patrick.net

Strategist says

Home purchases will boom like crazy, just wait and see.

No on that either, seasonality kicked already, it helps those who are in contract now... but the low rate velocity has been totally debunked in this cycle

Even 2016 purchase application data is only back to 1998 levels where rates were 4% plus higher

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Home purchases will boom like crazy, just wait and see.

No on that either, seasonality kicked already, it helps those who are in contract now... but the low rate velocity has been totally debunked in this cycle

Even 2016 purchase application data is only back to 1998 levels where rates were 4% plus higher

Lets make a sportsman's bet.
I say home sales will hit multi year highs for the US and OC. - 2016
Home prices will hit a double digit increase in OC - 2016

Strategist says

I say home sales will hit multi year highs for the US and OC. - 2016

That isn't saying much considering how low sales are at.. all you need is a 5.30 total sale beat for existing homes and over 500K in new homes

Heats month in terms of total volume for applications come in 2nd week of Jan - 1st week of May, after that seasonality kicks in

You will see a boost in refinance application but.. housing is a process, no 1 week push for people to buy a home that were never looking to buy...

Hence why the heat months are the most important for total home sales, that was positive this year up 25% when it mattered

Logan Mohtashami says

That isn't saying much considering how low sales are at.. all you need is a 5.30 total sale beat for existing homes and over 500K in new homes

I'll be thrilled with 3.5

Strategist says

I'll be thrilled with 3.5

I am still waiting for the MBA index to break 300 on the 4 week moving average, then we can get back to 1999 demand

Wow! Yes with May's 0.6% growth in ECI and 0.2% growth in CPI I'm sure the Fed will raise rates any day now. It was a narrow miss last time, so now with the Brexit, money fleeing into bonds/treasuries and even gold, it looks like we will need to cool this bad boy down. (end sarcasm)

Economic engine for the recovery has been stuck in idle, low flat growth, and the nationalist populist barbarians haven't gotten to participate in the recovery. They are pissed off, and at the gates.

Logan, please post them some of your graphs, and make them understand. They are about to eat my 401K and much much more.

Rew says

Yes with May's 0.6% growth in ECI

Did you just use ECI... eekkksss..... So he has called 2 recession back in 2011 and in 2015 and his own index went against him

Here is a common theme for Americans recession

World economic problems will eventual hit the U.S. shores

Just a penny for this bad thesis since 2011...

It is very true, the major world economies are having many issues, France, Germany, Japan, China, Brazil... etc etc and now the U.K.

We are simply too big and to strong of an economy to have an imported recession...

The world is relying on us to dig them out of a recession.

Strategist says

The world is relying on us to dig them out of a recession.

We are always playing Atlas

So embarrassing ... Europe... since 2011.. one drama to another .... and now their demographics are going to get bad... France declares a Economic State of Emergency and are having riots due to labor laws

F*_+@#)$# pathetic ....

Logan Mohtashami says

We are simply too big and to strong of an economy to have an imported recession...

Yes we have our own recessions every 6-10 years. Last one was 8 years ago.
Maybe we can't be pulled into someone else's ditch but we can be nudged into our own?

You know, butterflies creating hurricanes and all that.

Heraclitusstudent says

You know, butterflies creating hurricanes and all that.

Which is created by a supply & demand imbalance ( over investment) thesis ... which we really don't have in this cycle outside of oil, which we handled relatively well

Also, mature economies have a lot general term infrastructure built out, so with a growing labor force, you obviously need more building, but America, Japan, and Europe are old but America does have the labor force growth advantage due to immigration build up over decades

Heraclitusstudent says

Yes we have our own recessions every 6-10 years. Last one was 8 years ago.

Maybe we can't be pulled into someone else's ditch but we can be nudged into our own?

You know, butterflies creating hurricanes and all that.

We haven't fully recovered from the last recession, and now the damn Brexit crap bits us in the ass.

Then there is Japan!

Logan, tell me straight up why you think global bond yields have declined to zero in a long term trend starting around 30 years ago.

--------------

How about starting 50 years ago. What were the long term effects of the very high rates that preceded the 30 ( hell now almost 40) years of decline?

Rates, yields and inflation move hand in hand and you can add the dollar to this as well

YoY wage growth as well

One more item, as I noted in the article, It's not a domestic issue in terms of the events that brings down yields to these levels

Also, however, the taper spike was a over crowded trade that way haywire on the technical levels and the 10 year really shouldn't have be at 3.04%

If the 40 year goes negative, throwing a party

Buy bonds they only ever go up in price

#storyofmylife

Gentlemen this is America... the world can't compete with us... since 2011 we have show we are kicking the worlds ass and .... Oh Lord.. just wait

Demographics is a plus for us and Europe, China and Japan and going to Bigger elderly stage !

As always this is all a set up for the next decade.. I am just letting everyone know why they're wrong about America now..

So, saying I told you so, just won't cut it in the next cycle

#USA

The article itself was a smack down against the world vs U.S.A.

Since 2011 we have multiple European Crisis events, Japan has had issues and China has slowed down

But 2016

Retail sales cycle highs, home sales cycle highs and car sales over 17,000,000

We are the best in the world!

Even with a oil and commodity crash .. Nothing.. Unemployment claims never got over 300K

Marvel at what we have done as a country while the world has had many issues

Either we've had disinflation for 35 years, or rates dont track inflation. Rates have been falling for 35 years, this is an indisputable fact. So do yous think rates have bottomed?

My 2007 thesis , that rates had to continue lower is still in tact. Now, rates around the world are either zero or even negative, and i see no mechanism to buck this trend

you keep on adding other countries to this discussion

--------

This is a global economy. Look at your thread title

errc says

Either we've had disinflation for 35 years, or rates dont track inflation. Rates have been falling for 35 years, this is an indisputable fact. So do yous think rates have bottomed?

My 2007 thesis , that rates had to continue lower is still in tact. Now, rates around the world are either zero or even negative, and i see no mechanism to buck this trend

A full economic rebound will buck the trend.

Total growth and YoY growth or declines 2 different things

errc says

Look at your thread title

and the U.S. economy

Guys we won... we kicked and are kicking everyone's @$$ for a reason

I see. The New-New New Economy

Where the mountainous pile of debts begins a new phase of being rolled over at ever greater costs

I get it that this a slightly tilted liberal economic view you guys have

Your sentence structure are very similar to my facebook MMT friends

Who have also been wrong about America

I am giving you guys a different non ideological take on economics

Don't bet against America going forward... other countries to talk bad about... the best is coming!

What happens next?

errc says

What happens next?

Enjoy a booming stock market, and real estate prices.

errc says

What happens next?

We will have a recession at some point, but we will also have better demographics, unlike 2007 where it peaked

Prime age labor force growth was good in 1980's and 1990's all this obsession over who was president is crazy, demographics run the show

get it that this a slightly tilted liberal economic view you guys have

----------------

Thats funny. Its not every day that I'm accused of not seeing things for how they are, because of my liberal bias.

Probably because nothing could be further from the truth. All i see is numbers and math, theres no political bent clouding my judgement or assessment abilities

errc says

Thats funny. Its not every day that I'm accused of not seeing things for how they are, because of my liberal bias

Liberal people = deflationary spiral

Conservative people = inflationary spiral

I am generalizing a bit

But its' the MMT view vs the Gold Bug view

I 100% believe both have been terribly wrong and don't understand demographic economics

My point is to only show why... why have the economic bears been wrong about America and why has all the economic drama happened outside the U.S. since 2011.. X out the fiscal bluff nonsense here

On another note

Bond market being flat today is amazing action! on U.S. 10 year

and on currencies .. anyone here taking a vacation in the next 2 months?

Going to Mexico and staying at the 4 seasons in Punta Mita and they're pushing currency exchange on their website! Awesome

http://www.fourseasons.com/puntamita/