money owning versus renting.

Why aren't you getting appreciation? Is the population declining?

bgamall4 says

but I got the savings and stock market gains.

Take your profits.

Don't take your profits.

bgamall4 says

I have been praying that if there is not a single righteous man in NYC that it would fall into the ocean.

I have bad news for you.

man this thread really strikes a nerve.

jerry fucking brown. what an asshole. his vision of a high-density low-environmental-impact public-transportation society is so fucking out of sync with they way americans (especially those with children) want to live. the nerve of these pieces of progressive shit to use environmental issues as justification for essentially a war on middle class suburbia. there is so much land to build on here. they are out of their fucking minds, putting smelt fish over the basic needs of humans.

who will stop this madness? stop voting for these assholes. and they're flat wrong about the environment - droughts come and go here regardless of "modern climate change." all they are doing is creating feudalism and giving the best zip codes to the very rich while supporting the most welfare recipients per state in the nation.

bgamall4 says

Strategist says

bgamall4 says

I have been praying that if there is not a single righteous man in NYC that it would fall into the ocean.

I have bad news for you.

There isn't one is there?

Unless you consider Zionists as righteous.

bgamall4 says

I don't. They are the least righteous people on earth. And they are multiracial with some of the most wicked Zionists being non Jewish like Cheney.

What about radical Islamists? Are they righteous?

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

Why aren't you getting appreciation?

Not all markets are inflated like CA... It's the state of NJ... no jobs, no wage increases, high taxes, you know, destroyed by liberal controlled government...

It's not those damn libruls. California is full of those evil people.
It's the weather.
Listen to me......If you really want to give Dan a hard time move to Florida. :) The future is there. California and the rest of the Sunbelt is good too, but Florida has limited land with an expanding population. You cannot go wrong there, with the prices still cheap. It's now or never.

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

California and the rest of the Sunbelt is good too

Nice guy, you want to force me to clean the pool 12 months of the year instead of the 4 months I do here...

That's what your wife told me she wants you to do. Clean the pool 12 months a year. PS. I did not tell her most homes here don't have a pool, because the lots are so small.

My word, what comes over people when they can remain annonymous and insult people remotely? You know who you are and should be ashamed of yourselves. Please ask yourself, if you met these people in person would I be such an arrogant arsehole....? Really??

JasonM,
I do not wish you any bad luck....

unless you vote Republican or Democratic.

Barney_Franks says:" Please ask yourself, if you met these people in person would I be such an arrogant arsehole....? Really??"
I do a very good job of being an ASSHOLE when pointing out reality & peoples stupid mistakes.

If your wife is worth a shit, she'll realize that you did the best you could with the info you had. The kids will be fine, and your life isn't over.

'cause you're fuckin stupid...

JasonM says

If we have to move, her worst fear is realized. She will have lost all confidence in my judgement and I have compromised my kids education. After a few years away, I come back to the bubble sites for consolation and no one is left – all the wise voices who told me to wait are long gone. I waited for FUCKING YEARS and NOW I AM LOSING EVERYTHING – HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE!?!?!?!

It's all Patnet's fault!

Blame the messneger!!!!

Pat you lowgrade son of a bitch!

You could just live in another place where rent is not $4,000. Plenty of people make that choice.

There is a bubble now in rental market. It's happening in LA too, just like Bay Area, but on smaller scale. Rentals are turned over (where not rent controlled), tenants flipped for higher paying once through price increases. Greed is putting this nation again yet into another stranglehold. It's a painful shame.

All that money flowing into rentals, not into real investment such as stocks or bonds.

Your best bet, is find another place.